Media Create Sales: Week 30, 2019 (Jul 22 - Jul 28)
- Thread starter Chris1964
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That won't happen unless Microsoft go moneyhatting/funding a consistent number of exclusive/timed-exclusive A/AA japanese-focused next generation projects again, like they did with the 360. Possibly right out the gate too, because it's important to establish a different image, a 180°, than with Xbox One. Niche pubs aren't going to create that userbase themselves without a soundwave effect started by Microsoft actívely pushing a strategy to build an audience for those games, an audience that niche publishers can try to sell their games to. As it is right now it wouldn't make sense, there would be no actual benefit for those devs/pubs in putting some of their (faily scarce) eggs on Microsoft's lap
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This doesn't change anything, that BN gets easy money on Switch from these B-tier efforts doesn't mean this is the right thing to do.
Even if we assume PS4 will be the leading platform for these PS4/XB1/PC games I can't think of many titles that would sell more on Xbox or PC than Switch if it was included and that's the same for almost all Japanese companies that follow similar strategy.
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Japanese developers betting on Xbox next gen is a recipe for disaster. Small developers have no interest since there isn't audience on Xbox for their games inside and outside of Japan and for the big multiplatform it gets, sales pale comparing to PS4.
If there isn't strong moneyhat behind it's suicide to develop exclusively for it.
To be clear- wasn't necessarily trying to justify Namco's efforts. Just find it funny how well Fishing Spirits is poised to do when it wasn't on anyone's radar.
I don't think it will be crippled though. I know if it beats the ps4 LTD but I'm actually confident it will sell as well as the ps4 for at least the first 2 years and then sales should pick up.
It doesn't need the Vita. This time there's the switch. Any dev that needs the extra sales can do ps4/switch/ps5. There's also the pc too.
And again...in this scenario what sort of impetus is there for the market to adopt the PS5?
PS5 biggest problem in Japan will it's price if it launches at a higher price thsn PS4 as the chances it sells more than PS4 did during it's first two years is near zero and like you said the PS4 sold poorly in Japan in it's first two years and relied on the PSV.
Another problem is Sony is making itself less neccesary to mid tier and below developer than it has been the entire Playstation ecosystems lifespan. They won't lose support in such a worse case scenario but some consumers may not be as inclined to buy the device in the intial two years.
Ultimately I doubt this will be any cause for concern for sony and will likely progress on as normal. Even in a worsr case scenario this represents a percentage or two loss in worldwide shipments that can be gained elsewhere.
PS4 for the first couple years after the PS5 launch will be good enough
Yeah that would be a disaster.
PC doesn't exist in Japan.
FromSoftware Games, FF7R part 2, MHW2... those games will drive engagement toward the PS5.
They won't come before 2023 tho (exclusively)
Yeah so it'll be slow at the start and then pick up to a decent degree, just like the previous console.
Yep.
However, this time, it'll share a more significant portion of its library with a direct competitor (the Switch). The PS4 was not in this position with the 3DS.
Yeeeah, I understand what Kerotan is trying to say (slow start, but then sales pick up later on, as more content is released / the price gets lower), but maybe it isn't realised often enough how BAD PS4 sales were in its first years. Looking at Media Create numbers, between its launch on February 22nd, 2014 and the end of 2015, the system sold 2,300,000 units on the market. That kind of number in almost 2 years on the market isn't just low, it's very, very low.
4 years ago if you typed ARMS people would first ask why you're yelling actually
Yikes. I don't really see how the PS5 can do much better than that. It's probably going to be prohibitively expensive and have very few exclusive games.
Yeah PS4 should not be your bar for performance in the first two years.
The first 2 years are crucial. If Sony want to succeed in Japan with the PS5 they need (next gen exclusive) games like Monster Hunter, Nier and other big games early on.
Speaking of which, MHW 2 will probably release at a time when publishers are still releasing cross-gen games. I wonder if Capcom will go cross-gen as well or next-gen exclusive.
Ultimately a slow launch would be expected regardless but the biggest problem would remain the snail pace ecosystem growth. While PS4 moved slowly the PS3 was still selling the PSV was near it's peak and so terms of userbase growth the period was still reasonably high. The next generation PS4 will be near dead and the PS5 will start slow and any attempt to pusg one will canabalise the other due to backwards combatibiliy.
This means not many new users will be added during this period. Relying on the switch to pick up the slack creates a dependency sony has never really had before.
This means not many new users will be added during this period. Relying on the switch to pick up the slack creates a dependency sony has never really had before.
