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Deleted member 9584

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,132
Game Pass is not sustainable, but a growth business.

You can't grow without spending money. Lots of money is going into Game Pass. If GP doesn't grow, you aren't making money.

GP is inherently unsustainable as Microsoft needs to pump more money into it so that it grows beyond what it's at now so that they can keep putting more money into it, cycling growth and money.

If Game Pass saw no growth, it'd get canned. But it is, so Microsoft will continue to invest.
I'm surprised the U.S. government even allows them to do it, you know with it being illegal and all.
 

RdN

Member
Oct 31, 2017
1,782
I'm surprised this is confusing in any way.

Indeed. Goes to show how poor people's interpretation skills usually are.

Anyways... Very impressive numbers by Microsoft. Of course, launching a new system will do that for you. But those Game Pass news are the highlight. Couple that with the rumor of 23MM users, and god damn...
 

mentok15

Member
Dec 20, 2017
7,442
Australia
There's still a huge difference between doing better than the Xbox One era (pretty much anyone will agree that the Series X/S will do better than the XB1) and doing as good as the Xbox 360/PS3 gen, which was effectively a tie when it comes to hardware sales.
Xbox could do as well as the 360 era (~85 million) while the PS5 sells around the PS4 numbers (~115 million).
 

mentok15

Member
Dec 20, 2017
7,442
Australia
If either one of those does that, it seems kind of hard to see the other reaching their numbers.
Oh it's very unlikely, just that it's theoretically possible. I think the One is around 55 million now, so for this to happen the console market would have to grow by 30 million. Or Nintendo really screws up the next Switch and the Series S eats some of its marketshare (least likely).

My predictions right now is Series between 60-70 million, PS5 100+.
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
55,740
User Warned: Platform Warring, Trolling
Don't you get it....... Every PS5 owner will be compelled to pick up a Series S as the low cost supplemental console.... Therefore whatever the PS5 sells the Series will sell equally as much and more so from the X..... It's too big to fail!

/s
 

Kittenz

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,165
Minneapolis
Oh it's very unlikely, just that it's theoretically possible. I think the One is around 55 million now, so for this to happen the console market would have to grow by 30 million. Or Nintendo really screws up the next Switch and the Series S eats some of its marketshare (least likely).

My predictions right now is Series between 60-70 million, PS5 100+.
Is that a 5 year gen? 7? 10? Too hard to predict, as we have no idea how long consoles will be viable. Unlike any other generation, with cloud and PC and 5G and VR and AR and.... there's just so many paths that we have zero idea what is coming 5 years down the road. If I'm choosing, I will take MS position in heading toward the platform-less or console-less generation.

It's easy to envision a future where gaming is largely PC and mobile platforms. Sony does not currently seem posed to make that shift, though rumor says they are working on a Game Pass answer. Nintendo could because Switch is already portable (though they need to invest on online in a hurry) and MS clearly is looking there.

So may variables - - unknown but foreseeable.
 

Ushay

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,379
Wow they are rocketing upwards, this is only going to get better with time.

Can't wait to see how things look once these exclusives begin to roll out. I'm guessing they are not done with purchases.
 

YaBish

Unshakable Resolve - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,346
Based on early results, I'm holding to my estimate from last August of Xbox console sales ending up around the same numbers (assuming the gen is a similar length).

Whether that ends up mattering to them in the long run is really up in the air.
 

TheGhost

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,137
Long Island
Based on early results, I'm holding to my estimate from last August of Xbox console sales ending up around the same numbers (assuming the gen is a similar length).

Whether that ends up mattering to them in the long run is really up in the air.
Don't see how that's possible when they will actually have monster games this generation. No one is under the illusion it will ever reach PlayStation levels but with the value of Gamepass and actual good IP? Easily surpassing it.
 

Parcas

Member
Dec 12, 2017
1,738
Game Pass is not sustainable, but a growth business.

You can't grow without spending money. Lots of money is going into Game Pass. If GP doesn't grow, you aren't making money.

