Do you feel the PS5 could be Sony's best selling console ever?
- Thread starter vivftp
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I mean, I said 4 years, not 2. And I say that as someone that bought a PS3 new in 2015.
Already addressed, but I'll do it again.
The PS4 doesn't have to sell better than the PS2 did after a successor launch. It only has to match (or slightly exceed) the sales of the PS1 to do this, and that's a certainty at this point.
The PS4 can also very, very easily sell for $99 if Sony was inclined to do it, since the PS4 is a vastly more profitable system than either the PS1 or PS2 were. It's not $299 now out of necessity, it's $299 because consumers won't stop buying it at a record pace at that price. Sony has no motivation for a price cut yet.
I'm not sure you understood my comment? Sony *manufactured* the PS1 and 2 for 12 and 13 years. The PS4 isn't yet 7 years old.
There is no reason to believe they would not manufacture it as long as the PS1 or PS2. It will continue to get price cuts over the next 2, 3, and 4 years to bring in more people currently priced out of the market before Sony kills it, which won't be before the 12 year lifespan of the PS1.
I don't think Sony cares about topping the PS2. It's about generating the most operating income along the generation. It's possible, but I don't see Sony pursuing that goal.
I'd agree. breaking the 155m unit mark would be fun PR for them, but at the end of the day the PS4 has already shattered the profitability of every other system they've released combined. Their goal is to maintain that.
No console is gonna outsell the PS2 and DS. There's just too much competition nowadays in the gaming space for that to happen again.
And besides, we're at the beginning of a giant global recession. The gaming industry has been doing gangbusters in the last couple of months. Let's see if that holds up if the situation keeps deteriorating (which unfortunately it likely will).
And besides, we're at the beginning of a giant global recession. The gaming industry has been doing gangbusters in the last couple of months. Let's see if that holds up if the situation keeps deteriorating (which unfortunately it likely will).
Correct. They don't need to sell more hardware than PS2 and it's clear with PS4 (and likely 5) they're not even going to try. Based on their financial results these past few years, they're making the right decision.
Don't think it's at all possible because A) fewer people have money and B) there's going to be an unavoidable scarcity that will prevent them from having as many PS5's to sell as they had PS4's.
I was going to bring up PSNow as well. That is something that the PS2 never had. I have a feeling Sony is going to push it a bit more aggressively going into next gen. A $200 PS4 with aggressive PSNow pricing would surely increase sales. I think Sony is also in more markets than it was back in the PS2 days too.
I feel the impact of a recession is being overstated somewhat. The market crash in 2009 didn't have any appreciable impact on console sales. Sony themselves made a statement some time ago indicating that they also felt the industry was extremely recession resistant.
I'd agree.
You touched on a point that's important. The PS1 and PS2 popular as they were eventually ran into a problem for Sony- as new software tapered off, those systems were primarily being bought to play used software, outside of the occasional Madden or Fifa game. That was good for retailers, but not for Sony. At some point it doesn't become worth it for them to continue to produce it, since they're not really seeing significant revenue.
The shift to digital drastically changes this- Sony maintains a constant revenue stream and even in the 10th, 11th, or 12th year of the system it is generating income via digital sales and subscriptions. The PS4 can even in theory stream PS5 games via PSNow if Sony wants to do that (not that I think they WILL, but they could for stuff like indies or smaller budget titles.) There isn't really a reason for them to stop selling it.
I read your comment fine, I just don't think they're about that 10 year plan anymore. We'll see tho.
They could sell the console for 99$, but they probably won't if the production cost of a PS4 is considerably higher. At the end of the day, Sony just like everyone else wants to make profit and starting to sell the PS4 at a heavy loss doesn't make sense just to seek a record nobody cares about.
My point is basically the PS2 could be sold for 99$, because the production cost were low. I don't think the PS4 can be sold for 99-150$ and this was a huge pull for PS2 after the PS3 released. It was just to cheap to pass on.
