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US PoliEra 2019 |OT8| WHITE HOUSE ADMITS TO QUID PRO QUO WITH UKRAINE
- Thread starter TheHunter
- Start date
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This is my theory.
The chance of about 15-20 GOP Senators voting to convict is around 50% right now. BUT...
....aside from maaaybe Romney, no GOP Senator wants to be seen as supporting the DEM House impeachment push. They'll get roasted by their base and risk a flurry of primary challengers right when the filing deadline is upon them. BUT...
... the GOP Senators are quietly sitting on the sidelines waiting to see how much damaging info and hard facts the Democrats are able to compile for articles of impeachment. If the impeachment articles are kind of scattershot, nebulous, or unfocused then yeah you probably won't get a single GOP voting to convict. But if the impeachment articles are laser focused with undisputed facts, then it puts GOP Senators in a tough spot. If the GOP Senators unanimously vote to acquit Trump of abuse of power for colluding with a foreign power to interfere with a Presidential election, then the GOP will be solely responsible for ushering in a new age where foreign actors will be welcomed with a red carpet to interfere with our elections.
It's a Trap Card. if the Democrats play it right. The GOP will have only two options. Either throw Trump out of office or forever own foreign interference in our elections. And it's not obvious which option to pick.. Acquitting Trump may seem like the safer option in the near-term, but these Senators have 6 year terms and I'm sure they're not thrilled about the prospect of having Russian, Chinese, or North Korean hackers going through all their emails and digging through their digital history every election cycle, especially those with Presidential ambitions.
So if the impeachment articles are laser focused on the Ukraine scandal and foreign interference with our US elections, then I put the odds at 50/50 on Trump getting convicted even if GOP Senators are dead silent now. A more comprehensive set of impeachment articles might be more satisfying and a better redline for history, but it would dramatically reduce the chances of conviction in the Senate since it would make it easy for GOP Senators to call the whole thing a "witch hunt" because they'll probably latch on to one of the weaker impeachment articles.
LOL.
I was having a pretty crummy night, but a good laugh before bed is just what I needed, thanks.
And this is why the country will be destroyed. Crimes be damned, it's all just political suicide cause the cult leader has easy access to his cultists via social media, the thing the Senate was supposed to protect against in the outdated constitution.
Dems need to seriously consider copying the dirty tactics Republican use. Cutting polling places in rural areas should be on the agenda in every blue state. The only way we survive is if our side learns to fight fire with fire.
Hell fricking no. This is horrific. We are not the party of restricting voting. Disenfranchisement is wrong because it is wrong, not because it doesn't help us.
We fight by being better than them. We win by making a better argument. The shit the GOP pulls is morally reprehensible. I'd never be part of a party who embraces that kinda bullshit.
The shit the GOP pulls is effective. When my opponent is fascist, I'd rather cheat and win then play fair and lose. There is no higher moral than defeating these people.
Why not try to make the election a public holiday?
Fuck, if you want to do something more radical, how about pushing for a hard or soft mandatory voting?
All those things are better than voter suppression.
Also, I think America needs to take a long hard look at the way its government is set up and where the incentives are, because this shit is fucking broken, and it needs to be fixed. But that's a longer term project, though we can start by at least on the left electing people who don't treat the constitution like scripture and the supreme court like the voice of the high priest.
I mean you should be trying to reduce the disproportionate voting power of rural places though. I don't know if that counts as disenfranchisement.
Abolish the Senate.
Abolish the Senate.
Besides the fact that this is an ethically terrible idea, it would backfire horribly from a strategic standpoint as well.
A "win at all costs" strategy very easily leads to a "only winning matters" mentality, and from there it's all down hill.
See: Republicans
From the Republican perspective it's all been uphill. They're getting everything they always wanted.
I know this upcoming election feels like the most important thing to ever happen, but life and country goes on for way longer than the next election. It's important that 40 years from now, we can point back to Trump times and say we were on the right side of the history.
Republican tactics are short-sighted. Anger, lies, chaos and "only winning matter" -tactics are destructive behaviours that produce nothing long-lasting. Time and demographical changes are on side of Democrats. Don't ruin it now by trying to become Republicans.
As a Muslim-American I don't have the luxury of dismissing the immediate future for a hypothetical moral victory in the distant future.
Millions of people who voted for Trump in 2016 were holding their nose while they did it. That will not be the case in 2020.
Trump Favorability Up, but Trails Other Presidents-Elect
Donald Trump's favorability rating has improved from 34% to 42% after his election win and is his best since 2011.news.gallup.com
Roughly 70% of Republicans viewed Trump favorably before the 2016 election. That number is around 90% now. I fully expect Trump to surpass his raw vote total from 2016 quite easily regardless of who the Dems nominate. If the Dem candidate doesn't inspire Obama 08 level turnout, we're all fucked.
Presidential Approval Ratings -- Donald Trump
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
This is very sound analysis thanks
Re: Chapo Trap House
Always a good idea to reflect on why a progressive community would consist overwhelmingly of 20 year old straight white dudes.
