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Nintendo FY3/2020 Q4 Earnings Release, Switch Hardware 55.77M LTD
- Thread starter ggx2ac
- Start date
Their software output has been untouchable this entire generation. Many of the best games (and most accessible games) ever are on this system.
The hardware isn't fancy but it's snappy and it gets shit done.
I hope they take the lesson of TAKING TIME on software dev/no rushing into next gen, whenever that happens. It has made every Switch release fucking golden.
The hardware isn't fancy but it's snappy and it gets shit done.
I hope they take the lesson of TAKING TIME on software dev/no rushing into next gen, whenever that happens. It has made every Switch release fucking golden.
It is the most normal, very few people dedicate time to the post-game of any game.
But still this isn't a good comparison. PS4 launched in November so here the PS4 counts 1 more month and happens to be freaking december.
Monthly aligned the Switch is over the PS4.
I barely have time to finish the games I start... Spending 100hs in a game is impossible for me. Even with the Switch.
But even if I had the time, I don't think that that's something I would enjoy.
How does it look comparing by months? Won't PS4 "next" December be enough to leap over Switch again? It's what has been happening every year with this discussion until now :P
Switch at the end of this March is at the same place as PS4 at the end of that December, so it's already past that December.
I think it's actually behind PS4 a bit but that could change probably at the end of the next quarter.
So with full FY results in I have pieced together what the Switch has done by quarter for Europe and Other since Q5.
Europe: As of Q5 the LTD was 4.55 million (Q5 ended March 31st, 2018). From there:
Q6 4.55 +.31
Q7 4.86 +.88
Q8 5.74 +2.77
Q9 8.51 +.59
Q10 9.1 +.5
Q11 9.6 +1.26
Q12 10.86 +3.02
Q13 13.88 +.55
Other: As of Q5 the LTD was 1.72 million
Q6 1.72 +.4
Q7 2.12 +.34
Q8 2.46 + .63
Q9 3.09 + .32
Q10 3.41 +.28
Q11 3.69 +.48
Q12 4.17 +1.15
Q13 5.32 +.46
Europe: As of Q5 the LTD was 4.55 million (Q5 ended March 31st, 2018). From there:
Q6 4.55 +.31
Q7 4.86 +.88
Q8 5.74 +2.77
Q9 8.51 +.59
Q10 9.1 +.5
Q11 9.6 +1.26
Q12 10.86 +3.02
Q13 13.88 +.55
Other: As of Q5 the LTD was 1.72 million
Q6 1.72 +.4
Q7 2.12 +.34
Q8 2.46 + .63
Q9 3.09 + .32
Q10 3.41 +.28
Q11 3.69 +.48
Q12 4.17 +1.15
Q13 5.32 +.46
This is what happens when you deliver a great piece of hardware and support it with lots of exclusive games people want to play. Well deserved.
Also holy shit at AC sales!! Love that game
Also holy shit at AC sales!! Love that game
Huh interesting. I've always been the type to do the post game and try to find some shinies and complete my Pokédex, so I figured that would have more interest since there's so much to do
whoops... the code is removing changes. It's Mario Kart 8 Deluxe numbers - total is in Japan, and the other two numbers are pushed to one column over.
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This is only during this past fiscal year. I don't think Rocket League has such great legs on the switch, I might be wrong though
Yea Switch should be over the PS4 after April but i think PS4's january+february might be stronger than May+June. I remember that year the Gold edition PS4 came out and i think it was the year of Crash also, which boosted the sales for the PS4 significantly in June. So i do think it will pass over the switch for a little again. The test will be this FY. If Switch can do over their 19 million projection, i think the Switch has chances to keep the pace of the PS4 lifetime and finish close to it over or under.
They specified we are roughly at the mid-life of the Switch. I really think there will be another model or something soon enough. There is multiple huge titles on the way too and a price cut will be coming one day. They will start putting a lot more money on advertising this year to reach a new crowd of non big gamers. I think this means if there is no price cut, we will see more bundle and great deals for BF and the holidays.
They specified we are roughly at the mid-life of the Switch. I really think there will be another model or something soon enough. There is multiple huge titles on the way too and a price cut will be coming one day. They will start putting a lot more money on advertising this year to reach a new crowd of non big gamers. I think this means if there is no price cut, we will see more bundle and great deals for BF and the holidays.
Most of my acquaintances who play Pokemon are too lazy to even move their old Pokemon from 3DS to Pokemon Home.
After 13 Quarters on the market NSW 55.77mil and PS4 57.10mil (1.33mil gap)
PS4
2.9mil Q4 (60.0mil)
3.3mil Q1 (63.3mil)
4.2mil Q2 (67.5mil)
9.0mil Q3 (76.5mil)
so let's say Nintendo does around 21mil again this FY, then it'll pull ahead
NSW
3.93mil Q1 (59.7mil)
3.90mil Q2 (63.6mil)
10.60mil Q3 (74.2mil)
2.70mil Q4 (76.
So Nintendo is forecasting a 19m Switch FY21, what are people's thoughts on that? Are they low-balling again to break forecast or do you think they are lowballing because they know they won't have a lot of inventory, and or software this year?
I also noted Software forecast is also down to 140M for FY21 from 168.72 in FY20.
I also noted Software forecast is also down to 140M for FY21 from 168.72 in FY20.
I think they're lowballing for a number of reasons but primarily the uncertainty around COVID and the incoming global recession.
