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Overall maximum teraflops for next-gen launch consoles?

  • 8 teraflops

    Votes: 43 1.9%
  • 9 teraflops

    Votes: 56 2.4%
  • 12 teraflops

    Votes: 978 42.5%
  • 14 teraflops

    Votes: 525 22.8%
  • Team ALL THE WAY UP +14 teraflops

    Votes: 491 21.3%
  • 10 teraflops (because for some reason I put 9 instead of 10)

    Votes: 208 9.0%

  • Total voters
    2,301
Status
Not open for further replies.

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,918
Maryland
It doesn't really matter if it's in the JEDEC standard if no-one actually manufactures the chips.

AFAIK, SK Hynix and Samsung has said they will only offer 1GB (8Gb) and 2GB (16Gb) chips.

Dunno about Micron but my google-fu comes up blank.

It would be pretty impressive for Sony to put 12Gb memory chips in a devkit that nobody is currently manufacturing.

I'm gonna jot this one down as a pretty conspicuous fake:


"We would like to buy 100 million of these chips for over a billion dollars."

"Sorry, can't do it, we hate money."

Regardless of the amount in each chip, they Micron forecast clearly showed game consoles using GDDR6, so I would assume at least one console is using it, unless plans changed.
 

DukeBlueBall

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,059
Seattle, WA
It doesn't really matter if it's in the JEDEC standard if no-one actually manufactures the chips.

AFAIK, SK Hynix and Samsung has said they will only offer 1GB (8Gb) and 2GB (16Gb) chips.

Dunno about Micron but my google-fu comes up blank.

It would be pretty impressive for Sony to put 12Gb memory chips in a devkit that nobody is currently manufacturing.

I'm gonna jot this one down as a pretty conspicuous fake:



What if it's 24GB but 6GBs are locked behind a driver to simulate final console game partition?
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
"We would like to buy 100 million of these chips for over a billion dollars."

"Sorry, can't do it, we hate money."

Why would Sony want to be the sole customer for hypothetical 12Gb GDDR6 (thus bearing the brunt of the costs of commercialising a whole new product category, baked into their contract price)?

The whole point of buying off the shelf memory is that you're not the only guy buying product from that same shelf.

What if it's 24GB but 6GBs are locked behind a driver to simulate final console game partition?

Could be, but the description of how that 18GBs was interrogated doesn't seem to suggest that (a GPU dump?)

The whole thing seems off to me. If it's 24, 20 or even 18GB of GDDR6, why would the devkit also need 64GB of system RAM?
 

Deleted member 40133

User requested account closure
Banned
Feb 19, 2018
6,095
Ok maybe I didn't get that part right. I said that based on Albert's ideia of PS5 having only 12GB total allocated for games. Or was he excluding the 8GB HBM VRAM?

That's an incorrect understanding on his part (it is tricky). 8 gigs hbm 2 for game, 16 gigs ddr4 for game, 4 gigs for the OS. Not all the ram a game needs, needs to be hyper fast. So 20 total for games
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,918
Maryland
Why would Sony want to be the sole customer for hypothetical 12Gb GDDR6 (thus bearing the brunt of the costs of commercialising a whole new product category, baked into their contract price)?

The whole point of buying off the shelf memory is that fact that your not the only one buying that product from the same shelf.
They would do it if it were economically advantageous. If the manufacturers came back and quoted a price that wasn't much different than 2GB chips, Sony might just acquiesce. But you don't no bid a contract for hundreds of millions of memory chips when the smartphone market is seeing weak demand and people are trying to shift capacity to markets with demand.
 

Deleted member 40133

User requested account closure
Banned
Feb 19, 2018
6,095
"We would like to buy 100 million of these chips for over a billion dollars."

"Sorry, can't do it, we hate money."

Regardless of the amount in each chip, they Micron forecast clearly showed game consoles using GDDR6, so I would assume at least one console is using it, unless plans changed.

