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Oct 28, 2017
4,970
Not willing to risk it. I dont want that on my conscience.

The clear message is already there, bernie is winning. Any debauchery taken against him will just empower progressives even more for the house and senate as well.

If I were an American citizen, yeah I'd vote for Biden but I'd completely expect nothing, as his whole record in the senate has not been great and his claim to fame is riding the coattails of Obama, and expect him to get bounced in 2024 after the economy crashes. In that situation, you can only pray a Republican with Trump's maliciousness but with some interest in policy doesn't get into office.

Most surprising potential thing to come from Klob would be a Minnesota win which... wouldn't be that surprising.

I think Klobb wins Minnesota, but Warren on the other hand...
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220


All of this polling was also done pre-SC and pre-dropout. Really at this point anyone making definitive proclamations about ST is full of it. There is just too little time between SC and Super Tuesday, and too much has happened to project with much confidence what is going to happen.


Yup, there's a poll for every theory of Pete's support drift. It's so dart board I'm just defaulting to thinking that Pete's voters will just go back where they came from.
 

Nocturne

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,737
i hope all of pete's voters bought really hard into his weird new type of politics schtick and just stay home because everyone else is presumably an older, worse type of politics
 

Serene

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
52,602
What are the odds everyone not named Bernie and Biden has dropped by next weekend?
 

xfactor99

Member
Oct 28, 2017
736
imagine biden, sanders and warren. warren just hanging in there refusing to drop out and endorse. jesus christ its gonna happen isnt it

This may not a bad thing for Bernie if it actually is a 3-person race, Warren's diehards who will vote for her no matter what are professional women with college degrees who are not a favorable demographic for Bernie. Then Warren will turn around and throw her delegates behind Bernie in the end.
 

Prodigal Son

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,791
This may not a bad thing for Bernie if it actually is a 3-person race, Warren's diehards who will vote for her no matter what are professional women with college degrees who are not a favorable demographic for Bernie. Then Warren will turn around and throw her delegates behind Bernie in the end.
this bets that
A) sanders has the most votes in the end of the three, otherwise joe should get the nomination.
B) That warren would even give sanders her delegates
 

Tukarrs

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,850
i hope all of pete's voters bought really hard into his weird new type of politics schtick and just stay home because everyone else is presumably an older, worse type of politics

What does it say about a new kind of politics that rejects revolution (bernie) or status quo (biden) when it stops being viable?

There's no middle ground.
 

Bad_Boy

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,624
if biden wins progressives in congress will be treated as traitors for the jump
the window is only open once
I meant that progressives will get elected in congress. Not that they would support biden 100%


If I were an American citizen, yeah I'd vote for Biden but I'd completely expect nothing, as his whole record in the senate has not been great and his claim to fame is riding the coattails of Obama, and expect him to get bounced in 2024 after the economy crashes. In that situation, you can only pray a Republican with Trump's maliciousness but with some interest in policy doesn't get into office.
I mean youre not wrong. But im just worried about this year for now.
I'll be voting for Warren in California on Tuesday. I will support her until she drops out.
 

uncelestial

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,060
San Francisco, CA, USA

These have all been great. Biden's case is super under-whelming but, I do feel like of the moderate/conservative bloc (Bloomberg, Klobuchar, Biden), the fact that he's not an incredibly problematic former prosecutor like Klobuchar and... just generally not Bloomberg, AND wants to add a public option to Obamacare makes him the best choice of those three. At least to me.

Klobuchar and Bloomberg have so much blood on their hands when it comes to the persecution of black people and Blue-Lives-Matter-style cop defending, and I just can't stomach that in any way.

But I wouldn't be excited by the opportunity to vote Biden, whatsoever. I mean the central tenet of his pitch -- that he will get Republicans to go along with his agenda -- is out of touch and has been for all of last decade. He ought to know this given his vantage point in the Obama administration, but he doesn't seem to.

Very much praying that Bernie wins the day.
 