GP is inherently unsustainable as Microsoft needs to pump more money into it so that it grows beyond what it's at now so that they can keep putting more money into it, cycling growth and money.

If Game Pass saw no growth, it'd get canned. But it is, so Microsoft will continue to invest.

Why do you make such claims with no proof on the money it generates?

Do you understand Gamepass is at its core a storefront for people to come and spend more money? All the games people get to play there still can offer many other ways of monetization and there is enough proof from developers talking about how it is a net positive for them to be there, the same goes for first party ones.

Do not understand how you can make claims like is not sustainable when it has been clearly backed by everyone that subscription models are extremely profitable.
 

Maple

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,797
Game Pass is not sustainable, but a growth business.

You can't grow without spending money. Lots of money is going into Game Pass. If GP doesn't grow, you aren't making money.

GP is inherently unsustainable as Microsoft needs to pump more money into it so that it grows beyond what it's at now so that they can keep putting more money into it, cycling growth and money.

If Game Pass saw no growth, it'd get canned. But it is, so Microsoft will continue to invest.

Isn't this the same for every single streaming service though? Disney+, Netflix, etc? The companies providing the service need to continually pump money into it to incentivize even more subscriptions and continued growth.
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - Youā€™re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,921
Why do you make such claims with no proof on the money it generates?

Do you understand Gamepass is at its core a storefront for people to come and spend more money? All the games people get to play there still can offer many other ways of monetization and there is enough proof from developers talking about how it is a net positive for them to be there, the same goes for first party ones.

Do not understand how you can make claims like is not sustainable when it has been clearly backed by everyone that subscription models are extremely profitable.
It reads like you think I'm being negative about Game Pass.

Subscription services like Game Pass need to be constantly growing otherwise it's failing.

Until Microsoft deem the service "good enough" and stops throwing near infinite money at it, the very nature of the "Game Pass model" is unsustainable.

Like, I'm subbed to GPU until 2022 and have been enjoying it for years. Not hating on it.
Isn't this the same for every single streaming service though? Disney+, Netflix, etc? The companies providing the service need to continually pump money into it to incentivize even more subscriptions and continued growth.
Yes.
 

Trup1aya

Literally a train safety expert
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,519
Isn't this the same for every single streaming service though? Disney+, Netflix, etc? The companies providing the service need to continually pump money into it to incentivize even more subscriptions and continued growth.

Gamepass is really unlike any other streaming service - because things are sold through Gamepass, DLC, MicroTransactions, and entire games.

Gamepass is more like Amazon Prime than Netflix. With Netflix, the subscription fee is the only source of revenue. With a Gamepass sub, you're getting a Netflix like library- but your also being incentivized to buy things at a discount, that you probably wouldn't have bought if you didn't have the sub.

last I heard, Gamepass subscribers spend 20% more on gaming that those w/o sub. So the opportunity to turn average gamers into gamers who spend more money is a growth opportunity in and of itself.

Subscriber growth will (obviously) greatly benefit Gamepass revenues, but the idea that MS will require infinite growth in order for Gamepass to be profitable is to ignore all of the accompanying revenue streams.
 
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Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,861
A lot to unpack in this post.

First of all, Netflix is very sustainable. They are still in their growth phase but soon they'll have so much content they won't need to be spending as much on new stuff. There will be more than any reasonable person can get through.

Second, he's not saying that Game Pass is just a place for MS to dump money into. He's saying it's not sustainable because that implies just maintaining a certain level, he's saying it's actually more than sustainable, it's actually a growth business.
Being sustainable = being profitable at current level without needing growth.
It's clearly not, not at 23million subscribers and with so many discounts to attract customers. But that's not what Gamepass is meant to be at the moment, as already discussed before.
The reason why MS is dumping all that money in Gamepass is to reach that point you are describing Netflix is just barely reaching (they did $500m profit on 6.6b revenue last quarter I checked), and to overtake/ kill the competition (I don't buy it is solely a move to grow the industry, though it may do that).
Netflix just now arrived to a point where they don't need to borrow anymore ($16billions in 10 years) but they also need retention, which will be a key factor all ngside offering more owned content than contracted, specially as competing services arrive.
And more growth still, even with north of 200million subscribers.

