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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 2| Dershowitz says "Quid Pro Quo on the Go?" [See Staff Post]

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Dahbomb

Dahbomb

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Oct 25, 2017
13,666
Brock Reiher said:
Bernie just announced that he's 2-0 in his 50 state run
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And he can do that because Iowa messed up that badly. Like honestly to me, I don't even want to think about Iowa and just belittle its importance.

NH is the first actual contest and it was a close one. Bernie has a lot of work to do to earn the frontrunner status.
 
less

less

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,861
Come November and we'll look back at this primary and its wackiness with amusement because all or most of us Dems are going to be united as fuck to kick Trump out.
 
RastaMentality

RastaMentality

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,147
AOC probably connects well with these Latino union members in the casinos. I hope they send here there like as soon as possible. Then she can do double events in LA as well.
 
Dahbomb

Dahbomb

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AkimboChainz said:
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This is one of the few good things to come out of NH.

Also Bernie making a solid pitch for unity with the other candidates.


My fanfiction scenario:

Bernie does well in Nevada/SC as Amy/Pete start to fade. However, Bloomberg starts to surge in Super Tuesday and starts taking the fight to Sanders. As the race narrows, Bernie starts to lose the race to Bloomberg. We go to convention with Bloomberg having the plurality NOT the majority. Warren/Amy/Pete/Biden still have some delegates to negotiate.

After seeing the heinous shit that Bloomberg has done along with basically buying his way into the convention, all the old timers Amy + Biden + Warren give their delegates to Bernie. It's still not enough for a majority and the tie breaker between the two... is Pete Buttiegeg. Pete asks God for guidance.... and makes the right call of giving his delegates to Bernie and Bernie gains the majority he needs to get the nomination!


YAY UNITY!
 
SpitztheGreat

SpitztheGreat

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May 16, 2019
2,879
GameChanger said:
How come Pete has more delegates if Bernie won Iowa?
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Oh you sweet summer child, you think American democracy is straight forward and that more votes = more delegates. No no, we use this archaic system where votes and delegates are not awarded on a 1:1 basis.

Basically, Bernie wracked up big wins in some areas, but Pete (likely) got narrow wins in more areas, so Pete won more delegates while Bernie got more votes.

Now let me tell you about the Electoral College... ;)
 

Allard

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,937
Frankish said:
Hopefully it's Klobuchar time. She's the best moderate candidate.



Punishing Bernie for his terrible healthcare policy. Good.
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Klobuchar scares me as a potential GE candidate even if for everything else about her I would have thought her strong candidate for GE. Those stories about how she treats her staff were harsh and numerous and came out well before she had any real national political power so they weren't coming out as a swift boat like ad. I seriously fear the kind of campaign in the GE that would come out against her on the GOP side with those stories floating around.
 

Jiggy

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,336
wherever
aspiegamer said:
If IA was a disaster for Biden, this has been a disaster for Sanders.
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...what? There's a massive difference between a tight win and a distant fourth place loss. Biden's Iowa result effectively killed his campaign. Bernie's surged to the top of national polling and this isn't going to knock him off.

SwordsmanofS said:
Instead, he limps across the finish line, with looking a lot better in comparison due to seemingly overperforming. His base won't abandon him, but good luck expanding that base with tonight's performance.
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A lot of his base hasn't even gotten a chance to vote yet. Latinos in particular.
 
adam387

adam387

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Nov 27, 2017
5,215
RastaMentality said:
What the fuck is Culinary doing?

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I mean, this is a thing with a lot of union folks. My husband is union. His union is refusing to endorse anyone who is running on getting rid of their health insurance for a forced M4A system. Full stop. They want no part of that. this is one of the many reasons M4A is a heavy lift.
GameChanger said:
Damn. This sounds like Bernie's performance was really bad tonight. I feel like there a lot more appealing candidate this time though. Maybe that's why he underperformed. How's the voter turnout this time?
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Voter turnout seems to be up from 2016, maybe approaching 2008 but we'll see when the final numbers come out. The issue is, outside winning which is of course preferable to losing, Bernie only held on to about 60% of his 2016 support in the state. He didn't win first time primary voters. Youth turnout is not up, based on exit polling. This is a state he should have run away with...and he has a delegate tie with the ex-mayor of Indiana's 4th largest city. And, the only reason he won at all, was because the moderate vote fractured between Pete and Amy. if Amy wasn't a factor, I don't think Bernie wins tonight.

The bigger issue is Bernie is the only candidate, other than Biden, to basically not outrun his polling.

