julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
17,753
Nikki is smart to stay in the race as long as she possibly can. She no doubt wants to position herself as the future of the republican party.

It's Trump's party right now, but look at how poorly the party has done under his watch. If he eats the biggest L of all this year, then they're going to hard pivot away from him, kissing the ring only happens for as long as he gets actual results. His ability to get those has become more and more questionable after the red wave falling apart in the midterms.

If that happens there's going to be a big power vacuum in the GOP and Nikki being able to position herself as the 'moderate' return to normalcy for the party would be a huge career win for her. Especially since she's young, and doesn't carry the baggage that other prominent GOP politicians do.
This feels a bit like wishful thinking on their part since many in the GOP are acting out of fear and not in the interest of the party. We've heard from enough people that they back Trump because his base scares them, not because they think he's the clear winner. Him losing won't change that. His base will still scare and threaten them.
 

HStallion

Member
Oct 25, 2017
65,100
Really depends on the manner of a hypothetical loss. If it's close he'll try to be back if he's not in prison.

Dude's not going to make it to 2028 in any kind of presentable form. He seems like his mental faculties are really starting to fail and that's going to become a lot more apparent as he gets more and more coverage going into the election.
 

Katbobo

Member
May 3, 2022
6,745
This feels a bit like wishful thinking on their part since many in the GOP are acting out of fear and not in the interest of the party. We've heard from enough people that they back Trump because his base scares them, not because they think he's the clear winner. Him losing won't change that. His base will still scare and threaten them.

It might be wishful thinking, but I think they'll feel more emboldened to do it if the rest of the party is. Part of the difficulty is that the party as a whole is kneeling to Trump, so if you break ranks then you immediately become a target for not only his base, but also him. He will put anyone on blast who doesn't kiss his ass.

But if the party as a whole moves away from him then that gives more cover.

But also, the man is also his in his late 70s and obese with an unhealthy lifestyle. Even in the best circumstances I can't imagine Trump is in any position to legitimately lead the party in a decade as he closes in on 90 even if he lives that long.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,845
Norman, OK
This feels a bit like wishful thinking on their part since many in the GOP are acting out of fear and not in the interest of the party. We've heard from enough people that they back Trump because his base scares them, not because they think he's the clear winner. Him losing won't change that. His base will still scare and threaten them.

I mean, if he loses this year and he once again hurts the GOP down-ticket, I'm all for him being the face of the party in 2028 and beyond.
 

HStallion

Member
Oct 25, 2017
65,100
The big issue is that what the GOP and its mega rich backers want doesn't really matter if their insane base still wants to support and follow Trump beyond a loss in 2024. They've created a monster that they can no longer control and reaping the rewards of such an action.
 

BWoog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
40,585
But also, the man is also his in his late 70s and obese with an unhealthy lifestyle. Even in the best circumstances I can't imagine Trump is in any position to legitimately lead the party in a decade as he closes in on 90 even if he lives that long.

If/when Trump loses this year, he'll claim fraud but I think he'll also immediately announce that he's running in 2028.

Imagine an 82 year old Trump trying to debate Newsom or something as Republicans stare down the barrel of another historic loss.
 

cameron

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
24,695
Y5Em41H.png



When the history of the Trump era is written, we'll struggle to find quotes that are as revealing as one recorded Monday evening by The Washington Post's Amy Gardner, Ashley Parker, Josh Dawsey and Emma Brown.

Speaking about President Trump's and his legal team's myriad and baseless claims of massive voter fraud, an anonymous senior Republican official offered a rhetorical shrug.


"What is the downside for humoring him for this little bit of time? No one seriously thinks the results will change," the official said. "He went golfing this weekend. It's not like he's plotting how to prevent Joe Biden from taking power on Jan. 20. He's tweeting about filing some lawsuits, those lawsuits will fail, then he'll tweet some more about how the election was stolen, and then he'll leave."
 

Katbobo

Member
May 3, 2022
6,745
If/when Trump loses this year, he'll claim fraud but I think he'll also immediately announce that he's running in 2028.

Imagine an 82 year old Trump trying to debate Newsom or something as Republicans stare down the barrel of another historic loss.

Oh no doubt. We don't even have to look outside the party. Can you imagine him debating Nikki when he's 82 and the party has eaten loss under loss under his watch? Even in the times they get power, like their thin majority in the House, they can't get anything done because the Trump copycats can't stop eating their own or turn off the political theatre because it's all they have.
 

cameron

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
24,695

turtle553

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,726
So Trump won by a total of 36k votes out of a total 320k votes.