MS's asset here is that obviously they don't need to borrow the money to finance Gamepass.
 

Loxley

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,652
The big takeaway from all of this is this may be the first time in history 3 main platform providers all look to be doing very good. It is about time we had some strong competition all around.

It's especially noteworthy since all of the big three are taking visibly different approaches to tackling the swiftly-changing modern gaming landscape as we know it.

Sure there are still the obvious similarities between the new Xbox and PS consoles in terms of hardware and features, but in terms of software and ecosystems, MS and Sony are practically in different solar systems right now in terms of their approach. Sony is taking a more traditionalist console-focused apporach with the PS5, at least for now, and MS are trying all sorts of wacky shit just to get more people into the Xbox ecosystem. Hell soon you won't even need to own an actual Xbox or MS device period in order to play your Xbox library - which is bonkers.

And as always, for better or worse, Nintendo are doing their own thing and not letting the perpetual slap-fight between Xbox and Playstation deter them from being distinctly Nintendo (and thankfully both MS and Sony have long stopped attempting to copy Nintendo's latest gimmicks). Here's hoping their resounding success with the Switch will carry into their next console.

Honestly the current state of the video game industry is really fascinating to watch. With Nintendo, Sony, and MS all seemingly teed up to succeed, the next generation is going to be pretty damn exciting.
 

YaBish

Unshakable Resolve - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,346
Don't see how that's possible when they will actually have monster games this generation. No one is under the illusion it will ever reach PlayStation levels but with the value of Gamepass and actual good IP? Easily surpassing it.
Well considering this post upthread that has XS pegged at ~4.5-5 million sold through, and the news from April 2014 that they'd sold in 5 million X1 consoles... yeah, using the data we have right now I think that my prediction is doing alright.

To be clear I think they're heading towards lots of growth in software and subs, I just think the picture on the console side is murky right now.

Edit: the other factor is of course, production. If the chip shortage isn't mitigated in due course, that'll have ramifications for all the players.
 

Coop

Member
Jan 9, 2020
561
Well considering this post upthread that has XS pegged at ~4.5-5 million sold through, and the news from April 2014 that they'd sold in 5 million X1 consoles... yeah, using the data we have right now I think that my prediction is doing alright.

To be clear I think they're heading towards lots of growth in software and subs, I just think the picture on the console side is murky right now.

Edit: the other factor is of course, production. If the chip shortage isn't mitigated in due course, that'll have ramifications for all the players.
That's not a fair comparison, demand is much higher than production
 

nib95

Contains No Misinformation on Philly Cheesesteaks
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
18,498
Healthy results. All platform holders potentially feasting this gen.

Gaming 2021: $3.533B
Gaming 2020: $2.349B

Content and services grew $739M, or 34%

Hardware grew 232%

Software 2021: $2.896B
Software 2020: $2.157B

+$739M / +34.26%

Hardware 2021: $637M (Total Gaming - Software)
Hardware 2020: $192M

x 3.318

$637M

Series X: $500 * 1,000,000 = $500M
Series S: $137M / $300 = 457K

Series X:S = 69:31

Total Q1 2021 = ~1.45M
That puts Xbox x/s around 4.5-5 million ww ?

What date is this 4.5m-5m unit prediction up to?
 
