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US PoliEra 2020 |OT4| Disaster Voltron
- Thread starter Ogodei
- Start date
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If Biden finished with a 6-point popular vote lead over Trump, he's doing a net 4 points better than Clinton.
Either that's more or less a universal overperformance in which he holds all of Clinton's states and scoops up Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nebraska's 2nd, North Carolina and Florida (while keeping Georgia within ~1% and Texas, Ohio and Iowa within ~5%) orrr
He's doing catastrophically bad in swing states while somehow maxing out his margins in blue states.
There's a degree to which the latter could still happen, but Biden winning by 6 and somehow still losing the Electoral College would be an extreme outlier. If Clinton had just run a point better she would have won, don't lose sight of how close 2016 was or assume the EC bias towards Republicans is insurmountable.
It reminds me of that novel that came out a few years ago that was written in fake old English, The Wake, by Paul Kingsnorth. Weird at first, but you get used to it. Only Cher's is futuristic hieroglyphs. CD Projekt Red should hire Cher to develop their cyberpunk language.
I thought that youth turnout IS higher, but as a share of overall turnout it is lower because more people from older age groups are turning out also.
3 points is what I've been mentally checking as the safety, a 5 or more point win margin for Biden resulting in an EC/PV split is practically impossible.
One thing about Cher is she is incredibly dyslexic. When she did the Sonny and Cher Show, and then later the Cher Show, she actually memorized all of her lines instead of reading off cards as was typical for sketch shows. It's one of the reasons she's never done SNL.
It's the same pattern you saw in the UK in 2017. The issue is, as it was then, that the "turn out young people" electoral theory doesn't work because even when they turn out more, other groups turn out in greater numbers because the factors that lead to increased support with that demographic are universal and affect all of them.
So anything less than 2.5 is not good, 3 is probably a Win, and 4+ is pretty safe for an EC victory then?
Thats fucking criminal.
Thats fucking criminal.
Even at 3M over, the Republicans still made baseless claims of vote irregularities and opened an investigation (that went nowhere). But if they win by 1 hanging chad, it's totally fair and the people have spoken. It's an absurd double standard. Even several of the Dem candidates recently said we have to win big to dispel any questions about the legitimacy.
Interesting that he lists flu and accidents but does not list gun shot related deaths as that's around 34k and higher than the flu..
Timothy Johnson on Twitter
“Alex Jones is on air saying that he was arrested for a DUI last night, he is professing his innocence.”
twitter.com
The Deep State is at it again.
I mean, it should be pointed out too that Biden (or any Democrat) winning by less than 2.5% isn't like, an automatic loss. The Electoral College bias actually favored Democrats in 2004, 2008 and 2012, it's just that the victory margins for Bush and Obama in those years were so definitive it didn't really matter.
Kerry's loss margin in Ohio was smaller than his loss margin nationwide - if he'd just run 2.1% better, he still would have lost the popular vote by a whopping 0.3% and won the Electoral College anyway.
The same is true for Obama - Colorado was his tipping point state in both of his elections, and in 2008 he ran about 2% better there than he did nationally (winning by 9 in CO, winning by 7 in the popular vote). In 2012 he won Colorado by ~5.5% while winning the popular vote by 4%, so a similar overperformance.
Hillary vs. Trump accelerated some underlying demographic trends in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that meant they would trend Republican eventually, but Obama overperformed so much in those states it barely registered with anyone that it'd be a problem. Whether you want to chalk that up to Obama being an exceptionally strong candidate or Clinton being an exceptionally weak one, it's probably a little bit of both.
Long-term game plan is probably that the "blue wall" states will either go fully Republican or at best become red-leaning swing states (I think this is where Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania will end up, whereas Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio land in the first category), but Democrats can make up for it by winning Arizona and North Carolina more consistently along with purple Texas and Georgia. Florida will probably stubbornly remain a few points to the right of the nation, meaning it's winnable but likely a win-more state in national elections rather than a reliable part of the Democratic coalition.
