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Coronavirus Discussion Thread (See Staff Post) [UPDATE: WHO declares global emergency. See threadmarks]
- Thread starter Deleted member 19070
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- COVID
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Crazy antivaxxers aside, Idk if I'd want to take an experimental new vaccine rushed to the world stage without proper clinical testing either.
Thanks for the involuntary facepalm
It was posted here earlier. I watched the first 3. I had never seen or heard him before.
I mean, it's mostly a science lesson and a roundup of information. So I feel like the people screaming fake because he changed jobs after getting a degree in neuro toxicology at Duke are showing their ass a bit.
People can be experts in a field or knowledgeable while still doing things or reaching certain conclusions you might not agree with. You dont have to watch the vid....I'm just confused. It's like leaving a science lesson where everything clicked and then you get told "nah that teacher doesnt brush his teeth, so no point listening to him."
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so could you kindly explain me the missteps in my reasoning?
I think this one should be self-evident, but here goes: When extracting statistical data that applies to a whole population (ie: people sick with coronavirus), you can't take an arbitrary parameter, disqualify 90% of the data, then extrapolate a result based on the data left over and then retroactively apply it to the disqualified population. That's not how any of this works.
You casually assumed that nCoV has a 55% mortality rate with no underlying evidence supporting that nCoV is one of the most lethal infections ever to grace mankind.
Not sure i quite understand the math here but as far as i see it, if your total number is 6057 people infected, and of that sample size 5085 people are not yet out of treatment, then there is simply no way to come up with ANY kind of conclusion at ALL at this moment? Not until the treatment of those 5085 people is over anyway to be able to make a statement about the outcome.
The guy is a borderline New World Order / FED Controls the world / BUY GOLD dipshit. His videos are based on the assumption that we're all about to die and we need to listen to Ron Paul for investment and economic advice.
Because of this, his videos have an obvious bias and he uses some data to draw his own conclusions not based on the evidence, but based on his world view.
He is also making sweeping generalization even though he has the same amount of information as the rest of us, which is not a lot.
Yea, that's what I meant. He's not using the data to explain the data, he's using the data to push his soft-NWO world view.
It's not really a huge cause for alarm until there are confirmed cases of domestic transmittance. There are 10 confirmed cases of Chinese tourists from the affected region in China with the virus and they have all been contained so far. It'll be more worrying when there is a case of infection in the wild. Fingers crossed though. Taiwan only just got their first confirmed case of it being transmitted domestically.
well I didn't ever claim to be an expert in statistics, I just did some quick maths, and I didn't put my conclusion in an assertive way, thus it's not that self-evident to someone like me who isn't familiar with this kind of stuff.
I raise you a question, then: if we can't assume anything about people still in treatment, is there a way to project a death rate? Is it still to early or sample size too low? Thank you.
Sample size is too low. 55% is bubonic plague territory in the Middle Ages before medicine was a thing.
To give you the answer you need: the recovered number doesn't mean what you think it means. It's purely based off some hospitalization recovered like people that got severe complications and then recovered. While it does seem super scary there have been tons of people that didn't require hospitalization that "recovered" but are not included in those counts. Does that make sense?
Sure, any of those sweeping generalizations in the podcast or first two updates? I repeated a lot of his information from the podcast posted here and the first two updates and want to know which parts were false.
In infection cases, the first people to die generally have very strong copatologies, as we're facing right now with most people dying being either very old with a slew of secondary issues or having HIV.
The fact that he says it is worse than what we are told while having zero data on it. The fact that he is playing up that the world health organization, who are full of experts who have more information than he does, is mistaken for not calling this a pandemic or downplaying the risk. The fact that his most recent video is about the stock market and how this will destroy it. The problem isn't so much the data he talks about as much as the way he is interpreting the data we have.
I think it's about time I put this thread on ignore. The amount of fake news, faulty logic, fearmongering and lowkey racism/xenophobia is getting ridiculous in here, for a disease that is still mostly localized within the borders of its country, and has very few international cases, and virtually no deaths.
Maybe I'll undo the ignore if/when this pandemic stops being speculation and starts being reality.
Maybe I'll undo the ignore if/when this pandemic stops being speculation and starts being reality.
10 people got into a car accident and 1 person die on scene while 9 has to stay in hospital due to broken leg/arm. So you have 1 death and 0 recovered (it takes a month or 2 for your bone to heal), does it mean the death rate of the accident is 100%?
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There was a new medical paper published (no peer review yet) about "single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative receptor of Wuhan 2019-nCov"
Don't know if this series of images have been posted before:
Nurses from different parts of China cut each other's hair in preparation for deployment to Wuhan, the epicentre of the Novel Coronavirus outbreak.
Nurses from different parts of China cut each other's hair in preparation for deployment to Wuhan, the epicentre of the Novel Coronavirus outbreak.
First case in Finland confirmed, a 32 year-old tourist from Wuhan who was visiting Lapland:
https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finlands_first_coronavirus_case_confirmed_in_lapland/11182855
https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finlands_first_coronavirus_case_confirmed_in_lapland/11182855
Thank you for this. The Pandemic book by Sonia Shah looks like an interesting read.
thanks, I needed the chuckle, never would've thought i'll get it in this thread of all places
If anyone is interested, the Lancet published a new study of nCov-2019 involving the characteristics of the disease.
It was only a matter of time considering the amount of Chinese people in Finland. Almost surely won't be the last case either.
Also not surprised if cases get clustered to Lapland region, they love to hit it up during Winter time.
Hope it doesn't get too bad in Finland as apparently we don't have that many intensive care units if shit hits the fan hard.
Looks like 23% went to the ICU and 11% died of multiple organ failure.
Hopefully the mortality is still around 3% at most but there's the possibility it could be closer to SARS.
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Someone linked me to this press twitter from the IE.
They retweeted some of their reporters about the information.
Assuming you're talking about this tweet (saw it retweet by that account) -
These are the US consulate workers (and whoever else had the money and connections to get on that plane). There are no commercial flights going out of Wuhan right now.
Keep in mind that it only included patients tested and treated at the hospital. Less severe cases who were not admitted would likely be excluded, although I can't tell from the article if they only included admitted patients. It would also exclude anyone who wouldn't seek hospital care in the first place; ie less severe cases.
The study population isn't representative of the general population. The aim of the study was to identify the clinical characteristics in patients seeking hospital care to aid doctors in early detection of nCoV, not to make an epidemiological assessment of overall severity.
The WHO numbers have kept severe cases at 20 % of total cases for a few days now. If the case fatality rate in that sub-group is around 10 %, the total case fatality rate would be 2 %, in line with the current WHO fatality numbers.
Thank you. I was not surprised that most admitted tended to be older, but am surprised to find that twice as many men have been hospitalized compared to women. I was reminded of the prevalence of smoking among Chinese men, and leaves me wondering if that's what's sensitizing those who have been gravely affected.
We're (still) in the centennial of the flu pandemic that killed 50-100 million people, seems a good a time as any to remind people that they should get immunized this year if they're able. Lotta folks that can't, or the immunocompromised, that benefit from the protection.
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Anecdotal but I work in the shipping industry near a college. A lot of Chinese students have been buying tons of masks and shipping them home to family and friends.
One student sent 30 masks and paid $600 to get them there.
i hope the student bought n95 masks, because everything else is useless and a waste of money.
You should see Craigslist in Vancouver right now, people trying to profit off panic by selling masks at a massive price hike. Ghouls
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