PKrockin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,260
It's kind of weird that people generally think voting for some third party or write-in is stupid and a waste in the general, but in the primary voting your conscience for some no-hoper candidate who has zero shot at winning is fine. Seems the same to me. I'm not saying you're being a piece of shit or anything if you do, I just don't get why you would. If it were me, I'd consider who actually has a shot at winning the thing, and pick the better choice rather than wasting my chance to have a concrete say in the election.
 

Prodigal Son

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,791
C'mon. This has been a hard contest but I still believe Warren is a good person who wants to see more progressive leadership in this country. I don't know what she'll do but I can't say "never" and neither can you.
if this were true about her she wouldn't be in the race anymore. someone explain to me how her being in the race does anything other than greatly reduce the odds that we have a progressive president?
 

Zasa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,769
Kinda curious as to why AOC hasn't been on the trail with Bernie right before ST. Such a powerful surrogate & she would fire up so many people in these huge Texas & California rallies.
 

Big Baybee

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,856
It's kind of weird that people generally think voting for some third party or write-in is stupid and a waste in the general, but in the primary voting your conscience for some no-hoper candidate who has zero shot at winning is fine. Seems the same to me. I'm not saying you're being a piece of shit or anything if you do, I just don't get why you would. If it were me, I'd consider who actually has a shot at winning the thing, and pick the better choice rather than wasting my chance to have a concrete say in the election.
Nah, I support voting for whomever you want in a primary. Also sad to see people trying their hardest to turn Warren into a villain.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
It's kind of weird that people generally think voting for some third party or write-in is stupid and a waste in the general, but in the primary voting your conscience for some no-hoper candidate who has zero shot at winning is fine. Seems the same to me. I'm not saying you're being a piece of shit or anything if you do, I just don't get why you would. If it were me, I'd consider who actually has a shot at winning the thing, and pick the better choice rather than wasting my chance to have a concrete say in the election.
It's not something I'm doing, but the line of thought is that you get voting with your heart out of the way in the primary so it's easier to vote for the imperfect nominee in the general. Not to mention that the third parties available in the U.S. are tin hat crazy so it wouldn't be voting with your heart unless you believe wifi gives you cancer also.
if this were true about her she wouldn't be in the race anymore. someone explain to me how her being in the race does anything other than greatly reduce the odds that we have a progressive president?
You're assuming her voters would end up going to Sanders when the second choice network hasn't had that smooth of pathing in effect. She's probably in it to win, but probably sees her only chance as a hail-mary situation where Biden and Bernie are within 2% of each other and a compromise candidate would need to be chosen. If she's third in delegates at that point, that would be her.

Her contingency would probably be using her delegates to put whoever matches her policies most closely over with a caveat of a concession or two (Likely in the form of appointment or dibs on planning), which would be Bernie.
 

eathdemon

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,690
I believe (pray) that if she's forced to drop out she will give her delegates to Sanders. However I also fully recognize that Sanders would have to meet with her and talk to her about what he wants to accomplish, and why he'll win. Basically he'll have to turn on the charm and hard.
that seems to be sander's biggest problem. his base may like his uncomprising, but thats not how you win a contested convention. colalition building matters, and by definition that means trades/comprimises.
 

uncelestial

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,060
San Francisco, CA, USA
if this were true about her she wouldn't be in the race anymore. someone explain to me how her being in the race does anything other than greatly reduce the odds that we have a progressive president?
Maybe she and Bernie have a pact that has them both staying in the race attracting a diverse pool of progressive voters for as long as possible, and the one with the lower delegate count drops out and pledges to the other when that would produce a majority (which would shut out Biden).
 

PKrockin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,260
Nah, I support voting for whomever you want in a primary. Also sad to see people trying their hardest to turn Warren into a villain.
It's great to vote for whomever you want most in the primary. But if it's Tulsi Gabbard and you vote for her, you might as well be writing in Cory Booker or Pete Buttigieg. The fact that she's still in the race doesn't make a few votes for her particularly meaningful. I guess I view the purpose of my vote as a way to influence the direction of the country toward where I want it to go, not some sort of public expression of my personal tastes.
 

