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Overall maximum teraflops for next-gen launch consoles?

  • 8 teraflops

    Votes: 43 1.9%
  • 9 teraflops

    Votes: 56 2.4%
  • 12 teraflops

    Votes: 978 42.5%
  • 14 teraflops

    Votes: 525 22.8%
  • Team ALL THE WAY UP +14 teraflops

    Votes: 491 21.3%
  • 10 teraflops (because for some reason I put 9 instead of 10)

    Votes: 208 9.0%

  • Total voters
    2,301
Status
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goonergaz

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,710
MS had the better next gen hardware 2 out of 3 times so far and it didn't help them at all.

The best next-gen hardware doesn't help at all if the audience isn't interested.

But please don't get me wrong. MS will expand their base. The next console will sell much better than the One.

Seems a difficult concept to grasp...that only a very small minority give a rats backside about power.
 

Carn

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,940
The Netherlands
Judging how easily X is dominating the sales charts and how the gap is getting smaller between xbox one and ps4

I would argue that receipts and context are necessary with those kind of quotes. My country's biggest online shop has a top-10 selling consoles, and it has the first Xbox SKU (the S) placed six. The top 5 is Switch and PS4 SKUs and the NES mini, and 7 to 10 are also Nintendo and Playstation SKUs. So, the X isn't even top 10 selling console over here.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
An APU includes memory and PCB complexity. Cooling doesn't cost that much. The Scorpio is smaller than the original XBO and comes in a much smaller box for instance so cooling can reduce size.

You couldn't be more wrong, i'm afraid.

The APU will include a memory interface, but a 25% faster GPU will need roughly 25% more memory bandwidth, which may be the difference between a 256bit bus and a 384bit, which requires more die area, thus bigger APU die, as well as more GDDR6 memory chips... potentially.

The PCB is the printed circuit board, so quite how the APU can include that as per your claim is clearly absurd. The point is a faster APU needing a bigger memory bus and thus more chips increases the board complexity and thus assembly costs.

Your cooling costs claim while technically true, the cost increments aren't insignificant and together with everything else will all add up.

Also, we're assuming a similar cooling system design in both cases, so going with a 25% faster chip that has to dissipate possibly more than 25% more heat (because increase in TDP with clocks and thus voltage is not linear) won't result in a smaller box assuming both cases use a similar vapour chamber heatsink as in the XB1X.

Dissipating a higher TDP requires more fin area and likely a higher air flow through the chasis; so for the same acoustic profile you can't escape a bigger box.

Honestly, assuming AMD hasn't really changed the arch to address whatever was bottlenecking their performance (maybe it was the FE that couldn't keep the SEs fed, maybe it was a limitation inherent to the SE design plus being bound to 4 SEs, maybe it was the ROPs, I've read several theories on what could be happening), I can't see either company, Sony or MS, going above 56CUs - it's literally wasted silicon for most purposes, actual perf gain above that being minimal.

I think Radeon 7 proves the diminishing returns between Vega 56 and Vega 64 are down to an issue of memory bandwidth.

That said, NVidia seems to need less bandwidth for the same performance and less for more performance most cases than AMD.
 

Hudsoniscool

Banned
Jun 5, 2018
1,495
MS had the better next gen hardware 2 out of 3 times so far and it didn't help them at all.

The best next-gen hardware doesn't help at all if the audience isn't interested.

But please don't get me wrong. MS will expand their base. The next console will sell much better than the One.

Didn't help at all? Xbox sold like 27 million units to ps2's 150 million. It had 1/5th the sales. Then 360 matches ps3 with 80 million plus. Which was around 2.5 the sales of Xbox. Ps3 had almost a 50% drop off.

How is that "didn't help at all".
 
Feb 26, 2018
2,753
ps4 been from months before the release...the best console...(on price and power)..touted in fact by all the media./forum/internet/tweeter etc etc
And? You are delusional if you really believe that power and price was the only reason everyone hated original xbox one vision.
And conveniently you forgot about how all that media you so like was damage controlling that disaster xbox reveal.
 

