Tehran doesn't have advisers on the ground in blockaded Gaza, according to former security officials and other regional analysts, and it doesn't command the group's activities. But Iran has for years been Hamas' chief benefactor, providing it with tens of millions of dollars, weapons and components smuggled into Gaza, as well as broad technical and ideological support.
One source familiar with the intelligence noted that while the group maintains operational independence from Iran – making it plausible that the Iranian government may not have known about the attack in advance – without Iranian support, Hamas could not exist as it does now. In other words, this person suggested, why would Tehran be any less culpable if they didn't know about the specifics of the attack in advance, given that they enable the activities of the group that carried it out?
"That's why you can speak out of both sides of your mouth on this," this person said.
For days, senior US officials have said publicly that they have seen no indication that Iran was directly involved in the attack, even as they have condemned Tehran as broadly "complicit" because of its historic support for Hamas.
"We're looking to acquire further intelligence," national security advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters at the White House on Tuesday. "But as I stand here today, while Iran plays this broad role – sustained, deep and dark role in providing all of this support and capabilities to Hamas – in terms of this particular gruesome attack on October 7, we don't currently have that information."
