I don't see any realistic way for either of those titles to get close to a million. Open to hearing otherwise, but that seems incredibly optimistic.
DQB2 could be a hit with younger audience that enjoy Minecraft, it has multiplayer unlike the first game and could appeal to older demographic who already own a Switch.
Mario Tennis Aces is probably going to get constant updates until the end of the year. Its also going to get two full holidays and during one of them will be the major new title from Nintendo on the system. I could totally see Mario Tennis ending up with
>500K sales by the end of August.
Yeah, Switch games are selling astronomically, no doubt about it.
BTW, are you expecting Switch to sell only 3.9M in 2018 total? 3DS was at 9.8M by the end of 2012, so Switch was have to be below 7.3M to be 2.5M below 3DS hardware. I don't think that will happen myself.
My bad I miscalculated i'm thinking around >
4.5M for the year - so >
3.5M for the remaining 30 weeks. So in the region slightly below
2M difference between the systems. It's possible that Nintendo blows my estimation out of the park, but we should have a clearer idea after Obon.
Re: Builders 2. The first one did 700K across 3 platforms, and Builders 2 has a PS4 version which will surely sell pretty well.
DQB's potential was limited because it was released across three platforms that weren't particularly popular.
I don't really think PS4 version would negatively impact the Switch version, quite the opposite.
Re: Mario Tennis. Other than the original that was released 18 years ago, no entry has even surpassed 400K.
Has there been a Nintendo 1st Party game with local multiplayer on the go that has under-performed in Japan?
Arms is closing in on 500K and it didn't have the brand recognition that Mario provides; it was also somewhat harmed by the release of Splatoon 2; Arms also had a far slower update schedule which I don't expect MTA to mirror.
I personally think MTA will get a ton more updates than Arms did - because it will perform much better WW compared to Arms(above
>3M WW by the end of 2018). Top that off with a better single player campaign and more time for the game to breathe(Smash is likely a September release),
I know Switch software is selling well, but I think this is way too optimistic.
They have a shot at
1M neither is guaranteed to do that well.