I had not considered this. Someone MUST be using gddr6, yet both consoles have patents for hbm solutions. In your personal opinion, which console do you think will use hbm? If either, not all patents are used
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,918
Maryland
I had not considered this. Someone MUST be using gddr6, yet both consoles have patents for hbm solutions. In your personal opinion, which console do you think will use hbm? If either, not all patents are used
Patents don't necessarily turn into products. Microsoft has multiple SKUs, and previous gen revisions could always switch to GDDR6 to shrink the memory bus.
 

Albert Penello

Verified
Nov 2, 2017
320
Redmond, WA
That's an incorrect understanding on his part (it is tricky). 8 gigs hbm 2 for game, 16 gigs ddr4 for game, 4 gigs for the OS. Not all the ram a game needs, needs to be hyper fast. So 20 total for games

It's not a misunderstanding on my part. I don't believe those rumors - HBM, the split, or the amount. I believe you're going to see < / =16gb of traditional GDDR6.

I feel like I'm being a super bummer. Feel free to ignore me or maybe I should stop posting.

EDIT - Will continue to say I also believe $399.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
They would do it if it were economically advantageous. If the manufacturers came back and quoted a price that wasn't much different than 2GB chips, Sony might just acquiesce. But you don't no bid a contract for hundreds of millions of memory chips when the smartphone market is seeing weak demand and people are trying to shift capacity to markets with demand.

This hypothetical would only seem economically advantageous in the short term.

If the differential between 12 and 16Gb chips is low as you propose, then once the rest of the industry demand moves to 16Gb chips, Sony will remain stuck with 12Gb chips and thus unable to benefit from the negative pressure on pricing for 16Gb chips that the greater demand imposed by the wider market will put on them.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,918
Maryland
This hypothetical would only seem economically advantageous in the short term.

If the differential between 12 and 16Gb chips is low as you propose, then once the rest of the industry demand moves to 16Gb chips, Sony will remain stuck with 12Gb chips and thus unable to benefit from the negative pressure on pricing for 16Gb chips that the greater demand imposed by the wider market will put on them.
They would just switch to 16Gb. The chips are identical pinouts. The OS would just be unaware of the extra space per chip.
 

Deleted member 40133

User requested account closure
Banned
Feb 19, 2018
6,095
It's not a misunderstanding on my part. I don't believe those rumors - HBM, the split, or the amount. I believe you're going to see < / =16gb of traditional GDDR6.

I feel like I'm being a super bummer. Feel free to ignore me or maybe I should stop posting.

You're not being a bummer, you're just putting your opinion out there like everyone else. At the end of the day it's speculation based on a rumour that's only been given credence because it takes genuine technical knowledge and effort to have it make sense. But people have literally 3d printed consoles claiming them to be real. So it's not exactly unheard of for someone to put so much effort
 

Kyoufu

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,582
It's not a misunderstanding on my part. I don't believe those rumors - HBM, the split, or the amount. I believe you're going to see < / =16gb of traditional GDDR6.

I feel like I'm being a super bummer. Feel free to ignore me or maybe I should stop posting.

EDIT - Will continue to say I also believe $399.

Nah, I'm glad someone else also doesn't put much stock into that rumour. It's nonsensical imo.

And I agree, $399 might be what PS5 goes for. Sure, an SSD is fancy and all but we don't know how big the GPU is yet. Heck, we don't even know how big the SSD itself is.
 

nolifebr

Banned
Sep 1, 2018
11,465
Curitiba/BR
Man, only 4 gigs more than X1X would be something sad to see, even if it's a more new/advanced type of memory. It can be even worse because it may result in only 12GB being used for gaming.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
They would just switch to 16Gb. The chips are identical pinouts. The OS would just be unaware of the extra space per chip.

And suddenly start selling PS5 consoles with more memory mid-way through the gen?

If they wanted to keep with the 18GB total they started the gen off with, moving to 16Gb chips would mean 9 of them, which wouldn't quite work with the bus config.

