Considering the lack of multiplayer this time around, I don't see the game getting anything higher than a 90 on Metacritic. So when consumers see the muted response from the press, I think many of them will be dissuaded from buying the game due to the perceived lack of value, and that of course will hinder pre-orders and day one sales. So the short answer is: no, I don't see it beating Spider-Man.
that's all I got.
I'm guessing 4-5 million in 3 days and 20-25 LTD. The LTD is entirely dependent on its reception.