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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)

Who's Going to Win South Carolina?

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 585 39.2%

  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 853 57.2%

  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 24 1.6%

  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 7 0.5%

  • THE KLOBBERER

    Votes: 16 1.1%

  • Tom Steyer

    Votes: 6 0.4%
  • Total voters
    1,491
  • Poll closed .
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EricTheGamerman

EricTheGamerman

Banned
Aug 12, 2019
5,159
eebster said:
Anand with a great take as always
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This is just such a depressing point. It has been 30 years since the Soviet Union was dissolved, and we're still fighting that stigma despite the fact that Democratic Socialism is nothing like the Authoritarian government that the Soviet Union was with Communism as a front. And it really is indicative of a privilege that people have because of years of the gears of government funded programs being too well hidden and people not recognizing their everyday benefits from "socialist" policies.
 
EricTheGamerman

EricTheGamerman

Banned
Aug 12, 2019
5,159
Huncho_Houdini said:


I think people here are underestimating Biden quite a bit in SC. Unless young people really turn out for Bernie, Biden is likely to win it handily. Would love to be wrong.
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I hope the polling is a little more accurate this time then. Biden can win SC and not blunt too much of Bernie's momentum, but too big of a win and we're talking about a very ugly fight to the nomination with Biden as the clear frontrunner (alternatively, an under-polled lane of voters can go to any candidate so that doesn't necessarily mean it will benefit Biden as much as we might think).
 

infamous5445

Member
Dec 3, 2019
951
I still don't see how Sanders would get any major domestic legislation done with a Republican Senate + Vulnerable Democrats being against his policies.
 
SolarPowered

SolarPowered

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,215
EricTheGamerman said:
I hope the polling is a little more accurate this time then. Biden can win SC and not blunt too much of Bernie's momentum, but too big of a win and we're talking about a very ugly fight to the nomination with Biden as the clear frontrunner (alternatively, an under-polled lane of voters can go to any candidate so that doesn't necessarily mean it will benefit Biden as much as we might think).
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SC won't make Biden the front runner, but winning Texas on Super Tuesday might put him neck and neck as far as media narrative goes. Biden is done if Bernie somehow pulls off a miracle in SC, though.
 

FPX

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
2,273
Ashby said:
Man when is Pete going to drop out already I better not have to see him on another debate
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I honestly see him as the person least likely to drop out (aside from maybe Bloomberg) no matter how far down in the polls he goes. The way he carries himself sometimes, as if he deserves it or is entitled to it, is kinda scary.

Would love to be wrong though
 

Snowy

Banned
Nov 11, 2017
1,399
xero93 said:
I honestly see him as the person least likely to drop out (aside from maybe Bloomberg) no matter how far down in the polls he goes. The way he carries himself sometimes, as if he deserves it or is entitled to it, is kinda scary.

Would love to be wrong though
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Pete's funding will dry up after Super Tuesday, at which point either Biden and/or Bloomberg will be the only viable centrist alternative left.
 
darkside

darkside

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,330
Snowy said:
No Dems will get any domestic legislation done with the Senate, other than what they can get in with reconciliation. The Dems are not going to nuke the filibuster, they don't have the guts for that.
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... Except for the multiple candidates running who say they want to nuke the filibuster?

When the President doesn't actually want to get rid of it though of course theres no chance that it happens.
 
Tamanon

Tamanon

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,729
Pete will be one of the last to drop because he still has a good amount of fundraising going on.

Klobuchar will be forced to soon, because she doesn't.
 
Ziltoidia 9

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,147
infamous5445 said:
I still don't see how Sanders would get any major domestic legislation done with a Republican Senate + Vulnerable Democrats being against his policies.
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Any dem is going to be met with stonewalling from the GOP. Obama was the best president we've had in a generation and they STILL treated him like shit, didn't give an inch, and told the country every bad character lie possible. Trump acts basically like the GOP said Obama acted. "Divisive, racist, etc".