EDIT:

I see what you're saying now. The OS would just see the total 18GB max. meaning the extra physical RAM just gets unused... a bit a wasteful solution, imho.

Tbf, I don't see GDDR6 makers offering Sony (or anyone for that matter) a better deal on a currently non-existent product, than one that is already in product sampling and mass production.
 

Expy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,876
QpArCo2.png


http://boards.4channel.org/v/thread/459661965

Zen 7 = Ryzen 7?

Seem to be a Windows PC using the PS5 SOC purely as a GPU.

Source is dubious, but nonetheless rumors and speculations eh?
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,918
Maryland
And suddenly start selling PS5 consoles will more memory mid-way through the gen?

If they wanted to keep with the 18GB total they started the gen off with, moving to 16Gb chips would mean 9 of them, which wouldn't quite work with the bus config.
Yes, they'd move to bigger capacity chips. It would be transparent to users and we likely wouldn't even know unless someone did a tear down and read the product codes on the chips.
 

Hudsoniscool

Banned
Jun 5, 2018
1,495
It's not a misunderstanding on my part. I don't believe those rumors - HBM, the split, or the amount. I believe you're going to see < / =16gb of traditional GDDR6.

I feel like I'm being a super bummer. Feel free to ignore me or maybe I should stop posting.

EDIT - Will continue to say I also believe $399.
Don't worry about it Albert. People do this every gen. They where expecting ps4 and Xbox one to be 4tf. they shoot for the stars every time and are then disappointed. Almost seams like they want to be disappointed.

I think 8tf/ zen2 8 core at 3.2 ghz/16gbgddr6/ssd is great for 399.
For 499$ i think 10tf/zen2 at 3.5 ghz/ 20gbgddr6/ssd is great.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,918
Maryland
Don't worry about it Albert. People do this every gen. They where expecting ps4 and Xbox one to be 4tf. they shoot for the stars every time and are then disappointed. Almost seams like they want to be disappointed.

I think 8tf/ zen2 8 core at 3.2 ghz/16gbgddr6/ssd is great for 399.
For 499$ i think 10tf/zen2 at 3.5 ghz/ 20gbgddr6/ssd is great.
People were expecting 4GB last gen. People said no SSDs this gen. It's not always bad news.
 

Hawk269

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,059
I am kind of behind on some of this stuff. But has it been confirmed that PS5 dev kits are out? Any word if Scarlet Kits being also out?
 

Hudsoniscool

Banned
Jun 5, 2018
1,495
People were expecting 4GB last gen. People said no SSDs this gen. It's not always bad news.
Faster storage was inevitable when you actually sit down and think about it. Some games have 2-4 minute boot times and and 2 minute loading screens. Without faster storage it would be 5 minutes next gen.

But your right it's not always bad news. But it seams people are expecting Sony to have a 600$ BOM. Half of the voters think next gen is gunna be 14+ tf. People think the consoles will have 24gb gddr6 or more. Could these things happen... sure but expecting them to happen is another thing entirely.
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,825
Anyone wanna take a guess at how the SSD solution in the PS5 will compare to what they're putting in Stadia? Will Stadia be reasonably close, or will it be no contest in load speeds and the ability to rapidly load assets on the fly?
 

Broncs

Member
Nov 26, 2018
120
If Ps1, Ps2 & Ps3 backward compatibility were to happen how would it most likely work? Would it be like Ps2 & Ps3 where you could just chuck the disc in & barring any compatibility issues the game would work or would the game have to be added to a compatibility list first.

How does Microsoft do it?
 

Pheonix

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
5,990
St Kitts
Don't worry about it Albert. People do this every gen. They where expecting ps4 and Xbox one to be 4tf. they shoot for the stars every time and are then disappointed. Almost seams like they want to be disappointed.

