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Will Last of Us part 2 have the biggest opening in playstation history in terms of sales?

  • Yes

    Votes: 846 66.6%
  • No Spidey will keep that record for now

    Votes: 356 28.0%
  • FF7 remake duh

    Votes: 68 5.4%

  • Total voters
    1,270

ShutterMunster

Art Manager
Verified
Oct 27, 2017
2,541
Considering the lack of multiplayer this time around, I don't see the game getting anything higher than a 90 on Metacritic. So when consumers see the muted response from the press, I think many of them will be dissuaded from buying the game due to the perceived lack of value, and that of course will hinder pre-orders and day one sales. So the short answer is: no, I don't see it beating Spider-Man.

giphy.gif

that's all I got.

I'm guessing 4-5 million in 3 days and 20-25 LTD. The LTD is entirely dependent on its reception.
 

Ravage

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
1,536
I feel the same way most do - TLOU2 will have no problems besting Spidey's opening, it's a massive IP at this point. LTD will be tricky to call...I'm still going with TLOU2 based on gut feel

AW13RPj.gif


vs

JexkbZC.gif

Who won? Who's next? YOU decide!

2020 is such a ridiculously good year :)))
 

btkadams

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,334
I think spiderman could have longer legs, but TLOU2 will have a bigger opening.

I'd be surprised if FF7 has a bigger launch. Those games do well but not TLOU/Spiderman-well.
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,923
3.5M max debut, LTD somewhere in the 12-15M range

No single SKU of TLOU sold anywhere close to 20M, so that's not a bar for anything.
 

Mars

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,988
...who cares. I just want to know if it will deliver in terms of storytelling, technical wizardry and visuals. I'm not stakeholder in the company so, not really a concern.
 

Decarb

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,678
It will, and it will also beat it long term with PS5 version in 2021. Spiderman 2 will probably be out in that year so it wouldn't matter anyway.
 

ArmGunar

PlayStatistician
Member
Oct 30, 2017
6,527
But wouldn't Spider-man have stronger selling power because of the kids?
Yes that's why on the long term, Spidey will sell more imo
13.2m copies in 10 months and 21 days

But God of War, a more violent game, was able to sell about 10.9m copies (probably as of March 31 2019, given they release their IR Day slide on May 2019) in 11 months and 12 days

Unlike movie entertainment, IMO the video game business allows a game even violent to reach massive numbers if quality is here

I mean, GTA is not a kid-friendly game on the paper but reaches massive numbers
 

IIFloodyII

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,228
I think it'll be very close, but really not confident in saying yes or no. GoW being so close makes me think yes, but Spidey is a completely different beast in terms of overall popularity.
I'll go with yes, because fence sitting is boring.
 

Toni

Banned
Nov 13, 2017
1,983
Orlando, Florida
I'm guessing 4-5 million in 3 days and 20-25 LTD. The LTD is entirely dependent on its reception.
97 metascore for tlou 2 and 4 million in 3 days.

That's my prediction
96 meta and 4.1 mil opening

This is it.

Folks saying 4+ million opening in a 24 or 48 hour period is realistically what we will get.

The pull that Naught Dog's name + PlayStation branding / marketing + positive Critical Reception will have, will be on a scale hitherto undreamt of for a PlayStation exclusive.
 
Last edited:

DieH@rd

Member
Oct 26, 2017
10,679
Sequels of the popular games [especially if marketing/coverage is positive and there is hype] have a very strong potential for strong initial sales.

I think that TLOU2 will break initial sale records of any previous PS4 exclusive. As for total sales, PS4 BC on PS5 will reduce full sales potential even if ND releases upgraded PS5 release.
 

El-Suave

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,832
It'll also depend on the review embargo. If they're out early and almost perfect they'll be heating people's anticipation like it was with God of War. Those one/two weeks of feverish anticipation really helped at launch.
 

Swift_Gamer

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
3,701
Rio de Janeiro
Considering the lack of multiplayer this time around, I don't see the game getting anything higher than a 90 on Metacritic. So when consumers see the muted response from the press, I think many of them will be dissuaded from buying the game due to the perceived lack of value, and that of course will hinder pre-orders and day one sales. So the short answer is: no, I don't see it beating Spider-Man.
Can't see why multiplayer would affect the score.
 

CenaToon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,381
I really hope so.

A game with a female lead AND LGBT as the biggest opener in the biggest console of this gen? That would be fucking amazing and also will send a powerful message to the industry.
 

