After that crazy qualifying session, Ferrari achieved the most they could expect on a track like the Hungaroring. Maybe even more, because I expected Vettel to arrive 3rd at best.
I was surprised to see Merc pitting BOT to cover RAI, but it was probably because tire degradation was a bit unpredictable here (kinda short life on Friday, longer on Sunday...). So they wanted to have more options. They probably didn't expect VET to be so quick (outside of traffic) on worn out Softs. Bottas was going to lose 2nd place and that would have been a very bad call for Mercedes, if only Ferrari didn't help them out with their poor execution.
Ferrari strategy was good... on paper. The execution was very sloppy though, from the pit crew to Vettel himself. It is true that they lost 2 seconds in the pit, but VET made a mistake while he was pushing and lost 1.2 seconds in a sector during one lap. VET's mistake came eariler, so it was not that bad, but it certainly did not help having more margin over BOT. I'm a bit conflicted over the strategy team not calling VET in while he was losing seconds in the traffic, but they probably didn't want to risk with the Ultras. Wrong call, it looks like, as I am not sure a couple more laps on the Ultras would have been a problem at the end of the race (especially if he didn't have to follow BOT for 20 laps), but it's easy to say from your couch.
I don't think Vettel would have passed Hamilton. Softs were pretty consistent and Bottas became vulnerable only after 50 laps or so. Hamilton had much fresher tires. Of course, a bit of pressure on him could have changed things slightly, but I don't see VET being able to find the opportunity for gaining the top spot; HAM makes very few mistakes (if any) when he's in the lead. He can get nervous when he's trying to catch up, but not when he's in clean air.
Speaking of HAM. He is indeed lucky (not counting FIA conspiracy, lol?), but you also need to be able to seize the opportunity. And at the moment he's the best at doing so. During the Alonso vs Vettel era, it was VET (see 2010 and 2012).
Of course it's something that makes the fan of the other team filled with rage, but sometimes this is the way it goes.
But now, even when you see HAM starting at the end of the grid, you think "well, he might win this race anyway". With Vettel you think "Well, a podium would be a great result!". Just a feeling, of course.
Anyway, not a negative result for Ferrari after the qualifying session. But the championship chances are slipping away from VET. Constructors' looks like it's gonna be more balanced.