I think 8tf/ zen2 8 core at 3.2 ghz/16gbgddr6/ssd is great for 399.
For 499$ i think 10tf/zen2 at 3.5 ghz/ 20gbgddr6/ssd is great.
I could have sworn the expectation last gen was 2.5TF not 4TF. And we had alienware you thank for that. And just one thread ago lot of us were crazy for even expecting SSDs.

I am expecting en at 3.2Ghz and a 10-12TF GPU with 16GB GDDR6 + 4GB LPDDR4. All for $399.

Mind you, I expect them to be taking a loss of about $50-$80 on each console sold.
 

RoboPlato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,825
I feel like the little PS5 spec reveal has actually made it more frustrating to talk about the specs since they didn't give any hard numbers and we don't know much more about the strategy and goals for the hardware aside from an SSD and some sort of raytracing support.
 

Son Goku

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
4,332
I could have sworn the expectation last gen was 2.5TF not 4TF. And we had alienware you thank for that. And just one thread ago lot of us were crazy for even expecting SSDs.

I am expecting en at 3.2Ghz and a 10-12TF GPU with 16GB GDDR6 + 4GB LPDDR4. All for $399.

Mind you, I expect them to be taking a loss of about $50-$80 on each console sold.
so about the same loss as ps4 and same price

This seems sensible and it would all but guarantee Sony would maintain dominance considering ps4 BC and possibly even more BC
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,825
Right, but prove your proof-of-concepts to see whether they are viable or not.

LOL, you're funny :D

I feel like the little PS5 spec reveal has actually made it more frustrating to talk about the specs since they didn't give any hard numbers and we don't know much more about the strategy and goals for the hardware aside from an SSD and some sort of raytracing support.

Yup, it was a pretty good teaser from them. It gave us enough to be interested and for us to ask questions, but left out enough to keep their full plan under wraps. I'm now thinking that whatever Microsoft announces at E3 that Sony will plan a response that'll happen in the following month. Maybe another article, maybe a State of Play, who knows. I am kinda thinking they'll do a State of Play before E3 featuring one of the Big 3 games (probably The Last of Us 2) with a release date, and then a post E3 something with more PS5 tidbits.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,918
Maryland
Faster storage was inevitable when you actually sit down and think about it. Some games have 2-4 minute boot times and and 2 minute loading screens. Without faster storage it would be 5 minutes next gen.

But your right it's not always bad news. But it seams people are expecting Sony to have a 600$ BOM. Half of the voters think next gen is gunna be 14+ tf. People think the consoles will have 24gb gddr6 or more. Could these things happen... sure but expecting them to happen is another thing entirely.

Something something hindsight in 2020.

Right, but prove your proof-of-concepts to see whether they are viable or not.

Build me a 1.8TF PC with 8GB RAM, 500GB HDD, Blu Ray Drive, and a controller using parts and prices from 2013 for $400.

I'll wait.
 

Hudsoniscool

Banned
Jun 5, 2018
1,495
I could have sworn the expectation last gen was 2.5TF not 4TF. And we had alienware you thank for that. And just one thread ago lot of us were crazy for even expecting SSDs.

I am expecting en at 3.2Ghz and a 10-12TF GPU with 16GB GDDR6 + 4GB LPDDR4. All for $399.

Mind you, I expect them to be taking a loss of about $50-$80 on each console sold.
I think those are solid expectations for a 500$ system.
 
Nov 30, 2017
1,563
My guess has remained at 11TF for a while.

But yes I remember the old days and the countless "insiders" that said xbox had 3TF and you could book it. It was people clsimung to actually work at MS. Hell i was even convinced by a couple.
 

OnPorpoise

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
1,301
Don't worry about it Albert. People do this every gen. They where expecting ps4 and Xbox one to be 4tf.
The general expectation was 2.5 teraflops:
A "good enough," approximation of visual reality, Sweeney said, is 5,000 trillion floating point operations per second, or teraFLOPs. By comparison, the much-noticed "Samaritan" demonstration of Unreal Engine at last year's Game Developers Conference, required just 2.5 teraFLOPs.
2.5 to 3 teraflops was the speculated range I remember seeing most until the official numbers started to leak.
 

