Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT5| - It's in RDNA

[Kschreck]

I feel like the extra GPU power will mostly just go towards 4K resolution and maybe higher framerates for certain games. Not expecting much more if the GPU really is only 8/9tf Navi. I think it will be an incremental upgrade when it comes to actual graphics.

While this is a big upgrade over base consoles, the move from 720p-1080p to 4K will eat up much of that extra power. At least that is my guess.

 

[Chamber]

That guy above said 5700xt is only 10% faster?

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It's 14% faster according to AMD, the 36 CU 8TF RX5700 is on par or slightly better than a reference Vega 64 in game performance.

Delivering Vega 64 performance with 36 CUs is not bad in the slightest. Again, 12.5 TFs worth of gaming performance from a GCN card was considered a win for next gen last month, now it's apparently shit because reasons.

I feel like the extra GPU power will mostly just go towards 4K resolution and maybe higher framerates for certain games. Not expecting much more if the GPU really is only 8/9tf Navi. I think it will be an incremental upgrade when it comes to actual graphics.

While this is a big upgrade over base consoles, the move from 720p-1080p to 4K will eat up much of that extra power. At least that is my guess.

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I suspect Native 4K is not going to be nearly as abundant as people think. Smart upscaling is the future.

 

[Sid]

It's 14% faster according to AMD, the 36 CU 8TF RX5700 is on par or slightly better than a reference Vega 64 in game performance.

Delivering Vega 64 performance with 36 CUs is not bad in the slightest. Again, 12.5 TFs worth of gaming performance from a GCN card was considered a win for next gen last month, now it's apparently shit because reasons.


I suspect Native 4K is not going to be nearly as abundant as people think. Smart upscaling is the future.

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You think we'll get a 10TF GPU next gen?

 

[dotyoureyes]

Oh I remember that and we know why it turned out that way.
Microsoft was all in on more than just gaming and multitasking hence needed 8GB no matter what.
They included Kinect and oversized the console because fear of another RROD.

So MS had to waste die space for ESRAM to compensate for lower DDR3 bandwidth and that ended with no advantage in actual RAM size, because of technology improvements. On top of that they had also the disadvantages in CU count and memory bandwidth.

I just want to know Sony's strategy now, that would be vastly different from their success in this current gen.
And I also want to know how they technically achieve that. Everything is possible, but if you're an insider don't just tell me what's possible. Tell me how you make it possible. Otherwise you leak is not worth much to me.

And at least for Microsoft we got that vison and talk from insiders. For Sony we have nothing.

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LMAo. Yeah we got nothing from Sony, only the LEad Architect announcing BC and high level specs, SSD, Ray Tracing and even a demo with Spiderman about PS5 before MS even announced their console. Posters who are annoyed with Reiners tweets and "Concerned" and trying to dis-credit him kind of says it all really.

Reiner's sources have no weight but MS leakers/execs do? Who have in fact in the past been disingenuous at best, even MS execs were caught embarassing themselves on GAF last gen downplaying the PS4/Xb1 scenario.

 

[AegonSnake]

5700XT already has vapor chamber.

Sizes are mostly irrelevant, cost of transistor is what's relevant, and it is significantly higher on newer processes than it was back on 28nm which PS4 launched on.
Which means that even a chip with the same transistor complexity as launch PS4's APU (the exact same chip essentially) will likely cost more to produce on 7nm right now than it did back at PS4's launch on 28nm.
Which in turn inevitably lead to the need to use *realtively smaller* APUs on PS5 and Xb4 than what PS4 and XBO used at launch to be able to keep the prices at the same position - or at least not blow them up straight to $800.
Which is why I personally don't expect any miracles in next gen APU CU counts. We will be lucky if they'll be considerably higher than what we see in Navi 10 right now. But realistically I don't expect anything more than 48, with 4 of them disabled for better yields probably.

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yeah, i know its using vapor chamber cooling. that explains why they are able to go up all the way to 1.95 ghz. if both consoles are using vapor chamber cooling, this could explain the 1.8 ghz gonzolo max clock. lower, but not that much lower.

I dont think the 7nm chips will cost that much more than the PS4 APU. The entire point of going to 7nm is to reduce costs and space. the PS4 APU cost $100 in a $400 console. There is a very good chance they will be going with a $500 price tag now. Why cant $50 go towards the APU? Most people here think that the SSD will cost the same as HDD, UHD will cost the same as Bluray drive, and RAM will cost the same as GDDR5 did back in 2013. So that means they have an extra $100 to play with and the only new things they need to add are vapor chamber cooling and a bigger APU. Why is that so impossible for a $499 console?

