Kinda surprised we don't see states like Washington activate National Guard units to help with testing and response to the Coronavirus.
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 3| "I think he's learned his lesson" says The Concerned Immoderate Darling Collins.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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I'd be willing to bet he won't be viable in Mississippi. Hell, if someone makes an ad about his comments on the failure of the Mississippi Democratic party on courting racists to vote for Obama, he might be closer to 0% than 15%.
I suppose.
Biden had a good news cycle because he had a blow-out win. He just had another blow-out win.
After today's Sanders presser, there's no way anyone will see sanders = warren or warren = sanders. Warren supporters already know they're not getting Warren in Sanders.
But that presser - being purposely, stubbornly unappealing and insulting to those who voted yesterday is inexcusable and maybe unrecoverable. I was stunned and disheartened watching it. He'll be on Maddow later with what I assume will be a do-over of today.
I said last night that it wasn't over, at all. But with that attitude on display today, I just don't know now.
But that presser - being purposely, stubbornly unappealing and insulting to those who voted yesterday is inexcusable and maybe unrecoverable. I was stunned and disheartened watching it. He'll be on Maddow later with what I assume will be a do-over of today.
I said last night that it wasn't over, at all. But with that attitude on display today, I just don't know now.
I mean she was also not subtly blaming Warren for denying Bernie the win in Minnesota and other states.
Warren really wants that wealth tax.If there is a way to get it as a admin priority she'll try to make it happen.
Legit good point, the class difference between 'owned a place before/after 2012' in Seattle is stark. Similar story played out in the rest of the West. The thing is that the solutions are local-tear down nimby zoning and restore missing middle housing and crank up the density.
I can see either Biden or Bernie winning the WA primary at this point. Not every part of the state is RL rose twitter, heck not even all of Seattle is like that.
edit: Minnesota has a large number of women voters and a high degree of college education. I really don't think Warren leaving the race there would be a net large benefit for Sanders. Biden won MN because he had an an incredibly powerful ally with a team that turned on a dime and got him what he needed to win. It's actually incredible how low Amy's % was when the votes were counted given she left the race the day before voting. People were clearly sitting on their ballots right up to the end.
Legit good point, the class difference between 'owned a place before/after 2012' in Seattle is stark. Similar story played out in the rest of the West. The thing is that the solutions are local-tear down nimby zoning and restore missing middle housing and crank up the density.
I can see either Biden or Bernie winning the WA primary at this point. Not every part of the state is RL rose twitter, heck not even all of Seattle is like that.
edit: Minnesota has a large number of women voters and a high degree of college education. I really don't think Warren leaving the race there would be a net large benefit for Sanders. Biden won MN because he had an an incredibly powerful ally with a team that turned on a dime and got him what he needed to win. It's actually incredible how low Amy's % was when the votes were counted given she left the race the day before voting. People were clearly sitting on their ballots right up to the end.
Right. that confuses the issue- it should probably be a Clinton state since she won the popular vote but Sanders got more delegates from the caucus.
Biden had a good news cycle not just because he had a blow out win, but the entire not-sanders wing of the party rallied behind him, two people dropped out, and he got three endorsements within a day and a half from Beto, Amy, and Pete and then bookended it by winning 10 of 14 super tuesday states.
This isn't just a "good news cycle" it was a completely unprecedented event in American politics, and it was heavily orchestrated by the party. There is 0% chance of anything on that level happening for Sanders, especially since the party hates him and he has no allies to pull it off. You're basically praying for a meteor to strike Biden dead on the spot.
As a Warren fan I could really go either way. The potential Senate map with Biden is really enticing and I think he is the "safer" bet to win vs Trump.
Who each chooses as VP is really way more important this year than usual, since both are going to be over 80 in their first term.
Who each chooses as VP is really way more important this year than usual, since both are going to be over 80 in their first term.
She won the non-binding primary, bernie won the binding caucus.
It wasn't unexpected, though. He got a good news cycle because he massively overperformed what everyone thought he would do in South Carolina. Then you had the rollout of the endorsements to keep him in the news and limit Sander's exposure. Bernie got stomped yesterday. There is no one in the media who is going to want to give him the benefit of the doubt on his performance. It was straight up bad. If Bernie had endorsements to roll out? That would be something, I guess. But, at this point, I really think the fundamentals of the race have changed drastically. There isn't a debate until the week after the March 10th contests.
