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US PoliERA 2018 |OT10| McConnell is "mule piss"
- Thread starter Midnight Jon
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@USATODAY
A new survey found that just 35 percent of Americans ages 18-29 are "absolutely certain" they will vote in November.
A new survey found that just 35 percent of Americans ages 18-29 are "absolutely certain" they will vote in November.
Uh, yeah.
Considering that it was sub-20% in 2014.
That is a horribly misleading headline. The data is from that survey I mentioned yesterday. 35% youth turnout would be massive, swing a lot of races, and render a lot of LV models useless.
They predicted 40% youth turnout in 2016. It was close to that.
isn't it typically below 20 percent? this would be a huge boost tbh.
Ten percent above where it was a month ago and 23% above 2014
We need to go higher
I want 50%+
The Twitter bio says "non-partisan", but I think it's a teeny-weeny bit partisan to lull the Republicans into a false sense of security. :p
It makes sense that they'd try and control things a little more. They've seen Russia screw with US elections, assassinate people on UK soil (not just the attempt on Skripol, but Litvinenko, too), move into Ukraine, and proxy-war in Syria. All with very little push-back, as the US State Dept is a shell, Trump doesn't care, the UK is dealing with Brexit, and mainland Europe is having to face the rise of the Alt-Right/Neo-Nazis. Why wouldn't another country make similar moves to control the narrative at home, and abroad?
I remember people (generally speaking) being sick of the phrase "The US is the world's policeman", but this is what happens when the US abdicates its role entirely.
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Sounds good for the highest level of certainty. A lot of "very certain" and "mostly certain" will turn out too.
What's the value in fake polling like this? Is it simply to calm the nerves of Republican donors? It seems like it's counter-productive, since it'll just act as a motivating tool for Dems.
There's apparently an audio recording of the torture and murder.
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worse.
it's a fake poll a bunch of dudes on the uselectionatlas forums cooked up to try and troll people
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pompeos-six-hours-in-pyongyang-a-reporters-notebook/
Hope they checked the thumb drive for spyware...
This reality is definitely a simulation.
A WaPo journalist is kidnapped, tortured and dismembered in one of by the Saudi Prince responsible for buying millions of dollars of trashy Trump condos and singlehandedly making the Post Office Trump hotel profitable - and Trump is protecting him by pretending the prince is a job creator and lying about how much.
This one isn't going away anytime soon though.
WaPo won't let it.
A WaPo journalist is kidnapped, tortured and dismembered in one of by the Saudi Prince responsible for buying millions of dollars of trashy Trump condos and singlehandedly making the Post Office Trump hotel profitable - and Trump is protecting him by pretending the prince is a job creator and lying about how much.
This one isn't going away anytime soon though.
WaPo won't let it.
Even stories about presidents come and go, but this time the victim was a journalist living in the US. No way they are letting this go.
40% youth turnout in 2016? Who they heck did they vote for?
Probably the fact that it's just over a 1 page summery hosted on Scribd from a company nobody has ever heard of.
Right now the Upshot poll of MN-8 is showing Trump with a 64-32 approval rating. Their last poll of the district had him at 47-48.
I realize it's not finished but man they better figure some shit out.
I realize it's not finished but man they better figure some shit out.
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that and they've got an entire discord where they even talked about setting up a bunch of fake sites and shit
If they're doing 800 respondents, it's not even 25% finished. Relax. You can look on the map and see they've gotten comparatively few responses so far from the Duluth area and St. Louis County generally. You can also see their design effect is close to 1.4, when the poll goes into weighting limbo.
If the race really looked like that, we would've triaged it and the GOP would've reverse triaged.
In other words, wait for final results.
And no, I don't think Trump's approval would be that high even in the reddest MN district. Maybe in WV, but not MN.
It's not unheard of that they got a super GOP sample. Might have happened the other way in NJ03
Guys, just a head's up. If you post fake news you're going to get banned. If we think you did it deliberately to troll or some other reason, it's going to be a perm. So just check your sources, we all know what's real and what's not.
If I'm honest, I don't foresee this being an issue going forward, but I'd be remiss if I didn't give you all a head's up. People come in here and have an expectation that what they read is real and can be trusted. If I have to ban people to keep it that way, so be it.
If I'm honest, I don't foresee this being an issue going forward, but I'd be remiss if I didn't give you all a head's up. People come in here and have an expectation that what they read is real and can be trusted. If I have to ban people to keep it that way, so be it.
MacArthur released an internal today showing him leading by only 4... and only at 44% vote share.
That's dangerously similar to internals released by Coffman, Babs, and Yoder. And, uh...
He's not wrong!
These would probably not be dissected as heavily if they weren't doing them live and just released them when they're finished. But it's a neat experiment.
Well, so is attacking posters by name without replying to them, so.
No, dear, rude is going out of your way to attack someone without even being courageous enough to @ him.
If you'll notice, Kaitos and I have never really exchanged a harsh word, because he's not an asshole who types LIKE THIS and looks for an excuse to fight with everyone.
Nate seems really stuck up.
Maybe your experimental live polling method just isn't that awesome.
Maybe your experimental live polling method just isn't that awesome.
No, Nate's probably right. You shouldn't dismiss a poll unless it's just too wonky to be believed like Rassssss. I admit that I delve into the crosstabs a bit too much.
Of course, what Slatsunus said above wasn't really about the polls. But I really can't focus too much on learning proper polling analysis until I teach him to use the @.
Aw, I should have added an /S, wasnt being serious
My bad, I apologize sincerely
Well if that MN 08 poll remains anywhere near a Trump approval of 2 to 1 then something is extremely wrong with it.
I think he was pretty reasonable if you read the entire thread. Basically that he himself is not comfortable with saying how correct a poll is, and he has all the raw data, even though it is tempting.
If it's like that when the poll is finished, yes.
And I'll be skewered for pointing out that MN-08 is not the reddest district in MN (MN-06 and 07, by the by); that Trump's approval in the state couldn't be 38% if he had 60+% in two, never mind three, districts; and that the only place in the country that has shown that level of approval is West fucking Virginia.
But I don't think the final result will look like that, so I'll be okay.
Also, I wanted to respond to this:
Literally the only thing different about these polls is the live method of delivery. Otherwise, it's the same Siena College polling it always was - just one poll among several other quality pollsters. I do agree that the live results lead people to place too much emphasis on them, almost as though they were an election themselves, but they're really not special in any other way.
The problem is there are so few polls in some of these races that one cannot "throw it on the pile", and so one reverts to one's natural instinct to guess at how good a single poll is.
Also everyone is really amped up right now.
Coronado still sucks though.
Also everyone is really amped up right now.
Coronado still sucks though.
Excellent point. For instance, Siena has now polled MN-08 twice, but no other public pollster has touched it. In such instances, I look at the parties' actions, and neither has conceded defeat by triaging or declared victory by reverse triaging.
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