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PlayStation Studios |OT13| The One With the Price and Release Date. Maybe ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- Thread starter JuanLatino
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That makes sense, the Xbox event that was supposed to reveal Series S is supposed to be next week so I can see Sony doing it after that as that event most likely has Series X price in it.
I tried to do some calculations with retail price of $349/$449
Long story short :
Given Sony's operating profit forecast, it is not impossible
There is a possibility, if Sony is really aggressive
Calculations show that the loss of both PS5/PS5DE with $349/$449 price would give an operating profit forecast not totally different from $399/$449
But don't expect $349 Digital though, it was just some calculations to see that it's not impossible
4.5M PS5 during Q3 and 3.1M PS5 during Q4, just like PS4
Q3 (Oct-Dec) : 4.5M PS5 sold
--> $487/$515 cost for Sony with a retail price of $349/$449
So it would be a $66 net loss for each PS5 sold and $138 loss for each PS5 DE
We will assume that 80% of PS5 sold are Standard and 20% are PS5 DE (and then 60%/40% for the high range)
80%/20% : (3.6m PS5 x $66) + (0.9m PS5 DE x $138) = $238M + $124M = 362M loss
60%/40% : (2.7m PS5 x $66) + (1.8m PS5 DE x $138) = $178M + 248M = 426M loss
$362M-$426M = ¥38.7-45.6bn loss
Without PS5 launch, I would have forecasted ¥70-75bn Profits during Q3
¥70bn Profits minus ¥38.7-45.6bn loss from PS5 would mean ¥24.4-31.1bn Profits (average: ¥27.8bn)
¥75bn Profits minus ¥38.7-45.6bn loss from PS5 would mean ¥29.4-36.3bn Profits (average: ¥32.9bn)
The average of these two results (¥27.8bn and ¥32.9bn) = ¥30.3bn
In the table, I originally put ¥29bn for Q3 so it is in the range of both estimates and it's pretty close to the average (¥30.3bn)
Q4 (Jan-Mar) : 3.1M PS5 sold
--> $487/$515 cost for Sony with a retail price of $349/$449
So it would be a $66 net loss for each PS5 sold and $138 loss for each PS5 DE
We will assume that 80% of PS5 sold are Standard and 20% are PS5 DE (and then 60%/40% for the high range)
80%/20% : (2.5m PS5 x $66) + (0.9m PS5 DE x $138) = $165M + $83M = $248M loss
60%/40% : (1.9m PS5 x $66) + (1.2m PS5 DE x $138) = $125M + 166M = $291M loss
$248M-$291M = ¥26.5-31.1bn loss
Without PS5 launch, I would have forecasted ¥35-45bn Profits during Q4
¥35bn Profits minus ¥26.5-31.1bn loss from PS5 would mean ¥3.9-8.5bn (average: ¥6.2bn)
¥45bn Profits minus ¥26.5-31.1bn loss from PS5 would mean ¥13.9-18.5bn (average: ¥16.2bn)
The average of these two results (¥6.2bn and ¥16.2bn) = ¥11.2bn
In the table, I originally put ¥13bn Profits for Q4 so it is in the range if Profits would have reached ¥45bn Profits without PS5 loss and it's pretty close to the average result (¥11.2bn)
Long story short :
Given Sony's operating profit forecast, it is not impossible
There is a possibility, if Sony is really aggressive
Calculations show that the loss of both PS5/PS5DE with $349/$449 price would give an operating profit forecast not totally different from $399/$449
But don't expect $349 Digital though, it was just some calculations to see that it's not impossible
4.5M PS5 during Q3 and 3.1M PS5 during Q4, just like PS4
Q3 (Oct-Dec) : 4.5M PS5 sold
--> $487/$515 cost for Sony with a retail price of $349/$449
So it would be a $66 net loss for each PS5 sold and $138 loss for each PS5 DE
We will assume that 80% of PS5 sold are Standard and 20% are PS5 DE (and then 60%/40% for the high range)
80%/20% : (3.6m PS5 x $66) + (0.9m PS5 DE x $138) = $238M + $124M = 362M loss
60%/40% : (2.7m PS5 x $66) + (1.8m PS5 DE x $138) = $178M + 248M = 426M loss
$362M-$426M = ¥38.7-45.6bn loss
Without PS5 launch, I would have forecasted ¥70-75bn Profits during Q3
¥70bn Profits minus ¥38.7-45.6bn loss from PS5 would mean ¥24.4-31.1bn Profits (average: ¥27.8bn)
¥75bn Profits minus ¥38.7-45.6bn loss from PS5 would mean ¥29.4-36.3bn Profits (average: ¥32.9bn)
The average of these two results (¥27.8bn and ¥32.9bn) = ¥30.3bn
In the table, I originally put ¥29bn for Q3 so it is in the range of both estimates and it's pretty close to the average (¥30.3bn)
Q4 (Jan-Mar) : 3.1M PS5 sold
--> $487/$515 cost for Sony with a retail price of $349/$449
So it would be a $66 net loss for each PS5 sold and $138 loss for each PS5 DE
We will assume that 80% of PS5 sold are Standard and 20% are PS5 DE (and then 60%/40% for the high range)
80%/20% : (2.5m PS5 x $66) + (0.9m PS5 DE x $138) = $165M + $83M = $248M loss
60%/40% : (1.9m PS5 x $66) + (1.2m PS5 DE x $138) = $125M + 166M = $291M loss
$248M-$291M = ¥26.5-31.1bn loss
Without PS5 launch, I would have forecasted ¥35-45bn Profits during Q4
¥35bn Profits minus ¥26.5-31.1bn loss from PS5 would mean ¥3.9-8.5bn (average: ¥6.2bn)
¥45bn Profits minus ¥26.5-31.1bn loss from PS5 would mean ¥13.9-18.5bn (average: ¥16.2bn)
The average of these two results (¥6.2bn and ¥16.2bn) = ¥11.2bn
In the table, I originally put ¥13bn Profits for Q4 so it is in the range if Profits would have reached ¥45bn Profits without PS5 loss and it's pretty close to the average result (¥11.2bn)
There's no way a GAME account would just make this up and I think if they did there'd be an apology tweet already not just the tweet deleted. I believe this, mainly because an event later this week lines up with expectations and other rumours. Sony might even push the announcement one day forward to take the spotlight off xbox.Apparently GameUK tweeted this out
Guys, I've decided to take up the mantle of resident Sony insider and can confirm that the PS5 launches somewhere between now and December 31st, 2029.
