Are ‘prices’ ever coming down again?

[FliX]

Over the last couple weeks I've been getting some quotes for various things around the house like a new HVAC system. And prices are just whack.
the contractors all tell me that normally they would have year on year increases of maybe 6% but just in H1 they have seen increases of over 20%.
just yesterday I got an email about a quote I received only Thursday basically saying better agree now, as we are increasing prices by 15% across the board next week.
And all this if they can even get the parts and components that they need. Everything is backordered. OEMs and suppliers cannot even hazard a guess as to when things will be available…
Shits wild.
And let's be real. Even if commodity prices normalise again and parts become widely available, does anyone actually expect end consumer prices to come down again? Someone will surely pocket the pretty difference…

 

[Sandfox]

I doubt it. Companies will continue to charge higher prices because they can and people will pay it.

 

[mpak]

Have the prices ever come down? Usually people just become comfortable with more expensive stuff.

It usually becomes cheaper if there are some tech advances.

 

[Megabreath]

Hopefully everyone goes back to work and demand for housing and improvements goes down

 

[Contraband]

Have the prices ever come down? Usually people just become comfortable with more expensive stuff.

It usually becomes cheaper if there are some tech advances.

Click to shrink...

Badabing Badaboom.

 

[Couleurs]

No. We saw this back when gas prices were over $3-4 for the first time. Every company raised prices blaming gas, but no one dropped prices when gas went back down under $1-2. Once a company and its investors get used to that extra money, that's just how it is from now on.

 

[FTF]

I sure freakin hope so.

 

[Bane]

Fuck no. One of the biggest board game companies just announced a price increase on a lot of their games due to the current supply and shipping costs and there' no way that shit is coming down when it's all sorted out.

The gas example given above is the one I use when talking about this as well.

 

[random88]

Nope.

 

[alr1ght]

You best get on investing your money, since it's losing a ton of buying power just sitting in your bank account now.

 

[Joco]

Probably not.

Although what I'm really afraid of is if the housing market doesn't come back down and the time to buy is actually now.

 

[lunarworks]

It's a general rule that if prices go up, they're not coming down.

 

[bawjaws]

You best get on investing your money, since it's losing a ton of buying power just sitting in your bank account now.

Click to shrink...

And if you don't have enough money going spare to invest...?

I can't see prices coming back down to pre-pandemic levels any time soon. If people are still buying goods at the higher prices (and for a lot of stuff people simply won't have any other choice) then companies will keep charging those higher prices.

 

[BlinkBlank]

Transitory means that prices will level out after an increase, not that they will come back down in any meaningful way in the next months or year.

 

[Dice]

A recession might a little but that comes with another can of worms. But as others have said, probably not especially.

 

[shintoki]

Will they come down, sure.

Are they coming back down to former levels, no.

 

[skeezx]

my company is putting a 5-15% increase on all commodities. i can't imagine a scenario where we go "alright boys, time to crank it down a notch" because it's not like people will quit buying shit

 

[Crispy75]

Worldwide logistics are completely boned by covid and the Ever Given. Loads of ships are in the wrong place. Loads of ships stuck in/outside ports with covid crews or a lack of crew. The cost of sending a single container to Europe from China is 4--5x what it was. Anything that depends on the global supply chain (ie. almost everything involving physical goods) is going to feel the impact.

 

[Annubis]

Who's buying all these 3500$ video cards?

 

[RailWays]

Never ever, and the best part is these fuckers will still trot onto tv to tell us that we shouldn't be raising wages to match.

 

[jroc74]

Nope.

Only thing that happened is it got accelerated recently due to Covid.

I have seen prices go up for everything over the years. It is what it is.

 

[Deleted member 2802]

I've noticed a trend where stores have events with "throwback" pricing.

 

[hyouko]

Have the prices ever come down? Usually people just become comfortable with more expensive stuff.

It usually becomes cheaper if there are some tech advances.

Click to shrink...

Strictly speaking, yes, once - but as you say, it was due to tech advances. The price of the storage medium for games changed from expensive cartridges to cheap optical media. You had games like Yoshi's Island ($70) and Chrono Trigger ($80) that were much more expensive than modern games, particularly factoring in inflation.

