• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.
Status
Not open for further replies.

SilentPanda

Member
Nov 6, 2017
14,020
Earth
Let's start with gender: across racial and ethnic groups, women shifted towards Trump this cycle. In the last election, Trump won white women by a margin of 9 percentage points. This year, he won by 11 percentage points. In 2016, Democrats won Hispanic and Latina women by 44 percentage points; in 2020 they won by 39. Last cycle, Democrats won black women by 90 percentage points. This year, by 81 points. That is, in a year when a black woman was on a major party ticket for the first time in US history, the margin between Democrats and Republicans among black women shifted 9 percentage points in the other direction – towards Trump.

Trump saw comparable gains with Black and Hispanic men as well.

Overall, comparing 2016 and 2020, Trump gained 4 percentage points with African Americans, 3 percentage points with Hispanics and Latinos, and 5 percentage points with Asian Americans. The shifts described in Edison's exit polls are verified by AP Votecast, which showed similar movement among black and Hispanic voters this cycle.

In fact, Democrat losses with minority voters precede Trump's candidacy. Over the course of Obama's tenure in office, Democrats saw attrition with black and Hispanic voters in 2010, 2012 and 2014. Trump won in 2016 precisely of this long-running erosion. Despite lackluster support among whites for the Republican candidate, Asian, Black and Hispanic voters continued to defect from the Democratic party – tipping key swing states in Trump's direction, and handing him the election.

In the leadup to the 2020 election, the polling continued to tell the story it'd been telling all along: Trump was poised to see continued defections from whites, while Democrats would see continued attrition among voters of color. The trends in the polling were consistent and clear.

www.theguardian.com

White men swung to Biden. Trump made gains with Black and Latino voters. Why? | Musa al-Gharbi

Minorities and women – the very people who are supposed to be central to the Democratic coalition – seem to have shifted in Trump’s direction this year
 

Deleted member 23212

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
11,225
"What changed in the racial and gender dynamics this cycle to produce these apparently extraordinary results? The truth is, absolutely nothing. These trends have been underway for the entirety of Trump's public life."

Well, there's your answer the article gives. Absolutely nothing.
 

alr1ght

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,095
Weren't most exit polls for this election completely unreliable due to the vast amount of mail in votes?
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Weren't most exit polls for this election completely unreliable due to the vast amount of mail in votes?
Yeah, basically. Most demographic shifts are a black box.

The things we can say with certainty:
-Turnout was up across the board, Trump got a lot of people that don't usually vote, but so did Biden.
-Biden won Georgia because of black voters (Just cause, ya know, 31% black).
-Biden won Michigan because of black voters in Detroit.
-Biden won Arizona because of Latino and Native American voters (You get this by counties he carried).
-Biden lost Florida because of Cuban voters (Miami-Dade not coming in as well as it did for Hillary).
-Biden did better than Hillary in suburbs and rural areas that are majority white
-Biden's Popular Vote victory was pretty damn massive in the modern era.

Beyond that? We know fuck all.
 

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,864
Looking at the article... "Exit poll data".
Yep.
Worthless, particularly this cycle.
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,987
México
Mexican here, and this anecdotal.

I live in the border with TX. The International Bridge is literally 10 minutes away from my home, and I get to go the USA a couple of times per month for shopping and stuff. Both cities are neighborhood cities, and everyone has relatives and friends in both countries.

The USA city is mostly hispanic people, and they all support Trump. Why? Because hispanic people with mexican heritage and culture don't know a lot of USA politics.

They support Trump because he is popular. And surprisingly, every hispanic person I know living in the USA, they want to leave their Mexican heritage in the past. They are basically ashamed of being Mexicans, and that's why they support Trump's immigration policies. They don't want any more Mexicans in the USA but them ("fuck them I got mine" mentality).

This is merely anecdotal, but this is what I have noticed at least in the border.
 

Ahuitzotl

Member
Jun 11, 2020
431
I'm not surprised about some black people not voting for Copmala and the architect of the crime bill tbh, I know people who spite voted for trump.
 

madstarr12

Member
Jan 25, 2018
2,571
I feel like the Democrats just didn't do enough aggressive voter registration and GOTV efforts across the board. Outreach matters. Some communities are not easy to reach via only digital platforms.
 

B-Dubs

That's some catch, that catch-22
General Manager
Oct 25, 2017
33,042
Weren't most exit polls for this election completely unreliable due to the vast amount of mail in votes?
Exit polls in general are useless. We'll have actual data to draw conclusions from in a few months. Of course, no one really pays attention to that data.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
I feel like the Democrats just didn't do enough aggressive voter registration and GOTV efforts across the board. Outreach matters. Some communities are not easy to reach via only digital platforms.
That's, uh, what they did. Stacey Abrams registered 900k people, for example? If you're saying there wasn't enough door to door stuff, we're kinda in the middle of a pandemic?

