Burglaries have fallen by half in the last 20 years, and the burglary rate is one-fifth of what it was in 1980.
There are still about 1 million burglaries in the U.S. each year, though a decent chunk are of commercial properties. I believe the number of residential U.S. households is in the 120M range, so your chances of being the victim of a burglary in a given year are already pretty slim.
You are even less likely to experience it if you live in an apartment building with lots of units, if you live in a wealthy zip code or have a higher income, if you are male, if there are multiple people in your household, if anyone is routinely at home during the day, if you're not elderly or a student, etc. The places you're most likely to be burglarized are hotels, motels, and mobile homes.
Most burglaries happen during the day, when no one is home. They tend to be crimes of opportunity where a (typically unarmed) intruder is looking for quick cash. Most burglars, and all professional burglars, try to avoid confrontation. In cases where the burglar was seen or encountered—which is less likely than not—they are known to the victim as often as they are strangers. Statistically, the person most likely to rob you (and the most likely to assault or kill you) is your current or former intimate partner.
Crucially, though, the overwhelming majority of burglaries are not violent. In the period 1998-2007, when burglary was more common than it is today,
one study found that "Overall, the incidence of actual violence or threats of violence during burglary ranged from a low of .9% in rural areas based upon NIBRS data, to a high of 7.6% in highly urban areas." For the period 2003-2007, the
Bureau of Justice Statistics reported that in just 7% of all household burglaries, someone was home and experienced a violent victimization. And just 9% of victims experienced serious injury.
In short, your chance of experiencing serious injury during a burglary in a given year has a lot of zeroes on the denominator.
It's easy to lock your doors while home, and people should do it; there isn't a downside, and there are clear upsides. But fear of a stranger breaking into your property to do your harm is irrational; it almost never happens. Meanwhile, the U.S. is a country stewing in deep, toxic fear of the Other for complex historical reasons, and it manifests in all sorts of perverse ways, from the rancid carceral system to rampant gun ownership (which spikes homicides, accidental killings, and suicides) to something as mundane as the "true crime" media we lap up.
It is important for people to know that they are,
overwhelmingly, safe from strangers in this country. It's important because our widespread fear has consequences for society: it is corrosive for us to fret unduly about property crime and think of our homes as fortresses that must be defended from lurking shadows.