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Media Create Sales: Week 9, 2021 (Mar 01 - Mar 07)

Ryng™

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Charamiwa said:
It'll sell for a long time of course but we've yet to see at what rate. It hasn't stopped decreasing WoW yet while other games like MK8, Smash and Pokemon have settled. Let's see where its baseline will be but I expect it to be pretty low, and to be a very long crawl to new milestones.
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The problem with your post is how you are still talking about 12 million as a ridiculus prediction, when at this point it should be pretty obvius is the most likely scenario.
We know for sure this game will sell over 10 million soon, it can sell as slow as it wants to sell another 2 million in 5 or more years, when you keep into account boost from holiday sales.
 
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Succ-essor
Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
Ryng™ said:
The problem with your post is how you are still talking about 12 million as a ridiculus prediction, when at this point it should be pretty obvius is the most likely scenario.
We know for sure this game will sell over 10 million soon, it can sell as slow as it wants to sell another 2 million in 5 or more years, when you keep into account boost from holiday sales.
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correct. It was only really touched upon in the morning but RFA is the exception in legs due To the limited product it is. ACNH can sell this low and add on millions. I'll be posting a more detailed post soon about other evergreens. ACNH is at 9.19mil and selling above 10k still and NSW isn't gonna stop selling anytime soon
 
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Succ-essor
Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
Also anyone thinking sm3dw by end of the quarter can be a million seller? Sell thru retail will be at 550k+ and digital so it should easily be over 800k, possibly 900k
 
DarkDetective

DarkDetective

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
The Netherlands
20% drop every week for the next 3 weeks would mean 104.633 more units until Week 13. This would bring physical sellthrough to 581.020 units. /0.9 gives a physical shipment of 645.578 (unsold units: 64.558). 25% digital rate would mean 839.251 units shipped in Japan in Q1. 30% digital would result in 894.587 units in total. So somewhere in that 850k-900k range sounds like a realistic expectation for SM3DW. If the drop is a bit more shallow and the digital rate is somehow a bit higher (or, of course, more unsold inventory), then 900k+ is in the books.
 
Kakadu18

Kakadu18

Banned
Dec 31, 2020
1,140
DarkDetective said:
20% drop every week for the next 3 weeks would mean 104.633 more units until Week 13. This would bring physical sellthrough to 581.020 units. /0.9 gives a physical shipment of 645.578 (unsold units: 64.558). 25% digital rate would mean 839.251 units shipped in Japan in Q1. 30% digital would result in 894.587 units in total. So somewhere in that 850k-900k range sounds like a realistic expectation for SM3DW. If the drop is a bit more shallow and the digital rate is somehow a bit higher (or, of course, more unsold inventory), then 900k+ is in the books.
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So if it has good legs 2mil LT is basically guaranteed.
 
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Succ-essor
Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
DarkDetective said:
20% drop every week for the next 3 weeks would mean 104.633 more units until Week 13. This would bring physical sellthrough to 581.020 units. /0.9 gives a physical shipment of 645.578 (unsold units: 64.558). 25% digital rate would mean 839.251 units shipped in Japan in Q1. 30% digital would result in 894.587 units in total. So somewhere in that 850k-900k range sounds like a realistic expectation for SM3DW. If the drop is a bit more shallow and the digital rate is somehow a bit higher (or, of course, more unsold inventory), then 900k+ is in the books.
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previous data on the Mario comparisons, the hold from W4 -> W5/W6/W7 is great surprisingly. You might be spot on but I think hold might be better even if yours is the safer option lol.