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Bradbatross

Member
Mar 17, 2018
14,275
Don't see how that's possible when they will actually have monster games this generation. No one is under the illusion it will ever reach PlayStation levels but with the value of Gamepass and actual good IP? Easily surpassing it.
Yea, these kinds of predictions make no sense and completely go against the idea that games sell consoles. A constant flow of big exclusives, Game Pass, and the cheap and extremely small Series S make predictions that the Series X/S aren't going to be more successful than the Xbox One extremely silly.
 

arsene_P5

Prophet of Regret
Member
Apr 17, 2020
15,438
Honestly the current state of the video game industry is really fascinating to watch. With Nintendo, Sony, and MS all seemingly teed up to succeed, the next generation is going to be pretty damn exciting
Healthy results. All platform holders potentially feasting this gen
Nice to see Microsoft doing well, the industry needs fhem, 3 major players doing great numbers is amazing.
I absolutely agree with all of you. It's great to see all three companies doing great, while following somewhat different strategies. Bolds well for the future and I am excited about this generation. The only negative so far is the impact of covid on game development and production of these consoles :/
 

Firefly

Member
Jul 10, 2018
8,684

People after reading the first sentence of the tweet only..

QDQJLsL.gif
 

Lobster Roll

signature-less, now and foreverā„¢
Member
Sep 24, 2019
34,559
I saw the word sustainable dumped all over this thread and thought people were just being silly for a laugh. But holy shit people are being serious.
 

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,525
These are record results for Xbox iirc, so I'd say it's better than "solid". Especially when there was no huge first party release. Holiday will be huge, if we really get Halo Infinite, FH5 and Starfield.
Revenue just isn't a good metric to decide how well a business is doing. MS or better the Xbox side doesn't provide enough information to make the decision to call Performance amazing in my mind. A business can increase it's revenue by a lot and yet also be much less profitable or even operate at a loss.

Xbox has the benefit that they can off set and take these losses because the overall company is so successful.

So yes MS as a whole is doing amazing but Xbox isn't where they wanna be yet. They still early in their road.

Not even being a hater but Xbox as a business isn't really that transparent compared to other Plattform holders and they are in a unique position inside MS where the don't have to be. That's okay.
 

arsene_P5

Prophet of Regret
Member
Apr 17, 2020
15,438
Xbox has the benefit that they can off set and take these losses because the overall company is so successful.

So yes MS as a whole is doing amazing but Xbox isn't where they wanna be yet. They still early in their road.
I agree with you that nobody can just look at revenue to decide whether the business is performing great or not. However we can see growth in revenue and Xbox breaking their records in this particular metric. Obviously this alone doesn't mean Xbox is profitable. However we know from Spencer that Xbox is a growing and profitable business. So that's good to hear šŸ‘
 

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,525
I agree with you that nobody can just look at revenue to decide whether the business is performing great or not. However we can see growth in revenue and Xbox breaking their records in this particular metric. Obviously this alone doesn't mean Xbox is profitable. However we know from Spencer that Xbox is a growing and profitable business. So that's good to hear šŸ‘
I mean its not like i said that they are doing bad, they are obv. on the right path and in time will have a very profitable business i just dont think they are there yet - especially compared to the competition. Thats okay, because they are laying the ground for a lot of longterm benefits and profits down the line.

I know that people wanna cheer on every company that does well by its customers and MS/Phil deserves the benefit based on the last couple of years but just based on the numbers provided here from the Xbox group i cant be as euphoric yet, gonna keep that state for when they are really done with their transition and its obvious that its a very successful business. Revenue is great to measure the size of the market, not to evaluate how well the business is operating in general. 10 billion revenue for example is a great figure until you realize that you needed to spend 15 billion to reach that revenue...not saying thats the case with MS, but we dont have a clear picture yet and they only provide numbers that put them in the most positive light.

As said, thats something you can do when you are subsidiary of one of the most successful and rich companies in the world. Playstation or Nintendo as a business dont have this kind of luxury and probably would be eaten alive if shareholders didnt know how profitable their gaming business was.

Thats not the case with you but sadly on ERA whenever you dont immediately jump on the PR/Hype train you get called out as a hater. For example i posted my impressions and reasoning for my take on page 1...asked the user that responded to it, on his own take on the numbers and he/she never replied. Some people just wanna consume and hype up numbers on a very basic level and then get mad when someone adds abit more perspective or reasoning to it why its a bit difficult to evaluate...especially compared to other plattform holders.