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Michigan just released their unemployment numbers: 108,000 last week. Up from a usual 5,000. (Over 540,000 people in Pennsylvania alone)
- Thread starter WedgeX
- Start date
I learned that at my moms job, they laid off the only other radiology staff person who has been there for a long time (don't now how long, but mom has been been working under the hospital for nearly two decades). So it's essentially just her doing mammograms at this office. Shit is fucked. Praying that she can stay healthy.
Everything is fucked, if this is really will be a depression, then that's a wrap for her retirement.
Everything is fucked, if this is really will be a depression, then that's a wrap for her retirement.
It appears the current minimum timeframe is 4 months. So take that as you will. This is an initial burst but things will get dire. All the more reason that GOP stimulus package was garbage. People are going to need money for basic necessities and framing anything on earnings from even back in February makes no sense.
"I said I WASN'T interested in politics...
BUT THIS JUST GOT REAL."
This situation is not a normal crisis or bad market. It's artificially induced, because its better than not doing it.
That does not mean it will take nine days for it to double again. The recession of 2008 had an unemployment rate of 4.7 and again, it took months for it to climb another 6%. There's just no fuckin way.
Every retail store/small business/restaurant didn't close at the same time in 2008.
Just to lay out the numbers. US unemployment rate is 3.6%, or 5.6 million unemployed.The data so far suggests in 1 week that we are getting 5 million more jobless claims. That is nearly double the unemployment rate in a week. This trend is only going to continue. So yes, we can easily see close to 11% by the end of the month.
2008 is nothing compared to what is happening now. This is a couple shutdown of sectors and industries not a bubble burst in housing market.
And yes, the unemployment rate can go that high that quick.
Wish we could hit pause, wait it out a bit and just restart. How many people will go back to those jobs?
Damn. That is extremely true.
3.6% of the US population is 11million people. Am I missing something here? I know I said rough math but I didn't think it was that rough.
1) I think the official numbers will likely tapper off, but it will hit higher than that Goldman Sachs Numbers - 25%- 28%... (I'm don't have any basis for this, but I usually assume things are worse than projected)
2) With both the numbers before this pandemic (3.6% unemployed) and after the numbers after, I think they will won't reflect how bad things really are because it doesn't account for people who have stopped looking for work...
2) With both the numbers before this pandemic (3.6% unemployed) and after the numbers after, I think they will won't reflect how bad things really are because it doesn't account for people who have stopped looking for work...
that's not how the unemployment rate is calculated.
Look at the data yourself. 5.6 million people unemployed and the rate is 3.6%.
i can't help but feel like even if this does rebound in a few months, there will be a lot of people without a job to go back to
Ha, I added more to my post " Am I missing something here? I know I said rough math but I didn't think it was that rough. "
How the hell do they calculate it then?
Millions of people could starve to death because of this, its ridiculous. $1000 for a few months is not going to help. After this is over, the damage will be felt for years.
I assume he's referring to how quickly it can collapse with little to no emergency levers in place to prevent it from spiraling. At least that's what I would refer to.
They use labor force at the denominator when calculating the unemployment rate.
Doing some googling it looks like the labor force is calculated by the the following:
"The rate is calculated by taking the number employed, divided by the total adult population and multiplying by 100 to get the percentage. For the data from 2012, the labor force participation rate is 63.7%. In the United States the labor force participation rate is usually around 67-68%."
I don't know if these numbers include all of the people that haven't been able to access the site, which I've been hearing a lot from friends that have been laid off. My store is also hiring a lot of very capable worker that were laid off - whom are happy to have a job, and we're happy to have them, but fuck man... It's going to get ugly out there far beyond COVID19.
Meanwhile Republicans are trying to bail out corporations for... reasons? If they don't take care of the people, this system is going to collapse.
Meanwhile Republicans are trying to bail out corporations for... reasons? If they don't take care of the people, this system is going to collapse.
Maybe we'll finally get these people enough to fall back on so they aren't constantly struggling to get the basic shit they need to support their lives. Seems obvious when their labor is so crucial to holding everything together.
I imagine a lot of small businesses wont be able to just restart unfortunately.
It means our "booming economy" looked great on the outside, but on the inside it's effectively a McMansion held together by duck tape, rusty nails, and twine. It's incredibly fragile and we haven't built any durable safety nets, and the ones that were there have been slowly eroded since the Reagan era.
Time to hoard all my money in a savings account, assuming the FDIC doesn't go under (it can't go under...right...oof).
If the FDIC goes under you can say good bye to life as you know it. So not happening lol