More than 511,000 lives could be lost by 28 February next year, modeling led by scientists from the University of Washington found. This means that with cases surging in many states, particularly the upper midwest, what appears to be a third major peak of coronavirus infections in the US could lead to nearly 300,000 people dying in just the next four months.
The situation will be even more disastrous if states continue to ease off on measures designed to restrict the spread of the virus, such as the shuttering of certain businesses and social distancing edicts. If states wind down such protections, the death toll could top 1 million people in America by 28 February, the study found.
Even if states implement restrictions when Covid deaths hit eight people per million, as has been standard, the projected death toll of 511,000 will still be more than all the lives lost by the US in the second world war. America will face a "continued public health challenge" beyond February, the study, published in Nature Medicine, warns.
A further 130,000 lives could be saved by February, the researchers found, if 95% of the American population adopted consistent mask-wearing. The universal use of masks is a "relatively affordable and low-impact intervention" which "has the potential to serve as a priority life-saving strategy in all US states", the study states.
Around half of people in the US say they always wear a mask, according to polling.
"People have already formulated opinions on this," Redlener said. "It's become an ideological position, a symbol of resistance to science that has unfortunately become locked in. If Biden is elected we will have a very strong national mask policy but by then we may well see an active rebellion to that."
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