I don't think so. If anyone can find any instance of this ever happening, I'd love to know.
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 3| "I think he's learned his lesson" says The Concerned Immoderate Darling Collins.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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I don't think so. If anyone can find any instance of this ever happening, I'd love to know.
RCP has him at 7.7% in CA, and at least half of all the CA votes will have been cast before he dropped out...I'd say he clears 5% which would be upwards of 250,000 votes.
I didn't say anything about North Carolina, that's almost assuredly going to Biden. As for Virginia, Bernie actually polls pretty well there and it'd be a big upset for a state most would expect Biden to carry. Biden's polling seems to hover around 13-15 points in Cali and that's not factoring a boost from South Carolina. I could see late undecideds breaking to Biden after SC and Pete out of the race putting him over viability.
The thing in this messy scenario though is if dems cave and put M4A (bernies version)in the party platform. I have always felt like that was going to be the messiest and most contentious issue in any "healing" process
This seems the likely scenario. The best result is that Sanders gets a commanding lead Tuesday and carries that to a majority, because I wonder what concessions Bernie can give and not alienate his own movement.
I hadn't even considered the knock-on effects yet but yeah, it's going to hit hard.
Didn't they call Bill Clinton the comeback kid because he lost Iowa to come back and take NH?
Time to send our coins to North Korea to remind them that there's supposed to be peace.
I think that would have to be essentially a public option - M4A Who want it. Allow it to be a plan as a choice alongside existing employer offers - obviously if you're a contractor or otherwise don't have insurance through work, you can opt into a Medicare plan at any age at the appropriate income-based pricing. But in the legislation, he'll have to make it competitive where workers and employers would prefer people go to that plan due to it being one larger pool - reducing individual costs over existing pricing/offers. That means competitive pricing for employees and less needed subsidies on the part of employers.
That's a compromise I think that's quite reasonable while still having a chance to revolutionize the healthcare industry.
The sample size of democratic primaries is tiny. The sample size of democratic primaries with this many candidates hitting viability is much smaller. Not even to mention the delegate counts haven't remained the same over time.
I wished I liked Biden or Sanders more. Both kind of suck in their own ways and I feel put off by either "surging" :/
I will at least say, to Sanders defense, this notion of "OMG HE CAN'T POSSIBLY WIN SO WE GOTTA PANIC AND SCREAM" seems unwarranted. For a lot of Dem elites, I feel they are making an electablity argument but they are doing it more based on their feelings than straight facts (like say Sanders was consistently trailing Trump by like 7 points in every poll then it would make more sense to put the brakes on him).
I don't recall exactly what I said a few weeks ago so maybe I gotta eat some crow but nothing about the above ever seemed outlandish. It was more a "best case scenario for Biden" not a "when pigs fly" scenario.
I mean yes, Warren was the best candidate running and what you said is exactly why I liked her the most. But alas...
I will at least say, to Sanders defense, this notion of "OMG HE CAN'T POSSIBLY WIN SO WE GOTTA PANIC AND SCREAM" seems unwarranted. For a lot of Dem elites, I feel they are making an electablity argument but they are doing it more based on their feelings than straight facts (like say Sanders was consistently trailing Trump by like 7 points in every poll then it would make more sense to put the brakes on him).
So my predictions from two weeks ago are mostly coming true:
US PoliEra 2020 |OT 2| Dershowitz says "Quid Pro Quo on the Go?" [See Staff Post]
I'm going to make bold (most likely wrong) predictions. - Biden will squeak out a 2nd place finish in Iowa, staying his political execution. - Bloomberg will qualify for the Wednesday debate - Bloomberg will under-perform in the debate - The combination of a mediocre debate and negative...www.resetera.com
I pretty much nailed it except for Booty getting out before Super Tuesday. Keep in mind these predictions seemed mostly outlandish two weeks ago.
I don't recall exactly what I said a few weeks ago so maybe I gotta eat some crow but nothing about the above ever seemed outlandish. It was more a "best case scenario for Biden" not a "when pigs fly" scenario.
I mean yes, Warren was the best candidate running and what you said is exactly why I liked her the most. But alas...
Wasn't Clinton actually lead Obama after Super Tuesday? The big story was she was winning, but not by as much as she should and all the 'coming' states were awful for her which is why some at the time saw the writing on the wall.