PS2 99$ vs PS3 600$
PS4 300$ vs PS5 400/500$.
Why? even the PS3 was manufactured for 9 years. Assuming they'd abandon the PS4 before 10 years doesn't make any sense.
Based on CEO Tim Ryan straight up saying it.
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We already know Sony recently doubled the production of PS5s to 10 million by the end of this year. Supposedly that stock will carry them through to the end of this fiscal year. That puts their availability at about 3 million more than the PS4 had in the same time period.
Because the PS3 went for 9 years I'm not expecting PS4 to go on for 11. And even if they stop at 10 exactly my original point of it not going on another 4 years will still be right.
But we'll see. No use in arguing semantics.
I don't think the cost of a PS4 is "considerably higher" than the cost of the PS2 at this point in that system's lifespan. The PS3 also got several redesigns as Sony sought to bring the price of the unit down. The PS4 has only really had one, outside of the Pro.
The current $300 price of the unit is also in no way related to cost of production. It's been far cheaper during the occasional sale.
Redesigning it to strip out costly parts and bring down production is something that could easily be done if the need was there- but it currently isn't. The system is still selling at a very high clip and Sony isn't "there" yet.
The PS3 "only" went for 9 years because Nvidia refused to engage in agreements that would allow Sony to cost reduce the console. Their relationship was extremely poor at that time. That's not the case for the PS4, Sony has the ability to reduce that system in cost as they did with the PS1 and PS2 without much of an issue- which was the point in going with AMD instead.
There is no realistic reason Sony kills the PS4 before the 12 year lifespan of the PS1. It is simply way too profitable for them.
If every first party studio made 2 games a piece, at the same high quality we expect for next gen, then I see no reason why it cant beat the PS2..
Fact is software drives hardware.. and yes, graphical fidelity increases game creation length, but I think Sony's focus on making game development easier is going to make the creators realise their dreams easier.. all this will mean better games... in a shorter space of time... for many more types of consumers, I do think PS5 could beat the PS2 in sales. Yes. As long as the Digital Ed launches at $399.. and gets to $249 and $199 before the next 4 years.
Fact is software drives hardware.. and yes, graphical fidelity increases game creation length, but I think Sony's focus on making game development easier is going to make the creators realise their dreams easier.. all this will mean better games... in a shorter space of time... for many more types of consumers, I do think PS5 could beat the PS2 in sales. Yes. As long as the Digital Ed launches at $399.. and gets to $249 and $199 before the next 4 years.
Recipes please. And what parts would you easily strip out of the PS4 to redesign it and then go on selling the console for 99$?
This is industry standard stuff. Was done with the PS1, 2, and 3 numerous times before end of manufacturing. The PS4 has only really gotten one major redesign in comparison, yet has had far less price drops than it's predecessor systems.
edit: again- not that they WOULD, but Sony COULD release a digital only PS4 with flash memory instead of a hard drive, and sell that thing as cheap as dirt compared to the $299 PS4 that's currently on shelves. There's just no need to do it.
If the PS5 offers a heretofore unknown feature that would offer mass appeal in the form of a bridge for a new technology (the way ps2 was an easy and cheap DVD player) then it's possible.
I actually thought that because the gaming space is evolving the way it has been it would have been a good idea during development to give a little focus on finding features for the ps5 that would broaden its appeal beyond mostly gaming device.
Edit: editing to say 'mostly' a gaming device because yes it has other features
I actually thought that because the gaming space is evolving the way it has been it would have been a good idea during development to give a little focus on finding features for the ps5 that would broaden its appeal beyond mostly gaming device.
Edit: editing to say 'mostly' a gaming device because yes it has other features
Just because something was easily done in the past doesn't mean it's something that can easily be done now. The last console they were able to bring down that low was the PS2, hardware that released nearly two decades ago when tech was wildly different. Cheapest PS3 ever got was $269, right around where PS4 is now.