Always a good idea to reflect on why a progressive community would consist overwhelmingly of 20 year old straight white dudes.
What is the demographic makeup of ResetERA? I have to imagine it's pretty similar.
Blue states are already blue. We don't need to rig anything to win them and there is nothing gained by trying to disenfranchise red voters in a blue state.
Instead we need to be working harder on those Purple States and the flipflop states. Hillary won the Popular vote by millions and lost the Electoral college by roughly 50-60k votes total. Hillary had 30+ years of being painted as the boogeyman and was not popular at all in the Midwest of the United States which if you look at the 2012 versus 2016 map you can see how massively the Midwest shifted from Democrat to Republican.
So trying to be like Republicans and shit on Red Voters in Blue states would accomplish nothing on the national level.
Instead we need to be working harder on those Purple States and the flipflop states. Hillary won the Popular vote by millions and lost the Electoral college by roughly 50-60k votes total. Hillary had 30+ years of being painted as the boogeyman and was not popular at all in the Midwest of the United States which if you look at the 2012 versus 2016 map you can see how massively the Midwest shifted from Democrat to Republican.
So trying to be like Republicans and shit on Red Voters in Blue states would accomplish nothing on the national level.
I'm not saying give up fighting. What I'm saying is, be careful of how you do it. Precedence you set today might accidentally become rule of future. It's hard to get back the principles you break.
Being careful hasn't worked at all. It might work in a decent country, but this is America.
I don't think that it does, and I 100% support abolishing the senate. I took exception to the idea of cutting polling places in rural areas.
I seriously doubt you can get the senate abolished through parliamentarian ways though, since I doubt many senators will vote to abolish their job.
I am not entirely sure what you are suggesting, but I guess I do have the luxury of "waiting things out". So I can't really be the judge.
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There were a good 6-8 headlines yesterday that would have been blockbusters on their own that were absolutely freaking buried by other even more horrible stuff, so uh, I have no idea wtf to expect today. Maybe everyone will settle down and start their weekends early. It's been a rough few weeks, after all.
But seriously, I don't know how you're possibly supposed to top the fucking president asking another country on live TV to interfere with our elections. He said it so casually I don't think it received the appropriate public reaction something that crazy deserves.
But seriously, I don't know how you're possibly supposed to top the fucking president asking another country on live TV to interfere with our elections. He said it so casually I don't think it received the appropriate public reaction something that crazy deserves.
This seems like an overreaction to one wave of elections lol.
We lose the moral high ground with our own voters, provides more ammunition for the press and GOP against the party, and destabilises the country further into a failed state. This is only good if you want the system to crumble and expect to be at the top once the dust settles.
As well as providing cover for tank ies.
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Wow, Kamala raised more money than I thought she did. She's only a few million off from Biden. Though that's more of indictment on Biden's poor fundraising and the rest of the frontrunners overall. Not really a sign of strength that Warren is literally waiting for everyone else to post their numbers first.
It's not just about some nebulous moral victory in some undefinable future. You're advocating for what would ultimately be a race to the bottom against a party that started shoveling 50 years ago.
The ones who held their noses aren't his base.Millions of people who voted for Trump in 2016 were holding their nose while they did it. That will not be the case in 2020.
Trump Favorability Up, but Trails Other Presidents-Elect
Donald Trump's favorability rating has improved from 34% to 42% after his election win and is his best since 2011.
Roughly 70% of Republicans viewed Trump favorably before the 2016 election. That number is around 90% now. I fully expect Trump to surpass his raw vote total from 2016 quite easily regardless of who the Dems nominate. If the Dem candidate doesn't inspire Obama 08 level turnout, we're all fucked.
Presidential Approval Ratings -- Donald Trump
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
You're right it won't be the case in 2020, because a lot of those same people won't give him a second chance.
I thought Biden jumped-the-gun with his numbers? Wasn't he going to reveal on the last possible day, then gave a number at a rally? In which case, Warren probably set a day, and then got surprised by Biden's announcement.
Biden announced his numbers to a bunch or high dollar donors basically off the cuff.
His staff were surprised and wouldn't confirm at first lol.
His staff were surprised and wouldn't confirm at first lol.
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Doing the opposite by bringing more people into the process would be much more effective, without being a dirty tactic, and actually leaning more into the spirit of the US - add more polling places everywhere, extend/allow early/mail-in voting everywhere, consider a voting public holiday, give DC and US territories Statehood, etc.
I think, * potentially something that might come out of this is. Trump did what he's doing now in 2016-17. Not against Democrats, bit against sitting members of the house/Senate. Particularly Republicans. And we find out, publically that Graham had black mail invented about him and was threatened. I think this would get all the votes we need to impeach.
And I think it is likely, and likely it will come out
If dirt is dug up on Biden is Trump vindicated? Obviously not in our eyes, but to independents and his base no doubt about it. Scary thought for sure.
Considering Zelensky just caved to Putin after this whole mess I wonder what this will dig up
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