Mentally preparing myself for Republicans controlling Congress even after mid-terms

[Exellus]

I don't know the likelihood of this. But I imagine it's better than most people think. Besides the fact that there are way, way, way more older and religious people in this country than most people here might believe, the motivation in these groups is cult-like. You can't prevent them from voting. Their outrage is equal to our own, but for all the wrong reasons and against all the wrong causes.

Basically, I'm not convinced there won't be even MORE Republican voters showing up to vote in mid-terms this time. Because these people are stubborn. They always double-down. And because there's a machine out there with billionaires pushing it.

Add to that the fact that most of the Senate up for re-election are Democrats anyway, and it's actually pretty likely that not only will Congress still be GOP controlled next year, but they might even GAIN power.

I'm not convinced there's enough outrage against Trump. The sentiment I feel in my area is "he's an idiot, but at least he's Republican". That's honestly how people think. There's no reaching them, at all.

I don't know what else to say. I'm ready to be disappointed.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

all y'all'd better go vote

 

[Betty]

Seems sensible, if it's a good outcome that's great but setting yourself up for disappointment isn't fun for anyone.

 

[julia crawford]

You should prepare yourself for another 4 years of Trump too by the way. And decades of work to undo this nightmare.

 

[Netherscourge]

They'll probably keep the Senate, but the House looks like a flip.

 

[Deleted member 17399]

I share your pessimism. Do everything you can to stop it AND BE BEST

 

[Sulik2]

Don't be too afraid OP, massive increases to health insurance premiums in Sept are what is going to push a blue wave. I'm more concerned about Russia directly changing votes messing up the election then the blue wave not showing up once health insurance costs skyrocket.

 

[DJwest]

all y'all'd better go vote

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Preach

 

[Greg NYC3]

Eh, while it's probably always best not to set yourself up for disappointment even during a normal presidency, which this isn't, it's typical for the electorate to want the opposing party in power in Congress. The switch happened later than usual in the Bush years due to 9/11 and the wars but if you look historically people don't trust a single party with all of this power for long even when they get a lot done, which these Republicans aren't.

 

[VectorPrime]

I mean, if you ignore every piece of empirical data that shows that the Dems are poised to do well, in fact have been doing well in dozens upon dozens of elections for a year now, I don't know what to tell you.

Not to mention history that shows that the party in power losses an average of 25 house seats in every midterm going back to the 40s. And that's including when the President isn't ridiculously hated.

 

[Deleted member 36937]

It is about 50/50 this is the case. Senate is likely to stay Republican. House is where it could get interesting.

I think Dems pick up 15 in House. Go -1 in Senate for full Republican control.

We will see.

 

[ThLunarian]

All voting results in every special election nationwide run counter to your expectations. In fact the results are only looking better with each special election.

The outcome of the recent Arizona election indicated that it's not young people driving the change, it's the old people. Old people are pissed that their medicare, medicaid, and social security are being threatened. And old people are the most reliable voting demographic around.

Change is coming. Pessimism is just going to give you an ulcer. If you can't bring yourself to be optimistic, then do yourself a favor and just stop thinking about it until election day.

 

[Jazar]

Pollsters say it's a toss up. Not that there isn't a blue wave but the scales are still tipped towards republicans because of gerrymandering. Would take a +6 advantage just to break even or something like that.

 

[thefro]

I feel pretty good about the House. Senate is going to be tough.

 

[Axe]

Gerrymandering and Russian interference are going to be in play, so I don't think you're being silly for having doubts. That being said, it's unusual for the incumbent party to do better than before.

 

[Strike]

all y'all'd better go vote

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Yup. Don't fucking chance it this time. Do something about it.

 

[BriGuy]

I mean, if you ignore every piece of empirical data that shows that the Dems are poised to do well, in fact have been doing well in dozens upon dozens of elections for a year now, I don't know what to tell you.