Best case scenario is an official price cut to $199 with the launch of the PS5, but even then there's no guarantee that would lead to PS2 level legs.
Well your argument basically is that they've done it in the past and thus can do it in the future, when we know this isn't necessarily true. There is no smaller jaguar in development as far as we know and to make the PS4 considerably cheaper they would need to switch the process . I don't see it happening.
"just because Sony did it with every other system they ever made including their handhelds doesn't mean they'll do it now."
Will we see a $99 PS4? maybe, maybe not. Will we see a redesigned PS4 that is substantially cheaper than what's on the market right now? 100% yes.
Reducing cost doesn't mean they can reduce cost as much as with PS2 today. That was his point and he is right on the money. You make it sound like they just have to decide to produce a PS4 for less than 99$ in production costs to do it and there are no laws of physics, business, ...
No possible way it does that unless it's extremely low price or Xbox is cancelled maybe . Even then the switch is successful so it's still will be unlikely. I mean it would have to hit 150 million and the PS4 was it's best chance . Xbox especially if it comes out with Lockhart they will be more successful than X1 and PC will be more of a thing.
I already explained how it could be done, and there's precedent for doing it because Sony already has.
Sony makes money from bringing customers into the digital ecosystem. The easier they are able to do this, the more profitable it is for them.
TO THAT END, if Sony wished to, Sony COULD make an all digital PS4- as they have done with the PSP, and with the PS5. They COULD also strip out the hard drive and make it optional- as they did with the PS3. Hell, if you really want something to point at, you can look at the drastic revamp of the Vita into the screenless Vita-TV which took the cost of that system from $249 down to $100.
That would not only eliminate the cost of the optical drive and the hard drive, but shrink the overall size of the system drastically. Less material for construction, less on packaging, less on weight for shipping.
It would be much cheaper to produce than even the PS2 slim was, *and* bring in drastically more revenue than that system did because of the digital infrastructure that exists via PSN.
This is trivial to do IF Sony decided it makes sense- which given how much revenue is coming from the digital store (about 70% of all revenue, IIRC) is more likely than not.
Its been mentioned several times already but Ps2 was a perfect storm of several factors that just aren't going to be duplicated again. So even if covid wasn't a thing, my answer is a no. And then taking into account the inevitable multi-year hardship that covid is going to cause for most people, gaming consoles aren't going to be flying off the shelf at a level that keeps that kind of pace. I wouldn't be surprised if PS5 ends up in PS3 territory.
I don't know how recession proof many people here are on this forum, but there's millions of people out there more worried about how they're paying rent next month than buying a video game system and we haven't even hit the inevitable 2nd wave this fall/winter.
I don't know how recession proof many people here are on this forum, but there's millions of people out there more worried about how they're paying rent next month than buying a video game system and we haven't even hit the inevitable 2nd wave this fall/winter.
No, no way the PS2 LTD is beaten. Beating PS4 depends how well Lockheart does to be honest. If everything goes as currently expected then I think PS5 will do better than PS4, or at least have a higher LTD by the time of the successor releasing. If Lockheart does very well it could take some sales from PS5, but I'll be shocked if PS5 doesn't at least surpass PS3 (~90M) by the time PS6 comes around.
What is almost certain in my mind is PS5 will be the fastest selling console of all time. How long it holds that depends on a lot of unknown factors, but its first few quarters should be far beyond anything we've seen before. Right now I predict it will hold that crown for at least a few years until it comes across the Switch covid boost, which I'm not sure can be toppled.
What is almost certain in my mind is PS5 will be the fastest selling console of all time. How long it holds that depends on a lot of unknown factors, but its first few quarters should be far beyond anything we've seen before. Right now I predict it will hold that crown for at least a few years until it comes across the Switch covid boost, which I'm not sure can be toppled.
My post had an example of the PS3, which they were unable to drop that low. The Vita also didn't see nearly the same price drops older consoles got. It's been 15-20 years since they've released consoles that could see such low drops. The tech world is very different from the way it was back then.
