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Putin orders troops to invade eastern Ukraine
- Thread starter Forerunner
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France has both sumarine based and aircraft delivered missiles.
UK has approximately 128 warheads deployed, around 60-70 in reserve and about another 80 planned. They're all delivered by submarine, one of which is always on patrol; not sure how many each holds but they're all multi-warhead so would probably, combined with the French warheads, guarentee MAD.
No european power has land-based ICBMs.
It depends on the orders given to submarine commanders. If the UK is wiped out pre-emptively, nuke commanders have sealed instructions from the PM advising them what to do. Options could include full retaliation, no retaliation, report to allied bases in surviving countries, etc. Once sealed they remain so, and as far as I am aware none have ever leaked when the PM changes and the old ones are destroyed.
It's entirely possible that a PM could decide that, if the UK and other nations are destroyed, no retaliation is to occur at all (since what is the point of even more death). But since the order is sealed, the threat of MAD is still there. For all we know, Johnson's instructions are "fire the missiles at Greenland and create craters in the shape of a 1000km penis."
I mean as I am no nuclear or missile expert so this is just my assumption but considering how close to EU big major Russian cities are I would assume you could have MAD against Russia in Europe even without advanced delivery mechanisms (like ICBM).
While the British sanctions are pretty shit, they've been pretty vocal about support for Ukraine, including sending a shit load of anti-tank and other weapons. They've just started sending through another lot apparently as well. At the time of the initial shipment, the Germans got antsy and were debating whether to even allow the flights through their airspace.
So yeah, neither has been great overall, but each has done something worthwhile.
I'm not sure either France or Britain has warheads large enough to cause massively widespread fallout from hitting nearby targets. They tend to be smaller and more strategic, not Tsar Bomba style where half the continent is glassed.
But UK and France has sub based missiles that can reach basically anywhere they need to. French air-based missles less so I would guess.
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Its questionable. With the INF treaty dead (the killing of which always adantaged Russia more than america) Russia has the ability to knock out European nuclear infrastructure within a few minutes.
Trident is relatively effective at keeping some kind of retaliation up our sleeve, but the main source of MAD was always the American nuclear arsenal.
SLBMs are enough usually due to their quick time of flight to target so that is probably the deterrence you need (as long as that one sub isn't found).
Air delivered warheads are no guarantee, even by long range cruise missile so while they are part of the "trinity", they are the least reliable to get past defenses.
While you don't need the range of an ICBM, it is the delivery angle of the warheads that make it near impossible to defend against post-launch that make them scary. You have to normally take them out early in flight to stop them.
I really hope that the European Union gets their ass up in terms of self defense and deterrence, especially with a potential Trump/Republican party at the top again, these idiots can't be trusted with anything unfortunately.
On Paper.
I hope we don't find out either way, but it is questionable if the US even has the political or societal will to wage a major war. Even when being in a defensive war. I believe that the fracture and hatred between the different groups of society and the political landscape would hamper an efficient response and would probably even have issues with some groups actively sabotaging the war effort just because they don't like the people in power.
When you look at how many boomers get mad about a brief Twitter ban, or how angry people here on Era get about GPU/games console shortages, I sincerely believe there would be public will behind defending Taiwan once the inpact on semiconductor production took the mildest of tolls.
Speaking of Twitter bans, seems Russian troll farms are mass reporting specific individual Ukranian twitter accounts to get them suspended, mainly activists and such.
EDIT: Seems to be expanding now to anyone posting info on the Russians.
EDIT: Seems to be expanding now to anyone posting info on the Russians.
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It also looks like Kyiv is experiencing some sort of blackout https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJ6AzlYCysY
Edit: Disregard the message. It's only low quality cameras.
Edit: Disregard the message. It's only low quality cameras.
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I see street lights, traffic lights, electronic billboards all on.
Yeah never mind, it seems like this channel from the Chinese TV uses bad cameras compared to the broadcasts I saw in the past few days.
Good summary on hitting back against Russian prop:
www.vice.com
The Internet Is Debunking Russian War Propaganda in Real Time
It’s become increasingly difficult for Russia to publish believable propaganda.
www.vice.com
You know, I wonder if Russia was counting on this much Intel support from NATO or not; currently three ISR aircraft over Ukraine and one AWACS in Poland. It is going to be very hard for Russia to do any surprise or flanking moves in the opening advances (though I bet they are expecting their bombardment campaign to clear most obstacles...we'll see how much Ukraine has prepared for that phase).
Very obviously not.
As the post above this points out, the Kremlin propaganda machine has also been incredibly lazy, almost hastily pasted together. It does make one wonder if there was never an original intention to invade, but gains now must be secured after their actions backfired in the display of western unity.
Either way, planned from the beginning or not, it's very clear Russia tried every move in the book to cause rifts in the alliance, and probably didn't expect airspace to be opened to such missions.
France has SLBMs. Britain too.
BTW it seems like the Ukraine populace is arming itself on-mass.