 

[vivftp]

Say what?

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Sony not rolling next gen out to Antarctica confirmed. Arrogant Sony is back!

 

[AegonSnake]

The Radeon RX 580 has a 185W power draw and the Xbox One X didn't even match it's base clocks.

A analogous scenario would be a next gen console having 40 CUs active out of 44 CUs with a clock speed near the base clock of the 180W Radeon RX 5700 (non-XT). That would make for a 7.5 TF card.

Lesson: I would stay away from RX 580 analogies.

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But it came very close. 1172 - 1257 = 85 mhz. thats less than 8%.

And it had 4 MORE CUs. Not fewer. 8 more if you count the 4 disabled ones in the console GPU.

 

[Expy]

Brad Sams has recently stated it's still Microsoft's plan to have the most powerful console.

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Sure, plan, but that doesn't refute that currently, they may not have it as per some journalists' developer sources.

 

[only_fools_&_horses]

Okay one last post, then I have to go.
A person called bdsams , with a real name and job related to the industry, who leaked the digital only Xbox One S in the first place, the Elite V2 controller. The E3 marketing talking points for Project Scarlett.
The next generation Xbox codenames and a whole lot more.

That has a lot more weight than "I heard PS5 is more powerful from someone"

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Bdsams didn't talked with devs at E3 and he called Reiner's tweet BS just because Reiner tweeted: "PS5 is more powerful" and it doesn't fit his narrative. Yeah, Bdsams has more weight. Bdsams is just an MSs PR person and he knows nothing about PS5

 

[GhostTrick]

i dont want to take credit for this but i am totally blanking on which user told me this a few days ago.

But the console APUs have traditionally been able to include more CUs and clocks lowered than the desktop equivalents of these GPUs.

PS4 was based on 7850 which had 16 CUs. PS4 had 20 CUs with 2 disabled.
The Pro was based on the 470 (32 CU) or 480 (36 CU) and yet it had 40 CUs with 2 disabled for a total of 36 CUs.
The X1X was based on the 580 which has 36 CUs, the X1X has 44CUs with 4 disabled for a total of 40 CUs.

They all lowered the clocks like you said. But MS got up 1172 which came very close to the 1257mhz clockspeed of the 580 by using vapor chamber cooling. Both consoles this gen are guaranteed to have vapor chamber or some other form of fancy cooling so they should come pretty close to the Navi 10 clocks WHILE increasing CU counts.

251mm2 + 70mm2 for the CPU is only 311mm2. It makes no sense to settle for an APU that small when Sony went with 350mm2 for the $399 base ps4. MS went with 380mm2 for a $499 console with a $80 kinect camera. Why are we assuming they will not go for 380-400mm2 for a next gen console? 80 mm2 should allow them to add an extra 16-20 CUs. they can lower the clocks but they shouldnt have to if they are using vapor chamber cooling.

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PS4 was based on HD 7870. 20CU with 2 disabled.
The Pro was basically PS4 GPU doubled.
Also, the 1257mhz clockspeed for the 580 is the base clock. Not the boost clock.

Also, there's something you conveniently forget in all your comparisons:
RX 5700 XT is rated at a 225W TBP. HD 7870 was rated at a 175W TDP in it's Ghz edition. RX 580 is at a 185W TBP.

And yet, you imagine to get something with a far bigger CU count ( Like 14 to 20 more CUs when your exemple was PS4 Pro with 4 more CUs and Xbox One X with 4 more CUs too) at comparable clocks despite the fact the TBP is already bigger ?

Btw, RX 580 had a smaller die size than RX 5700 XT. Same for the HD 7870.

I'd be curious to know what you're basically expecting here.

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

Seriously, people still on that? They both have RT hardware.

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It's not been confirmed they do.
A vega 56 can do hardware accelerated raytracing.

 

[EGOMON]

If PS5 has more flops, I could see something like this.

PS5: 40cu @ 1.8Ghz = 9.21TF
Scarlett: 44cu @ 1.6Ghz = 9.01TF

This is assuming PS5 will have a smaller die than Scarlett with less CU's while also going for higher clocks.

The reason behind that is if Sony and MS have the same CU count, there shouldn't be much stopping MS from clocking the GPU up to similar clocks.

I will personally wait for a Kotaku article for confirmation on spec targets but I don't think there should be a sizable gap between both consoles right now. Maybe 8-10% at most.

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Completely off-topic, welfare Minato avatar suits better ;)

 

[dgrdsv]

I dont think the 7nm chips will cost that much more than the PS4 APU. The entire point of going to 7nm is to reduce costs and space.