Edgar

User requested ban
Banned
Oct 29, 2017
7,180
99 metascore and 10 mil in 24 hours. Reviewer will call it Schindlers list of video games
 

Firefly

Member
Jul 10, 2018
8,704
"Is Ellie more popular than Spider-Man now?"

Whether its opening or in the long run I don't know, but I do see Part 2 doing better numbers than Spider-Man.
 

SDR-UK

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,401
Already bought my two copies.

I didn't initially see it beating Spider-Man lifetime sales but I do think TLOU is gonna break all records.
 

VanDoughnut

Member
Oct 30, 2017
3,431
TLOU2 will break all the records, it will be record breaking at breaking records.

"I am gonna find and I'm gonna kill every last of one them (meaning records and sales numbers*)"- Ellie

I want TLOU to win just for the good natured gif of Spidey getting beat up by the sinister six at 2018 E3 demo, but with Joel, Ellie, and Neil's faces superimposed.
 

Chamber

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,281
Yeah, always thought it would and the previews did nothing to dissuade me. WWS has more pull than ever with Playstation fans and Naughty Dog is the signature studio releasing their signature game to an audience of 100+ million.
 

Deleted member 56752

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
May 15, 2019
8,699
people on here will always say TLOU because Naughty Dog is huge and everyone is pumped for w/e they put out. In reality, i believe casuals came out in droves for spidey in a way TLOU2 will not see.
 

Cloud-Strife

Alt-Account
Banned
Sep 27, 2019
3,140
98 Metascore.. 4.2 millions opening.. Spidey will win in the end because it's a fantastic game with huge legs
 

ByWatterson

▲ Legend ▲
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
2,302
It's not just about hype and anticipation. It's also about age. Spider-Man has a bigger target demo. I think it stays up front.
 

jaymzi

Member
Jul 22, 2019
6,574
I remember last year people weren't super optimistic about Spider-Man's sales before it was released saying how the IP's popularity doesn't mean it will translate to game sales, using past Spiderman game sales as examples.

How the narrative has changed.
 

Arex

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,583
Indonesia
Hopefully better metascore than RDR2, and 5m in 3 days wouldn't be too shabby.

Half wishing for zombie stampede rush like the PS4 release tho lol
 

NotLiquid

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
34,882
I think it'll have a better opening but I think its short term legs might be stymied by FFVIIR. Not sure I believe in the 25 million LTD narrative, but I do expect it to beat Uncharted 4 by a bit at least, with Spidey possibly holding the LTD record.
 

IIFloodyII

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,228
people on here will always say TLOU because Naughty Dog is huge and everyone is pumped for w/e they put out. In reality, i believe casuals came out in droves for spidey in a way TLOU2 will not see.
GoW completely blows that thought up. GoW was in spitting distance of Spidey's launch numbers and GoW has never been that level before it, despite all mainline entries being 90+ rated. I think TLoU 2 can top GoW's launch, so I think it's possible it can top Spidey's too.
 

ThisIsBlitz21

Member
Oct 22, 2018
4,663
I don't see it happening, honestly.

Spiderman's marketing the most for a single game I've seen, since like Halo 3. They really went ham on that one, and a lot of casuals really got into that one (anecdotally, my COD/Fortnite friends even got into as well)

It will neither beat that 3 day record, or sell better than than Spiderman lifetime (only comparing the PS4 versions of both, cause it goes without saying that inevitible TLOU2 version on PS5 will skew the results in its favour).
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,345
I don't see it happening, honestly.

Spiderman's marketing the most for a single game I've seen, since like Halo 3. They really went ham on that one, and a lot of casuals really got into that one (anecdotally, my COD/Fortnite friends even got into as well)

It will neither beat that 3 day record, or sell better than than Spiderman lifetime (only comparing the PS4 versions of both, cause it goes without saying that inevitible TLOU2 version on PS5 will skew the results in its favour).
Delusional. Spiderman barely beat GoW's record.
 

Memento

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
8,129
I don't see it happening, honestly.

Spiderman's marketing the most for a single game I've seen, since like Halo 3. They really went ham on that one, and a lot of casuals really got into that one (anecdotally, my COD/Fortnite friends even got into as well)

It will neither beat that 3 day record, or sell better than than Spiderman lifetime (only comparing the PS4 versions of both, cause it goes without saying that inevitible TLOU2 version on PS5 will skew the results in its favour).

And you dont think Sony will go all out with marketing for TLOU2?