Prodigal Son

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,791
Maybe she and Bernie have a pact that has them both staying in the race attracting a diverse pool of progressive voters for as long as possible, and the one with the lower delegate count drops out and pledges to the other when that would produce a majority (which would shut out Biden).
this is more charitable of a perspective than i have the ability to fathom, man. i cant

It's not something I'm doing, but the line of thought is that you get voting with your heart out of the way in the primary so it's easier to vote for the imperfect nominee in the general. Not to mention that the third parties available in the U.S. are tin hat crazy so it wouldn't be voting with your heart unless you believe wifi gives you cancer also.

You're assuming her voters would end up going to Sanders when the second choice network hasn't had that smooth of pathing in effect. She's probably in it to win, but probably sees her only chance as a hail-mary situation where Biden and Bernie are within 2% of each other and a compromise candidate would need to be chosen. If she's third in delegates at that point, that would be her.

Her contingency would probably be using her delegates to put whoever matches her policies most closely over with a caveat of a concession or two (Likely in the form of appointment or dibs on planning), which would be Bernie.

Set aside for a minute that she should drop out and endorse, If the race boils down in the way that it very probably will: Biden, Sanders, Warren. Will you continue to think her staying in the race makes no difference either way for Sanders?
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Set aside for a minute that she should drop out and endorse, If the race boils down in the way that it very probably will: Biden, Sanders, Warren. Will you continue to think her staying in the race makes no difference either way for Sanders?
I'm not saying what she should do. I'm saying what her rationale likely is.
 

eathdemon

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,690
this is more charitable of a perspective than i have the ability to fathom, man. i cant



Set aside for a minute that she should drop out and endorse, If the race boils down in the way that it very probably will: Biden, Sanders, Warren. Will you continue to think her staying in the race makes no difference either way for Sanders?
oh 100% sanders wants her out, but sanders has so far not shown to be willing to make the kind of deals that would get her to drop out.
 

Deleted member 10551

User requested account closure
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Oct 27, 2017
3,031
There rallying behind Biden aren't they. This might be a tough fight

It will be tough, but a 1 vs 1 is a fair fight.

From what I've seen polling Bernie vs Biden is about a 50-50 split.

There's nothing inherently unethical about rallying behind one candidate. Progressives largely went behind Bernie and shunned Warren because of electability.
 

Prodigal Son

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,791

fontguy

Avenger
Oct 8, 2018
16,259
This may not a bad thing for Bernie if it actually is a 3-person race, Warren's diehards who will vote for her no matter what are professional women with college degrees who are not a favorable demographic for Bernie. Then Warren will turn around and throw her delegates behind Bernie in the end.

This is delusional thinking. She's not staying in this race and explicitly attacking Sanders because she wants to help, and no one's giving anybody shit excepting a quid pro quo.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
respectfully i think her rationale is dumb as shit
Oh, I think it's dumb too, but I don't think it ends in her not giving her delegates to anyone as that wouldn't make sense and wouldn't help her in any way in the long term. At this moment, she has her best states in front of her as a good enough excuse. It's not like she's mathematically eliminated yet. Very very very likely not going to win, obviously.
 

Tiger Priest

Banned
Oct 24, 2017
1,120
New York, NY
i hope all of pete's voters bought really hard into his weird new type of politics schtick and just stay home because everyone else is presumably an older, worse type of politics

I was a Pete voter. I'm disappointed that we ended up with two 80 year olds but I'll be voting for Biden if it's really down to him and Bernie. He was a good VP and will help us reset the country. I'd be perfectly fine with Bernie as president (though I'm strongly against his protectionist trade positions and think he'd get next to nothing done except descheduling weed) but I don't think he can win.
 

UberTag

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
15,598
Kitchener, ON
It's kind of weird that people generally think voting for some third party or write-in is stupid and a waste in the general, but in the primary voting your conscience for some no-hoper candidate who has zero shot at winning is fine. Seems the same to me. I'm not saying you're being a piece of shit or anything if you do, I just don't get why you would. If it were me, I'd consider who actually has a shot at winning the thing, and pick the better choice rather than wasting my chance to have a concrete say in the election.
The one fundamental difference between the two is that 3rd party/write-in votes in the general go into the void and might as well have never been cast whereas voting for someone who clearly won't win a state or contend for the nomination outright can still be awarded delegates with which they may be able to help curry favor and/or influence towards advancing their policy initiatives should they hold on all the way to Milwaukee.