I will leak the price exactly 1 second after Sony announces it. Stay tuned!
👀
I will leak the price exactly 1 second after Sony announces it. Stay tuned!
👀
Some people don't want to listen; for them it's all about price and value. The gap in power between both systems is big enough to make it the better deal even at 400€.
I still believe they planned to release a 399 console.
PS4 399
PS4pro 399
... i don't think they now designed a console for 499.
I can also see that happen if sony sees the 499 XoneX as a huge succes against the ps4pro, and thought "We were wrong with the 399 price tag, people want the power of 499"
You've just jumped to the top of the most reliable insider list.
Thanks for the great analysis again, it does seem like those prices are possible. Also in your estimations did you account for the release of more first party games? With Demon's Souls getting rated and R&C being launch window, possibly this FY, it means that'd be a chunk of extra profit for Sony that might not be accounted for.I tried to do some calculations with retail price of $349/$449
Long story short :
Given Sony's operating profit forecast, it is not impossible
There is a possibility, if Sony is really aggressive
Calculations show that the loss of both PS5/PS5DE with $349/$449 price would give an operating profit forecast not totally different from $399/$449
But don't expect $349 Digital though, it was just some calculations to see that it's not impossible
4.5M PS5 during Q3 and 3.1M PS5 during Q4, just like PS4
Q3 (Oct-Dec) : 4.5M PS5 sold
--> $487/$515 cost for Sony with a retail price of $349/$449
So it would be a $66 net loss for each PS5 sold and $138 loss for each PS5 DE
We will assume that 80% of PS5 sold are Standard and 20% are PS5 DE (and then 60%/40% for the high range)
80%/20% : (3.6m PS5 x $66) + (0.9m PS5 DE x $138) = $238M + $124M = 362M loss
60%/40% : (2.7m PS5 x $66) + (1.8m PS5 DE x $138) = $178M + 248M = 426M loss
$362M-$426M = ¥38.7-45.6bn loss
Without PS5 launch, I would have forecasted ¥70-75bn Profits during Q3
¥70bn Profits minus ¥38.7-45.6bn loss from PS5 would mean ¥24.4-31.1bn Profits (average: ¥27.8bn)
¥75bn Profits minus ¥38.7-45.6bn loss from PS5 would mean ¥29.4-36.3bn Profits (average: ¥32.9bn)
The average of these two results (¥27.8bn and ¥32.9bn) = ¥30.3bn
In the table, I originally put ¥29bn for Q3 so it is in the range of both estimates and it's pretty close to the average (¥30.3bn)
Q4 (Jan-Mar) : 3.1M PS5 sold
--> $487/$515 cost for Sony with a retail price of $349/$449
So it would be a $66 net loss for each PS5 sold and $138 loss for each PS5 DE
We will assume that 80% of PS5 sold are Standard and 20% are PS5 DE (and then 60%/40% for the high range)
80%/20% : (2.5m PS5 x $66) + (0.9m PS5 DE x $138) = $165M + $83M = $248M loss
60%/40% : (1.9m PS5 x $66) + (1.2m PS5 DE x $138) = $125M + 166M = $291M loss
$248M-$291M = ¥26.5-31.1bn loss
Without PS5 launch, I would have forecasted ¥35-45bn Profits during Q4
¥35bn Profits minus ¥26.5-31.1bn loss from PS5 would mean ¥3.9-8.5bn (average: ¥6.2bn)
¥45bn Profits minus ¥26.5-31.1bn loss from PS5 would mean ¥13.9-18.5bn (average: ¥16.2bn)
The average of these two results (¥6.2bn and ¥16.2bn) = ¥11.2bn
In the table, I originally put ¥13bn Profits for Q4 so it is in the range if Profits would have reached ¥45bn Profits without PS5 loss and it's pretty close to the average result (¥11.2bn)
Also more PS5 sales over your estimates would mean more loss for Sony but also more profit on the sales of first party titles and accessories, possibly completely offset. It really all depends on where that BOM actually is at.
