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BubbaKrumpz

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
3,403
Yay Area
Hi, haven't been following the news recently but I've been seeing a lot about the CDC confirming the death rate to be at .2% overall. Now this is all shared by random meme pages I follow on Instagram that don't supply any source. I did find this article though https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html
Is this a revised estimate or is this the percentage going forward?

wanted to add that this seems to be peddled by a lot of right wing posts online as well when I searched. Just wanted to get some clarity on it.
 
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Joni

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,508
Hi, haven't been following the news recently but I've been seeing a lot about the CDC confirming the death rate to be at .2% overall. Now this is all shared by random meme pages I follow on Instagram that don't supply any source. I did find this article though https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html
Is this a revised estimate or is this the percentage going forward?

wanted to add that this seems to be peddled by a lot of right wing posts online as well when I searched. Just wanted to get some clarity on it.
If the death rate is 0,2%, then 1 in 500 people die.
That means with Belgium's 9.312 deaths, 4.656.000 people have been infected.
Or that means 2 out of every 5 persons in the entire country.
Despite sample tests showing only about 6% of the population have antibodies. Only about 700.000 people thus.
So 1,3% is a more realistic death rate.
 

sweetmini

Member
Jun 12, 2019
3,921
If the death rate is 0,2%, then 1 in 500 people die.
That means with Belgium's 9.312 deaths, 4.656.000 people have been infected.
Or that means 2 out of every 5 persons in the entire country.
Despite sample tests showing only about 6% of the population have antibodies. Only about 700.000 people thus.
So 1,3% is a more realistic death rate.

In France we are at 0.5%, both with and without treatment.
 

Phife Dawg

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,049
The initial spread here in Germany was from a business traveler from Wuhan and a carnival party. I think it's quite safe to assume the initial spread came from people travelling to Wuhan and back, that's where the virus originated after all. So what certainly contributed is globalization and people travelling for various reasons but to pin it on the jetset is a bit simplistic imo.

Nope, Spain is dropping theirs on July 1st to allow foreign tourism, Greece is much the same etc.

Basically any country that has a large tourism industry is inviting international tourism back from early July.
Yeah this will be interesting to watch since they probably won't be as strict as SK in regards to tracing. That means contact tracing will become next to impossible. It's a bit of a gamble imo.

One of the cities of my home state opened jogging lanes in parks to exercise, with masks and respecting social distancing.

But they're challenging the state orders of keeping parks closed, and now the director of a hospital is saying that joggers are engaging in high risk of infection because of "air velocity" and "the direction of the wind" affecting saliva and breathing particles.

I thought it was okay for people to jog and walk outside in a park? They're saying that the minimum social distancing for doing that is like 30 feet apart from other people. Is that the case for other guidelines on outdoor exercise?
Jogging should be pretty safe. I run a lot and lots of people were running here. As long as you don't sneeze openly and spit around it should be a pretty safe activity.
 

Joni

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,508
In France we are at 0.5%, both with and without treatment.

Estimation for antibodies in France is 4,4%, so the death rate would be about 1%.

The initial spread here in Germany was from a business traveler from Wuhan and a carnival party. I think it's quite safe to assume the initial spread came from people travelling to Wuhan and back, that's where the virus originated after all. So what certainly contributed is globalization and people travelling for various reasons but to pin it on the jetset is a bit simplistic imo.
Indeed, jetset doesn't travel to Wuhan of all places. These are high-level white collar workers, but still white collar workers.
 

sweetmini

Member
Jun 12, 2019
3,921
The initial spread here in Germany was from a business traveler from Wuhan and a carnival party. I think it's quite safe to assume the initial spread came from people travelling to Wuhan and back, that's where the virus originated after all. So what certainly contributed is globalization and people travelling for various reasons but to pin it on the jetset is a bit simplistic imo.

Yeah it's just that modern world facilitates the spread. Global business practices with business trips, "reasonably cheap" air travel (of course if in your country the wage is 30USD/month, that's not the case), ease of organisation for large events with invited people from abroad...
It was bound to happen anyway.
One of our first cluster was a British businessman who was back from a Singapore business trip then went skying in the Alps.

When you start having mass benefits from being a one-hearth society you have to get the drawbacks, it's the deal.
No need to point it to a wealth range, a religion or an ethnicity, It's just the world economy and what comes with it.
We fought it by going hard back to closed society... and it's unsustainable since this is the train lane that goes off the cliff because we destroyed the old bridge.
 

greepoman

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,967
Hi, haven't been following the news recently but I've been seeing a lot about the CDC confirming the death rate to be at .2% overall. Now this is all shared by random meme pages I follow on Instagram that don't supply any source. I did find this article though https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html
Is this a revised estimate or is this the percentage going forward?
It's not set in stone at all. The death rate will vary quite a bit depending the demographic makeup, etc. of the area. It's probably more useful to look at death rates for your age group (over 80 is like 15-20%).

