But Jesus Christ people, stop using yard signs, rally crowd sizes, and fucking boat parades as your evidence that Trump's got this in the bag. If you're a Trumpist in 2020, you aren't silent. You're loud as hell, but that doesn't mean you're part of the majority.
I've lived here all my life. I know the people around me. I know how my area voted in the past. A Republican hasn't won my county since 1984, and that includes Trump. But it was fucking close, something like a 15 point R swing, and he did win my town which, again, hadn't happened in decades. His supporters here ARE enthusiastic, yes, but there's also a lot more of them then any other R candidate has had in my lifetime. The proof was obvious on election day in 2016; I went into my usual polling place early in the morning before work, and the line was out the door, which was insane. I'm talking 5x the normal turnout at that time. Given everything the GOP had done to assassinate Hillary's character, I knew that it wasn't for her, and the results reflected that; somehow, in this extremely blue collar coal mining town that isn't more then 10 minutes from Scranton where she had so many ties (hell, one of my aunts took care of her parents grave for years), Trump won.
Now, I'm not saying that any of the physical evidence shows an uptick in Trump support, and yes, I realized that the 2020 election landscape is very different from 2016, but at the very least, Trump has held onto the majority of people that he won over back then in my area. The difference, which I pointed out, is that I am seeing far more Biden signs then what Hillary had. People are much more enthused with Biden this time around; the same yards that were blank are now clearly displaying support. One way or the other, people are more into this race then any I've seen in the past.
I'm originally from NEPA and the area pretty much handed 2016 to Trump. It had the highest concentration of Obama > Trump voters in the entire country. I'm very concerned people are taking the fact that Biden was born there for granted, Hillary had tenuous ties to Scranton as well and it certainly didn't help her out. NEPA used to be a spot of blue in the red landscape between Philly and PGH but I think it's a lost cause this year and we need to rack up huge margins in the big cities to counteract it.
Lackawanna stayed blue but the margin shrunk tremendously, and Luzerne went red, so I can agree that it may have tipped the state over the edge. I'm more hopeful this time around, though, as there's a lot more Dem energy this time around. I don't feel like there's been an uptick in Trump supporters, just Trump support, if that makes any sense. The same voices are just louder; hell there's a Trump merch tent that just popped up next to my workplace. But the Blue support does feel greater, and speaking with people has me thinking there won't be any reluctance on Dem voters to stay silent this time.