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
I would argue that receipts and context are necessary with those kind of quotes. My country's biggest online shop has a top-10 selling consoles, and it has the first Xbox SKU (the S) placed six. The top 5 is Switch and PS4 SKUs and the NES mini, and 7 to 10 are also Nintendo and Playstation SKUs. So, the X isn't even top 10 selling console over here.
Yeah, I don't know what that claim is based on but it surly isn't based on the information we have.
 
Feb 26, 2018
2,753
I would argue that receipts and context are necessary with those kind of quotes. My country's biggest online shop has a top-10 selling consoles, and it has the first Xbox SKU (the S) placed six. The top 5 is Switch and PS4 SKUs and the NES mini, and 7 to 10 are also Nintendo and Playstation SKUs. So, the X isn't even top 10 selling console over here.
Yeah, I don't know what that claim is based on but it surly isn't based on the information we have.
Adding /s takes all the fun from shitposting you know
 

Bunkles

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,663
We don't even have a clue what the so-called 'lockhart' even is supposed to be but luckily we already have people drawing lines in the sand, dictating how the competition is powerless against the 4D chess being played.

The age of Sony is truly done.

This thread is becoming a joke.

People also think that a cheaper next-gen Xbox is an autowin and completely discounting the brand power of PlayStation.

Same gonna happen next gen. Judging how easily X is dominating the sales charts and how the gap is getting smaller between xbox one and ps4 we can agree that Sony should be afraid

Sony is outselling Xbox literally everywhere on a month to month basis so I'm gonna need to see the receipts where X is 'dominating the sales charts.' (edit: nvm, troll post I guess)
 

goonergaz

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,710
Didn't help at all? Xbox sold like 27 million units to ps2's 150 million. It had 1/5th the sales. Then 360 matches ps3 with 80 million plus. Which was around 2.5 the sales of Xbox. Ps3 had almost a 50% drop off.

How is that "didn't help at all".

Yes, let's ignore the year head-start, the massive price difference, the lack of decent excluisves when PS3 launched, the poor online service etc etc.

It was just the power.
 

Kemono

▲ Legend ▲
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,669
Didn't help at all? Xbox sold like 27 million units to ps2's 150 million. It had 1/5th the sales. Then 360 matches ps3 with 80 million plus. Which was around 2.5 the sales of Xbox. Ps3 had almost a 50% drop off.

How is that "didn't help at all".

MS had almost every advantage with the 360 and couldn't beat a ps3 with the worst problems ever for a playstation.

Almost 60 million 360s where sold in the us+uk.

So yes, with all their advantages, all of sonys errors they couldn't sell 1/3 of their consoles outside of their comfort zone.

Power was one of many advantages. I wouldn't try to sell a next-gen console on the hopes one advantage magically will suffice when almost all of the advantages didn't help them win before.
 

goonergaz

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,710
Yes, he has been verified in the past.

Interesting, be really interesting to see how they manage to hit to $300 being banded around! I suppose RT will be s/w based at a guess...the only other cutbacks are raw GPU/CPU power and (again I assume) a drive? This will potentially be painful for devs.

What did the original reddit post say?
 

CelestialAtom

Mambo Number PS5
Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,063
With Sony's current engineering team, I do believe it's possible to create a slightly more powerful console, as Microsoft tends to go more for brute force and Sony has their "Secret Sauce" that they seem to enjoy getting creative with to allow them to punch above their weight, so it's up in the air at this point. Regardless, I wouldn't put much faith in a 4Chan post. Once more specs are out, then we can understand the situation a lot better.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
17,883
Interesting, be really interesting to see how they manage to hit to $300 being banded around! I suppose RT will be s/w based at a guess...the only other cutbacks are raw GPU/CPU power and (again I assume) a drive? This will potentially be painful for devs.

What did the original reddit post say?
Well he never confirmed it is 299 iirc, only that it is "best value" it could be 399
 

Bunkles

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,663
All this power talk will be pointless once we've seen Horizon 2. Grant us eyes!