You see an echo of that today in the "Switch Tax" for physical Switch games, but I think the cart cost these days is a smaller chunk of the bill than it was except for very large carts (32GB+). For games that squeeze into ~8GB I've read the cost is roughly similar to a PS4 Blu-Ray game disc release.

Edit: realizing this isn't on the gaming side! General principle applies, though. Over the years while things have trended up in the US, there are a few categories that have blown up disproportionately, notably healthcare and education. I could see a price correction there eventually.

 

[thewienke]

No one really knows until the supply chain gets sorted out. In theory there will be a lot of profit taking before competition actually gets back into full swing. Plus a lot of the higher prices like in automotive manufacturing are a result of producing fewer cars than ever but still trying to make a certain amount of revenue.

I think what we'll find is that about 10-20% of the well off population showed that they have different price tolerances than everyone else for the limited amount of supply. Once supply increases and poorer buyers get to jump in again then that ideal price point will shift down since there's a massively underserved market right now. Manufacturers are basically feeling what it's like to produce luxury brands without being a luxury brand. That can't survive indefinitely.

Ultimately prices should only increase relative to the actual amount of wage gains people are making right now. But there are a billion variables so it's hard to say one way or another.

We're probably in for a rough landing once the cheap money stops.

 

[Culex]

It'll be like the housing market- prices will never go down but will instead plateau .

The prices you see for good and services now are what they are. You think business owners will actually lower prices once their costs are down?

Capitalism 101

Its almost like unintentional collusion. Who will blink first to lower their price? NO ONE!

 

[Ether_Snake]

Economic crash likely coming over the next year. Then back to intervention.

 

[aznpxdd]

It now costs 20k+ USD to bring a container into US from Asia currently, which is about 6-7x compared to a year or two before. And even with that insane prices there are currently 40+ ships lined up at Long Beach/LA port trying to get in. Things won't get better any time soon.

 

[Burli]

Probably not and meanwhile my salary will continue to stagnate.

 

[mpak]

Strictly speaking, yes, once - but as you say, it was due to tech advances. The price of the storage medium for games changed from expensive cartridges to cheap optical media. You had games like Yoshi's Island ($70) and Chrono Trigger ($80) that were much more expensive than modern games, particularly factoring in inflation.

Click to shrink...

Also I think computers became cheaper at one point too. But again due to tech advances.

 

[Acidote]

Do they ever?

 

[entremet]

Do they ever?

Click to shrink...

Yes. Happened last time we had a inflation crisis.

Supply chains are complex things.

 

[bionic77]

Some things will and some will not.

Where I live no one is going to work for minimum wage again and it has resulted in a huge wage increase at the lower end. I don't see that changing and it will result in increased prices for some things.

A lot of consumables are not labor intensive though and their prices might return to normal at some point.

I don't think you can give a simple yes or no to this answer beyond inflation is definitely coming. But how much is tough to say.

 

[Dis]

For basic things every American uses often? Probably not. You may get cheaper brands of stuff at a better price than bigger brands but it probably won't be as low as if was before the price increases. For stuff that's not needed as much and can be done without maybe. It depends on if the consumers of those things keep paying the inflated prices.

 

[HStallion]

Prices will continue to go up until the machines take over.

 

[ngower]

Home prices, probably not for a little while but I think the market will correct itself. Inflation is normal, every market's median home value increasing by 30% year over year is not.

I think consumer goods will as production increases.

Services...dear god I hope so.

 

[Musubi]

Fuck no. If you get your customer base used to paying a price you aren't going to suddenly drop that price even if you have the latitude to do so.

 

[Brinbe]

lmfao. of course not. welcome to the dystopia

 

[Cubaneyes]

in my 37 years of life every time the prices went up, they never went back down.....this is where you get the "back in my day" nostalgia lol

 

[Chasex]

Probably not.

Although what I'm really afraid of is if the housing market doesn't come back down and the time to buy is actually now.

Click to shrink...

This was my conundrum 6 months ago and I'm glad I bought a house. With inflation out of control and the stock market having become a casino, I'm happy to have a physical asset I can see and use. One which the rate is locked and can't rise with inflation. The payment seems kinda high now but probably won't in 5 years, much less 10. And no matter what happens to the economy I have land and a house at the end of the day.

