CNN poll: Biden falls to 22%; Harris surges to second; Sanders drops to fourth
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Then what do you say about the other front runners having neither Bernie nor Biden as their second choices anymore?
WHEW LAWD CHILD.
Like, don't get me wrong, I'm happy for the homegirl Kamala here, but...
...damn, Beto, this is a colossal fuck up.
Bernie's stump speech is obviously his strong suit and being repetitive is a good thing because this is about advertising, not serialized drama. He also does answer questions while doing so, and his answers are fine.
Warrens strength is in telling a story about both individuals and the system at large, and being clear about how we can change things to be better.
Harris outside of face to face confrontational moments seems like a typical politician most of the time, not too unlike Hillary. I'm curious what other debate moments stood out to you that could be replicated outside of the debates.
I'm confused about what you're looking for here. You said Kamala doesn't perform well outside of the debates. You were given an example of Kamala performing well outside of the debates. So why do you keep going back to the debates?
Harris is a great speaker in any situation. She's more comparable to Obama than Hillary. She sounds passionate, sincere, and articulates her arguments extremely well.
Harris would never choose Gabbard. They're not even in the same spheres or social groups, and Gabbard would provide nothing to Harris.
I mean, you say that but is doesn't seem to be helping him electorally. If anything, it hurts him to be seen as a candidate who has to continuously go to greatest hits to make a point. People want serialized drama, not a commercial from politicians. Thinking that's a strength is what killed him in 2016 and will kill him in this election.
Warren's strength is being able to answer most questions she's given in detail, not oratory portion of that.
If you're trying to say she's not particularly good at rally speeches then, you know what, I agree. I'd say she's better at it than most of the contenders, though. Her strength is interviews, debates, town halls. Which is to say: all the things people actually have a chance at watching and paying attention to to change their mind. She's not at all similar to Hillary in a slew of ways.
Yep. The most damning thing I've heard about Biden's performance, from Ezra Klein, was that even though Biden is running as a continuation of the Obama years, he wasn't the most "Obama--like" candidate on the stage. That was definitely Harris.
Im at work and can't really critique that segment in particular at the moment. That's just my overall feel from what I have seen. It's a very subjective subject, so you're free to disagree.
Curious as to what the last time someone gained as much clout from one debate as Harris did from Night 2..
There have been several polls and articles about voters' second choices.
2020 Democratic Primary
morningconsult.com
Thanks. That is really so strange. Any conventional logic should point to Warren being the next best option after Bernie, if you're voting off policy anyway. If you're choosing on "brand" then I guess Biden being second makes sense.
Perhaps because people are flip flopping so much around the candidates. I think we will keep seeing this until January or even February. If there´s a 10% margin from 1st to 4th it means it still a wide open race with a lot of changes each month depending on news and factoids.
Most people aren't voting off of policy. I would say it's a vanishingly small minority that do this.
Bernie and Biden have so many overlapping voters because there is still a very large percentage of the electorate that does not/will not pay much attention, and those two have the greatest name recognition. It's "guy I've heard of" followed by "other guy I've heard of" and a slew of "who is that"
Welp, I guess I should at least be thankful that Bernie has more recognition than Biden.
That was wrong, I was trying to say I guess I should be thankful that of the people that know both Bernie and Biden they choose Bernie first.
Would never happen. Female/Female ticket not being a great idea aside (Harris would want a running mate strong in demographics that she isn't), Warren is 70 years old, and a VP spot would be less than useless for her.
honestly, warren would be wasted as veep
she would be great as prez but she is doing too much good as a senator, to be wasted sitting around doing fuckall as veep
she would be great as prez but she is doing too much good as a senator, to be wasted sitting around doing fuckall as veep
Only if Harris needs one of the others to give her the votes to get to 50%+1 in the convention voting. Warren is the obvious option of the 3.
I don't think this is the case anymore in the post-Obama world (in terms of gender/race). It's not like someone who has a problem with voting for a woman is going to be suddenly okay with it because the VP is a man, that doesn't make sense.
It's way too early, but my top picks for "electable" tickets (using only P candidates in the VP slot):
1. Sanders/Harris
2. Warren/Castro
3. Harris/I-don't-know-who-could-help-this-ticket-in-the-general-maybe-Sanders-but-he-wouldn't-settle-for-VP
I disagree. Have you seen America?
If Harris gets the nom, I'm convinced she'll choose a white dude as her running mate, like Obama did with Biden. Beto is prime VP material whether anyone here likes it or not.