Biden won by 40k+ voters on a write in campaign out of about 120k votes cast.

This is bad news for Biden
/s
 

tuffy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,594
As a point of comparison on the Dem side, the 2012 NH primary for Obama's reelection had about 62k votes cast.
 

Stooge

Member
Oct 29, 2017
13,155
It's not really that significant either way. Biden is winning NH easily. It's not a swing state.

I mean, it is though.

Kerry carried the state by about 30K votes in 2012

Obama won in 2008 by about 10%.

Obama won it in 2012 by around 5%

Hillary won there by less than 3K votes in 2016.

Biden opened up a much much larger lead.

NH tends to go blue in presidential election but has had statewide wins by republicans.

NH is absolutely a swing state - its just not a Trump state.

NH is about as blue as NC is Red - which is to say you should expect Biden to win, but it will not be a state he walks away with.
 

Hollywood Duo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
46,855
I mean, it is though.

Kerry carried the state by about 30K votes in 2012

Obama won in 2008 by about 10%.

Obama won it in 2012 by around 5%

Hillary won there by less than 3K votes in 2016.

Biden opened up a much much larger lead.

NH tends to go blue in presidential election but has had statewide wins by republicans.

NH is absolutely a swing state - its just not a Trump state.

NH is about as blue as NC is Red - which is to say you should expect Biden to win, but it will not be a state he walks away with.
I mean it would have to actually swing between parties recently to be a swing state
 

Stooge

Member
Oct 29, 2017
13,155
I mean it would have to actually swing between parties recently to be a swing state

en.wikipedia.org

Swing state - Wikipedia


New Hampshire has been on the list of the most competitive states in every election since 2000 (where it went to Bush). A swing state doesn't mean it swings between parties - it means that swing voters will decide the outcome of the states election. NH is a lean blue state - its not a tossup and I dont think anyone ever would call it that, but you are acting like this is a walkaway state for the Dems and its not. Hillary almost lost it in 2016.

Its not a tipping point state - but thats different.

However, Chris Sununu is their governor and he is a Republican and had a republican senator in 2009. Its a state where a Republican can and has won statewide elections.
 

turtle553

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,726
It's not really that significant either way. Biden is winning NH easily. It's not a swing state.

It shows enthusiasm for Biden that gets discounted in the media. People willing to make the effort to support him when he wasn't on the ballot and no delegates were at stake. It's not a traditional swing state but does show Biden has strong support within the party.
 
Oct 21, 2022
281
Hailey is a no-brainer for Trump as the VP choice. I honestly, don't think Biden would have much of a chance against a Trump/Hailey ticket.
 

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
42,999
The non-overlap between their die-hard supporters is the point. The question is if Trump is pragmatic enough to pull the trigger. Hailey is 100% down to do it. She's angling to be the next GOP presidential candidate.


They're not as mindless as we like to pretend they are. If Haley hitched her wagon to Trump a lot of her people would see it as a betrayal. She's the never Trump pick.
 

ClickyCal'

Member
Oct 25, 2017
61,386
Unlike DeSantis, Haley now has a chance for GOP frontrunner in 28, joining Trump would end that immediately.
 

Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
13,757
Hailey is a no-brainer for Trump as the VP choice. I honestly, don't think Biden would have much of a chance against a Trump/Hailey ticket.

She is now questioning his mental acuity.

She's not auditioning for VP anymore, she's gambling that something bad happens to him and she's the last remaining human being in the GOP that can take his spot.
 

Deleted member 11637

Oct 27, 2017
18,204
She is now questioning his mental acuity.

She's not auditioning for VP anymore, she's gambling that something bad happens to him and she's the last remaining human being in the GOP that can take his spot.

In a week we should have an idea about how much money he'll owe in the NY civil case. And it won't be a slap on the wrist.
 

Pendas

Member
Oct 28, 2017
5,336
Feel like he hasn't got actual results for about 8 years now so no need to assume it'll stop after another loss.

My worry is the insane amount of election interference he is going to attempt since he hasn't faced any consequences for it, and what does he have to lose he's charged with 91 crimes anyway.
 

HStallion

Member
Oct 25, 2017
65,100
Hailey is a no-brainer for Trump as the VP choice. I honestly, don't think Biden would have much of a chance against a Trump/Hailey ticket.