I think they specifically mentioned covid & the uncertainty of the impacts it'll have on the economy + the lack of a pokemon/AC caliber game this fiscal year
I think they'll meet their goal or even pass it but they probably just wanna be conservative cause it looks worse if they don't meet it
I've always thought AC could be Nintendo's biggest series if more people who typically don't call themselves "gamers" simply knew about it. Looks like that's starting to happen. Considering my wife and tons of her friends now own a Switch just for AC, the numbers don't surprise me. It's making the rounds on social media in ways most games don't. It also doesn't hurt that it's basically the perfect game to play during a pandemic when you're stuck at home. But the broad appeal of AC can't be overstated.
AC is huge, but I don't see anything topping Mario Kart anytime soon.
Not in one single FY.
That's the only way it would show up on one of these reports.
Last year's forecast was originally 18M hardware and 125M software. These things don't mean a whole lot. And given everything going on, I wouldn't read much into this.
OP
OP
Imo, i think both Q1/Q2 will be between 4-4.5 million. Q3 will be 10-11 million, and Q4 something like 3 million.
So i predict 21-23 million, let's avg that, i'll go with 22 million.
Didn't Nintendo say they want post summer to make up for low shipments now? I think Q1 may be low, like 3M, and 5-6M in Q2 where production is back to full speed. I want to see 25M this fiscal year. Hypothetically, if Japan will do 6M this fiscal year and makes up for 25% of shipments, can NA do 9-10M which is 40% of 24-25M?
Based on sell-through in the US and Japan alone Q1 should be higher than 3M. Considering they had zero inventory at the end of Q4 and are gonna wind up selling close to if not over 1M in April just in the US and Japan.
Whatever we see sold will basically know what shipments are. One of the very rare times we can use this method lol. Japan already sold 300k so far this quarter with GW and the rest of May/June.
Aren't Mario Tennis Aces and Mario Maker 2 the best selling entries in their respective franchises?
Yeap and you can add future paper Mario/fzero/Metroid/star fox/pikmin to that list
Wow I actually didn't realize that. Is it the only franchise with new games (not spin off or port) that came out only on gcn and wiiu? Maybe with the switch it'll expand. I can easily see it doing 3mil
I'll be shocked if Pikmin can crack 3 million. Maybe if they push some kid friendlier modes and the multiplayer.
As long as we get a new one, I'll be happy.
Pikmin 4 should easily do that and Pikmin 3 Deluxe alone should sell around 2m imo.
You forget GC. :D
Simple, they are still not certain about how things will go this year because COVID19, so they are going with more cautious expected numbers,
but they did said that forecast could easily be changed in some next quarters.
Pikmin 3 DX will probably do 2m+, Pikmin 4 could probably do 3m+,
I mean almost every Nintendo franchise is selling better on Switch.
On that note, if we include the GC, their console transitions have been pretty rough. I hope Switch is more of a handheld transition, though their last transition from DS to 3DS saw significant A decline as well due to mobile, pricing, and other factors.
Switch is totally different than any previous home console or handheld, its basically unified Nintendo platform and hybrid,
and Nintendo can't do anything else instead go again with same path and doing Switch 2
Anyone want to get crazy? Animal Crossing shipped 11.77M in 2 weeks, and sell-through was 13.41M after 6 weeks just in US, EU and Japan, so probably close to 15M worldwide. What do you think lifetime sales will be for the system? I'm honestly debating whether it could reach 40M lifetime. This game is just reaching some critical mass where it is breaking out in such a way in the mainstream, more than games like Smash, SMO, and BOTW have, or even than Pokémon Sword/Shield. I think this game could reach unprecedented levels of sales, slotting in close to that 40M mark. Animal Crossing is a very leggy franchise, which helps as well, along with the aforementioned mainstream breakthrough it has had and the great reviews. It's definitely one to watch.
Never in my 2,5 years have I heard collegues talk about games. And today they were talking about the Switch and Animal Crossing. Couldn't believe it.
40m seems insane to think about but somehow it could be possible. I think it should definitely pass 30m but how much higher it goes probably depends on how long it stays this prevalent in the mainstream consciousness.
I was thinking 35M.
12Mish in JP and 3X that globally. I think as we start to get a broader understanding of how DLC/post-launch support plays out we can see if it can replicate the usual AC legs (it needs that to compensate for the much larger opening).
LTD Expectations (+/- 2.5M):
MK8D 45M
ACNH 35M
SSBU 30M
BOTW 28M
SwSh 25M
SMO 23M
Did you catch T-bone fever?
Legs aren't magical unit sales, based on first week/month/quarter performance and the genre of the game. There's people involved here, and at some point, they will simply run out of people who are interested in buying Animal Crossing and/for Switch at a certain price point.
Right now, Animal Crossing is new and therefore has a lot of marketing and internet buzz behind it. Sales are boosted by the stay-at-home restrictions by many governments due to the coronavirus pandemic. While that last thing will definitely make it sell to people who wouldn't otherwise have bought it, it also cuts into the legs of the game, because there's also a percentage of people that has found out about the game now and decided to buy it, whereas under normal circumstances, they would've found out about it later and therefore bought it later. As a result, some sales are added and some other sales are simply moved forward.
I agree with you that Animal Crossing, along with Mario Kart imo, was the biggest potential of any Nintendo series to see sales numbers go through the roof, but I'm not sure where you based that 40M number on. It's the same situation as with T-bone basically. You can throw a big number out there and test your luck, but is it also based on a calculated estimate?