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
I feel like the little PS5 spec reveal has actually made it more frustrating to talk about the specs since they didn't give any hard numbers and we don't know much more about the strategy and goals for the hardware aside from an SSD and some sort of raytracing support.
I feel the complete opposite. i dont think they have played all their cards just yet, but a lot of what they talked about gave us a clearer picture of what they want from a next gen console.

SSDs are expensive. Even if the prices crash next year, they wouldve placed the orders already. they decided on the SSD because they didnt want to go with an underpowered $399 console. To me, the inclusion of the SSD and bigging it up pretty much confirms a $499 monster.

And secondly, the mention of ray tracing. everyone seems to be be very hesitant on calling it hardware based ray tracing and yet i am like why else would he mention it in such great detail if it wasnt hardware based? ANY GPU, even the ps4 GPU can do ray tracing. if we follow the logic, he is clearly talking about hardware based ray tracing. the naughty dog dev reached that conclusion immediately before sony ninjas got to him, but thats pretty much the only logical explanation.

if you add an SSD and dedicated RTX cores, you are looking at a $499 console. if you are looking at a $499 console, you can assume that we will have some kind of vapor chamber cooling. if you can assume that, you can assume a 12+ tflops monster.

Lastly, the mention of 3D audio sealed it for me. When it comes to consoles, every dollar matters. we saw this with the PS Vita where they shockingly decided not to include any SD cards to make sure they hit the $250 price tag. we saw this with the PS4 Pro when once again, they omitted a 4k bluray drive despite it being only $15 more expensive than a regular bluray drive. do we really think they would go through the trouble of adding a dedicated audio chip on the motherboard if they didnt have the budget to play around with? both in terms of space on the mobo and the overall cost. Even if that chip only adds $10 to the BoM, they are looking at a $100 million loss on the first 10 million consoles sold in the first year.

TLDR; SSD+RTX cores+3DAudio=$500 monster. Cerny gave us all the clues.
 

eathdemon

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,690
I feel the complete opposite. i dont think they have played all their cards just yet, but a lot of what they talked about gave us a clearer picture of what they want from a next gen console.

SSDs are expensive. Even if the prices crash next year, they wouldve placed the orders already. they decided on the SSD because they didnt want to go with an underpowered $399 console. To me, the inclusion of the SSD and bigging it up pretty much confirms a $499 monster.

And secondly, the mention of ray tracing. everyone seems to be be very hesitant on calling it hardware based ray tracing and yet i am like why else would he mention it in such great detail if it wasnt hardware based? ANY GPU, even the ps4 GPU can do ray tracing. if we follow the logic, he is clearly talking about hardware based ray tracing. the naughty dog dev reached that conclusion immediately before sony ninjas got to him, but thats pretty much the only logical explanation.

if you add an SSD and dedicated RTX cores, you are looking at a $499 console. if you are looking at a $499 console, you can assume that we will have some kind of vapor chamber cooling. if you can assume that, you can assume a 12+ tflops monster.

Lastly, the mention of 3D audio sealed it for me. When it comes to consoles, every dollar matters. we saw this with the PS Vita where they shockingly decided not to include any SD cards to make sure they hit the $250 price tag. we saw this with the PS4 Pro when once again, they omitted a 4k bluray drive despite it being only $15 more expensive than a regular bluray drive. do we really think they would go through the trouble of adding a dedicated audio chip on the motherboard if they didnt have the budget to play around with? both in terms of space on the mobo and the overall cost. Even if that chip only adds $10 to the BoM, they are looking at a $100 million loss on the first 10 million consoles sold in the first year.

TLDR; SSD+RTX cores+3DAudio=$500 monster. Cerny gave us all the clues.
at this point I wounder if the real power battle wont be tfps, but how much of the chip ms and sony chose to dedicate to RT. safe bet both will have it, its more a question of how much.
 