This is gonna be true for both systems for sure. All these specs won't mean shit once fans see next-gen Halo or Spider-Man 2 or Sony's VR 2.0. Shit is gonna be wild next-gen regardless of final flop count.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,916
Maryland
All this power talk will be pointless once we've seen Horizon 2.

tenor.gif



images
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
Didn't help at all? Xbox sold like 27 million units to ps2's 150 million. It had 1/5th the sales. Then 360 matches ps3 with 80 million plus. Which was around 2.5 the sales of Xbox. Ps3 had almost a 50% drop off.

How is that "didn't help at all".

Huh? Your examples undermine the point you're trying to make.

The Xbox sold less than 25% of its direct competitor while being significantly more powerful - but also launchong much later.

The 360 only managed to match the PS3's sales while essentially being roughly the same in realworld performance (PS3 on paper had more shading performance - so going by the flops numbers people are so obsessed with PS3 was more powerful), despite launching a year earlier and Sony's monumental fuck-up with the PS3.

The 360s successes had more to do with its ability to match PS3 on library, together with MS's first party juggernauts over the first half of the gen.

So the above examples aren't in any universe examples of more power helping sales success. You can't even justify from that an argument that power advantage made any difference at all.
 

Hey Please

Avenger
Oct 31, 2017
22,824
Not America
He doesn't have any . His gut feeling . many times he has been told 9tf amd is not same as 9tf 1080 . 1080 is around 12tf of amd not 9

The way the sentence is phrased it sounds like the user is conveying information he acquired elsewhere, rather than gut feeling.

Anyway, with regards to real world performance of Nvidia cards compared to AMD, your claim of equivalency is correct.
 

Nostradamus

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,280
With Sony's current engineering team, I do believe it's possible to create a slightly more powerful console, as Microsoft tends to go more for brute force and Sony has their "Secret Sauce" that they seem to enjoy getting creative with to allow them to punch above their weight, so it's up in the air at this point. Regardless, I wouldn't put much faith in a 4Chan post. Once more specs are out, then we can understand the situation a lot better.
Honestly, I don't believe in secret sauces and consider both companies fairly equal in their engineering capacity. I think what really is going to determine performance is the target price and nothing else. For the same price, I expect both companies to offer similar machines, since they are basically using the same vendor and both focus on the main console and not on peripherals like Kinect.

In any case, I think that all 3 SKUs are going to have a different price and as a result won't be directly comparable. I also think that MS is going to focus a lot on Lockhart since that is the SKU that is going to determine success or failure for them. If they don't manage to establish Lockhart as an appealing proposition then people are just going to turn to direct comparisons between PS5 to Anaconda, and in that case Anaconda is going to lose even if it's more powerful (since it's going to be more expensive).
 

Papacheeks

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,620
Watertown, NY
Perhaps Sony contributed enough during the R&D phase where they would be able to get 'preferential pricing' on the chips.

That's why I've been about Sony being very competitive when it comes to pricing for PS5. I think you will see PS5 be a more balanced system than Anaconda. Anaconda will have more raw performance power than PS5 but Sony will have a console that is no slouch and possibly be cheaper.
 

CelestialAtom

Mambo Number PS5
Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,063
Honestly, I don't believe in secret sauces and consider both companies fairly equal in their engineering capacity. I think what really is going to determine performance is the target price and nothing else. For the same price, I expect both companies to offer similar machines, since they are basically using the same vendor and both focus on the main console and not on peripherals like Kinect.

In any case, I think that all 3 SKUs are going to have a different price and as a result won't be directly comparable. I also think that MS is going to focus a lot on Lockhart since that is the SKU that is going to determine success or failure for them. If they don't manage to establish Lockhart as an appealing proposition then people are just going to turn to direct comparisons between PS5 to Anaconda, and in that case Anaconda is going to lose even if it's more powerful (since it's going to be more expensive).

That is a great point and one that will be a defining factor. I'm really hoping that Sony can place the PS5 at $399, but since they are going all-out, the $499 price is seeming to be the reality IMO — which, isn't an entirely bad price, but it all depends on the specs. It's an amazing time to be a gamer, as with Phil running Xbox and Mark Carney designing the PS5, I have a lot of faith that both sides will produce fantastic experiences with the new horsepower.
 
Oct 27, 2017
7,142
Somewhere South
I think Radeon 7 proves the diminishing returns between Vega 56 and Vega 64 are down to an issue of memory bandwidth.