Not to mention history that shows that the party in power losses an average of 25 house seats in every midterm going back to the 40s. And that's including when the President isn't ridiculously hated.

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Perhaps, but I understand the OP's pessimism. I don't think we can rely on past precedence anymore. Things are different now, and Republicans have violated all kinds of norms and values to stack the odds in their favor. I wish I remember where I heard this metaphor, but it's like Democrats are playing football against a team that was spotted two touchdowns before the game even began.

 

[plagiarize]

I feel pretty good about the House. Senate is going to be tough.

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Even if they squeak out a 51 seat majority in the senate, it won't change much, because most things still require 60 votes, and there's no way the dems would nuke the filibuster on policy just to send legislation to Trump's desk for him to veto.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Even if they squeak out a 51 seat majority in the senate, it won't change much, because most things still require 60 votes, and there's no way the dems would nuke the filibuster on policy just to send legislation to Trump's desk for him to veto.

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You could stem the bleeding on the judiciary though.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Even if they squeak out a 51 seat majority in the senate, it won't change much, because most things still require 60 votes, and there's no way the dems would nuke the filibuster on policy just to send legislation to Trump's desk for him to veto.

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Control over SCOTUS confirmations. Control over legislation in general, regardless of cloture etc.

 

[plagiarize]

You could stem the bleeding on the judiciary though.

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True, true. You could slow things down there, which isn't nothing.

 

[bionic77]

Based on how America and Americans have been acting lately I think OP is correct not to get his hopes up too much.

Let's hope for the best but definitely be prepared for the worst.

 

[Sweeney Swift]

Don't take anything for granted, remember to vote

 

[Parthenios]

Remember how 2017 was a blitzkrieg of them trying to do all sorts of awful shit, but they've mostly pumped the breaks because it's an election year? If they still control everything after November, all bets are off come 2019.

 

[Empyrean Cocytus]

I'm fully preparing for the constitution to be in play after election day.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

I'd rather people be worried and vote, than say "they got this" and stay home.

 

[Mivey]

You should prepare yourself for another 4 years of Trump too by the way. And decades of work to undo this nightmare.

Click to shrink...

 

[Luchashaq]

Gerrymandering would need to be crushed in many more states for the house to even have a chance of flipping.

As for the Senate, the right seats aren't up for grabs for it to realistically flip.

 

[Ponn]

Don't be too afraid OP, massive increases to health insurance premiums in Sept are what is going to push a blue wave. I'm more concerned about Russia directly changing votes messing up the election then the blue wave not showing up once health insurance costs skyrocket.

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They will successfully blame that on Dems and Obamacare. Make no mistakes on that and do not underestimate their ability to shift blame.

 

[WillyFive]

Apathy will keep the Republicans in power.

 

[Blackage]

Good, this is the mentality you should have.

Don't take anything for granted, get out and vote and make sure other people vote too.

 

[ahoyhoy]

Gerrymandering would need to be crushed in many more states for the house to even have a chance of flipping.

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State level Democrats needs to step the fuck up then.

 

[The Bookerman]

Please just vote. You should make your voice be heard.

 

[ned_ballad]

Based on how America and Americans have been acting lately I think OP is correct not to get his hopes up too much.

Let's hope for the best but definitely be prepared for the worst.

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Based on how America and Americans have been acting lately, Democrats should easily take the house and have a great shot at the Senate. We have election data for the last year and a half, and it paints a very good picture for Democrats.

 

[Luchashaq]

State level Democrats needs to step the fuck up then.

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Sorry the DNC was too busy bleeding state Democrats dry and fighting candidates that are too progressive in primaries to give a fuck most places.

 

[Baji Boxer]

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

 

[nintendoman58]

They will successfully blame that on Dems and Obamacare. Make no mistakes on that and do not underestimate their ability to shift blame.

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Oh for crying out loud no they won't.

The party in power is always blamed for stuff like this and it is being shown in all the special elections held all over the country.

They can blame the Dems all they want, the people at large know they're spewing garbage.

