Analyst: Nintendo Switch Will Sell 25 Million Units This Year; PS5 Due Out In Late 2019

[Deleted member 46720]

Switch sales I think are a bit of ambitious estimate. I'm getting on board in December so I add one to the tally - but Nintendo is a niche system and doesn't cater to the wider market.

Most of its titles exist elsewhere or are devout Nintendo properties.

It won't breach 20m by year end.

PS5 in 2019 I feel is a no brainer. It isn't so much as cannablising the PS4, as it is riding the wave of the PS4.

Obsolence is part of business - and you need to cater for the die hards that jump on day one. Jonny come latelys will still buy the PS4 - the market has plenty that don't need the new gizmo and will actively become more interested in an older model as it comes with it price deductions.

 

[FTF]

Me: PS5 = 2020

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Yup, this. I'd bet it'll be Fall 2020, not Fall 2019.

 

[Krypt]

this is going so wrong.

 

[Deleted member 249]

Nintendo is a niche system and doesn't cater to the wider market.

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Say what now?

 

[Deleted member 35598]

^ This, just the opposite.

Nintendo itself has estimated 20 million units for this FY in the current annual report. Sooo ...

I think with TLoU Part II and Death Stranding as cross-gen games, Sony would do very well. In addition, the Pro would be a real mid-gen update, as predicted by Sony. And Microsoft desperately wants this power advantage.

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They don't need the power advantage to win. This ios going to be the first gen in a long time where the most powerful system wins ( and we still don't know how many units the Switch will sell when it's all set and done... ). The PS2 and the Wii were the least powerful systems of their gen ( not counting the Dreamcast here ) and they won decisively. So Microsoft won't win because they have a more powerful system.

As for the Switch, I believe Nintendo has been conservative with their prediction. The DS did 30 million in its best year. The Wii did 26 million. So 25 million is perfectly possible for the Switch with the combine storm of Smash/Pokemon and price cut ( inevitable ).

 

[DGS]

They don't need the power advantage to win. This ios going to be the first gen in a long time where the most powerful system wins ( and we still don't know how many units the Switch will sell when it's all set and done... ). The PS2 and the Wii were the least powerful systems of their gen ( not counting the Dreamcast here ) and they won decisively. So Microsoft won't win because they have a more powerful system.

As for the Switch, I believe Nintendo has been conservative with their prediction. The DS did 30 million in its best year. The Wii did 26 million. So 25 million is perfectly possible for the Switch with the combine storm of Smash/Pokemon and price cut ( inevitable ).

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They don't need the power advantage, but they want it! They made that clear with the X.

And how is Nintendo supposed to sell more units than they can deliver? The quantities are long since reserved/ordered for the holiday season!

 

[z0m3le]

They don't need the power advantage to win. This ios going to be the first gen in a long time where the most powerful system wins ( and we still don't know how many units the Switch will sell when it's all set and done... ). The PS2 and the Wii were the least powerful systems of their gen ( not counting the Dreamcast here ) and they won decisively. So Microsoft won't win because they have a more powerful system.

As for the Switch, I believe Nintendo has been conservative with their prediction. The DS did 30 million in its best year. The Wii did 26 million. So 25 million is perfectly possible for the Switch with the combine storm of Smash/Pokemon and price cut ( inevitable ).

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I think we will be waiting for a revision to hit 25M+ but this year should be 19M-22M without one. I think they could cheat just a bit and launch the revision in March. A Switch Mini at $199 in March could do well... but I really think the kid friendly price would be better received alongside Pokemon 2019, that would definitely have people out there buying Switch systems for their kids and Pokemon die hards, buying second systems for trading.

 

[Skittzo]

They don't need the power advantage, but they want it! They made that clear with the X.

And how is Nintendo supposed to sell more units than they can deliver? The quantities are long since reserved/ordered for the holiday season!

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There were reports that they planned to manufacture 25-30M for this FY. They always prepare more units than they forecast, last year their initial forecast was 10M and they managed to sell 15M.

 

[z0m3le]

There were reports that they planned to manufacture 25-30M for this FY. They always prepare more units than they forecast, last year their initial forecast was 10M and they managed to sell 15M.

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That was why I figured if they hit goal, they would beat it out by a bit, thus 22M. Mostly for the 40M by end of March number.

 

[Deleted member 5764]

Interesting! I've been beating the drum for a late 2019 release of PS5 for quite some time now. It just feels like the right timing to keep the ball rolling. PS3 and 360 waiting until the consoles were past the point of diminished returns and developers absolutely hated it.

As for Switch, I always felt that the 20 million estimate was Nintendo setting the bar low. I can certainly see them exceeding that goal by some margin.

 

[Skittzo]

That was why I figured if they hit goal, they would beat it out by a bit, thus 22M. Mostly for the 40M by end of March number.

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I don't think they care particularly about hitting a milestone like 40M, but last FY they apparently channel stuffed a bit to reach 15M*, so it's clear they do want to exceed their forecasts, yeah.