Yes, I'd say it's possible. Springboarding off the monster that is PS4, Sony's first party IPs continue to go from strength to strength, and if they can make a significant splash in regions such as India/China.
The PS3 was unable to cost reduce to the extent the PS1 and 2 did because Nvidia refused to make deals with Sony. This isn't the case with the PS4.
It absolutely did. Vita TV was redesigned down to a $100 tv only unit. Nobody bought the thing, but it was there.
edit: this is a fine time to point out that the PS4 has a $299 MSRP, but Sony was sending PS4's out the door last november for $199 WITH THREE GAMES PACKED IN
This $199 PS4 Slim bundle with 3 games is the console deal of the year
PS4 Slim 1TB with the three best games around? Yes, please
The only reason that system isn't $150 right now is because people won't stop buying it at $299. It's not a matter of production cost.
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Potentially $500
Outsell the PS2
Pick one.
Nothing is going to outsell the PS2 unless it hits sub 200 regularly, at minimum.
Outsell the PS2
Pick one.
Nothing is going to outsell the PS2 unless it hits sub 200 regularly, at minimum.
There is no way PS5 outsells the PS2.
PS4? Yeah it definitely could. But not PS2. Unless Jim Ryan sells his soul to the devil of course 😈
PS4? Yeah it definitely could. But not PS2. Unless Jim Ryan sells his soul to the devil of course 😈
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Sony's ambition seems greater than ever, and I outlined a few points I felt worth bringing up to support that possibility. I thought about also adding the point that Xbox's strategy of not caring where you game and not pushing people to upgrade to a next gen machine could also be a deciding factor for people who are on the fence about which box to get if they're able to access content on their current Xbox or PC. I thought that might be a bit contentious though and didn't want to derail the thread but I still think it's worth considering.
Also, looks like about 260+ other people think it could happen and nearly 200 more think it's not completely impossible to automatically vote no. So I'm not alone in considering it could be possible.
So "They've been able to do it with every previous console except the ones they were unable to"?
And the Vita TV is a very different situation. There's a lot more you can cut out when going from a handheld to a dedicated TV unit. It's also an entirely different device than the regular Vita . . . That's like calling a Fitbit Charge a price cut of a Fitbit Versa.
What are they going to cut from the PS4? HDD, disk drive, controller? That would save them maybe $50/unit and it would be so gimped that I have a hard time believing it would sell particularly well. Who would it sell to? Old users aren't going to buy a more gimped version of what they already have and new users would need HDD space and a controller.
Even if they do cut stuff, other similar gimped consoles have failed to set the market alight. The Wii Mini, PSP Go, Vita TV, and all digital Xbox One all failed to catch on. The only one that's really had any success was the 2DS XL.
Additionally price contentious consumers are the ones that would be purchasing such a unit, and they're not going to be buying games on PSN at full price . . . so your insinuation that they'd make it back via PSN is flawed.
To top it off, they've said they want the transition to PS5 to be quick. Even if they could put out a $99 PS4 there's a good chance they don't want that on the market alongside their $500 new console.
The PS3 was expensive and paired with a cheap PS2, it was a slow start to the gen. The Wii was cheap when the Wii U launches, the Wii struggled to catch on. The DS was cheap when the 3DS launched, it struggled to move units. The PSP was cheap when the Vita launched and the Vita struggled to catch on.
Either way I don't think you're interested in having an actual discussion on the matter. You've been dismissive of what other users have said and condescending to them. Multiple people have told you that a redesign to hit a low price point isn't as easy as you're claiming and yet you choose to ignore it.
Xbox should do much better this time given they aren't entering it with shitty policies and have the right focus of their machine.
Secondly, currency movements since the PS4 means that unless the PS5 arrives below $449 it will be more expensive in some markets than the PS3 launch price in those markets. And we all know how that turned out.