Exit polls in general are useless. We'll have actual data to draw conclusions from in a few months. Of course, no one really pays attention to that data.
The problem with that data is that it will have the same Trumper hole in it that pre-election polls had.
 

Grug

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,647
White men like white men, so the needle was always going to correct a little after Hillary.

Latinos are more complex, some are highly conservative (and Catholic), others have a Pavlovian reflex to the word Socialist, others (along with some black voters) just got seduced by the seductive cult and conspiracy flavors of Trumpmania.
 

Video Kojima

Banned
Apr 5, 2020
2,541
The election became much more prominent,than ever. People who didn't care about voting in ordinary times, and probably won't again, felt like participating.

Voting in this election, became a way for people to either:

A: To put a stop to the madness and horrific events of the past 4 years.

B: Participate in the (right wing) media personalities' amplified poisonous discourse they've been watching the past 4 years. And be part of "the game" of politics. These people will likely not vote again if the discourse dies down.

C: Support Donald Trump and vote for him because of Facebook conspiracy theories that amplify their deepest fears. For example, Cuban immigrants who are right wing/extreme right wing, and left Cuba after Castro.

B and C is probably where Trump made some percentage gains in minority voters. Whereas the majority of minority voters fall in A.
 

madstarr12

Member
Jan 25, 2018
2,571
That's, uh, what they did. Stacey Abrams registered 900k people, for example? If you're saying there wasn't enough door to door stuff, we're kinda in the middle of a pandemic?


The problem with that data is that it will have the same Trumper hole in it that pre-election polls had.
Well, across the board in general. When getting to specifics, Georgia is an exception. There weren't Stacey Abrams in every state. And well, republicans did that, and they reached more voters. So it's not surprising that R turnout was really high too.
 

Mr. Keith

Member
Oct 31, 2017
1,944
I think Trump's talent at being a huge conman plays a huge part. Just because you're a minority doesn't mean you're immune to the grift.

Trump was saying and promising almost anything to anyone and if you're vulnerable to that type of persuasion you get stuck in the web along with everyone else.

There was also no shortage of fake shit people put out there to back up Trump and make him look legit too. They paid actors to go to his rallies to make it look more diverse and all those fake groups like Blacks for Trump and the like. It's a mess to process to say the least.
 

Speevy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
19,406
We know only one thing, which is that more people voted for Trump this time than voted for Trump last time.

His ignorance-peddling, chest-beating fascist bullshit has a populist appeal with Americans. We have some major problems in this country.

And yet, we beat his fucking ass anyway.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Well, across the board in general. When getting to specifics, Georgia is an exception. There weren't Stacey Abrams in every state. And well, republicans did that, and they reached more voters. So it's not surprising that R turnout was really high too.
Stacey also worked in other states to do that.

Anyways, Dem turnout was ridiculously high this election. The problem is there are a lot more Trumpers than expected.
 

Canyon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,464
Ohio
There are two good videos from Democracy now and their own Juan Gonzalez. His point is more about the gains among whites and not this idea that PoCs are flocking to become Republicans.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,942
Maybe the Democratic Party should you know, do things to address the black voters that actually came out and voted for them and the ones that didn't. Instead of going for the white voters who will vote red regardless
 

madstarr12

Member
Jan 25, 2018
2,571
Stacey also worked in other states to do that.

Anyways, Dem turnout was ridiculously high this election. The problem is there are a lot more Trumpers than expected.

Yes, but I feel like so many opportunities were left behind. Most polls didn't catch the huge republican surge. Plus, house democrats were also caught off guard and didn't expect this level of republican turnout.

 

Merv

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,472
Democrats are courting the moderate/right. The "left" and the right are so close policy wise at this point that single issue voters are more easily swayed. Also cult of personality is amplified.
 

iksenpets

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,541
Dallas, TX
Exit polling data is bad, but county-level data definitely implies that there were swings among Hispanic and Black voters, and anecdotal reporting would definitely suggest it's largely among men.

Obviously the Cuban problem was unique, with the combination of a rising amount of "socialist" branding among Democrats and Trump's willingness to indulge the darkest tendencies of Latin American right-wing politics added up to big Trump gains.

Beyond that, notions of masculinity transcend culture. It's not surprising that the appeals that have put an unprecedented political wedge between white men and white women would also appeal to Black and Hispanic men. Fuck your feelings, fuck these eggheads in universities and the media, fuck your white-collar boss, those all have universal appeal to disaffected men regardless of race. The pro-police stuff: for all the focus it gets as a racial issue, lots of Black and Hispanic men are or aspire to be cops. It's a masculine appeal. It's one of the more prestigious working-class jobs. On the border, lots of young Hispanic men work for Border Patrol or aspire to. Those same thing that brought uneducated white men on board are spreading.

