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Hyun Sai

Member
Oct 27, 2017
14,562
SK has 8K+ cases and a mortality rate of 0.9%.
HK SAR has 146 cases and a mortality rate of 2.6%.
Singapore has 226 cases and a mortality rate of 0%.
Germany, at this moment, has 5.6K cases and a mortality rate of 0.17%.

Are they conspiring with China and lying about their numbers together? That's exactly the ugly part of this disease: if the medical system will hold in an outbreak, most people can survive; when the hospitals run out of capacity, the mortality rate will surge. Wuhan is the prefect example for this.
Do we have fatality numbers for France yet ?
 

Deleted member 2254

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
21,467
Italy started the lockdowns and restrictions relatively early compared to most other countries, and these are their numbers with 60 million people in the country. I fear that countries that aren't being as proactive could be hit even worse.
 

Kendrid

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,129
Chicago, IL
The Dutch government just announced that all bars/restaurants have to close their doors 6 pm today. That includes coffeeshops (of the Dutch variety, if you know what I mean), so naturally there are lines forming to get a quick stash for the next couple of weeks....



States where it is legal have the same lines. I was at a liquor store yesterday and it was easy to spot the alcoholics. Carts full of booze and beer.
 

DrM

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,076
Slovenia
Slovenia update:
219 confirmed cases, 3 critical, 1 fatality. Over 6500 tests made.

All public transport, bars, restaurants and stores are shutting down. Only pharmacies, supermarkets, banks, post office and gas stations will be open.
Lidl already changed opening hours, now it is from 8:30 till 18:00. Looks like curfew is the next step.

Factories are still operating normally, but I think that we will see closures soon (at latest when they ran out of materials)
 

Ether_Snake

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
11,306
User Banned (2 Weeks): Ignoring Staff Post and Fearmongering Over Multiple Posts; Prior Ban for the Same
SK has 8K+ cases and a mortality rate of 0.9%.
HK SAR has 146 cases and a mortality rate of 2.6%.
Singapore has 226 cases and a mortality rate of 0%.
Germany, at this moment, has 5.6K cases and a mortality rate of 0.17%.

Are they conspiring with China and lying about their numbers together? That's exactly the ugly part of this disease: if the medical system will hold in an outbreak, most people can survive; when the hospitals run out of capacity, the mortality rate will surge. Wuhan is the prefect example for this.

South Korea's mortality rate is 8.25%
China is 4.56%
Japan is 14.29%
Italy is 43.6%
Iran is 13%
 

Gorgosh

Member
Oct 26, 2017
957
Graphs of Italy and Germany align prefectly so far.
www.worldometers.info

Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info

Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

February 27 Italy 655 cases
March 06 Germany 670 cases

8 days later:
Italy 4636 cases
Germany 4599

Today (9 days later, but still counting)
Italy 5883 cases
Germany 5795 (still growing) https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-virus-karte-infektionen-deutschland-weltweit/

Only benefit we have is that we will probably enter lockdown with lower numbers, so maybe that will halt the grow at least a bit in 1-2 weeks.
 

Garchia3.0

Member
Dec 20, 2018
1,859
Do we have a timeline of how South Korea started to react when they noticed COVID-19 was a thing? I think it would be interesting to look back in time to see how exactly should we respond in the future. Also Singapore. Both countries have been doing an incredible job at handling their own outbreaks.
 

Lunzio

Member
Oct 28, 2017
280
Truth is no numbers are true numbers. There are more mild cases out there that we don't know about (and may never know) and likely cases resulting in death that weren't tested.

It genuinely irks me seeing peers in my country (USA) not appropriately following strong recommendations by staying home, avoiding parties, etc. I'm in healthcare/work in a hospital.
 

Futureman

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,405
The current thinking is this started in an outdoor market in China? Has China announced anything like new sanitary guidelines these markets need to follow?
 

HMD

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,300
Looking at an 8% global mortality rate, vaccines skipping to human trials doesn't seem so outrageous anymore.
 

Deleted member 51691

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 6, 2019
17,834
Truth is no numbers are true numbers. There are more mild cases out there that we don't know about (and may never know) and likely cases resulting in death that weren't tested.

It genuinely irks me seeing peers in my country (USA) not appropriately following strong recommendations by staying home, avoiding parties, etc. I'm in healthcare/work in a hospital.
It's not surprising, just disappointing how selfish some Americans are being.
 

RulkezX

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,342
Can some of you who seem to be taking pleasure in the potential for disaster in the UK stop being cunts and remember there are members here with at risk family members reading your posts.

Thanks
 

zulux21

Member
Oct 25, 2017
20,373
Higher than that unfortunately...as someone pointed out, you should only divide the deaths by the closed cases, not total cases :/
you absolutely should not be doing that it will greatly inflate the mortality rate.

if you do that you will be taking nearly 100% of the people who got sick enough to die from it because if you are that sick you will be tested but you will be ignoring nearly 100% of people who didn't show more than minor symptoms likely doubling or even more the mortality rate, getting no where near a more accurate number just a more scary number.

if we had a 100% test rate (aka everyone sick or healthy is getting tested very day) then sure that would be a valid way to do it, but we are no where near that.
 

Hero_of_the_Day

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
17,348
Co-worker whose roommate has been sick with a fever for the last couple of days just left as they are now also feeling like shit. This is all fine...
 

