With the rise in popularity of digital systems and services like Xbox Game Pass I think that the Xbox Series XS/PS5 gen is going to be the last gen with physical games on Xbox and PlayStation.
I'm not talking about Nintendo here, mind you.
What do you think? The way I see it, by 2027 or so the physical game market will be pretty small for Xbox and PlayStation and the next Xbox and PlayStation consoles won't have a disk drive at all.
Edit 1: I think that comparing this to the CD market doesn't make much sense. A CD player is very easy to produce and a lot of companies still make them because of it, it's a very easy market to enter. On the other hand, it's very hard to compete with Xbox and PlayStation in the desktop console market because of their online infrastructure and the huge amount of games you can play on those systems already, it's a very hard market to enter (look at Ouya or Stadia), which is why I think that if both Sony and Microsoft stop supporting the physical format, then physical games are gonna be done. Also making consoles is way more expensive than making CD players.
A new competitor that supported physical games would have very slim chances to compete.
Edit 2: I don't think big publishers think that the digital format is a problem in developing countries when they launch games that require online connection in order to be played. Yes, installing everything from Xbox Live or PSN instead of from a disk takes more time but I think that most people in those countries would be willing to accept that. If something took 6 hours to download then it would take 10 now; yeah it sucks, but I don't think it's the end of the world. It's my theory that both Sony and Microsoft know that most people won't say "Hey I was interested in this new console but if it takes more time to download games then I'm not gonna buy it". Also, video game consoles themselves are already kind of a luxury in a lot of developing countries and if you have enough money to have a console in those markets then you probably have enough money to have a decent connection. Also, things like Xbox Game Pass are a very cheap way to play video games in those markets, which I think would make a transition to digital more easy in those countries. Also most people with no internet connection at all don't have money to buy a console anyway.
Edit 3: I have over 100 physical games and I don't want physical games to disappear.
I'm not talking about Nintendo here, mind you.
What do you think? The way I see it, by 2027 or so the physical game market will be pretty small for Xbox and PlayStation and the next Xbox and PlayStation consoles won't have a disk drive at all.
Edit 1: I think that comparing this to the CD market doesn't make much sense. A CD player is very easy to produce and a lot of companies still make them because of it, it's a very easy market to enter. On the other hand, it's very hard to compete with Xbox and PlayStation in the desktop console market because of their online infrastructure and the huge amount of games you can play on those systems already, it's a very hard market to enter (look at Ouya or Stadia), which is why I think that if both Sony and Microsoft stop supporting the physical format, then physical games are gonna be done. Also making consoles is way more expensive than making CD players.
A new competitor that supported physical games would have very slim chances to compete.
Edit 2: I don't think big publishers think that the digital format is a problem in developing countries when they launch games that require online connection in order to be played. Yes, installing everything from Xbox Live or PSN instead of from a disk takes more time but I think that most people in those countries would be willing to accept that. If something took 6 hours to download then it would take 10 now; yeah it sucks, but I don't think it's the end of the world. It's my theory that both Sony and Microsoft know that most people won't say "Hey I was interested in this new console but if it takes more time to download games then I'm not gonna buy it". Also, video game consoles themselves are already kind of a luxury in a lot of developing countries and if you have enough money to have a console in those markets then you probably have enough money to have a decent connection. Also, things like Xbox Game Pass are a very cheap way to play video games in those markets, which I think would make a transition to digital more easy in those countries. Also most people with no internet connection at all don't have money to buy a console anyway.
Edit 3: I have over 100 physical games and I don't want physical games to disappear.
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