Hillary didn't have a 10 point lead in the week leading up to the election. There were even points in the weeks leading up to the election when they were both ~50/50. There was a point where she lost the massive lead, and never got it back.A 10 point spread is bigger than the margin of error. They were way off.
Yes it is. Trump has 40% approval rating ampmg adults, but almost 50% ampng registered voters.
A 10 point spread is bigger than the margin of error. They were way off.
A 10 point spread is bigger than the margin of error. They were way off.
The model's error in 2016 was 7.1%. It thought Hillary would receive 44% of the vote and she got over 51%.
The model is a favorite among pessimists.
She was under 50%, closer to 48% with all the third party votes
That's a very good point. If a very liberal candidate wins Democratic primary, that will give Trump a lot of ammo to fire at the swing state population.National polling is kind of meaningless, big urban areas like NYC, LA, SF, Chicago skew it heavily in ways that don't reflect the electoral college. Honestly there are only 6-10 states where the election gets decided. It doesn't matter what the people of California or NYC think, those two states always send democrats into national positions. The key are the swing states like Ohio, Florida, PA, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Minnesota.
Democrats have a slight advantage going into 2020 that can easily be lost by a poor candidate (poor in THOSE SWING STATES, not in california/NYC). Electoral map wise it kind of lines up to 223 solidly democratic, 204 solidly republican, and 111 in swing states up for grabs.
Democrats will lose if they put up a candidate that middle aged white voters think is worse for them personally than Trump.
Yep. That's why someone like Joe Biden (who appeals to those swing states) is much preferable as a candidate rather than someone who is super left. It's a shame Sherrod Brown isn't running since he'd lock up those states and the presidency quite easily.That's a very good point. If a very liberal candidate wins Democratic primary, that will give Trump a lot of ammo to fire at the swing state population.
It's going to be something to see especially considering number of candidates for the primary.