Thanks for the clarification.
As someone from Washington, I can honestly say I don't know what is going to happen here in our primary. One of the issues with the non-binding primary was also that it happened 2+ months later. We have a ton of very liberal democrats in this state but also definitely some older guard, my family being some of those people who really don't like Sanders. I am voting at this point to push forward, originally if she was still in and doing well enough (and Biden didn't surge back) I was planning to vote for Warren, but now voting for Biden to end it and move on to the thing I really care about, going after the opposition. I think it will be more competitive then either the caucus or the primary showed in 2016 though.
The non-binding primary Clinton won also came two months after the caucus and it was at the end of May, when it was clear that Bernie was going to lose (edit: as mentioned by Allard right above me).
I would tend to (slightly) favor Bernie, even in a primary, given the stat's demographics...but it'll be an interesting one to watch. I'd be surprised if a Bernie win was anything but a close one, too.
I would tend to (slightly) favor Bernie, even in a primary, given the stat's demographics...but it'll be an interesting one to watch. I'd be surprised if a Bernie win was anything but a close one, too.
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Not sure how many UK people are here, but Samantha Power's The Education of an Idealist is on the Amazon UK Kindle Daily Deal, at just 99p. Doesn't seem to be available on Amazon US Kindle, though. :/
We don't have the capacity to test people, we don't have anywhere to put them.
It's not something that more bodies can solve.
You might be the only who thought it was unexpected, given the number of people exclaiming about an unprecedented turnaround performance Biden put in yesterday.
I don't think Bernie is likely to win the nomination. I don't know what event or news cycle or perfect storm of things happening can break his way to put him back in pole position. But many said the same thing about Biden a week ago. Everyone expected him to win in SC and do well in a bunch of ST states, but he crushed it beyond those expectations. He went from dead in the water to frontrunner way faster than anyone was projecting. So I don't think it's unreasonable to think, however implausible it may be, that something else can defy expectations to break Bernie's way because shit defying expectations has been running the theme of this primary. I wouldn't bank on it, but it wouldn't be out of the ordinary for this race!
There aren't really any polls I would call recent, but RCP had washington pretty split:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Washington Democratic Primary
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Washington Democratic Primary
Sanders at 23, Biden 15, Bloomberg 13, Warren 13, Pete 8, Amy 7, Steyer 1.
This is probably not going to be a good state for Sanders, all things considered.
The only thing that I could see helping Sanders is better than expected California late returns putting him in the delegate lead (is this even possible?), the media not wanting the race to end so playing up sanders in the lead even after the Biden comeback (ignoring the upcoming states not being good for him), and then a Warren endorsement. Even then that would only put him in play but at at severe disadvantage.
Seattle is going through a pretty serious COVID-19 situation right now to the point where M4A i think will be getting hefty tangible support in the form of a vote for Bernie. But who knows!
I agree with your take on Mississippi. If he is viable there, I'd be shocked.There aren't really any polls I would call recent, but RCP had washington pretty split:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Washington Democratic Primary
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Washington Democratic Primarywww.realclearpolitics.com
Sanders at 23, Biden 15, Bloomberg 13, Warren 13, Pete 8, Amy 7, Steyer 1.
This is probably not going to be a good state for Sanders, all things considered.
It's really strange how we have no good polls this cycle. Very weird.
I think this is coming pretty quickly to help with getting testing done, moving supplies around, and contract tracing interviews. King County is more or less one step away from lockdown.
Hmm. His best remaining shot is appealing to her and her voters. Guess the humbling is too big an ask.
What we're saying is that what happened with Biden wasn't something unpredictable that came out of nowhere. It wasn't an accident, and Biden didn't get lucky. Behind the scenes the party leadership sat down and orchestrated the entire thing and did so precisely at the time that it would have the greatest impact and hurt Sanders the most.
I have no doubt plans for it were in place BEFORE Biden won South Carolina- the huge win just gave everyone the green light.
Sanders completely lacks the relationships and political allies necessary to pull off anything similar. It's simply not possible.