Deleted member 2254

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
21,467
Also I would suggest not getting excessively lost in the maths. As it stands, people in Italy are hardly getting tested without serious symptoms or without having been in prolonged close contact with a confirmed positive case. This, first of all, means that there could be tons of infected people just getting through it all without being counted in any calculation. This way of counting also ensures that a very high percentage of tests ends up being positive, as they don't just pick random sane people for checks but those who effectively have high chances of having the virus. Italy stopped counting the people without symptoms long ago (so the effective number of positives is higher, thus lower infected/death ratio). Lastly, most of the people who died had various other diseases, and many of them would have likely died not too long from here. It's a +1 in the coronavirus count but for many it's inaccurate to say that this person died because of the coronavirus per se.

The Italian numbers are horrendous and alarming, but don't start panicing over the "7% of the infected are dying!" and such calculations because they are wildly inaccurate.
 

HipsterMorty

alt account
Banned
Jan 25, 2020
901
Why of all countries, Italy got hit super hard? It's so unlucky for them.
Their healthcare system has been overwhelmed for a while now and the continued increase in cases is exacerbating the issue. The lockdown won't have the intended effect for at least another week or two. This is why every other country needs to lockdown now. China and Italy are both examples of just how quickly this thing becomes unmanageable if drastic measures aren't taken as soon as possible.
 

ryan299

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,428
If I were Bill D I would have locked this city up a week ago, but it's not an easy choice, large ripples throughout. Expected him to pull the trigger today, still time. NYC is not being cooperative, last night I took a walk, about a mile around my area, took precautions, it was business as usual. People are just too stubborn.

I was feeling better after keeping myself in doors for a week, but yesterday my chest started to burn a bit and cough came back, no fever. Haven't interacted with anyone, even when I went out for my walk I did so with mask, no shortness of breath. Just weird, my stomach is burning too, wondering if it's stress related.

Hope everyone stays safe, and heads warnings.

my chest is burning as well. No fever. Very mild cough.
 

Naru

Member
May 11, 2019
2,373
There was a picture with a graph that had all the countries with cases after the 100 positive test. I can find it anymore. Is there one that updates daily?
 

elty

Member
Oct 31, 2017
1,954
Higher than that unfortunately...as someone pointed out, you should only divide the deaths by the closed cases, not total cases :/
That's incorrect. You cannot solely use the close case to calculate it either.

If you solely use closed case, then at one point there was more people dead than recover in Wuhan. However we all know that this disease did not have a >50% rate.

It is still rather early in the pandemic, however if you use the number from China who has a good portion of recovered case, you will notice that both calculation would start of very different, but eventually they will converge to the true number.
 

Garchia3.0

Member
Dec 20, 2018
1,859
Their healthcare system has been overwhelmed for a while now and the continued increase in cases is exacerbating the issue. The lockdown won't have the intended effect for at least another week or two. This is why every other country needs to lockdown now. China and Italy are both examples of just how quickly this thing becomes unmanageable if drastic measures aren't taken as soon as possible.

People in Italy have been actively sending warnings on Twitter for the last 2 or 3 days now. They want other countries to prepare. We HAVE to listen to them.
 

Ether_Snake

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
11,306
Recovery takes longer than dying, so these numbers also are not accurate. We probably can say more if the first batch of infected is totally recovered.

That's why I usually avoid taking into account countries that have not had a lot of cases for a while. China, Iran, Japan, South Korea, are countries that have been dealing with this long enough. At worst, take China's example, which if they are "cheating their numbers" are sure being nice about it because their mortality rate is still high at over 4%, and if Japan is also "cheating", they are still above 14% anyway.
 

Futureman

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,405
I'm not assuming anything. These numbers will continue to change as more and more people test positive. There is also the fact that many people are positive without having been tested, which also skew the numbers.

Because of this fact it seems like an unnecessary panic you be posting "mortality rates" now?
 

FTF

Member
Oct 28, 2017
28,431
New York
you absolutely should not be doing that it will greatly inflate the mortality rate.

if you do that you will be taking nearly 100% of the people who got sick enough to die from it because if you are that sick you will be tested but you will be ignoring nearly 100% of people who didn't show more than minor symptoms likely doubling or even more the mortality rate, getting no where near a more accurate number just a more scary number.

if we had a 100% test rate (aka everyone sick or healthy is getting tested very day) then sure that would be a valid way to do it, but we are no where near that.
That's incorrect. You cannot solely use the close case to calculate it either.

If you solely use closed case, then at one point there was more people dead than recover in Wuhan. However we all know that this disease did not have a >50% rate.

It is still rather early in the pandemic, however if you use the number from China who has a good portion of recovered case, you will notice that both calculation would start of very different, but eventually they will converge to the true number.

hmm ok, these are good points.
 

Honome

Member
Jan 10, 2018
1,084
Rio de Janeiro
Graphs of Italy and Germany align prefectly so far.
www.worldometers.info

Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info

Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

February 27 Italy 655 cases
March 06 Germany 670 cases

8 days later:
Italy 4636 cases
Germany 4599

Today (9 days later, but still counting)
Italy 5883 cases
Germany 5795 (still growing) https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-virus-karte-infektionen-deutschland-weltweit/

Only benefit we have is that we will probably enter lockdown with lower numbers, so maybe that will halt the grow at least a bit in 1-2 weeks.

Damn, on Feb 27 Italy had only 17 deaths!!!! The velocity this thing explodes is unbelievable. Really fell bad for Italy and i hope their fatalities start slowing down after all the lockdowns.
 

Gibson

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,270
9 out of 10 of the BBCs most read stories are Corona related, I've never seen anything like that before.