My predictions from a few weeks ago are kinda halfsies. I guessed the same person wouldn't win both Iowa and NH and that Bernie would win NH. Which... sorta? Butti technically won Iowa. I also guessed Biden would win Nevada. Goose egg on that. South carolina was a gimme.
Nah, what he is trying to do is fracture the party. He's riling up Sanders voters so that if he doesn't get the nomination, all the Bernie supporters will stay home because they'll feel slighted.
to get the nomination wrapped up...... then again this may have been a message in preparation for a brokered convention.
I think I say this every couple of days she owes nothing to Bernie politically
Do we as a country even have the bandwidth to deal with this in the media? Like it feels like Kim saying don't forget about me........ also has NK been hit with covid 19 cause so has?
And he also doesn't want to face Biden. They're not mutually exclusive.
de Blasio is less popular than Bloomberg amongst NYC Democrats. Lol, what a shit.
New California poll.
It still has Pete in it, but part of it was done after the South Carolina primary:
Biden and Warren would be viable if this poll were to become the actual results.
But uh...damn Bernie's numbers are huge.
It still has Pete in it, but part of it was done after the South Carolina primary:
#California @EmersonPolling/@NXSTMediaGroup Poll (2/29-3/1):
Sanders 38%
Biden 21%
Warren 16%
Bloomberg 11%
Buttigieg 7%
Klobuchar 5%
Steyer 2%
Gabbard 1%
emersonpolling.reportablenews.com
Sanders 38%
Biden 21%
Warren 16%
Bloomberg 11%
Buttigieg 7%
Klobuchar 5%
Steyer 2%
Gabbard 1%
Emerson Polling
California 2020: Sanders Positioned to Capture California on Super Tuesday
emersonpolling.reportablenews.com
Biden and Warren would be viable if this poll were to become the actual results.
But uh...damn Bernie's numbers are huge.
That seems like a huge "run up the margin" in LA and SF Bay Area which would have huge implications for CDs.
Right now she is getting her "activist" on more than her politician role and honestly in a lot of ways AOC is doing political performance art. However, like I have said if they "rob" Bernie I think this wing of the party buckles down and starts campaigns where they can legit win. They don't need many house seats to make everybody miserable. Bernie's Street team working local elections with righteous would make things a lot more hectic.
What are you on about.
Bernie didn't technically win Iowa but everything else seems pretty close to what happened!
New California poll.
It still has Pete in it, but part of it was done after the South Carolina primary:
#California @EmersonPolling/@NXSTMediaGroup Poll (2/29-3/1):
Sanders 38%
Biden 21%
Warren 16%
Bloomberg 11%
Buttigieg 7%
Klobuchar 5%
Steyer 2%
Gabbard 1%
Emerson Polling
California 2020: Sanders Positioned to Capture California on Super Tuesday
Biden and Warren would be viable if this poll were to become the actual results.
But uh...damn Bernie's numbers are huge.
BEST POLLSTER of the primary will be correct again.
No. You said Biden would win Nevada. Bernie won Nevada with a huge margin.
Ya, I think Biden definitely has momentum. And, like, 21% would be a really good result for Biden. If Bloomberg could either reach viability or crater further and give another 2-3 points to Biden that would be good. Obviously, viability is the bare minimum, but if he can hit the mid 20s that would be big for him, I think.
Oh, I read it wrong. I mixed up your pessimistic and optimistic predictions. My bad.
I'm saying getting nearly 40% of the statewide vote would probably mean he is straight up murdering in the Congressional District delegate counts in the big cities.
New California poll.
It still has Pete in it, but part of it was done after the South Carolina primary:
#California @EmersonPolling/@NXSTMediaGroup Poll (2/29-3/1):
Sanders 38%
Biden 21%
Warren 16%
Bloomberg 11%
Buttigieg 7%
Klobuchar 5%
Steyer 2%
Gabbard 1%
Emerson Polling
California 2020: Sanders Positioned to Capture California on Super Tuesday
Biden and Warren would be viable if this poll were to become the actual results.
But uh...damn Bernie's numbers are huge.