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Newer processes hasn't worked for reducing costs for some time now. With 7nm it's mostly a reversal even, where you're getting same transistors for more money. Doesn't matter much for smaller chips like mobile SoCs where you get the obvious benefit of better power and the production cost increase can be easily hidden in the total BOM of a final product (smartphone, tablet) but matters a lot for big chips like single die APUs and mid range and above GPUs. Why do you think AMD is using *three dies* for its Zen2 products with one of them being made on 12nm process even? They are trying to keep the production costs in check.

 

[dotyoureyes]

Brad Sams has recently stated it's still Microsoft's plan to have the most powerful console.

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That does't mean anything, it could be sony's plan too, not everything works out as intended, Ms cannot control what sony does.

 

[Jeffram]

The last person peddling this theory is no longer a member.
It's best to assume that losses will be similar because if we start getting into company A will take a bigger loss then company B we will just go round in circles.
Plus the only evidence on losses is based on history an this gen both companies have taken similar losses at the start of this gen, so I don't know why anyone would choose to ignore the only evidence we have on the matter.

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Let me just unpack your first comment there. Are you saying the scenario I presented is grounds for being banned? Is it a threat? Am I just in the company of bad people who have bad people opinions or outlooks?

You said that you didn't see a possibility where Sony was more powerful and equivocated power to price points, I presented a SCENARIO which it was. I used IF and COULD in almost every sentence of my post, and decoupled power and price point.

Now for your rebuttal, You can't just look at the start of this gen in a bubble as history bound to repeat itself because what happened in the past is the evidence, and if you take last get as an indicator of their strategy it doesn't look good for Microsoft being able to provide more power/$. The start of last gen Sony had a streaming service, and Microsoft didn't. If history just repeats itself you would say that Sony would continue to put more eggs in the streaming basket than Microsoft because it was the only evidence we had on the matter. Business objectives change, measures of success change, each business is in a much different place than it was at the beginning of last gen, and it will inform their go to market strategy. I'm not saying I know what will happen, but you can't rule out the possibility as speculation in the face of evidence.

Everything is speculation friend, your view on how or why things might shake out, my view on how or why things might shake out etc. I'm not following what speculation you feel is ok and what speculation you feel is not.

 

[Ozorov]

It's not been confirmed they do.
A vega 56 can do hardware accelerated raytracing.

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Matt said they both have hardware RT

 

[Adookah]

It's not been confirmed they do.
A vega 56 can do hardware accelerated raytracing.

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We should call Mark Cerny to give us a hint.

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

Wait, so is AMD's 1.25x claim when comparing Navi to GCN not true?

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It's better

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

Matt said they both have hardware RT

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He could mean what I said, or did he clarify they have specific RT hardware.

 

[Ozorov]

They both have HW RT.

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He could mean what I said, or did he clarify they have specific RT hardware.

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That's what he said

 

[Xeontech]

It's not been confirmed they do.
A vega 56 can do hardware accelerated raytracing.

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What's not been confirmed exactly? Navi is confirmed for both. RT hardware confirmed for both. What exactly are you saying?

He could mean what I said, or did he clarify they have specific RT hardware.

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Ah, you are just misinformed I see.

 

[DrKeo]

If Lockhart is still a thing they will need one hell of a sales pitch for it to have any impact on the market and if only the GPU is non-premium and all other components are identical to Anaconda 299 USD is as unrealistic as 399 USD for Anaconda.

The whole thing doesn't add up at all and never did in my opinion.

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Cheaper APU (even if the CPU is the same), smaller and slower memory, cheaper cooling, cheaper power supply, smaller HDD/SSD, smaller and lighter case (which also makes shipping and storage cheaper) and maybe even cheaper build/less io/no BR drive. Usually, half the HDD storage alone makes a 100$ difference between SKUs, add up all the other things and you can easily get to 150$ difference, maybe even 200$.

2D to 3D easily beats that

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Not only that 2D to 3D was the biggest jump in the gaming industry in the past 30 years, but the N64 which was part of that jump also used cartridges. So the N64 had both redefined gaming with games like Zelda and Mario going 3D, it also had very low loading times.

So just to be sure I am on the current track of things.

PS5 is going to have a 36CU GPU clocked at 1.8Ghz for a total of ~8.3TF. Based on Navi 10 RDNA 1.0 which also means no RT hardware.

And MS seems to be going for a bigger GPU, 44CU - 52CU and a power band of anywhere from 9TF - ~12TF and also is based on RDNA 2.0 and has RT hardware.

And both consoles are releasing in Nov 2020...... nothing seems off about that picture?