I got you with the comparisons W4-W7 for the Mario comparisons (not adding SMO as that was a holiday game)

NSMBUDx
W4: 45k
W5: 34k
W6: 30k
W7: 20k

SMM2
W4: 46k
W5: 38k
W6: 36k
W7: 36k

If sm3dw can hold a small drop this week intill next and follow up strong I think it can manage 1mil as W14 first few days are in March. 850k-900k is safe like you said
 
CloudCircus

CloudCircus

Member
Dec 9, 2017
819
Looking at reviews on amazon JP, the new SOS is a disaster. Sitting at two stars. Tons of bugs and poorly designed/optimized
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,106
Ryng™ said:
The problem with your post is how you are still talking about 12 million as a ridiculus prediction, when at this point it should be pretty obvius is the most likely scenario.
We know for sure this game will sell over 10 million soon, it can sell as slow as it wants to sell another 2 million in 5 or more years, when you keep into account boost from holiday sales.
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I think 12 million is likely but not a certainty. Any predictions above that I feel are a lot less likely but it depends on a lot of factors (like future bundles).
 
WestEgg

WestEgg

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,050
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 4,839 / 1.789.500 <80-100%> (+12%)

zelda-wii-u-link-climbing.jpg
 
WestEgg

WestEgg

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,050
Djehuty said:
you forgot age of calamity

well i guess it didn't do nearly as well, but it still charted and botw's lonely so im happy it's still charting.
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I only post the climbing image when BotW has a WoW gain. I don't know if AoC has had one yet but I also don't have a prepared gimmick for it.
 
HaremKing

HaremKing

Banned
Dec 20, 2018
2,416
Oof that sell through for Y7 PS5. Hope it's on the closer end of 40% than 20%.

Momotaro hitting 2 million so easily is a hell of an accomplishment. Not sure what Konami had to do to get the IP back from Nintendo but clearly their efforts paid off.
 

Deleted member 15360

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,477
HaremKing said:
Oof that sell through for Y7 PS5. Hope it's on the closer end of 40% than 20%.

Momotaro hitting 2 million so easily is a hell of an accomplishment. Not sure what Konami had to do to get the IP back from Nintendo but clearly their efforts paid off.
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The numbers isn't much tbh, I really never saw the point of an sku at that price especially with BC and such a delay.

It could had done slight better at launch
 
MegaXZero

MegaXZero

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jun 21, 2018
5,079
foxuzamaki

foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,641
Yakuza carries prestige even as its sales keep dropping, it might just as well blow up again which is why sega can convince them to buy more copies
 
MysticGon

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
This could be a fun read.

s.famitsu.com

バンダイナムコ原田勝弘氏が徹底伝授！ 第一線の現場で通用する“企画書”とは!? 【ファミ通×ヒューマンアカデミータイアップイベント・リポート】 | ゲーム・エンタメ最新情報のファミ通.com

2021年2月6日（土）、ファミ通とヒューマンアカデミーゲームカレッジとのタイアップイベント“ゲーム企画のコツを伝授！　視聴者限定で企画添削のチャンス！“が、オンラインにて開催された。
s.famitsu.com s.famitsu.com
 
SunnyDays

SunnyDays

Member
Aug 28, 2019
212
What's the state of the PC market like in Japan? I see that according to Famitsu's White Paper from 2018 there were 15 million PC gamers and 23 million console/handheld gamers, I know the market's changed a lot in the last few years though. Have we seen any further estimates or information regarding this topic?
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Famitsu Sales: Week 10, 2021 (Mar 01 - Mar 07)