That said, NVidia seems to need less bandwidth for the same performance and less for more performance most cases than AMD.

I don't think we have a valid comparison point to the Radeon VII to say that for sure. IIRC, OCing the memory for the Vega 64 didn't do much to improve it's perf relative to the the 56.
 

Pheonix

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
5,990
St Kitts
I know your example was ilustrative, but that 40% of remaining chips for Lockheart is unrealistic, because among them would be a proportion with defects in the areas that result in a dead chip, as well as chips that won't meet the clockspeed target for Lockheart without pushing voltage beyond a reasonable threshold.

In addition, Lockheart is supposed to be the mass market high volume device, so ending up with more Anaconda dies than Lockheart dies makes Lockheart a little worthless overall.

They'll have to deliberately disable and underclock good Anaconda dies to meet the demand, binning for each product means they're more or less at the mercy of the elements in terms of having any control over which of the two products they manufacture.

If they find themselves in a position later in the gen. where Lockheart is the biggest seller by far, they'll still have to produce full Anaconda dies to feed the demand, instead of being able to fab a much smaller dedicated Lockheart die and benefit from the higher yields.
Yes my example was illustrative, but when I said 80% yield I was referring to chips that were at least not dead. So basically chips that have defects only on the GPU side of them. In which case, a portion of those chips (the best performing ones) will go to anaconda and the rest will go to lockhart. Also, while I know that lokhart is being pushed as the mass market device.... I don't think that's really what it is. I look t it as the whole PS3 60GB vs PS3 20GB. The cheaper 20GB was not the most available sku. Its really just there so MS can say "starting at XXX" where xxx is a price $100 less than whatever the PS5 is. I also see it as MS ay to ensure they still use all the chips they have available as opposed to only being able to use the chips that can lock the highest and have every single CU in the GPU working. That conundrum is what makes all AMD 64CU GPUs expensive because the yields are low for chips that can meet all those requirements.

Think of it this way. Both Sony and MS order chips. Both chips are pretty much the exact same size. And they both get 80% of the chips available on each wafer. That 80% yield puts the cost of each chip to around $150. Now for Sony, that's it for them, they will be able to use all of that 80% because they're disabling 4CUs. But for MS they can only use like 60% of that 80% because they are not disabling anything for anaconda. Rather than just throw away the remaining 40% of that 80%, they will put them in Lockhart. Now mind you, nothing stops them from making a Lockhart specific APU that has only 50CU (54CU with 4 disabled) but those will be ordered in a smaller quantity.

Either way, this represents the cheapest way for MS to do the whole dual SKU thing and still be more powerful than the PS5 even if they were technically spending the exact same amount of money Sony is spending on the PS5.

Two things I need to address.
1. The jaguars took ~70mm2 on 28nm. On 16nm they took much less space.
2. 64 CUs take up more than 42% of the die on Vega 7. More than 140mm2. I am not sure if they can improve density for Navi from 140mm2 to 95mm2.

See pic for vega 7: It's easy to calculate that the 64 CUs takes up around ~140mm2.
VRq96IV104zKOLCm.jpg
Yes you are right, mixed up my totals a bit, but we are still n the same ball park.

If jaguar 16nm took up 70mm2, then at 7nm it's safe to assume that an 8core ryzen which is bigger than jaguar will take up around the same 70mm2. 70mm2 for CPU + 140mm2 for GPU still puts us at around 210mm2. That is still leaving a lot of wiggle room for memory controllers I/O, caches..... etc for what should be an APU of anywhere between 300mm2 to 360mm2(as is in the XB1X). Ultimately we still fall in the same range of APU sizes that's been prevalent in the current gen.
 

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,385
That's why I've been about Sony being very competitive when it comes to pricing for PS5. I think you will see PS5 be a more balanced system than Anaconda. Anaconda will have more raw performance power than PS5 but Sony will have a console that is no slouch and possibly be cheaper.

For sure.

With a $399 sku they have WW domination secured again.

Not to the insane levels if this gen, that will end up 2.5:1 (125M VS 50M) by fall 2020, but somewhere between 1.4:1 and 2:1.