Also their death rate is calculated assuming a large number of untested infections. 0.2% would give you 50 million infected (100k/.002). That's 15% of the US. So far antibody testing has only shown NY to be that high a % so I have to really question that number if it's their actual guess.
 

Deleted member 5334

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,815
So I was just casually checking the comments on one of the Erie News Now articles (I know, big mistake), and a Doctor chimed in kinda pissed about how our city is not in the Red status.

Someone, who clearly is not a doctor chimed in and their response is... good lord.

unknown.png


I can't fucking deal with this shit. Holy crap.
 

squeakywheel

Member
Oct 29, 2017
6,103
I don't know about you folks but I can't buy insurance for trips that will cover hospitalization costs for covid. Until that is allowed I won't even contemplate going anywhere far for trips.
 

Joni

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,508
Belgium: 23 new deaths, lowest since 23th March, 16 in hospitals and 7 in retirement homes. Death total is now 9.334, meaning we could remain underneath 10K if things keep evolving as such. 39 new hospitalisations, and 23 discharges. That is a Sunday number, so it means nothing. Beds used has dropped though, to 1.302. Intensive care has a slight drop as well, 2 less.
 

Ashdroid

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,320
I sent my mom a link showing that covid cases are increasing in her area, and she replies that it's "not real serious, more like a flu bug" ... I just cannot. How are people still parroting this bs?
 

Minsc

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,137
US numbers seem to have hit another all time low, 505 deaths yesterday. Previous lowest I've ever seen was the 617 the day before.

What if it doesn't go back to 2k+/day or whatever the peak was? Maybe things are getting better? Or maybe it's just the weekend, but still, it's the lowest weekend we've ever had to date.
 

sweetmini

Member
Jun 12, 2019
3,921
Estimation for antibodies in France is 4,4%, so the death rate would be about 1%.

edit: i removed my previous comment, some reporting had been botched
Anyway, the rates reported as reaction to the Lancet study were based on hospital data and gave the 0.5%, that's why i had this in mind.

We'll get a better picture when it's finished.
 
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GCX

Member
Oct 27, 2017
484
Finland:
Total cases: 6 628 (+ 29 in the last 24h)
In hospital: 95 (-9)
ICU usage: 11 (-7)
Deaths: 312 (+4)

The hospitalized number is below 100 for the first time since March which is of course great.

This graph (number of ICU patients / million people) illustrates well that there's been a big drop in ICU patients in every key hospital area. The green one includes Helsinki capital area.

LY5Ypio.jpg
 
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CortexVortex

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
4,074
Gyms and cinemas back from tomorrow on (Hamburg). Looking forward to a proper workout but I fear it's gonna be overcrowded / I won't even get in.
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,010
So, today is my first in the office since March. It's voluntary and only 30% of the office can be here at a time, so we're split in 3 teams with allocated weeks when you can come. Masks are mandatory in all the common spaces (so practically whenever you get up from your desk) and half of the desks are now "restricted" to ensure the distance. Anyhow, I think this is my last day in the office until it's mandatory again because there is really no added value being here and I actually focus better at home.

Also on Sunday was the first time I went to a restaurant with my SO in months. It was pretty crowded, but again mandatory masks (for the waiters too) until you sit down and the tables were more than 1.5 m apart so it never felt unsafe.

Edit: Vienna, Austria.
 

LordDraven

Banned
Jan 23, 2019
2,257
So, today is my first in the office since March. It's voluntary and only 30% of the office can be here at a time, so we're split in 3 teams with allocated weeks when you can come. Masks are mandatory in all the common spaces (so practically whenever you get up from your desk) and half of the desks are now "restricted" to ensure the distance. Anyhow, I think this is my last day in the office until it's mandatory again because there is really no added value being here and I actually focus better at home.

Also on Sunday was the first time I went to a restaurant with my SO in months. It was pretty crowded, but again mandatory masks (for the waiters too) until you sit down and the tables were more than 1.5 m apart so it never felt unsafe.
Why even sit in a restaurant? Pointless
 

LFMartins86

Member
Nov 7, 2017
2,180
US numbers seem to have hit another all time low, 505 deaths yesterday. Previous lowest I've ever seen was the 617 the day before.

What if it doesn't go back to 2k+/day or whatever the peak was? Maybe things are getting better? Or maybe it's just the weekend, but still, it's the lowest weekend we've ever had to date.
Weekend and holidays always have lower numbers but the numbers usually rise in the following days as the unaccounted deaths from those days are added.
 