*We know this because sell through in the US and Japan was higher in Q1 of this FY than reported shipments were.

 

[z0m3le]

I don't think they care particularly about hitting a milestone like 40M, but last FY they apparently channel stuffed a bit to reach 15M*, so it's clear they do want to exceed their forecasts, yeah.

*We know this because sell through in the US and Japan was higher in Q1 of this FY than reported shipments were.

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Interesting. Yeah the desire for 40M is mine alone. I just like big milestones. I also want it to exceed XB1's LTD early into next year and 40M by the end of March would certainly have it very close to XB1's lifetime sales.

 

[Empyrean Cocytus]

And so now we have the reverse Pachter.

20 million as estimated is possible but unlikely. 25 would be a miracle. Maybe if they get the NSMBU port to go with Smash and Pokemon, having a Mario game this year (even as a Wii U port) would be a big pickup. If I had to guess, I'm going to say it'll be more likely around the 15-16 million mark, still more than enough to be successful.

PS5 in 2019 is laughable. If anything we might get an upgraded PS4 that will have full 4k compatibility to directly compete with the XB1X, but the next console probably wouldn't be until 2020-21 at the earliest.

 

[Master Chuuster]

No way PS5 launches in 2019.

Switch might hit 20 mil, but 25 is ridiculous. That amounts to over 42 million LTD in just two years, that's crazy.

Also he expects 140 million software sales for the current FY... yeah, also a bit much. That's, what, more than double the figures in FY 2018?

 

[CarthOhNoes]

25 million Switches would see them at around 42 million sold in a little over 2 years on the market. That would be INSANE. PS4 only sold around 36 million in its first two years so this would put NS well above PS4 in terms of sales pace. Would be exceedingly impressive if true but I'm not convinced. I think 18-20 million is a good bet though.

 

[Binabik15]

I'm so out of the loop with gaming right now.

A PS5 im 2019 soounds okay if the jump is big, but a 2020 PS5 with hopefully a looot more power would be great as well.

 

[Starfire22]

I still think PS5 will release in 2020.

 

[DGS]

There were reports that they planned to manufacture 25-30M for this FY. They always prepare more units than they forecast, last year their initial forecast was 10M and they managed to sell 15M.

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For real? Companies produce up to twice as much as estimated, and in the meantime, store these units somewhere if needed? Okay... . Nevertheless, I rather expect the estimated 20 million. Sounds more plausible.

 

[Alastor3]

I'd welcome a PS5 in 2019, as long as it plays PS4 titles it will allow me to completely skip PS4.

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you could skip ps5 and wait for ps6

 

[Deleted member 35598]

I think we will be waiting for a revision to hit 25M+ but this year should be 19M-22M without one. I think they could cheat just a bit and launch the revision in March. A Switch Mini at $199 in March could do well... but I really think the kid friendly price would be better received alongside Pokemon 2019, that would definitely have people out there buying Switch systems for their kids and Pokemon die hards, buying second systems for trading.

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I agree, the revision will probably come in March or later. But the problem is Nintendo has a very ambitious target for this fiscal year. So they need a competitive Switch price, not just games, to reach it. I expect a 250$ price at some point in late 2018. And a revision mid-2019.

 

[VX1]

It boggles my mind when some people say late 2019 PS5 launch would be "rushed", "too early" etc. I mean,really?!? Late 2019 PS4 will be 6 years old! PS4 tech,Jaguar cpus and 7850 amd gpu,would be considered ancient by then.

Besides,you want to strike while the iron is hot,you want new PS5 to ride on the huge success of PS4,not to wait 1-2 year longer to launch successor when the PS4 sales are in significant decline.

If 7nm tech is ready for mass production,end of 2019 would be great time for PS5 launch.
2013 PS4
2016 PS4 Pro
2019 PS5

 

[show me your skeleton]

announce and release the ps5 in the same year? seems too quick to me but heck, i know nothing.

 

[MrKlaw]

They don't need the power advantage, but they want it! They made that clear with the X.

And how is Nintendo supposed to sell more units than they can deliver? The quantities are long since reserved/ordered for the holiday season!

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Companies say what is necessary to sell what they have. MS didn't make a noise about power when they were underpowered compared to PS4. They made a lot of noise about power when X1X was more powerful than ps pro. Same will happen next gen. Doesn't mean they are fixed in any particular strategy

 

[MrKlaw]

Dp

 

[Skittzo]

For real? Companies produce up to twice as much as estimated, and in the meantime, store these units somewhere if needed? Okay... . Nevertheless, I rather expect the estimated 20 million. Sounds more plausible.

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25-30M is 25-50% more than estimated, not twice as much.

Here's a source by the way: http://www.ign.com/articles/2017/11...tch-production-to-25-30-million-units-in-2018

 

[daveo42]

A complete lack of even mere rumblings about PS5 dev kits makes it seem like we are still well over a year out from a PS5 launch. I'm still banking on a 2020 launch for both a new Xbox and PS5.

