I still dont understand why, people are entertaining hypothetical and attack me and others about a potential Biden vote
nearly an year before the general election. Come back to us when if he wins the primary, don't start arguments about something I feel strongly won't happen.
In Iowa, Biden confronts a growing threat: Pete Buttigieg
According to the
New York Times/Siena College poll that placed Biden in fourth place in Iowa, the former vice president was showing little appeal among younger voters — only
2 percent of those
under 45 years old said they planned to caucus for him.
In the last month alone, Buttigieg has doubled his staff presence while opening 20 offices across Iowa.
"I cannot overstate how many Buttigieg ads I see," said Sinovic, pointing to data showing Buttigieg's national digital spending numbers surpassing Biden almost five-to-one. "It's just a massive outspending right now."
Now imagine Biden comes
4th in Iowa,
3rd in New Hampshire and
doesn't win in Nevada.. he is done.
He won't be able to say he is the electable one and that's the thing that's been propping him to first place all these months. Just look at the polling in the early primary/caucus states and keep in mind
Iowa & Nevada are all about enthusiasm, ground game, volunteers since they are both
caucus states. Labor support is especially key for Nevada and helped Clinton get a close win in 2016 for example. Notice how Biden has only lead 1/6 polls in NH or Iowa, look at his average across these two states falling, Nevada we dont have much data - since the last polls were in September but even there his support is soft.
Iowa
NY Times/Siena: Warren(22), Sanders(19), Buttigieg(18), Biden(17)
Iowa State University: Warren(28), Buttigieg(20), Sanders(18), Biden(12)
USA Today/Suffolk: Biden(18), Warren(17), Buttigieg(13), Sanders(9)
New Hampshire:
CNN/UNH: Sanders(21), Warren(18), Biden(15), Buttigieg(10)
Boston Herald/FPU: Warren(25), Biden(24), Sanders(22), Buttigieg(9)
CBS News/YouGov: Warren(32), Biden(24), Sanders(17), Buttigieg(7)
Nevada(last poll from September):
CNN: Biden(22), Sanders(22), Warren(18), Harris(5)
USA Today/Suffolk: Biden(23), Warren(19), Sanders(14), Harris(4)
CBS News/YouGov: Sanders(29), Biden(27), Warren(18), Harris(6)
It's too early to be telling everyone to fall in line with Biden, who will be footnote in this primary