Huh? Trump wants a spineless toadie to be his yes man Vice President. He's not picking anyone that might have a chance of taking the spotlight from him for even a moment. No way he picks Hailey.
 

KDC720

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,644
Haley definitely runs again in 2028. Especially if Biden wins the general. That way she can run an "I told you so" campaign. No way Trump picks her VP, he hates her guts.

If Trump loses to Joe again he's probably done in terms of electability. He'll still run as long as he breathes, but by that point he will be a twice proven loser who will probably have been convicted of at least one major crime.
 

meowdi gras

Banned
Feb 24, 2018
12,684
The non-overlap between their die-hard supporters is the point. The question is if Trump is pragmatic enough to pull the trigger. Hailey is 100% down to do it. She's angling to be the next GOP presidential candidate.
One thing about Trump's narcissism and ego that we can all be thankful for is that they are too out-of-control for him to ever be willing to actually partner with someone to help him achieve his nefarious ends. He has to clearly be the biggest, bestest, most brilliant person in every space he occupies. There's no way his monstrous vanity would ever permit himself to take on someone as publicly "competent" and outspoken as Nikki Haley to be his VP (particularly seeing as she's a woman).

Dollars to donuts, whomever he chooses is going to be someone in the mold of his former running mate, Mr Bland McMilquetoast himself, Mike Pence, whom will not steal any media or voter interest away from him. This is why I think Noem is by far the most likely candidate at this point.
 

Arkanim94

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,091
"Be my VP! I will tell my supporter to kill you when it becomes convenient!"

Tbf, I see only one person that is enough of a worm to actually accept to be Trump VP.

Welcome back Mr Santos.
 

CreepingFear

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
16,766
You are high if you think Trump will pick Haley as VP. I've changed my pick from MTG/Lake to Tim Scott after last night he cucked Tim Scott in front of a live audience.
 

NinjaScooter

Member
Oct 25, 2017
56,754
Trump doesn't want Haley as his VP. he wants someone who will potentially do what Pence wouldn't if it comes down to it. Thats a non-establishment politician. He's gonna pick a crazy ass tea party type. Picking Pence in 2016 was about appeasing the "establishment" and he doesn't need that anymore.
 

HStallion

Member
Oct 25, 2017
65,100
You are high if you think Trump will pick Haley as VP. I've changed my pick from MTG/Lake to Tim Scott after last night he cucked Tim Scott in front of a live audience.

MTG and Lake are media hounds who can't shut up about themselves. Trump wants someone who only talks about him when he wants them to. If he's picking a lady its someone meek and pretty he can parade around.
 

CreepingFear

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
16,766
MTG and Lake are media hounds who can't shut up about themselves. Trump wants someone who only talks about him when he wants them to. If he's picking a lady its someone meek and pretty he can parade around.
Tim Scott is that person. "I just love you". I was embarrassed for anyone that shares the same blood with him. Oof.
 

ChaosXVI

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,134
If he gets incarcerated, he is done, and party will have zero choice but to move on. Haley would be the instant top of the GOP if this happens.

I expect this is the only reason she's staying in as well. November is a long way away, and Trump has multiple legal grenades that could blow up before then that either takes him out legally or besmirches him enough (finally) to make him unelectable.

The trouble for Haley is that nothing short of video showing Trump committing sex acts with minors will sway his hardcore supporters to her side by November, no matter how dicey his legal situation becomes.
 

Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
13,757
If he gets incarcerated, he is done, and party will have zero choice but to move on. Haley would be the instant top of the GOP if this happens.

Gaming this through, even if he is found guilty before the election (definitely a real possibility) he's not in a jail cell until after the election anyway.

So, I fail to see how anything changes this cycle.

The right wing media machine has conditioned the right to believe that this is simply an attempt by the deep state and the left to keep him from ascending to the WH again, they're all in no matter what. Even if he is convicted.
 

HStallion

Member
Oct 25, 2017
65,100
DeSantis has higher favorability than Haley within the GOP base. He's probably the front runner for 2028.

DeSantis star has been dropping for months while Hailey's has risen. Dude is toast at the national level. Hailey can only go up, can't say the same for DeSantis.

Not too mention DeSantis does not seem to be like a guy who learns from his mistakes. I don't think he's going to suddenly run a brilliant, or even good campaign next go round.