I actually think only Bernie and Biden will be viable in california, probably similar numbers as SC but flipped. I think Warren's pitch to make it to the convention and "see what happen's" will turn off voters. I was for Bernie in 2016 in the primary but ended up voting for Clinton as it got closer to the convention and it was clear he wouldn't win without some undemocratic reliance on the party to choose him as the candidate. People don't like voting for losers.
I'm disclaimaring this with SUPER SMALL SAMPLE SIZE DO NOT INFER ANYTHING OTHER THAN CONVERSATION
If you look at the crosstabs in that Emerson poll, it breaks it down by if folks have already voted vs. promising to vote.
Biden and Warren basically meet their overall topline numbers, that is 20.1% of people who have already voted voted for Biden (he's getting 21% in the poll) and 16.6% of people who have already voted voted for her (her topline is 16.1%)
Bernie is doing 4 points worse than his topline among people who have already voted....BUT the big one? Bloomberg. He's getting 10% in the topline...but only 6.5% of the early vote. I really think he's going to be a nonfactor overall.
If you look at the crosstabs in that Emerson poll, it breaks it down by if folks have already voted vs. promising to vote.
Biden and Warren basically meet their overall topline numbers, that is 20.1% of people who have already voted voted for Biden (he's getting 21% in the poll) and 16.6% of people who have already voted voted for her (her topline is 16.1%)
Bernie is doing 4 points worse than his topline among people who have already voted....BUT the big one? Bloomberg. He's getting 10% in the topline...but only 6.5% of the early vote. I really think he's going to be a nonfactor overall.
Warren lost a lot of respect from me in the past few weeks. From the convention thing to the super PAC thing as well as the unity candidate call. Really not sure what's going on in her camp but it has been severely disappointing as have been her results. Feels like a younger Warren would have dropped out by now and endorsed another candidate. It's going to be a sad day when she loses in her own home state.
I want to see hungry "fuck Bloomberg" Warren, not "let's see what happens at the convention!" Warren.
It's worth noting that Bloomberg has NOT bought ads past Super Tuesday. I am hoping that he sees the writing on the wall and thinks that he is just flushing money down the toilet.
Crazy scenario for Warren winning the nomination:
*Bloomberg drops out, Warren starts to rack up delegates with Klob and Buttiegeg out.
*It is now a 3 person race between Bernie, Biden and Warren.
*Bernie suffers a heart attack and is forced to drop out of the race completely, endorses Warren as he steps down and pledges to give all of his delegates to her.
*Convention happens, Bernie + Warren has more delegates than Biden. Bernie Bros throw a hissy fit and demand that the progressive candidate be pushed over the top. Warren is declared the nominee and Obama comes out to endorse her.
I want to see hungry "fuck Bloomberg" Warren, not "let's see what happens at the convention!" Warren.
It's worth noting that Bloomberg has NOT bought ads past Super Tuesday. I am hoping that he sees the writing on the wall and thinks that he is just flushing money down the toilet.
Crazy scenario for Warren winning the nomination:
*Bloomberg drops out, Warren starts to rack up delegates with Klob and Buttiegeg out.
*It is now a 3 person race between Bernie, Biden and Warren.
*Bernie suffers a heart attack and is forced to drop out of the race completely, endorses Warren as he steps down and pledges to give all of his delegates to her.
*Convention happens, Bernie + Warren has more delegates than Biden. Bernie Bros throw a hissy fit and demand that the progressive candidate be pushed over the top. Warren is declared the nominee and Obama comes out to endorse her.
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I'm just hoping if she loses MA that it'll be a wakeup call for Warren
Her convention strategy is moronic, this is quickly becoming a two person race so someone will get a majority or at least very close to it
The moderate lane is quickly consolidating. I hope to God Warren knows what to do. This go to the convention strategy is idiotic and a massive disservice to her staff.
Good lawd at those Cali numbers.
How does Sanders not run away with this whole thing by the time the convention rolls around?
How does Sanders not run away with this whole thing by the time the convention rolls around?
I mean, that phase already happened long in the past. I mean you had people in previous versions of this thread making a case that Warren and Sanders could beat Biden's popular vote through a contested convention stacking on.
The only outcome I see is her trying to secure the white liberal vote delegates and do a last minute drop into endorsement for Sanders which could push him over the top. Pete and Klob dropping out helps her numbers quite a bit in northeastern states.
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