 

[ned_ballad]

Gerrymandering would need to be crushed in many more states for the house to even have a chance of flipping.

As for the Senate, the right seats aren't up for grabs for it to realistically flip.

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The Democrats can take the House from just blue states. Actually, that's their most likely path.

 

[bionic77]

Based on how America and Americans have been acting lately, Democrats should easily take the house and have a great shot at the Senate. We have election data for the last year and a half, and it paints a very good picture for Democrats.

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I hope you are right.

But I am not sure I trust the American people as much as I used to.

 

[Kthulhu]

all y'all'd better go vote

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Yup. Doesn't matter wether you think the Dems are screwed or not, show the fuck up and vote.

 

[Luchashaq]

The Democrats can take the House from just blue states. Actually, that's their most likely path.

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There are many districts in blue states that have essentially zero chance of going blue.

 

[ahoyhoy]

Sorry the DNC was too busy bleeding state Democrats dry and fighting candidates that are too progressive in primaries to give a fuck most places.

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Cool. I can continue to say "Fuck the DNC" then.

Even if they take Congress they ain't gonna learn any lessons from this cycle.

 

[Deleted member 31923]

Yeah, that's a good strategy. The House will be difficult due to gerrymandering, but it's certainly doable to take control. The wipeout of 2010 and redrawing maps then was such as huge blow. The Senate will be highly unlikely due to all the red state races where the Dems have to hold. It would have to be a major wave for them to win back the Senate.

 

[Hindl]

I guess we're ignoring all the actual special elections that Dems have been dominating in for doom and gloom gut feelings then

 

[Luchashaq]

Cool. I can continue to say "Fuck the DNC" then.

Even if they take Congress they ain't gonna learn any lessons from this cycle.

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Even if they magically had a super majority in both the house and the senate I would expect them to bungle the opportunity and continue to be the party of center right cowardice while stumbling into a few decent things that would immediately be undone by the GOP next time they could.

 

[ned_ballad]

I guess we're ignoring all the actual special elections that seem have been dominating in for doom and gloom gut feelings then

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These threads always do. I don't know why I bother.

The only data that matters is data that shows Democrats are doomed, everything else (even if it's better data) doesn't matter or is fake, or "remember the polls in 2016" or whatever the excuse this week is for why everything is awful and nothing will ever be good again and the DNC are awful.

 

[Aaron]

There comes a point where reasonable skepticism crosses over to stupid pessimism.

Like yeah, don't get your hopes up too high I guess, but people really think the electorate will blame the Democrats for Trump's problems? lol I can't

These threads always do. I don't know why I bother.

The only data that matters is data that shows Democrats are doomed, everything else (even if it's better data) doesn't matter or is fake, or "remember the polls in 2016" or whatever the excuse this week is for why everything is awful and nothing will ever be good again and the DNC are awful.

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Always worth remembering how the polls in 2016 showed a Clinton popular vote victory and they were right on the money. Even when the polls were "wrong" they were right, too bad the system sucks.

 

[Shauni]

Gerrymandering would need to be crushed in many more states for the house to even have a chance of flipping.

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You can post a lot of pessimistic stuff without posting bullshit. So don't post bullshit. Gerrymandering is a big issue, obviously, but no, it's not even close to bad where there's no chance for the House to flip. The chance is actually on the high side now

 

[DontHateTheBacon]

You're doing the right thing.

Prepare for the worst there, just like we should have done for the 2016 election.

I am hoping that people more liberally inclined get out and vote, but I still think people in this country think the only election that matters is the presidential election.

 

[Conor419]

Of course they will. From what I can deduce from US politics, Republican voters are nutters, and 'Democrat voters' seem to actually be Republicans in disguise, or at very least are utter morons who trick themselves into not being able to vote Democrat on some bullshit moral grounds (see Hillary). All of it is a recipe for a sweeping Republican victory in the midterms. And I'll be here continuing to have a go at you fucks until something changes.