I think Sony will push hard for a next gen exclusive. I could see a 2021 release for that one.
Capcom will probably go next gen, they haven't shied away on that with MH worst case scenario would be something cheap based on MHW to build up the audience before the proper sequel.
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Who are these developers that will try again on Xbox again then next generation?
360 Japanese support at first years was based on exclusives.
Arcsys is a good example, they were big on 360 with no exclusives that I recall and then dipped on X1 this gen outside one BB port and being forced into it with DBFZ.
By the market you mean a few million people? Well there's no doubt millions in Japan who like playstation as a home console and enjoy its SW. Whether that will be 7, 8, 9 or 10+ million next gen who knows.
I thought I read somewhere that steam is becoming somewhat popular in Japan?
PC Market in Japan is starting to grow from what I remember. I can't say how big it is nowadays though.
It's probably not huge but I'd imagine it's forecast to grow to a level where it's relevant. I'm open to correction on this but if a game is developed for the ps4 it would be super cheap and easy to port it for the pc so while sales might be modest it could make sense and be worth the effort.
ASW also had the Kunio World Collection on XBO and published The Missing in Japan. They've pretty much dropped the system now though in Japan while going full force on Switch and PS4, which isn't an uncommon story. Even big publishers like Sega or Koei Tecmo have basically stopped Xbox publishing in Japan while still porting games for overseas markets.
If I remember correctly even the WiiU outsold PS4 regularly.
What titles would we consider that to be the case for Switch? Zelda & Mario Party? There definitely haven't been any pleasant surprises from 3rd parties, just some smaller ones here and there.
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Mario + Rabbids
Octopath Traveler
Super Bomberman R
Fitness Boxing
(Taiwan)
Media Create Sales Week 30, 2019 (22 Jul - 28 Jul)
01./00. [NSW] Doraemon: Story of Seasons (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.07.25}
02./00. [NSW] Fire Emblem: Three Houses (Nintendo) {2019.07.26}
03./00. [NSW] Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.07.25}
04./00. [NSW] Olympic Games Tokyo 2020: The Official Video Game (Sega) {2019.07.24}
05./02. [NSW] Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: The Black Order (Nintendo) {2019.07.19}
(South Korea)
Media Create Sales Week 30, 2019 (22 Jul - 28 Jul)
01./00. [NSW] Fire Emblem: Three Houses (Nintendo) {2019.07.26}
02./00. [NSW] Doraemon: Story of Seasons (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.07.25}
03./00. [PS4] Olympic Games Tokyo 2020: The Official Video Game (Sega) {2019.07.24}
04./02. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) {2019.06.28}
05./00. [NSW] Olympic Games Tokyo 2020: The Official Video Game (Sega) {2019.07.24}
According to the link, Doraemon is super popular in Taiwan, and sales of the game show its strength.
In Korea, PS4 sports games are very popular, that's why the Olympic is higher than Switch.
Additionally, Rune Factory 4 doesn't have neither Korean nor Chinese language options (language update coming this fall), so the game didn't chart.
Media Create Sales Week 30, 2019 (22 Jul - 28 Jul)
01./00. [NSW] Doraemon: Story of Seasons (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.07.25}
02./00. [NSW] Fire Emblem: Three Houses (Nintendo) {2019.07.26}
03./00. [NSW] Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.07.25}
04./00. [NSW] Olympic Games Tokyo 2020: The Official Video Game (Sega) {2019.07.24}
05./02. [NSW] Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: The Black Order (Nintendo) {2019.07.19}
(South Korea)
Media Create Sales Week 30, 2019 (22 Jul - 28 Jul)
01./00. [NSW] Fire Emblem: Three Houses (Nintendo) {2019.07.26}
02./00. [NSW] Doraemon: Story of Seasons (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.07.25}
03./00. [PS4] Olympic Games Tokyo 2020: The Official Video Game (Sega) {2019.07.24}
04./02. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) {2019.06.28}
05./00. [NSW] Olympic Games Tokyo 2020: The Official Video Game (Sega) {2019.07.24}
According to the link, Doraemon is super popular in Taiwan, and sales of the game show its strength.
In Korea, PS4 sports games are very popular, that's why the Olympic is higher than Switch.
Additionally, Rune Factory 4 doesn't have neither Korean nor Chinese language options (language update coming this fall), so the game didn't chart.
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PS2. The chances are slim but Sony will need big hits early on to kickstart a good performance. I don't think it will happen but Sony might be pushing Japanese devs to provide AAA content early in.