01./03. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury <ACT> (Nintendo) {2021.02.12} (¥5.980) - 53.603 / 476.387 <80-100%> (-28%)
02./01. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town <SLG> (Marvelous) {2021.02.25} (¥5.980) - 33.677 / 236.073 <60-80%> (-83%)
03./04. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! <TBL> (Konami) {2020.11.19} (¥6.300) - 31.760 / 2.006.555 <80-100%> (-22%)
04./05. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure # <HOB> (Nintendo) {2019.10.18} (¥7.980) - 20.197 / 2.433.274 <80-100%> (+6%)
05./02. [NSW] Bravely Default II <RPG> (Square Enix) {2021.02.26} (¥6.800) - 19.841 / 112.902 <80-100%> (-79%)
06./06. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 14.684 / 3.714.231 <80-100%> (+8%)
07./09. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 12.052 / 4.187.325 <80-100%> (+21%)
08./07. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2020.03.20} (¥5.980) - 11.731 / 6.680.145 <80-100%> (-12%)
09./12. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} (¥5.980) - 10.094 / 3.990.761 <80-100%> (+11%)
10./10. [NSW] Minecraft # <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600) - 8.760 / 1.843.633 <80-100%> (-7%)
11./11. [NSW] Splatoon 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 8.268 / 3.804.870 <80-100%> (-9%)
12./14. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics <TBL> (Nintendo) {2020.06.05} (¥3.980) - 5.075 / 654.740 <80-100%> (-13%)
13./17. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 4.839 / 1.789.500 <80-100%> (+12%)
14./16. [NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 4.533 / 1.838.142 <80-100%> (+1%)
15./21. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars <Super Mario 64 \ Super Mario Sunshine \ Super Mario Galaxy> <ACT> (Nintendo) {2020.09.18} (¥6.480) - 3.960 / 568.992 <80-100%> (+26%)
16./13. [NSW] Little Nightmares II <ADV> (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2021.02.10} (¥3.600) - 3.953 / 41.938 <80-100%> (-34%)
17./20. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Edition [New Price Edition] <RPG> (Square Enix) {2020.12.04} (¥4.980) - 3.669 / 76.868 <80-100%> (+9%)
18./18. [PS4] Little Nightmares II <ADV> (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2021.02.10} (¥3.600) - 3.096 / 22.922 <80-100%> (-28%)
19./00. [PS5] Yakuza: Like a Dragon <ADV> (Sega) {2021.03.02} (¥5.990) - 2.861 / NEW <20-40%>
20./26. [NSW] Human: Fall Flat <ADV> (Teyon Japan) {2020.06.25} (¥3.500) - 2.097 / 124.843 <80-100%> (-14%)
21./27. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2020.11.20} (¥7.200) - 2.081 / 351.561 <80-100%> (-13%)
22./23. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe <ACT> (Nintendo) {2020.10.30} (¥5.980) - 2.045 / 547.171 <80-100%> (-24%)
23./25. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2: Rhythm & Exercise <HOB> (Imagineer) {2020.12.03} (¥5.800) - 2.016 / 78.054 <80-100%> (-21%)
24./00. [PS4] Ar Nosurge: Ode to an Unborn Star DX <RPG> (Koei Tecmo) {2021.03.04} (¥5.800) - 2.008 / NEW <40-60%>
25./00. [NSW] Ar Nosurge: Ode to an Unborn Star DX <RPG> (Koei Tecmo) {2021.03.04} (¥5.800) - 1.986 / NEW <40-60%>
26./29. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe <New Super Mario Bros. U \ New Super Luigi U> <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} (¥5.980) - 1.973 / 1.041.106 <80-100%> (-12%)
27./00. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.06.28} (¥5.980) - 1.944 / 1.073.393 <80-100%> (-4%)
28./28. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin # <SLG> (Marvelous) {2020.11.12} (¥4.980) - 1.882 / 144.082 <80-100%> (-20%)
29./24. [PS4] NieR: Automata - Game of the YoRHa Edition <NieR: Automata \ NieR: Automata - 3C3C1D119440927> <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.02.21} (¥4.800) - 1.815 / 110.680 <80-100%> (-31%)
30./00. [NSW] Ciel Nosurge: Requiem to a Lost Star DX <RPG> (Koei Tecmo) {2021.03.04} (¥5.800) - 1.805 / NEW <40-60%>

Top 30

NSW - 26
PS4 - 3
PS5 - 1
 
tadaima

tadaima

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,845
Tokyo, Japan
Kakadu18 said:
Here's a bold prediction:
The Switch won't have a single week below 30k in 2021.
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I usually would agree with a prediction like this, but weeks leading up to new model releases tend to drop quite a bit. Seeing as it looks like a new model is on the horizon, it could see a slight drop in the weeks prior (depending on how it is announced).
 