I don't see the Series X differing in that regard, and so if people's general expectations on price come to pass I would expect a small contraction in the overall market size.
Secondly, currency movements since the PS4 means that unless the PS5 arrives below $449 it will be more expensive in some markets than the PS3 launch price in those markets. And we all know how that turned out.
I don't see the Series X differing in that regard, and so if people's general expectations on price come to pass I would expect a small contraction in the overall market size.
Sony's pretty clearly ramping down PS4 manufacturing and they've completely ended 1st party software support. They're planning a quick and complete transition to PS5 here, which makes sense after how their last 3 platforms went (PSP/PS3/Vita). PS4's probably going to finish somewhere around 125m which is still an amazing result.
Also, I see a lot about PS4 leading PS2 aligned and while that's technically true it's also mainly because of PS2's longer staggered regional launches and much longer global supply constraints. PS4 also had the advantage of a midcycle upgrade unlike PS2. If you aligned regional launch dates I bet PS2 would be tracking ahead and if you removed the Pro it certainly would be and by a significant margin.
Also, I see a lot about PS4 leading PS2 aligned and while that's technically true it's also mainly because of PS2's longer staggered regional launches and much longer global supply constraints. PS4 also had the advantage of a midcycle upgrade unlike PS2. If you aligned regional launch dates I bet PS2 would be tracking ahead and if you removed the Pro it certainly would be and by a significant margin.
"they've been able to do it with every console that didn't have Nvidia refusing to cooperate" So yes.
not really, no. Vita TV is an example of Sony stripping out everything they could to cost reduce when it made sense to do so. That they would do the same for the PS4 if it made sense is in line with their past practices. Implying that they're simply NOT going to redesign the PS4 to reduce cost is the statement with no basis in fact.
It's almost as if I didn't explain this already in previous posts. Sony already made an all digital unit, so the precedent for another one is there. Sony has stripped out the hard drive from PS3s, so the precedent for that is there.
which is why a PS5 all digital unit exists, because Sony is convinced it's a failure of an idea. It's not that much of a stretch to come to the conclusion that if there's a market for an all digital XsX AND PS5 as both MS and Sony believe there is, there's a market for an all digital PS4. Your other comparisons are quite frankly not applicable here.
There are a lot of things one can buy on PSN that are other than full price. PSnow is $60 a year, comes with 500 games. Sony blows out games constantly on PSN during Summer and Winter sales for as low as $9.99. Budget conscious consumers love these.
The market looking for a $99 PS4 and one interested in a $500 PS5 are two entirely different things and one does not prevent the other from existing. Sony is on record as recently as last week insisting that PS4 support will be strong and continue for several years. They are more than happy to have their PS4 on shelves next to the $500(?) PS5- and the PS4 has already hit the $199 price point during holiday season.
your analogy completely falls apart when looking at the relationship between the PS1 and PS2, which is the closest one to this generational transition, not the PS2-3, or DS to 3DS.
I'm willing to have a productive discussion with anyone bringing facts into the discussion. So far there have been many such as yourself that seem resistant to them.
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PS1 demand was far bigger in the year before the next-gen launch:
- PS4 FY19 = 13.5m
- PS1 FY99 = 18.5m
Launch year:
- PS1 FY00 = 9.3m -> sales reduced by 50%
The PS1 also only shipped 22.8m after the PS2 had launched worldwide (2001-EOL), the PS4 is currently at 112.3m even if we uber optimistically added the amount it did last year to the 2 remaining quarters (8.8m) we end up at 121.1m at the end of the year, together with the 22.8m the PS1 did after 2000 we arrive at 143.9m.
So the the PS4 would be missing ~11.1m if it sold as good as the PS1 after the PS2 launched.
For it to reach PS2 sales it would have to sell ~1.5x as fast as the PS1 after the PS2 had launched worldwide (2021-Q1 2025).
Good luck with that with PS4 sales already much lower in the last FY.