 

[K Samedi]

I think we will be waiting for a revision to hit 25M+ but this year should be 19M-22M without one. I think they could cheat just a bit and launch the revision in March. A Switch Mini at $199 in March could do well... but I really think the kid friendly price would be better received alongside Pokemon 2019, that would definitely have people out there buying Switch systems for their kids and Pokemon die hards, buying second systems for trading.

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I think it makes sense for them to prepare for a big hardware launch in march and exceed the 20 million figure by a wide margin. The new hardware will probably ship 3 million for launch month alone. The timing makes sense too because they usually have revisions every 2 years or so.

 

[z0m3le]

I think it makes sense for them to prepare for a big hardware launch in march and exceed the 20 million figure by a wide margin. The new hardware will probably ship 3 million for launch month alone. The timing makes sense too because they usually have revisions every 2 years or so.

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Yeah dslite and 3dsxl was about 18 months after launch, gba sp was 2 years after launch, so it's seemingly a lock for spring, especially with that custom Tegra chip hiding in 5.0 firmware from March (mariko/t214)

 

[DGS]

25-30M is 25-50% more than estimated, not twice as much.

Here's a source by the way: http://www.ign.com/articles/2017/11...tch-production-to-25-30-million-units-in-2018

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Whoops, my mistake. Sorry. Still a lot.. 50% more. But, they know what they are doing, I guess.

 

[Deleted member 17207]

If Nintendo has a fucking banger of a Direct in September that announces a few more surprises in time for Christmas, I could see it.

As it is now? No way. Not even with Smash and Pokemon. They'll do more than fine, but they won't hit 25.

 

[ShadowFox08]

20 million is doable with ultimate, Pokemon, and possibly without the rumored new super Mario Bros u port. 25 million is ambitious and not likely..


Yeah 2019 is too early for PS4. They are better off waiting an extra year to squeeze out more affordable prices anyway. Totally fine for this gen(xbone/PS4) to last 7 years like last year with PS3.

 

[BitsandBytes]

I'm not ignoring it. I think those leaks were planted by Microsoft to fool the competition they're gearing out for 2020 next gen start. It's bogus imo. I'm telling you right now, it will be 2019. Don't be surprise to see rumors and leaks among those lines in the coming weeks and months.

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I'm genuinely not sure if you are serious but if you are then I don't know how to respond. Let's agree to disagree and see how it pans out.

 

[DGS]

So... no PS5 in late 2019?

I hope it's one out of two.

 

[Dant21]

announce and release the ps5 in the same year? seems too quick to me but heck, i know nothing.

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Didn't they do that with the PS4? and the Xbox One? Technically the Switch too, if you don't count Iwata saying that there was a next-gen console being worked on back in 2015 and only take the official reveal trailer in October 2016 as the "announcement".

 

[Herb Alpert]

So... no PS5 in late 2019?

I hope it's one out of two.

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Are you Seriously expecting ps5 this year

 

[Braaier]

20m probably. 25m is a stretch.

PS5 is coming in the first half of 2020. Not 2019.

 

[Quintus]

Atleast I know which analyst predictions I should be wary of in the future - probably both of the predictions will be wrong.

 

[G_O]

..

 

[Deleted member 28386]

I'd welcome a PS5 in 2019, as long as it plays PS4 titles it will allow me to completely skip PS4.

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Me too, pal. Exactly why I skipped buying a PS4 for KH3 and just borrowed my friend's console instead. Too close to a PS5 to warrant buying a 4.

 

[GazRB]

I'm still chilling with my PS4. Unlike last gen I don't feel like we've maxed out the technology available now.

 

[King_Moc]

25m? Does he foresee a $150 price cut or something?

Edit: oh, this thread is ancient.

 

[Fredrik]

PS5 in 2019 makes perfect sense, no E3 planned for Sony this year, TLOU2 and Ghost as launch titles, and a 3-year gap between the consoles PS4-3years-PS4Pro-3years-PS5-3years-PS5Pro. Perfect.

 

[Ausroachman]

Would love ps5 this year but doubt it will come . Ready to upgrade now but getting a pro this late in the gen feels like a waste .

 

[F34R]

PS5 won't be until fall of 2020 at the earliest.

 

[mario_O]

No & No.

The Switch lack of software and high price will start slowing sales, unless they release a new cheaper version this year.

PS5 soonest is next year, no way it's coming this year.

 

[amc]

Why would Sony release a new machine whilst its current one is doing gangbusters. I can see PS4 slowing this xmas holiday period thus PS5 in 2020/21. No way in 2019. Sony aren't stupid.

 

[Taffy Lewis]

20m probably. 25m is a stretch.

PS5 is coming in the first half of 2020. Not 2019.

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Nintendo just lowered their guidance significantly, they're not hitting 20 million.

 

[Yasuke]

Not a chance in hell PS5 is coming this year.

 

[Datajoy]

Are people just bumping every thread that has anything to do with Switch 20 mil forecast?

 

[DontHateTheBacon]

I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again...

...but I just can't see either of these things happening.