My point is, no one is going to get anything done with the GOP, but when it comes to Bernie you know he is going to keep pushing. Think after the general he stops? No, then he goes out and keeps doing the same stump speech in republican districts as he continues the fight.

All the other dems would just go into the whitehouse and just complain about the stonewalling from the GOP and NOTHING gets done.
 
lmcfigs

lmcfigs

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,091
shouldn't the filibuster question be up to Schumer, or whoever the senate leader is? How does the president simply decide to get rid of it? that's assuming we take the senate as well.
 
MilkBeard

MilkBeard

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,783
Bernie is speaking now at a national action network civil rights event and just did the "socialism for the rich" bit in reference to Trump. Keep hammering that point, Bern. It should be synonymous with Trump
 

Snowy

Banned
Nov 11, 2017
1,399
darkside said:
... Except for the multiple candidates running who say they want to nuke the filibuster?

When the President doesn't actually want to get rid of it though of course theres no chance that it happens.
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Congressional Dems are going to be the ones that have to make the call. Trump has begged Repubs to nuke the filibuster multiple times, and even Mitch McConnell of all people won't do it. If Mitch, arguably the ballsiest and least constrained Congressional leader of the modern era, won't do it, what makes anyone think a Senate led by Chuck Schumer or some similar milquetoast corporate stooge would do so?
 
darkside

darkside

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,330
If a president can't get a Democrat led majority senate to agree on nuking the filibuster then how are they going to get them to agree to M4A? Or any other progressive agenda you want to get through. Budget reconciliation is just simply not an adequate replacement.
 
Huncho_Houdini

Huncho_Houdini

Member
Dec 31, 2017
7,105
Bernie should want Bloomberg and Buttigieg to stay in the race. Bloomberg in particular siphons off Biden's votes; if he wasn't in the race, I don't think Bernie would be enjoying frontrunner status right now.
 
Sidebuster

Sidebuster

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,408
California
Madison said:
no democrat will get any domestic legislation done without the senate.
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GoldenEye 007 said:
I mean.... this is going to apply to all Dems.
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Yeah, I don't know if the people that keeps saying this:
infamous5445 said:
I still don't see how Sanders would get any major domestic legislation done with a Republican Senate + Vulnerable Democrats being against his policies.
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realize they're making an argument that no Democrat president will be able to do anything, not just Bernie. There isn't going to be some magic word that any particular candidate knows that will get the Republicans to do their job. On top of that, the policies the moderates are pushing are already so middling that even if somehow they got them through I doubt they'd do anything to actually move the needle. Because they're already arguing from the middle, and can potentially be pulled right by adding garbage to their theoretical bills like Obama did to get things passed.

So you're not exactly wrong that Bernie won't potentially be able to pass anything, but it's odd to single out one candidate when we know even without a D president, McConnel is already letting what, 250+ house passed bills sit in his office?
 
Yoma

Yoma

Member
Oct 25, 2017
638
I just hope Bernie makes it close in SC, then. I don't want a SC blowout for Biden and it's making me quite anxious.
 
Xx 720

Xx 720

Member
Nov 3, 2017
3,920
If Bernie can manage to win SC it's done, he will have it in the bag. Biden going to split with Bloomberg and Pete, I think Bernie can pull it out.
 
shamanick

shamanick

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,072
SC is important but if Biden does have a strong win and performs according to the polling we've seen for ST states, he's still done
 
Huncho_Houdini

Huncho_Houdini

Member
Dec 31, 2017
7,105
Bernie's best case in SC is to make it close. With Clyburn's endorsement going to Biden, it will be nigh impossible to beat him. But if it's a blowout against Bernie in SC, then Biden really really stands to benefit going into ST. It's gonna be a tense primary.
 