"But he'd do more good in Texas" comments in 3... 2... 1...
"But he'd do more good in Texas" comments in 3... 2... 1...
This is the exact opposite of what is happening.
Sanders and biden have virtually universal name recognition. only 3% don't know who biden is, and about 3% for sanders (this is within the margin of error, they're basically the same here).
Support though?
Biden has always led Sanders in national support, despite universal name recognition for both even when Biden wasn't actually running. As soon as Biden DID announce, Bernie's supporters jumped ship to Biden and never looked back.
It makes sense for the same reason Biden made sense for Obama. You use your VP as a campaign surrogate to campaign in places like the rust belt where you're weakest.
Booty for instance is inexplicably strong in the midwest and among white people in GENERAL. If not for his 0% support among african americans he'd be polling around 10% or so nationally- which is surprisingly strong for a mayor from indiana with no other relevant experience. Pete is also a monster fundraiser, in no small part because wealthy LGBT donors love him.
2016 Bernie got his base based on policies. This time around, I have no doubt there are some that are supporting Bernie due to name recognition alone. But the majority of his support? Nah. Biden is riding off of Obama.
If it's going to be a brokered convention, we might get [First Place]|[Second Place]. That could very well be Harris|Sanders, but he does need to stay in the Senate.
2016 Sanders got a lot of support based on not being Hillary Clinton.
As for support: (from Quinnipiac)
DEBATE Q6............ ATTN TO PRES CAMPAIGN Q1
Paid Little/
Watch Attn No Attn A lot Some None
Biden 18% 29% 17% 21% 27% 18%
Sanders 8 13 24 10 14 22
Of those who paid "no attention" to the debate at all, 24% support sanders. Of those paying "no" attention to the presidential campaign, 22% support sanders.
This is inexplicably WORSE than Biden's numbers (17% and 18%, respectively).
Of those who watched the debate, sanders comes in fourth at 8%, well behind Harris, Warren, and Biden and barely above Pete at 6%. Of those who pay "a lot" of attention to the presidential campaign, Sanders is again a distant fourth at 10%.
Sanders is coasting on name recognition from 2016 and little else. The more attention one pays to the race, the less likely they are to support Sanders. Without those not paying any attention to anything, he'd be in the basement with Booker and O'rourke.
Much prefer Sanders versus Harris...her record as DA is not exactly progressive...Much more interested in voting record and practice rather than mere rhetoric or debating performance...
Man, its way too early to be talking about a brokered convention.
She was actually pretty progressive as DA. It was her time as CA AG that was more controversial.
Part of his base was based on policies. Part of it was based on not being Hillary Clinton. 538 did a good breakdown of that earlier this year laying out that the latter having more conservative options was going to be an issue for him. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-was-helped-by-the-neverhillary-vote-what-does-that-mean-for-his-chances-now/
I still think biden + bernie are the strongest so for.
Bernie because he is well known, did well in the 2016 primaries and his "we need a political revolution, where the top 1% don't have more more then the bottom 99%" is thought provoking and the way bernie delivers it makes it stick, he has Somwhat of an entertaining factor in a political freedom fighter kinda way for the low + middle class.
Biden was VP to Obama, so ppl know him and his "unions" and talk of how a job is more then just a paycheck is rather inspiring, he also repeats this a lot.
So to me sanders is the revolution guy and biden is the union + jobs guy, the rest of the field seem to diversed in what they say, they need to focus and reduce there points and become more emotion provoking when they say them.
We are in the age where the most successful politicians are more like Justin hammer or Tony stark from iron man, unfortunately.
Bernie because he is well known, did well in the 2016 primaries and his "we need a political revolution, where the top 1% don't have more more then the bottom 99%" is thought provoking and the way bernie delivers it makes it stick, he has Somwhat of an entertaining factor in a political freedom fighter kinda way for the low + middle class.
Biden was VP to Obama, so ppl know him and his "unions" and talk of how a job is more then just a paycheck is rather inspiring, he also repeats this a lot.
So to me sanders is the revolution guy and biden is the union + jobs guy, the rest of the field seem to diversed in what they say, they need to focus and reduce there points and become more emotion provoking when they say them.
We are in the age where the most successful politicians are more like Justin hammer or Tony stark from iron man, unfortunately.
I only bring it up as it's the only way Sanders (or Warren or Biden) would ever become her VP.
I'm with you on this. I think Beto will deliver her Texas in the presidential election if so, as well.
Important context is that they had her 8 points higher than the next pollster prior to this and that Warren's position stayed steady.