As an insider, have you heard some things about Sony acquisitions ? ^^
Bluepoint maybe ? Ahah
Thanks !
I'm a bit late to the party. Do we expect Sony to also announce price today or this week? They are now forced to do it, right?
I was expecting it to be next week honestly. Maybe, the announcement of the announcement this week. But now I don't know.
Unfortunately nope but I think BluePoint, Housemarque and EmberLab could be the next ones.
Remember when everyone thought Sony "HAD" to respond to the Series X reveal at The Game Awards and then they sat there silently for 6 months? Yeah...
There were some rumours and with all the positive buzz about series S I 100% expect Sony to be very quick in announcing something big, probably the event where they will reveal the price.
Very soon as this week? or WB Montreal soon (within a year since now)?
$399 & $449 would be the perfect counterpoint and a very balanced launch comparision
XseX is a little more powerful, but not as fast as PS5 (Value is Sony here, particulary with their launch year lineup)
XseS is significantly weaker than PS5/XseX but at a great entry point (Value MS with GP included)
PS5DE still the best entry point for true next-gen (Value is still solid at $400, just not as "no-brainer")
I expect $399 & $499 though and both will be sold out.
XseX is a little more powerful, but not as fast as PS5 (Value is Sony here, particulary with their launch year lineup)
XseS is significantly weaker than PS5/XseX but at a great entry point (Value MS with GP included)
PS5DE still the best entry point for true next-gen (Value is still solid at $400, just not as "no-brainer")
I expect $399 & $499 though and both will be sold out.
Because it wasn't the plan, and/or they were concerned MS might decide to eat the $$ loss and price the Series X at $399? (Which according to WC they won't)?
Ape Escape, Mega Man Legends, and Jumping Flash! are the only remakes that matter!
This week or next week imo.
I wish I'd know ...
I only took into account Miles for Q3 and a mid-profile first party games for Q4 (DS or Ratchet)
Don't want to disrespect them but they are not Spider-Man/GOW/Uncharted/Horizon/TLOU, I mean these games heavily inflated Profits during the quarter they released, I don't think DS/Ratchet would have the same effect than those
And my estimate of units sold is already high, this is what PS4 did and PS4 at $399 was a beast
I am not sure PS5 will do better than this (7.6M in 2 quarters) but let's hope
But you are right, if they sell more PS5 than my forecast, there will be more games/accessories sold too
And Sony will adjust up their operating profit forecast in their next financial result ;)
Thanks for the response ;)
I'm not expecting anything this week because they're focusing on VR. MAYBE they announce a 2nd Future of Gaming for next week.
With all due respect, SCREW THE PRICE :D lol.
Any news on if the price announcement is accompanied by upcoming system details, store features, PSN update reel?
Do you really think 299€ is cheap? With those specs? How much did you expect it to cost? Any of the other next-gen systems is twice as powerful (or more) and will cost 500€ at most. A single euro over 300€, it would have looked close to pointless.
I guess PS4 Pro and Xbox One X have altered perceptions on price (those two are indeed expensive right now).
I guess PS4 Pro and Xbox One X have altered perceptions on price (those two are indeed expensive right now).
Imo, it's possible that we'll have the announcement of 1 or 2 new games, full details on both PS5 with all their features, AI and UI, PS Now, PSN and PS Store updates. And of course, release date with all the launch games dated as well. But again, that's just my opinion, not a confirmation or anything.
Yeah, I'm with you on this. But it's not about what we think. It's the impact and marketing that 299 EUR will bring that makes sense here.
So has anyone actually received a Preorder invitation from sony yet or are they just talking about the invitation to register ?
In a way I hope Sony doesn't say a single thing related to the PS5 this week.
And just drops a tweet next week with the date and price.
And just drops a tweet next week with the date and price.
Not good enough for me. Croc is superior to all of these, who wouldn't want to play a cute green dinosaur?
Ahah the waiting game can be frustrating for some people but I know whatever the games Sony will show, there will be enough variety for everyone so that's good in the end.
Yeah absolutely they aren't as big but the hype for R&C is huge and its looking like it'll be a big launch and I think it'll be the best selling Ratchet game. Taking a middle approach is probably right though, we don't know what they have yet and delays can happen at any time.
I think if the Bloomberg reported 10M produced by end of this year is right we'd be looking at 10M+ shipped by the end of the FY but this is still all super variable. Might be good to see some solid estimates with a varying amount of PS5 sold, but as you said it would mostly be offset by increase in game and accessory sales so the hit to financials would be minor.
Its not cheap but its cheaper than expected for a new generation launch and is a great price for competitiveness in the UK and US. In places like Europe its not going to do anything though, a much more radical shift than just being cheaper would be needed by xbox to try and gain ground.
It obviously is but they've got a lot in store they're holding back for the next 2 years. I just can't wait to see the trailers all of these future games and rewatch them a thousand times haha.
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