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US PoliERA 2018 |OT11| The Hunt for Blue November
- Thread starter Midnight Jon
- Start date
- Status
Does anyone know what the Senate map looks like in 2020?
Does it favor us with tons of GOP up on the chopping block, or nah?
Does it favor us with tons of GOP up on the chopping block, or nah?
Many more opportunities, but depends on the environment.
We probably lose AL, but every other seat of ours is basically safe besides maybe NH.
CO starts as Lean D, I think. Gardner won by a razor's edge in 2014, and he probably won't be able to survive election-year turnout in a light-blue state.
IA could be competitive depending on the snapback this year.
NC, potentially.
GA, less potentially but within the realm.
And I want Sue to meet the same fate as her idol Moderate Chase Smith.
Oh, and the other AZ seat will be up and will be vacant.
I really, really hate that the TX-SEN race is basically a huge question mark.
Polls indicate that Cruz leads by a few points, but turnout in Democratic districts is so high that the poll demographics are definitely messed up.
We're venturing into the unknown, and that makes me uneasy.
Polls indicate that Cruz leads by a few points, but turnout in Democratic districts is so high that the poll demographics are definitely messed up.
We're venturing into the unknown, and that makes me uneasy.
If we get TX and not TN Rachel Bitecofer is going to be a very wealthy woman this time next year.
Might still be if Beto outperforms Bredseden period.
I think it's like 50/50, 2022 is the GOP nightmare map.
2020 Senate Map (colors represent party of the incumbent)
Minnesota is in gray because we don't know if Tina Smith has won yet (though she almost certainly will). Since she is taking over Al Fraken's seat/term she has to go up for election again in 2020.
Mississippi is gray since we still don't know who will win the run off this year but it will probably be Hyde-Smith. Since she is taking over Thad Cochran's seat/term she has to go up for election again in 2020.
Note, though there are a lot of GOP sears up, a lot of them are in deep red territory. But there should still be a lot of good Dem pick-up opportunities. Just less than this map might suggest at a first glance.
That will depend on what Kyl does later this year. Chances are IF McSally loses and Kyl retires this year Ducey will most certainly appoint McSally who will run for the seat as the incumbent
So if it's 50-50, can't the democrats just make a deal with whoever is most moderate/craven on the Republican side and get a better speaker than McConnell?
I honestly be mostly okay with no net losses in the senate and count even that as a small victory, given how favorable the map was supposed to be for the GOP.
50/50 with the governorship of Iowa in the back pocket in case Grassley dies or retires would be a good spot too, I think.
50/50 with the governorship of Iowa in the back pocket in case Grassley dies or retires would be a good spot too, I think.
Really I'm just praying Dems take the house. If they can't even manage that this country is fuuuuucked
2020 Senate Map (colors represent party of the incumbent)
Minnesota is in gray because we don't know if Tina Smith has won yet (though she almost certainly will). Since she is taking over Al Fraken's seat/term she has to go up for election again in 2020.
Mississippi is gray since we still don't know who will win the run off this year but it will probably be Hyde-Smith. Since she is taking over Thad Cochran's seat/term she has to go up for election again in 2020.
Note, though there are a lot of GOP sears up, a lot of them are in deep red territory. But there should still be a lot of good Dem pick-up opportunities. Just less than this map might suggest at a first glance.
AZ, CO, IA, ME, MT, NC, SC and TN could all be at least competitive I would think. Of ours we could lose AL obviously. If Beto wins maybe TX is a whole new paradigm too I dunno.
That would be a victory, as far as I'm concerned.
Always thought even that was a pipe dream.
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1057625166920990722
"Well over 200,000 people who have NEVER voted in any election before now have already cast a ballot in Texas. The state with the second highest number of first time voters, CA, has only 78,000. Keep that in mind as you assess the polls in Texas."
Eh, if we can't get TN this year, we won't get it in 2020.
MT if Bullock runs. Otherwise, probably not.
SC won't be there for a while.
Everything else, yes.