Lite_Agent

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
Nintendo eShop Sales: March 4th to March 10th 2021

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo Switch

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01./04. – Among Us (Innersloth) [16.12.2020]
02./05. – Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury (Nintendo) [12.2.2021]
03./00. – Rune Factory 4 Special (Marvelous) [25.7.2019] (50% off until March 29th)
04./20. – Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (Nintendo) [01.12.2017] (30% off until March 14th)
05./01. – Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) [25.2.2021] (pre-order and launch discount: 10% off until March 14th)
06./09. – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) [07.12.2018]
07./02. – Bravely Default II (Square-Enix) [26.2.2021]
08./00. – Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) [27.10.2017] (30% off until March 14th)
09./00. – Little Nightmares -Deluxe Edition- (Bandai-Namco) [07.6.2018] (32% off until March 17th)
10./08. – Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! (Konami) [19.11.2020]
11./03. – Ghosts 'n Goblins Resurrection (Capcom) [25.2.2021]
12./00. – Part Time UFO (Nintendo) [28.10.2018] (30% off until March 14th)
13./11. – Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) [28.12.2017]
14./10. – Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) [28.4.2017]
15./00. – Final Fantasy VII (Square-Enix) [26.3.2019] (50% off until March 17th)
16./00. – Final Fantasy IX (Square-Enix) [14.2.2019] (50% off until March 17th)
17./00. – New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) [11.1.2019] (30% off until March 14th)
18./12. – Minecraft (Mojang / Microsoft Japan) [21.6.2018]
19./00. – 10 Second Run Returns (Edia) [21.12.2017] (80% off until March 16th)
20./00. – Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster (Square-Enix) [11.4.2019] (50% off until March 17th)

Nintendo eShop – Nintendo 3DS

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01./00. – Pokémon Crystal Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [26.1.2018]
02./00. – Excave (Mechanic Arms) [27.11.2013] (currently 50% off)
03./00. – The Battle Cats POP! (Ponos) [31.5.2015]
04./00. – Dragon Quest III: The Seeds of Salvation (Square-Enix) [24.8.2017]
05./00. – Pokémon Gold Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [22.9.2017]
06./00. – Bike Rider DX3: Time Rider (spicysoft) [17.12. 2014] (currently on sale for 100 Yen, instead of 600 Yen)
07./00. – Pokémon Red Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [27.2.2016]
08./00. – Pokémon Silver Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [22.9.2017]
09./00. – Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns (Marvelous) 23.6.2016]
10./00. – Pokémon Yellow Version: Special Pikachu Edition (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [27.2.2016]

topics.nintendo.co.jp

ニンテンドーｅショップ新作入荷情報 3/12（金）号。先週の売れ筋 TOP10もご紹介。 | トピックス | Nintendo

ニンテンドーｅショップで配信される新作ソフトの情報をお知らせする「ニンテンドーｅショップ新作入荷情報」！今回は、3/6（土）～3/12（金）に配信された新作ソフト情報と、先週ニンテ
topics.nintendo.co.jp topics.nintendo.co.jp
 
sfortunato

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,755
Italy
Animal Crossing sales trajectory nothing unexpected: you can only sell as much when you sell to >50% of the installed base. The game will keep selling over the years and will be a 12m seller at least. But at a certain point it needed to slow down.

Same thing that happened with Splatoon 2 which, at a certain point, slowed down considerable, and certainly not because of NSO, but simply because it didn't have many Switch owners to sell to. Splatoon 2 had a second life when a new, younger, audience was brought in to Switch by Pokémon and Animal Crossing.

Chris1964 said:
19./00. [PS5] Yakuza: Like a Dragon <ADV> (Sega) {2021.03.02} (¥5.990) - 2.861 / NEW <20-40%>
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How does it compare to Yakuza 1&2 HD on Wii U?

Chris1964 said:
17./20. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Edition [New Price Edition] <RPG> (Square Enix) {2020.12.04} (¥4.980) - 3.669 / 76.868 <80-100%> (+9%)
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This game keeps surprising me. Square Enix should be quick in capitalizing Switch success with new Dragon Quest games.
 
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