Take Iowa, using the RCP average:

Sanders---23%
Pete--------16.8%
Amy----------9.0%

The final results:

Sanders: 24.7%
Pete: 21.3%
Amy 12.7%

Take NH polling average:

Sanders: 28.7%
Pete: 21.3%
Amy: 11.7%

The current results:

Sanders: 25.88%
Pete: 24.10%
Amy: 19.91%

Bernie isn't closing strong, and he's not winning over undecided. Late breaking people are going to literally anyone not him, and IDK what you do to fix that. basically, Bernie has a very, very strong base of support. But that's about it. He's not expanding above that YET. it could change. I hope it does if the alternative is Bloomberg....but there is nothing about this result tonight that would make me happy for my coalition if I was him.
 
GameChanger

GameChanger

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,935
SpitztheGreat said:
Oh you sweet summer child, you think American democracy is straight forward and that more votes = more delegates. No no, we use this archaic system where votes and delegates are not awarded on a 1:1 basis.

Basically, Bernie wracked up big wins in some areas, but Pete (likely) got narrow wins in more areas, so Pete won more delegates while Bernie got more votes.

Now let me tell you about the Electoral College... ;)
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I already know about the electoral college. Unfortunately I got reminded about it in 2016 after I forgot that I learned it in highschool.
 
TheFatOne

TheFatOne

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Oct 27, 2017
4,973
MetalGearZed said:
I know. I'm just bummed about Warren. Bernie is my fallback and my suspicion(now a fear) about him not being able to substantially grow his coalition is rearing its head again.
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Same here comrade, but we have to remain optimistic in these dark times. Sanders is currently in the drivers seat and who knows what happens in NV and SC.
 
MrCheezball

MrCheezball

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Aug 3, 2018
1,376
CNN: Make no mistake, Bernie is the front runner for the Dems! Its so impressive that a 200 year old socialist Jewish socialist who nearly just died is leading the way!
 
GameChanger

GameChanger

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,935
adam387 said:
I mean, this is a thing with a lot of union folks. My husband is union. His union is refusing to endorse anyone who is running on getting rid of their health insurance for a forced M4A system. Full stop. They want no part of that. this is one of the many reasons M4A is a heavy lift.

Voter turnout seems to be up from 2016, maybe approaching 2008 but we'll see when the final numbers come out. The issue is, outside winning which is of course preferable to losing, Bernie only held on to about 60% of his 2016 support in the state. He didn't win first time primary voters. Youth turnout is not up, based on exit polling. This is a state he should have run away with...and he has a delegate tie with the ex-mayor of Indiana's 4th largest city. And, the only reason he won at all, was because the moderate vote fractured between Pete and Amy. if Amy wasn't a factor, I don't think Bernie wins tonight.

The bigger issue is Bernie is the only candidate, other than Biden, to basically not outrun his polling.

Take Iowa, using the RCP average:

Sanders---23%
Pete--------16.8%
Amy----------9.0%

The final results:

Sanders: 24.7%
Pete: 21.3%
Amy 12.7%

Take NH polling average:

Sanders: 28.7%
Pete: 21.3%
Amy: 11.7%

The current results:

Sanders: 25.88%
Pete: 24.10%
Amy: 19.91%

Bernie isn't closing strong, and he's not winning over undecided. Late breaking people are going to literally anyone not him, and IDK what you do to fix that. basically, Bernie has a very, very strong base of support. But that's about it. He's not expanding above that YET. it could change. I hope it does if the alternative is Bloomberg....but there is nothing about this result tonight that would make me happy for my coalition if I was him.
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If the moderate vote is being fractured between Pete and Amy, then is it safe to assume that the progressive vote is being split between Bernie and Warren.
 
Soul Skater

Soul Skater

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Oct 25, 2017
10,201
a win is a win even if people think the margin isn't good enough, most of where Bernie has tried to improve is by diversifying his voter base. It seems like he may have done it, while still beating others whose voters are almost exclusively white.

We'll see, NV and then SC with Biden down and no Bloomberg he could win both

I think the concerns about him not gaining a base are valid but let's see if that's true when it comes to states where the electorate is less white, as that is the base he's tried to expand the most.
 
Dahbomb

Dahbomb

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If Bernie had already collaborated with Biden/Warren beforehand to unite if one or more were going to go down early... then he REALLY got fucked over by BOTH of them getting torpedo'd.
 
Dahbomb

Dahbomb

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danm999 said:
The NV Debate is going to be a bloodbath between everyone establishing themselves as the "not Bernie" candidate
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That's what the NH debate was about as well as coming out for Buttiegeg.

NV debate is going to be about discrediting Bloomberg and calling out on his rascist policies. Unless Bloomberg buys off the moderators or something.
 
YamchasRevenge

YamchasRevenge

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Oct 25, 2017
4,819
Bernie's base has changed since 2016. His support is far more diverse, and he is doing far better with Hispanics especially. Unfortunately, he's clearly doing worse with rural whites than 2016. Luckily for him, Nevada is a much more favorable state.
 
maabus1999

maabus1999

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Oct 26, 2017
9,099
Turnout story also shows how much a difference there is in Caucus' vs Primaries. Just end the Caucus system period.
 
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