Sometimes I have a hard time determining if Ted Cruz is the politician I'd like to see lose the most. Obviously Trump is more consequential but....
Also, in case of a 50/50 Senate and a D house, I gotta imagine one of the moderate darlings might get spooked enough to caucus with the Democrats. Maybe a post election Mueller surprise or two would do it
I find it really bizarre McCaskill is even on a Fox News polls after she's been trending downward for a while. Because it sure doesn't feel like it. And 538 has her at a 59% chance of winning. What the heck.
Not that I'm complaining. Please be true.
Not that I'm complaining. Please be true.
My prediction a week ago splits the baby, and I stand by +35.
If Steve King and Cruz got shitcanned in the process, I might even be okay net losing a seat.
No idea how that we would lose a seat in the same election that gives us Beto, but whatevs.
No idea how that we would lose a seat in the same election that gives us Beto, but whatevs.
We won't have a snowballs hell of a chance in SC until the big cities in the state get a massive economic boom that attracts liberals/moderates.
Upstate SC is pretty much a nonstarter. Diet racism is extremely common here.
Shit bud, I'm still crossing my fingers that Janz somehow boots Nunes.
Keep that hopium alive.
If anybody would do it, it's Murkowski. She voted against Kavanaugh and the ACA repeal and she won as a write-in so she really doesn't need the GOP's help. She could just become an independent who caucuses with the Democrats a la Bernie. I wouldn't hold my breath on it, but at the very least, allowing zero room for Republican defectors on Senate votes would be a huge win.
Bullock might run into the same problem Bredesen is having and he also would be running against Daines the incumbent
I'm working on election night and if Beto wins I'm busting into the dining room singing "Put on a Happy Face" and just I'm just going to start pouring beers for everyone at the bar and idgaf how fired I'll be after that.
Murkowski is still very R despite sometimes waffling on some of these big votes. Democrats would have to offer her a lot in order to entice her to switch over. The question is what would they promise and whether that would be an anathema to the Democratic base.
I guess the issue is whether we would expect Democrats to regain the Senate majority in 2020. If yes, then she would probably lock in an important committee seat by switching over early. But then we'd have another Manchin-type to deal with.
I guess the issue is whether we would expect Democrats to regain the Senate majority in 2020. If yes, then she would probably lock in an important committee seat by switching over early. But then we'd have another Manchin-type to deal with.
I want Ted Cruz to lose just for that moment of Trump tweeting "Lyin Ted's a loser and we all knew it since his dad killed president Kennedy!"
Hey, appreciate it. Frustrating not having anything embed anymore.
What I meant by that was it was a case of gerrymandering actually backfiring - too many districts with slight R advantages that they got caught up in a D wave.
The polls that indicate Cruz ahead by a few points are borderline useless. They're basing that on people who have a long voting record or people who indicated they're absolutely certain to vote. The vote totals so far show, that if nothing else, their turnout models are way off. The Nates coming around to my way of thinking reinforces my opinion on this. I still maintain that Cruz will see turnout somewhere around 2014 levels, and Beto will see 2016 Hillary levels.
I don't buy that Republicans in this state are fired up to vote for Ted Cruz. The MAGA brigade? Sure. Your average housewife in Collin County? No.
Perfect.
What happens if someone does absentee ballot/votes by mail and while it's on its way, they go in person to vote?
Have you guys seen this? He makes a good case that Mueller may have subpoenaed Trump.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/31/has-robert-mueller-subpoenaed-trump-222060
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/31/has-robert-mueller-subpoenaed-trump-222060
Eastman in NE-2 down 7
Raybould in NE SEN down 15
Trump 52% fav 46% unfav
http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/Nebraska_STATEWIDE_Survey__2018_Rail.pdf
Sucks that Eastman won't be taking down Bacon.
Raybould in NE SEN down 15
Trump 52% fav 46% unfav
http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/Nebraska_STATEWIDE_Survey__2018_Rail.pdf
Sucks that Eastman won't be taking down Bacon.
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