I don't really know what you do about any of that, since I would never want to abandon policing reform or any other social progressivism, or embrace militarism to try to appeal to these men, but the message really does seem to have slightly deracialized the electorate, even in the presence of an explicitly racist movement.
 

Deleted member 10908

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,256
Mexican here, and this anecdotal.

I live in the border with TX. The International Bridge is literally 10 minutes away from my home, and I get to go the USA a couple of times per month for shopping and stuff. Both cities are neighborhood cities, and everyone has relatives and friends in both countries.

The USA city is mostly hispanic people, and they all support Trump. Why? Because hispanic people with mexican heritage and culture don't know a lot of USA politics.

They support Trump because he is popular. And surprisingly, every hispanic person I know living in the USA, they want to leave their Mexican heritage in the past. They are basically ashamed of being Mexicans, and that's why they support Trump's immigration policies. They don't want any more Mexicans in the USA but them ("fuck them I got mine" mentality).

This is merely anecdotal, but this is what I have noticed at least in the border.
Noticed very similar behavior with latinos in Miami, especially cubans and venezuelans. A lot of them also have very conservative values and were pretty religious before they moved to the US so theyre not just going to drop their values because they moved to a different country
 

Watchtower

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,742
Yeah, basically. Most demographic shifts are a black box.

The things we can say with certainty:
-Turnout was up across the board, Trump got a lot of people that don't usually vote, but so did Biden.
-Biden won Georgia because of black voters (Just cause, ya know, 31% black).
-Biden won Michigan because of black voters in Detroit.
-Biden won Arizona because of Latino and Native American voters (You get this by counties he carried).
-Biden lost Florida because of Cuban voters (Miami-Dade not coming in as well as it did for Hillary).
-Biden did better than Hillary in suburbs and rural areas that are majority white
-Biden's Popular Vote victory was pretty damn massive in the modern era.

Beyond that? We know fuck all.

It's not as certain but it does really seem like the Biden campaign's inability to target Latinos directly hurt them badly to the point of arguably costing them Texas.
 

Solid SOAP

One Winged Slayer
Member
Nov 27, 2017
8,333
your mom's house
Many white liberals don't seem to understand that there is a lot of conservatism amongst POC, especially those from older generations. Trump is a virus, but many people are simply party-line voters and was most likely chosen as the "lesser of 2 evils" by a lot of people, including POC.
 
Mar 18, 2020
2,434
the majority of those 70 mil+ trump votes were still white men, and there have always been cornball idiots everywhere else


I'm not surprised about some black people not voting for Copmala and the architect of the crime bill tbh, I know people who spite voted for trump.

Didn't like the crime bill so they voted for the guy who called for the execution of 5 wrongly accused black men

sounds smart
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
It's not as certain but it does really seem like the Biden campaign's inability to target Latinos directly hurt them badly to the point of arguably costing them Texas.
It really doesn't look like Texas was on the table beyond a brief polling spike. Biden didn't do bad in Texas relative to other dems so I don't think that was a problem really. The Texas margin was the absolute least surprising thing for me on election night (I'd have been more shocked to win it).
 

Kayla

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,316
I would not be so quick to blame these POC voters. its democratic failure to reach out to these latinos, biden didn't even try to appeal to them.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
I really feel like this topic is just spreading FUD from particularly inaccurate exit polling that's catnip to confirm some people's priors. Someone needs to at least change the title.
 

TheHunter

Bold Bur3n Wrangler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
25,774
I'm not surprised about some black people not voting for Copmala and the architect of the crime bill tbh, I know people who spite voted for trump.
This position might make sense if they weren't voting for a man who to this day still wanted the Central Park 5 executed, calls BLM rioters and looters and actively suppresses monitories.
 

Ahuitzotl

Member
Jun 11, 2020
431
the majority of those 70 mil+ trump votes were still white men, and there have always been cornball idiots everywhere else




Didn't like the crime bill so they voted for the guy who called for the execution of 5 wrongly accused black men

sounds smart
????? They are not even comparable, the crime bill effect on the black community was devastating and is still effecting us today.
 

Dodongo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,464
Incumbency + unrelenting propaganda centered around a male-dominated traditionalism.
 

Kino

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,337
I think Trumps stance on China was very appealing for immigrants who came from communist/socialist countries, which would explain why he made gains with Viet and Cubans. I'm guessing upper class minorities also liked him for the tax cuts he put in place.

As for black voters, I hate to say it but I think the BLM riots had a role there. At least here in Houston, the riots were looked down upon by older black people that my dad worked with and I can imagine the sentiment carried over to other cities.
 

madstarr12

Member
Jan 25, 2018
2,571
But incumbency does help, easily explains this tbh. Bush did better with Latinos, Asian Americans and African Americans in 2004 compared to 2000 based on exit polls.

It was ~62-35 Gore +27 in 2000 for Latinos.
It was ~53-44 Kerry +9 in 2004 for Latinos.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.