Madison

Madison

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,388
Lima, Peru
The good thing is that biden has no super tuesday organization because he has been running out of money. Even if he wins SC by 10 points, you cant built a campaign in 14 states in just 48 hours
 
Tamanon

Tamanon

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,729
Huncho_Houdini said:
Bernie's best case in SC is to make it close. With Clyburn's endorsement going to Biden, it will be nigh impossible to beat him. But if it's a blowout against Bernie in SC, then Biden really really stands to benefit going into ST. It's gonna be a tense primary.
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Yeah, especially after the Bernie campaign's focus on their multi-racial win in Nevada being so important.... getting blown out (a possibility at least) will look kinda bad.
 
Huncho_Houdini

Huncho_Houdini

Member
Dec 31, 2017
7,105
Tamanon said:
Yeah, especially after the Bernie campaign's focus on their multi-racial win in Nevada being so important.... getting blown out (a possibility at least) will look kinda bad.
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Yep, and it will leak into ST states such as Texas, where it is a very close race.

Bernie's real buffer though is California, where he is winning handily.
 
Papaya

Papaya

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,475
California
I think Biden has SC tbh. Biden did as well as he needed in the debate, and has been polling very well. If Bernie can mitigate the losses, though, that would be great for him.
 

Deleted member 862

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,646
Biden has been allowed to slide because he's bet it all on SC. People look at the Nevada result and just try and brush it off like "ah yeah well we knew that might happen but just you wait!"
 
EricTheGamerman

EricTheGamerman

Banned
Aug 12, 2019
5,159
xgalaxy said:
Speaking of McConnel. Go donate to his rival who is currently only one point behind.
secure.actblue.com

Help Amy McGrath Beat Mitch McConnell

We’re taking on Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. We need your help.
secure.actblue.com secure.actblue.com
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You're not going to beat Mitch no matter how hard you try in KY. Republicans have to be exceptionally shitty specifically to the people of KY to get voted out and only the most painfully moderate Democrats even get any ground. And you may be like, well, KY just elected a Democratic governor! Well, yes, he got elected in a state that can override vetoes with a simple majority by a legislature that is overwhelmingly Republican. Furthermore, while Beshear won his Gubernatorial race, every other race down ballot went to Republicans too. People should not be serious about flipping KY when the state went Trump by +30 in 2016 and he is still very highly regarded by much of the population. McConnell was the one to keep their Orange King in the White House and people hate Democrats broadly speaking across the board there anyway.

Mitch's seat is safe unfortunately.
 
Br3wnor

Br3wnor

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,982
Vector said:
This poll gives me a lot of hope. Imagine if Bernie and Warren finish Super Tuesday as #1 and #2 in the delegate count - that would send a really strong message that the Democratic Party is a Progressive Party.
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National polling doesn't mean much, need to look at state by state totals, Warren has significantly under performed so far.
 

Deleted member 8750

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,532
EricTheGamerman said:
You're not going to beat Mitch no matter how hard you try in KY. Republicans have to be exceptionally shitty specifically to the people of KY to get voted out and only the most painfully moderate Democrats even get any ground. And you may be like, well, KY just elected a Democratic governor! Well, yes, he got elected in a state that can override vetoes with a simple majority by a legislature that is overwhelmingly Republican. Furthermore, while Beshear won his Gubernatorial race, every other race down ballot went to Republicans too. People should not be serious about flipping KY when the state went Trump by +30 in 2016 and he is still very highly regarded by much of the population. McConnell was the one to keep their Orange King in the White House and people hate Democrats broadly speaking across the board there anyway.

Mitch's seat is safe unfortunately.
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It's a long shot but I see no reason to give up entirely. I'll toss a few dollars her way and hope for the best but expect the worst.
 

Vector

Member
Feb 28, 2018
6,658
Tamanon said:
Biden/Pete(or Steyer)/Sanders is the SC result that might drastically change the race.
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Agreed, and there is no way Sanders finishes below #2.

Steyer has been tanking in the polls lately while Sanders has been averaging about 22 points in the state.

I'm expecting a Biden win in the ballpark of 10-20 points, with only him and Sanders getting delegates.
 
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