If that "loser" candidate has values and policy initiatives that most closely reflect your own, you should afford them as much influence as possible as opposed to writing them off before they've given up.
 

xfactor99

Member
Oct 28, 2017
736
This is delusional thinking. She's not staying in this race and explicitly attacking Sanders because she wants to help, and no one's giving anybody shit excepting a quid pro quo.

I'm not saying that's her intention, I'm saying that is a plausible outcome of a primary where Biden, Bernie, and Warren are all still-in. Despite the fatalism of some of the Bernie supporters in this thread, I maintain that when push comes to shove Warren is much more likely to throw her support and her delegates behind Bernie than Biden. They are close ideological allies and long-time friends become this campaign started, while Warren literally got her start in politics because she was outraged by Biden's support of a 2005 bankruptcy bill.
 

mAcOdIn

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,978
He compared Bernie to whichever general (he forgot who) decided to drop the atom bomb... because the Germans had almost finished theirs. And that he was glad they dropped it because it was necessary to save lives.

And he lost his train of thought for like 20 seconds unable to recall what's happening. His wife had to get him off the stage.
Yikes. Hope nobody tells him Germany had surrendered before we dropped the atomic bombs on Japan.

Though to be honest, to me the dropping of the atomic bombs is a neutral issue, I feel no strong way in either direction because all of the scenarios were shit. Sitting back and continuing to wipe out towns and villages with conventional bombs would have killed just as many, actually trying to start a land invasion and take Japan before the USSR arrived on the scene would have likely killed even more people, risking the Soviet Union taking Japan would have also been horrific, dropping the two atomic bombs was clearly horrible, there was a best path forward in hindsight as the Emperor did want to surrender just had to deal with coups and shit, I'm just glad I didn't have to make any of those decisions.
if biden wins progressives in congress will be treated as traitors for the jump
the window is only open once
I feel Progressives played this all wrong. Honestly speaking they are traitors to a degree, they're out primarying safe seats and using that to claim they can win nationally instead of going out there and unseating Republicans and coming back to the Moderates with scalps. Granted, I don't begrudge any of them for doing what they did, AOC lives where she lives and it's perfectly fine for her to feel Crowley didn't represent her District well, that's democracy. I can't expect every charismatic Democratic Socialist to have the funds to run a carpetbagger campaign like Cenk's doing, so, the people we have are who we have and we have to play that hand. But as Progressives we're basically mansplaining to the party what can win the entire country without having shown it in recent history where at least the Moderates, while they do have some national defeats they also do have some national victories under their belts as well, in every current voters' lifetime too.

Unfortunately, this election's not going to be a good test regarding whether Progressivism is viable in this country or not, unseating an incumbent is HARD, it's possible none of our candidates can win, but that sure as hell is not going to stop Moderates from blaming Progressives if Sanders loses to Trump or Progressives blaming Moderates if Biden loses to Trump. And while I can't hate someone who thinks Sanders can't win, not out of a dislike of his policies but just electorally and understand why some in the Democratic Party may feel robbing him in the convention is the best thing for the country, I don't know what internal polling and shit they have, they do have to understand I have absolutely no way of separating who's doing it purely for electoral reasons versus who'd be doing it for purely ideological or cronyist reasons. If they go that route it will be a shit show.

In my perfect scenario my preferred way to play it would have been to run a Progressive against a non-incumbent without any incumbent advantage, but after 2016 that left Bernie off the table and I don't know who the hell could fill his shoes by 2024. I'd have preferred to have seen more money spent primarying Republican seats than Democratic seats but then the squad likely wouldn't be here either and for the most part they're also a good example. But, current hand being what it is this is likely the best time to go for it despite the long odds.

Politics fucking sucks.
 
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