Interesting. I remember Trump announcing last year,
"We will be ending the AIDS epidemic shortly in America, and curing childhood cancer very shortly."
Just voted here in Michigan
A bit frustrated to see the ballots weren't updated to remove candidates who dropped out of the race
Feels a little dirty but Voters SHOULD be informed at this point.
A bit frustrated to see the ballots weren't updated to remove candidates who dropped out of the race
Feels a little dirty but Voters SHOULD be informed at this point.
I hear you. Six points is right on that fringe, it could be 4 in which case it's damn tight in swing states, or it could be 8 in which it's a route. I'm suggesting caution because national polls can be very misleading, especially this far out. I'm far more interested in how the polls shift in the individual states.
Personally, my stance has long been that the Democratic nominee is going to run up huge margins in states like Virginia, NY, California, Illinois, but we're going to run tight in swing states. With Biden's polling in swing states I'm a little less worried about that, but there's still a long time to go until November. I personally think that the election is likely to come down to one or two states (or even just a single/handful of EC votes), while the Dem wins the popular vote by 5+ million. In some of the models I've seen, we can win the popular vote by as much as 7 million and still lose the EC. It isn't likely but nor is it impossible; it's one of those situations where there may only be a 5% chance, but would you get on an airplane if there was a 5% chance it would crash?
Warren's name will probably be on my ballot a month away but still going to vote for Biden. If somehow Bernie gets the hint and drops out then maybe I'll vote for Warren. There's still a race so I will act accordingly.
Yeah it won't really matter. Didn't materially affect any ST states. Voters are aware of their choices.
You can vote for anyone you like though if you can write-in a candidate, so what's the difference?
Honestly, it's best to no pay too much attention to national polls. Spend your efforts looking at polls from North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arizona, and Michigan. If the Dems can get four of those 7 then we win.
Yeah totally, concern and caution (in reasonable doses!) is good, especially after most of us got overly confident in 2016 only to be devastated by the results, just offering a ray of sunshine as I always do.
"reading" this was an experience.
Yeah I was a little surprised the ballot was as long as it was lol. Was expecting it to be quite a bit shorter. I didn't look, but I htink had the full list to pick from.
AFAIK the postage is ad hoc and not permanently funded, and only happened because King country forced the states hand. Before 2019 you always had to pay postage, and we may have to pay postage again in the future.
If we bailout the oil companies so they can increase prices I will be so goddamn angry.
Thank God the Dems hold the purse strings right now, this shit is ridiculous.
This is just disheartening. In the age of Trump, the youth vote is down. What the hell..
I mean all those oil companies are in the business of building big stuff fairly efficiently right?
Let's get them building more productive big stuff! Shale oil investment was junk bond level speculative and that entire market is now FULL of toxic assets (this is what they want bailed out-the worthless corp bonds and debt, which are held by banks, who-again-don't want to absorb losses in assets classes they see as safe in bankruptcy).
Let's get them building more productive big stuff! Shale oil investment was junk bond level speculative and that entire market is now FULL of toxic assets (this is what they want bailed out-the worthless corp bonds and debt, which are held by banks, who-again-don't want to absorb losses in assets classes they see as safe in bankruptcy).
I would say Trump has made many people my age want to care less about politics. Its become an annoyance to them whereas before it was 'just there'. Privileged people for sure, but that accounts for a lot of people in these United States...
They are syntactically sound. Some fragments for sure, but the meaning is conveyed very well through contextual clues and some more recognizable symbols. It's far clearer writing than anything Trump has ever said and is one of the more intelligible uses of emoji I've ever come across.
Oh, damn. Much respect to her on that.
I had a student some years ago who was clearly dyslexic but never self-disclosed. Spelling was all over the place, and some grammar was questionable. Funny thing is, I could read their essays so quickly. The errors were so consistent it verged into dialect. They inadvertently invented a better form of English.
These people are so fucking stupid. A payroll tax cut doesn't do shit if you're not working!
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