The things Bernie needs to fix to make this a race are the same problems he's had since the dawn of his candidacy:
1) Old voters
2) African American voters in the South
3) Not having such a large gender gap*
I have no idea what kind of events could transpire to fix these issues.
*I am not saying Bernie only has male supporters. I am not downplaying Bernie's female or non-binary supporters. It's just that in pretty much every state he performed worse among women than men, and was, in fact, the only candidate for whom that was true.
1) Old voters
2) African American voters in the South
3) Not having such a large gender gap*
I have no idea what kind of events could transpire to fix these issues.
*I am not saying Bernie only has male supporters. I am not downplaying Bernie's female or non-binary supporters. It's just that in pretty much every state he performed worse among women than men, and was, in fact, the only candidate for whom that was true.
Yep, this is true. Every poll out there is complete trash. I can't imagine one could extrapolate that polling for Sanders would get *better* after the super Tuesday debacle though.
if there is anything i have learned, is media doesn't like to go back and rewrite their own history. Even if Sanders managed to get a lot more delegates at the end of this then he has now by then the media will have moved on and it will be inconsequential, much like who won the Iowa caucus really stopped mattering after NH and nevada. It just wasn't part of anyone's calculus which ended up benefiting neither Buttigege or Sanders in media coverage. Media likes to build their own stories and only really changes momentum when something large happens in real time. In the end nothing short of a couple state upsets, states that Biden "should win" or "should dominate" is likely to change Sanders Narrative. He needs to do better then expected in some of next tuesdays states to turn his messaging around and I really dont see it happening.
I don't care! I WANTS THEM.
I also didn't know Biden ended up winning TX by almost 100k votes.
This is one of my favorite indicators. Sometimes it's off (1995/2016), but it's a decent barometer on the industrial economy at least.
As a Warren fan I am going to follow the progressive policies. Not a fan of Bernie, but I am also not a fan of "well Biden is the safe pick" or "people are going to go out and vote against Trump".... it's literally a repeat of 2016.
The more people don't require Biden to become a better candidate and take some risks progressively the easier it will be for Republicans to use voter suppression and election fuckery to steal another election. Candidates got to earn people's votes and Biden's Luigi strategy is literally "do nothing".
The more people don't require Biden to become a better candidate and take some risks progressively the easier it will be for Republicans to use voter suppression and election fuckery to steal another election. Candidates got to earn people's votes and Biden's Luigi strategy is literally "do nothing".
I told y'all Biden was going to be underrated there
edit:
Biden lost white voters, hispanics, and asians to sanders, but carried black voters by a massive 60-17.
Annie Linskey @AnnieLinskeyUpdate: Warren allies have also been in talks with people in Biden's camp about and endorsement if she drops. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/warren-to-think-through-her-future-top-aide-says/2020/03/04/bf7d20ca-5e38-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html …
7:47 PM - Mar 4, 2020
I've expected this and hope she does it soon.
I still think Biden has this, and I hope for an early end to the primary.
What's the reasoning for this? Is it policy-related, or messenger-related? I'm assuming the latter, since if he strikes me (40+ straight white male) as a guy who just mansplains everything, then women are just like "Fuckno!", but that's based on feelings, so...
I don't get the 'repeat of 2016' thing.
Biden is doing as well with working class voters as Bernie is, retains the rest of the Clinton vote, and carries the totality of the 2018 realignment gains.
Biden will not win the white working class vote back. But he will lose it less. And losing less is exactly how you win big.
Biden is doing as well with working class voters as Bernie is, retains the rest of the Clinton vote, and carries the totality of the 2018 realignment gains.
Biden will not win the white working class vote back. But he will lose it less. And losing less is exactly how you win big.
I mean, I hate to say it, but this actually makes more sense than Bernie. It would be the true "unity candidate" move, and would allow Warren to push the pragmatic policies which she thinks are the right moves for the current political landscape. It would also allow Biden to be seen to be moving left, but not too far left, and would mean he could reasonably say no to some of Bernie's demands on the basis that he's already given concessions to the progressive wing (which Warren undoubtedly is a part of). Also, I think Biden is probably fine with a wealth tax.
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