I am kinda perplexed though with regards to the selective rumor mongering in this thread.

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It makes sense only if Sony is going after 399$ console while Microsoft goes for 499$ or if Microsoft is willing to lose much more per console.

The funny thing about rumors 1.5 years before the consoles come out is, if we had these rumors in June 2012 for the PS4 and XBO they would sound something like this:
"'I've heard that the next XBOX has double the memory of the PS4 AND has a larger die. I've also heard that Microsoft is making a 499$ console while Sony is aiming at 399$"

Funny, isn't it? Just imagine this thread getting these quotes, all hell will break loose.

 

[Kopite]

RT would still tank the performance right? Isn't it unlikely it gets used much if at all for AAA games?

 

[Deleted member 40133]

zhuge even closed that thread due to klobrille being not a reliable enough source. i dont think we should be taking his word about next gen.

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I don't quite know the timeline, but not to mention if he made this tweet after what Phil said....I mean....it's not exactly inside info

 

[only_fools_&_horses]

And at least for Microsoft we got that vison and talk from insiders. For Sony we have nothing.

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I really dont understand this. Sony sent their chief architect to wired and let him get questioned by a tech journalist who confirmed the following:

- SSD
- Navi GPU
- Zen 2 CPU
- Ray Tracing
- 3D Audio
- Actual footage of SSD streaming open worlds at insanely fast speeds

And we have nothing for Sony?

Everything with the exception of GDDR6 RAM MS confirmed was already confirmed by Sony two months ago. you have two journalists who said PS5 is more powerful. You have a moderator on this board who confirmed Hardware Ray tracing just last week. what exactly do you want?

And what exactly have MS insiders said that is more valuable or detail oriented than what we have from Sony. I would love to see some quotes because i dont see anything that we know about Scarlet that isnt already known about the PS5.

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Just like i said in previous posts.

 

[Chamber]

You think we'll get a 10TF GPU next gen?

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Don't really care to be honest, 8-9TF on Navi is a 6-7x increase in game performance vs. base consoles. That's good enough to me. I'll keep saying it, no one is going to care about TFLOPs once we actually start seeing games.

 

[disco_potato]

Found the thread!

Because of the supposed ARG stuff, when this was found $399 was looking likely.

Love the robot, so I'm glad everyone went crazy for this to be discovered.

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Vaguely remember that thread. It was something, but nothing like the current one.

Called it! $399! I wouldn't even be surprised if they went $349 to kill off the Pro completely.

I can't believe anyone really thought this would ever go above that price. MS isn't stupid.

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[ElNerdo]

RT would still tank the performance right? Isn't it unlikely it gets used much if at all for AAA games?

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There could be different performance modes; ie 1080p/30fps/RT, 4k/60fps, 4k/30fps, etc.

 

[Sid]

Don't really care to be honest, 8-9TF on Navi is a 6-7x increase in game performance vs. base consoles. That's good enough to me. I'll keep saying it, no one is going to care about TFLOPs once we actually start seeing games.

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You were mentioning 12.5TF that's why I asked...nvm

 

[Deleted member 40133]

You just supported my point. The discussion would be more constructive than the back and forth we see now for quite some time. Why not try to get to the bottom of it instead of shouting: "My console of preference is better than yours".

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Assuming that ps5 is smaller die size than Xbox, what are the possible options for it being more powerful? I suppose it comes down to how much more powerful and how much smaller the die is. I could see ten percent either way, but nothing significant.

 

[grosbard]

The funny thing about rumors 1.5 years before the consoles come out is, if we had these rumors in June 2012 for the PS4 and XBO they would sound something like this:
"'I've heard that the next XBOX has double the memory of the PS4 AND has a larger die. I've also heard that Microsoft is making a 499$ console while Sony is aiming at 399$"

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This is a really good point!

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

What's not been confirmed exactly? Navi is confirmed for both. RT hardware confirmed for both. What exactly are you saying?


Ah, you are just misinformed I see.

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No, people are just assuming matt means they have "specific RT hardware"

Stadia has RT hardware.

 

[eathdemon]

Assuming that ps5 is smaller die size than Xbox, what are the possible options for it being more powerful? I suppose it comes down to how much more powerful and how much smaller the die is. I could see ten percent either way, but nothing significant.

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there is a option where ms has the bigger die, but uses it for other things that wont show up in the tfps number. for example vrs, more rt hardware ect.

 

[eathdemon]

No, people are just assuming matt means they have "specific RT hardware"

Stadia has RT hardware.

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I mean if you mean using several gpus sure, but its using a vega gpu, so......

