Haha this is a total disaster. The result isn't that bad, though- Pete wins delegates and Bernie wins popular vote. Both walk away saying that they won. Biden in 4th.
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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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Re: the votes vs delegate count, there's some logical explanations that nobody will want to hear. 😊
But the simplest one is that in precincts that Sanders is not viable, e.g., less than 15% in the first round, voters can choose to either leave (and stick with a Sanders vote) OR go oveer to another candidate. Sanders has a very loyal base that is not as likely to jump ship to another camp. If Sanders voters in precincts that Bernie was not viable in chose to leave and not pledge elsewhere (which is common), he still holds however many votes that is but picks up 0 delegates for it. Meanwhile candidates who have fewer "True believers," like a Biden or Buttigieg, would be more likely to lose all or most of their <15% precincts, as it's unlikely that those voters feel passionate enough about them to walk out, they'll probably switch over to another candidate. Think about yourself, if you're a Sanders supporter and the only viable candidates in your precinct are Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobochar, and Joe Biden, do you think you'd switch to their camps, or would you stay true to Sanders? Now vice-versa, there are some Buttigieg or Klobochar die hards, but..... comparatively... not many, so they'd likely switch to another camp and not leave their vote with an unviable candidate.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong there. I have to run out but will update the post if I misunderstood it.
But the simplest one is that in precincts that Sanders is not viable, e.g., less than 15% in the first round, voters can choose to either leave (and stick with a Sanders vote) OR go oveer to another candidate. Sanders has a very loyal base that is not as likely to jump ship to another camp. If Sanders voters in precincts that Bernie was not viable in chose to leave and not pledge elsewhere (which is common), he still holds however many votes that is but picks up 0 delegates for it. Meanwhile candidates who have fewer "True believers," like a Biden or Buttigieg, would be more likely to lose all or most of their <15% precincts, as it's unlikely that those voters feel passionate enough about them to walk out, they'll probably switch over to another candidate. Think about yourself, if you're a Sanders supporter and the only viable candidates in your precinct are Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobochar, and Joe Biden, do you think you'd switch to their camps, or would you stay true to Sanders? Now vice-versa, there are some Buttigieg or Klobochar die hards, but..... comparatively... not many, so they'd likely switch to another camp and not leave their vote with an unviable candidate.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong there. I have to run out but will update the post if I misunderstood it.
Damn you should tell Buttigieg that, he didn't think he was winning early this morning.
Yup. There's literally no point to report just 62% of the vote at this point other than to back up Pete's narrative. It's pathetic
True. The problem is that there isn't really one candidate with broad appeal among all demographics other than perhaps Warren - but coming in 2nd or 3rd in every primary isn't going to get you the nomination.
Probably won't matter much when they hit the southern states unfortunately. Bernie still has a shot, but he really needed to start super strong here.
Right, ty. I can't find the AP live results page I was looking at last night that had everything neatly laid out.
He probably had an idea, they all had people on the ground reporting in. Fuck him for other reasons.
Sure. The system is crap. That doesn't make Clinton a good candidate though.
Warren is high spread, but low volume.
Who wins the nomination is whoever has the largest built-in base regardless of spread.
And that's probably Biden.
Bernie should have focused on killing the bullshit caucuses in 2016. How anybody could support this shit is beyond me. Now it's come back to bite him
Well he declared victory so maybe he did know something
I'm sure someone already said it but if it's by district, Bernie might have win fewer reported districts but had higher vote totals in them.
Essentially the same shit as in the 2016 general election.
Why everyone upset about partial results? Don't we always get partial results in any election and then wait for it to be updated? Just with the mess from yesterday instead of starting at 0 we start at 62. And now we watch and wait for 38 percent to be tallied and reported like any election?
Campaigns don't get to decide whether states hold caucuses or primaries.
He should've dropped out a long time ago but the YangGang have been delusional about it
I'm not one to wish doom on the world but I'm gonna laugh my ass off if the USA puts Pete up for president over Sanders, that's some next level self destructive decision making.
On top of this, their actual delegate counts aren't really all that much different. It's not like Pete blew Bernie out in delegates or like Bernie blew out Pete in votes. The best outcome from this is that Biden has officially had his shine of inevitability tarnished, which will hopefully trickle down to upcoming primaries.
It's like the electoral college. He could have a million people vote for him in one precinct but that one precinct only counts as one.
I've hard of tripping on... [struggling to pronounce] uh, "ayahuasca"... but I've never seen "Iowa" trip up like this!
🎤 😎 Folks...
🎤 😎 Folks...
Yeah but it's kind of shitty if this is their only update today.
I'm a Bernie supporter. While I still think there's a good chance of Bernie overtaking Booty when the rest of the results roll in, the real hammer has already been dropped. Biden coming in fourth could be big. If he keeps taking hits like this and eventually has to take an early exit, then at least we'd be avoiding an unmitigated disaster of a candidate. There's a chance that Buttigieg could supplant Biden in his role as the centrist nominee, so I'd love for Iowa to be predictive in that sense. I still wouldn't like it and I think Buttigieg is a fucking chump, but I'd much sooner cast a vote for him (or almost anyone else in the center/left lane) than Biden.
First or second, Bernie still has the ball rolling. There are SO MANY other states where he'll absolutely roll Buttigieg. No need to fret here.
First or second, Bernie still has the ball rolling. There are SO MANY other states where he'll absolutely roll Buttigieg. No need to fret here.
It just adds to the already massive amount of confusion where some people are going to be watching the news and thinking these are the full results.
but that's not how it works within states. a vote is a vote.
The last I heard they have no firm timeline for the rest of the results
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