I think he had a different type of relationship with Kim Jong Un, or saw him differently. With Putin you get the sense of some kind of deeper relationship, such as what you mention below. So maybe with Kim he tried to normalize the concept of "strong man" style negotiations, but it was not the same kind of thing as with Putin.
There has been a rise in currents of "white grievance" sentiments for some time now around the world. While the basis of these may differ from region to region (in the US it is a fear of losing a white majority, while in Europe it may be immigrant/refugee related, or just plain xenophobia basically), the various figures in play (politicians like Trump, Putin, or propaganda channels like Fox) have found that a good way to direct the energy of their bases is to weave together and fortify the narrative of white solidarity across their contemporaries. Because it is such an easy sentiment to exploit and can become so rooted in people's minds/hearts.
So it is less about "Trump liking Putin because they are both white", or Fox choosing Russian over Ukraine, but about how those actors are together perpetuating the narrative of white solidarity among their bases as a tool for control.
User warned: thread derail
Re: Taiwan:
I think it's important to note that the US isn't really enthusiastic about China. Even without racist bias, I think a significant portion of the left still understand they are our primary adversary this century at the global stage.
I don't think it would be too far fetched to say the US could sell the war to the populace. Especially since in my lifetime (mid 30s), Taiwan has always seemed like the one thing we would go to war over.
www.pewresearch.org
I think it's important to note that the US isn't really enthusiastic about China. Even without racist bias, I think a significant portion of the left still understand they are our primary adversary this century at the global stage.
I don't think it would be too far fetched to say the US could sell the war to the populace. Especially since in my lifetime (mid 30s), Taiwan has always seemed like the one thing we would go to war over.
Most Americans Support Tough Stance Toward China on Human Rights, Economic Issues
Fewer adults have confidence in Joe Biden to handle the U.S.-China relationship than other foreign policy issues.
www.pewresearch.org
Four submarines (no idea if one is always on patrol or not) and around 40-45 aircrafts, no idea if it's sufficient to complete a MAD scenario against Russia or not :
Force de dissuasion - Wikipedia
Strategic Air Forces Command - Wikipedia
Trust me, as an American myself, I don't fucking get it either.
Personally, I think it's important to keep tabs on the things they spew to know the direction the right continues to move in this country. The Tuckers and Trumps of this world both repeat and guide the views of tens of millions of people.
That said, since they aren't policy makers currently, what they say doesn't belong in this thread.
Ya I noticed some pretty legit accounts from Ukrainian people that were giving updates get banned. Not sure if this is some automated system being abused by Russians or if there is something more sinister going on…
He still has an outsized influence on the right wing population and politicians. He could easily influence political and policy positions of his loyal followers.
As part of any Kyiv advance, there are forces that look prepared to go through the Chernobyl exclusion zone; Ukraine has actually done exercises over such a battlefield so an engagement there is possible. Just another crazy turn to this madness.
Putin has branded himself and Russia as the last bastion of "traditional values", aka white male patriarchy along with religion via the Orthodox Church.
That had a lot of appeal to the American right. With the threat of communism gone, they actually have more in common, and they've been meeting for some time.
I'm ignorant of the subject but if a Battle of Chernobyl were to break out, could Russia bomb the reactor sarcophagus and release radiation into the air?
And release a radioactive cloud over parts of Russia? Doubtful. An accident could happen, but I highly doubt they'd do anything like that on purpose. They'd just as likely hurt themselves as they would Ukraine.
Extremely unlikely because it would affect Russia proper. They may only use precision munitions in that area vs indiscriminate artillery just because of that (or just go straight ground battle).
that is something that would not be good for russia
jet stream would push radiation to russia and they'd be the worst impacted by it. it's going to be something they avoid at all cost.
It's becoming increasingly clear to me now that this was never a straight up planned invasion, but always more a "let's move troops there and stir shit up, see what happens" kind of situation that has now escalated since they didn't get the desired results and now can't back off that easily anymore...
I mean, if he was gonna go for full scale invasion, he would have done so by now. Makes you think that nobody, Russia included, really knows where this is all heading now...
I mean, if he was gonna go for full scale invasion, he would have done so by now. Makes you think that nobody, Russia included, really knows where this is all heading now...
This has been the feeling I've had for days now. With how haphazard and flimsy their false flag attempts have been, to how long they've kept deployed troops out on the border, this whole thing feels like Putin expected Ukraine to fold when they had soldiers on their doorstep, and for the EU and the rest of the West to do nothing about it.
Feels that way, I think Putin Didn't anticipate the unity/resolve of the west.
Which is strange too...given the fact that he is usually a very calculating player that rarely makes mistakes that big. Maybe he thought his efforts to sow distrust and division would have been more successful than they were in the end... Or perhaps he just got tired of playing the waiting game, who knows....
I thought about this possibility and the more nothing major happens the more likely it is. But on the other hand that would mean Putin truly overshoot his bluff way beyond any reasonable way to get out of it. And he might go for a large invasion anyway just to not look like he lost.
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