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

there is a option where ms has the bigger die, but uses it for other things that wont show up in the tfps number. for example vrs, more rt hardware ect.

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Of that is this the case it will be interesting which will tout "the world's most powerful console"

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

I mean if you mean using several gpus sure, but its using a vega gpu, so......

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Done on a vega 56

 

[Chamber]

You were mentioning 12.5TF that's why I asked...nvm

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8TF RX5700 = 12TF Vega 64 in game performance

I think some are taking the 1.25x multiplier a bit too literally. The RX 5700 should significantly outperform a Vega 56.

 

[Lokimaster]

What kind of hardware RT, tho?
You can have hardware accelerated graphics with a lot reduced downtime like Nvidia RTX, or you can have special hardware pipelines for ray traced sound.
Wasn't special audio hardware a talkingpoint last generation alraedy?

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Dude......What?
Wow....Just WOW...

 

[Heckler456]

No, people are just assuming matt means they have "specific RT hardware"

Stadia has RT hardware.

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Stadia has a bespoke hardware that handles Raytracing? Because that's the only context people use "hardware RT" in.

 

[nelsonroyale]

No, nothing of it was confirmed by anyone from Sony. And the 400mm^2 of the Anaconda SOC is also not confirmed by anyone from Microsoft.
In that sense all is based on non credible sources. Including all tweets, forum posts, pastebins and reddits of non-Sony or non-MS representatives.

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thanks for clarifying! Compared to last gen, there seems less credible sources. Well we know some vague info from MS and Sony...

 

[modiz]

8TF RX5700 = 12TF Vega 64 in game performance

I think some are taking the 1.25x multiplier a bit too literally. The RX 5700 should significantly outperform a Vega 56.

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That is what which confuses me, the numbers dont match up, i will probably wait until the external benchmarks

 

[Elfstruck]

What kind of hardware RT, tho?
You can have hardware accelerated graphics with a lot reduced downtime like Nvidia RTX, or you can have special hardware pipelines for ray traced sound.
Wasn't special audio hardware a talkingpoint last generation alraedy?

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Take off ur fanboy hat and read out loud what you just wrote.

 

[KOHIPEET]

RT would still tank the performance right? Isn't it unlikely it gets used much if at all for AAA games?

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I still think that some finer form of Voxel GI will dominate next-gen. I hope whatever extra hw they implement, will be flexible enough to accelerate forms of GI other than RT.

 

[eathdemon]

I still think that some finer form of Voxel GI will dominate next-gen. I hope whatever extra hw they implement, will be flexible enough to accelerate forms of GI other than RT.

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the reasson everyone wants rt is not just b/c it looks better, its also way less work for devs, curently lighting is done by hand.

 

[disco_potato]

5700XT already has vapor chamber.

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And it's going to run HOTTT! Biggest complaint about polaris/vega was noise. What does AMD do? Slap on a cheapo blower fan, a VC, graphite sheet(inferior to even cheap paste) and hope for the best. As soon as people try to increase clocks with reference cards the noise will be back. There's a reason AIB cards go with $40-$50 heat-pipe coolers.

yeah, i know its using vapor chamber cooling. that explains why they are able to go up all the way to 1.95 ghz. if both consoles are using vapor chamber cooling, this could explain the 1.8 ghz gonzolo max clock. lower, but not that much lower.

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No, that's not why it can go to 1900mhz. 7nm and power efficiency are the major reason. If you looked at thermals of the x1x, IIRC it runs hotter than pro, but quieter. And after latest revision with slower fans, pro is still cooler and I believe quieter too. AMD only picked VC because they had to run fans at very low speeds. At those speeds, heat-pipes would not be able to move the heat away efficiently enough. As I stated above, AIB cards don't come with vapor chambers and it's not mostly because of price as those coolers already run $40-50 on mid-high range cards.

 

[KOHIPEET]

the reasson everyone wants rt is not just b/c it looks better, its also way less work for devs, curently lighting is done by hand.

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I know that. It's just that seeing its impact on performance (even on GPU's which will probably still end up being more powerful than whatever next-gen can offer.) makes me believe we're just aren't there yet.

 

[Sid]

Can we add a poll for the amount of RAM instead of the type? just curious to see if anyone thinks it'll be over 16...

 

[disco_potato]

Can we add a poll for the amount of RAM instead of the type? just curious to see if anyone thinks it'll be over 16...

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I'd say majority would think it will.

 

[Sid]

I'd say majority would think it will.

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More than 16GB GDDR6?

 

[rokkerkory]

At the end of the day both consoles will output at a minimum 4k60 with additional gfx stuff like RT-lite, that's all I care about.