You can't get too invested in them - I learned this especially after seeing the mediocre films that were nominated for Best Pic last year (with the exception of 2 or 3 that were legitimately good to great). Add to that, the Hollywood Reporter posts articles each year around Oscar season of anonymous Oscar voters' opinions, some of whom are honest about not watching a lot of the screeners they get and just going with whatever films they happened to see and enjoy during the year.
I found that the Critics Choice Award nominees resonated much more closely last year with the films and actors I thought deserved acclaim. At the end of the day, you have to remember that the Oscars are not only political, but subject to the mood of its members many of which have the same biases as general audiences.
And for what it's worth OP, Dafoe got a nomination last year for a film it looked like only a handful of people even saw to begin with.