JetmanJay

Member
Nov 1, 2017
3,507
Looking at my social media this morning and WAY too many motherfuckers went on trips and were walking around crowds of other people without masks of any sort. People who I thought actually gave a damn about this sort of thing.
I guess America has collectively decided to just stick its head in the sand for issues relating to COVID now?
 

CesareNorrez

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,530
Was this article, How the coronavirus spreads in those everyday places we visit, from the Salt Lake Tribune shared?

It looks at reports and results from various studies on community spread. Not too much is surprising, crowded bars and clubs, self serve buffets, sporting venues and stadiums are really bad, and more. But surprisingly groceries stores seem to be okay due to how people compose themselves by wearing masks and getting out fast. Schools are inconclusive because of how and when we shutdown and how ones that have reopened operate.

Obviously much more analysis needs to be done, but the main take away is of course social distancing and keeping your mouth from letting particles out.
 

BFIB

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,701
My FB feed, you'd never know a pandemic was going on. Add to that, my extended family is having a BBQ this coming weekend to celebrate a graduation. I declined and now am getting shit on for not accepting. Told them flat out, I refuse to live in their fantasy land that this is somehow over.
 
Oct 29, 2017
1,979

CesareNorrez

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,530
Ya that's the annoying thing (the lag time) about this already annoying virus... I feel like this weekend was the first true test here in the US, but we won't know the impact for a couple weeks.

We kept having Holidays, like Easter and Mother's Day, where we thought "This is it", but there has not been a wave, it seems more localized. So I'm guessing we won't really see the infected rate go back up until Late June or early July. We seemed to do a pretty good job of minimizing the spread in the US, once we took it seriously and a great deal of damage had already been done, but with people getting lax it's going to take a some more big events for it to get back to a noticeable trend up, especially as the hotspots move from the cities to the rural areas and back again.

I'm imagining a similar scenario to mid March (In the US) where things seemed okay but suddenly everything shuts down. I don't think it'll be as bad as then because we know what to expect and understand what it takes. Not that there won't be plenty of areas that see resistance.
 

Ernest

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,512
So.Cal.
there is going to be a lag, if there were infected in the group, I'd say in 2-3 weeks
And it'll be spread out over 2+ weeks - some will show symptoms as soon as a day or two, and some after 15 days, and everywhere in between.
So it'll be tough to point to a single event or outing. I hope rates don't go up, but I don't see how they wont.
 
Sep 14, 2019
3,031
Looks like we're being prepared to go back to the office.

We've been told we can keep working from home if we don't feel safe, but I wonder how long I can keep saying that to keep WFH before they tell us we HAVE to go back to the office.
 

Beje

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,772
Looks like we're being prepared to go back to the office.

We've been told we can keep working from home if we don't feel safe, but I wonder how long I can keep saying that to keep WFH before they tell us we HAVE to go back to the office.

Try to stretch it as much as possible. The longer people see that "nothing happens" from WFH, the longer you'll be able to do it without (almost) anybody raising an eyebrow. That's how we went (pre-pandemic) at my work from WFH 1-2 days per week to almost unlimited.
 
Oct 28, 2017
13,691
US numbers seem to have hit another all time low, 505 deaths yesterday. Previous lowest I've ever seen was the 617 the day before.

What if it doesn't go back to 2k+/day or whatever the peak was? Maybe things are getting better? Or maybe it's just the weekend, but still, it's the lowest weekend we've ever had to date.
Yea I remember seeing models calling for 2k deaths per day. Deaths are trending down, not up and cases are flat nationwide
 
Jan 29, 2018
9,412
My company's work from home recommendation was just extended to August 3rd. Previously it was June 1 so that's a bit of a relief.

I've only been paying attention to the daily # of new cases in Ohio so I didn't notice the number of daily national deaths trending down, if that's true. I wonder why that is if the rate of new cases seems flat.
 

New Donker

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,364
Corona took my uncle last month, and now my grandmother is in the hospital and it's not looking great. Fuck this virus.
 

Dreaver

Member
Oct 27, 2017
541
Looking at my social media this morning and WAY too many motherfuckers went on trips and were walking around crowds of other people without masks of any sort. People who I thought actually gave a damn about this sort of thing.
I guess America has collectively decided to just stick its head in the sand for issues relating to COVID now?
I think the chance to get infected outside is extremely low, even if you are close to each other. So it's better people are outside instead of inside.
 

Dany1899

Member
Dec 23, 2017
4,219
Italy's update:
+397 new positive cases (total 230555)
+78 new deaths (total 32955)
+2677 new recoveries (total 144658)
 

Hero_of_the_Day

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
17,380
Had an acquaintance who is a nurse text me last night to ask if I'd come help him assemble a new gaming PC. I told him I wasn't comfortable going to someones house. To which he responded by telling me a couple of his co-workers have had covid and it's just like having a mild cold. Fucking Republicans, man...