I mean this is a given guys, no ifs and buts about it. Best case scenario will be something like 120 vs 80M (1.5:1)
 

VinFTW

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,470
For sure.

With a $399 sku they have WW domination secured again.

Not to the insane levels if this gen, that will end up 2.5:1 (125M VS 50M) by fall 2020, but somewhere between 1.4:1 and 2:1.

I mean this is a given guys, no ifs and buts about it. Best case scenario will be something like 120 vs 80M (1.5:1)

Even with a 599 SKU they'd have WW domination, but competing is not MS's plan (pure hardware numbers).

MS has been pretty open about competing with Sony and their goal next-gen. You should check out some articles/interviews (esp w/ Phil Spencer).
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,018
Florida
The idea that Sony will be handing MS the market if they don't have a Lockhart is laughable, Sony is competing with Lockhart and Anaconda with the PS5, they don't need to release a similar gimped down SKU.

Who said anything about handing MS the market? All that was said was that for budget conscious COD, FIFA, Madden, Fortnite players the decision won't be as clear cut.
 

Bradbatross

Member
Mar 17, 2018
14,246
Those already locked into Ms ecosystem, sure.

But no reason for PS4 owners to jump ship, specially if PS5 it's a $399 BC SKU, as it's my prediction.
That just doesn't make any sense. This will be aimed at casual gamers, who are much less likely to feel "locked in" to any ecosystem. $100 price difference, Game Pass, and Xbox exclusives will be appealing to casual gamers.
 

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
Who said anything about handing MS the market? All that was said was that for budget conscious COD, FIFA, Madden, Fortnite players the decision won't be as clear cut.
The person I was replying to? Also a reminder that MS have had the cheapest console for the majority of this gen yet the crowd you're talking about weren't affected.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,018
Florida
For sure.

With a $399 sku they have WW domination secured again.

Not to the insane levels if this gen, that will end up 2.5:1 (125M VS 50M) by fall 2020, but somewhere between 1.4:1 and 2:1.

I mean this is a given guys, no ifs and buts about it. Best case scenario will be something like 120 vs 80M (1.5:1)

I'm good with that. Two healthy ecosystems.
 
Nov 12, 2017
2,877
And? You are delusional if you really believe that power and price was the only reason everyone hated original xbox one vision.
And conveniently you forgot about how all that media you so like was damage controlling that disaster xbox reveal.
and whatelse should have been if not power and price sorry?...damage controlling? who was doing it? there was covers of magazine openly saying...to buy a ps4 man :D
 

SeanMN

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,187
With Sony's current engineering team, I do believe it's possible to create a slightly more powerful console, as Microsoft tends to go more for brute force and Sony has their "Secret Sauce" that they seem to enjoy getting creative with to allow them to punch above their weight.

How are "brute force" versus secret sauce or an elegant design quantified? I've seen this or similar mentioned a few times; when brute force is mentioned in this thread it's typically done as a pejorative, in comparison to an alternate more efficient (better) design.

The difference between the PS4 Pro and the 1X comes down to engineering and BOM. Both had chips produced on the same manufacturing node. The CUs on the 1X are 10% smaller than those on the PS4 Pro, and can clock close to 30% higher (with the aid of a more advanced cooler). The system has 4 more memory chips (and a larger memory bus on the SOC), a higher clocked CPU, packaged in a smaller and quieter form factor, and only draws about 20 watts more power. Results of 50-100% higher resolution are typical. Which design is brute force and which design is elegant/efficient/?

Edit - corrected math.
 
Last edited:
Oct 27, 2017
4,648
Who said anything about handing MS the market? All that was said was that for budget conscious COD, FIFA, Madden, Fortnite players the decision won't be as clear cut.
To be fair, Call of Duty, FIFA, Madden & Fortnite won't be going next-gen only anytime soon. Their respective companies will be *extremely* reluctant to turn their backs on the current PS4/XB1 install bases (and the micro transactions they can squeeze from them). So really for the people who only buy those games its gonna be a long time before they "need" to upgrade anyway.
 

Bunkles

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,663
Can I just say that I love how we are unironically talking about secret sauce again... this many years later. Round and round we go!
 
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