Its telling that in these uncertain times the banks and hedge funds are buying up whole neighborhoods. After the moratoriums end and foreclosure hit they will scoop up these too. Then they will just control the supply to keep costs high.

Short term maybe the prices level out and bid wars become less common. If the fed raises interest rates we might see some decrease but then your monthly payment is still the same, so what does it matter. Mid to long term the entire housing economy structure is set up to increase prices.

 

[jey_16]

edit….wrong thread!

 

[Hero_of_the_Day]

Haven't lumber prices already dropped back a bit?

I think things will drop, but never go all the way back to where they were before.

 

[Dekuman]

No for a number of reasons
1. Decoupling with China and rejigging of supply chains will mean increased cost though I've noticed they are relocating to cheaper countries (Cambodia, Vietnam etc)
2. Service workers not wanting to be treated like shit for subsistance wages means better pay for these workers but that will get passed on
3. Supply chain disruptions (see point 1) will limit supply, which means sellers won't have an incentive to lower prices as much and manufacturers would face higher costs as well therefore giving less of a margin to sellers
4. The increase in money supply from massive government intervention in economies has decreased the cost of money. More money chasing after the same amount of goods = inflation.

 

[Deleted member 70788]

Probably not.

Although what I'm really afraid of is if the housing market doesn't come back down and the time to buy is actually now.

Click to shrink...

Your fears are likely true.

 

[Deleted member 46493]

As someone from a developing country, it is interesting to see it happening here real-time. Well, at least one aspect of it — the working and lower classes just being shut out of purchasing anything nice while there's a seemingly endless amount of upper middle class+ people that can afford stuff.

 

[gozu]

No. We saw this back when gas prices were over $3-4 for the first time. Every company raised prices blaming gas, but no one dropped prices when gas went back down under $1-2. Once a company and its investors get used to that extra money, that's just how it is from now on.

Click to shrink...

What? prices were up to $4 and then went down to $2. (Thanks Obama!)

not saying your thesis is wrong. Just saying you picked the wrong example.

 

[Netherscourge]

Over the last couple weeks I've been getting some quotes for various things around the house like a new HVAC system. And prices are just whack.
the contractors all tell me that normally they would have year on year increases of maybe 6% but just in H1 they have seen increases of over 20%.
just yesterday I got an email about a quote I received only Thursday basically saying better agree now, as we are increasing prices by 15% across the board next week.
And all this if they can even get the parts and components that they need. Everything is backordered. OEMs and suppliers cannot even hazard a guess as to when things will be available…
Shits wild.
And let's be real. Even if commodity prices normalise again and parts become widely available, does anyone actually expect end consumer prices to come down again? Someone will surely pocket the pretty difference…

Click to shrink...

I need new central air system, but after the quotes I got, I decided a couple $200 window AC units would suffice. They're a lot lighter and easier to install these days.

I'll check back in the spring when companies have more parts in stock and it's still early enough not to get caught in heatwaves.

Late summer and fall are the worst times to get most jobs done in general.

 

[bremon]

Prices on some things aren't sustainable, and will come down. Prices on many other things won't come back down. Life keeps getting more expensive.

And if you don't have enough money going spare to invest...?

I can't see prices coming back down to pre-pandemic levels any time soon. If people are still buying goods at the higher prices (and for a lot of stuff people simply won't have any other choice) then companies will keep charging those higher prices.

Click to shrink...

People who don't have enough extra money to invest are the many people losing the game called capitalism.

 

[Septy]

I don't think rent is coming down again. Rent for a two bedroom at my old apartment complex went from $1800 to $2700 in a year. At my brothers complex a 1 bedroom went from $800 to $1600. This isn't sustainable. I don't know how people are doing it

 

[ngower]

I don't think rent is coming down again. Rent for a two bedroom at my old apartment complex went from $1800 to $2700 in a year. At my brothers complex a 1 bedroom went from $800 to $1600. This isn't sustainable. I don't know how people are doing it

Click to shrink...

It will when no one pay that.

I used to work for a property management company and we'd charge as high as we could so long as people paid for it. Once apartments sat, the price'd go down. I think in the couple of years I was there rent went up about 40%, but it's largely stayed around the same rate for a year now.

 

[Red Comet]

Nope. The price of printing money is higher prices for everything else. It is a good thing if you invest in deflationary assets though…