Deleted member 1589

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,576
The general expectation was 2.5 teraflops:

2.5 to 3 teraflops was the speculated range I remember seeing most until the official numbers started to leak.
Think people forgot that the actual point of questioning insiders is that they can get it wrong.

It's not like I'm saying it's their fault either. They get info that might be right in the point of time they said it, but things change.

I'm saying this even while thinking that Anaconda will probably be more powerful than the PS5, but the key word is 'probably'. It's something not set in stone yet, with how very little we know about both systems.
 

RoboPlato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,825
I feel the complete opposite. i dont think they have played all their cards just yet, but a lot of what they talked about gave us a clearer picture of what they want from a next gen console.

SSDs are expensive. Even if the prices crash next year, they wouldve placed the orders already. they decided on the SSD because they didnt want to go with an underpowered $399 console. To me, the inclusion of the SSD and bigging it up pretty much confirms a $499 monster.

And secondly, the mention of ray tracing. everyone seems to be be very hesitant on calling it hardware based ray tracing and yet i am like why else would he mention it in such great detail if it wasnt hardware based? ANY GPU, even the ps4 GPU can do ray tracing. if we follow the logic, he is clearly talking about hardware based ray tracing. the naughty dog dev reached that conclusion immediately before sony ninjas got to him, but thats pretty much the only logical explanation.

if you add an SSD and dedicated RTX cores, you are looking at a $499 console. if you are looking at a $499 console, you can assume that we will have some kind of vapor chamber cooling. if you can assume that, you can assume a 12+ tflops monster.

Lastly, the mention of 3D audio sealed it for me. When it comes to consoles, every dollar matters. we saw this with the PS Vita where they shockingly decided not to include any SD cards to make sure they hit the $250 price tag. we saw this with the PS4 Pro when once again, they omitted a 4k bluray drive despite it being only $15 more expensive than a regular bluray drive. do we really think they would go through the trouble of adding a dedicated audio chip on the motherboard if they didnt have the budget to play around with? both in terms of space on the mobo and the overall cost. Even if that chip only adds $10 to the BoM, they are looking at a $100 million loss on the first 10 million consoles sold in the first year.

TLDR; SSD+RTX cores+3DAudio=$500 monster. Cerny gave us all the clues.
True. I definitely do think that they're targeting $499 now whereas I was expecting $399 before. At this point I expect PS5 and Anaconda to be quite similar overall.
 
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
Better for consumers or better for sales? Cause wouldn't a $299 console at launch hold back the gen?

This "hold back the gen" notion has been discussed so much already I don't know how you have not already form an opinion on the subject.

But when you look at the evidence (variable settings on PC, switch, Gpd win and the scalability of game engines) I think 99. 9% of games will have no problem being on a weaker sku and the 0.1 that are not could be easily remidied.

Fortunately I am confident if 2 sku happens for MS, if lockhart shares the CPU has a very similar ram setup and 3/8 of the GPU power of Ana then I think lockheart will impress digital foundry with its next gen parity aside from resolution, which will hopefully stop the "hold it back" comments or people who continue to say it will be fools once evidence of its great execution has been shown and expirenced. 1080p is still quite good, you are only losing image clarity and reduced aliasing in some cases, but the polycounty, shaders, lighting, physics and other graphical effects remains the same.
 

Son Goku

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
4,332
This "hold back the gen" notion has been discussed so much already I don't know how you have not already form an opinion on the subject.

But when you look at the evidence (variable settings on PC, switch, Gpd win and the scalability of game engines) I think 99. 9% of games will have no problem being on a weaker sku and the 0.1 that are not could be easily remidied.

Fortunately I am confident if 2 sku happens for MS, if lockhart shares the CPU has a very similar ram setup and 3/8 of the GPU power of Ana then I think lockheart will impress digital foundry with its next gen parity aside from resolution, which will hopefully stop the "hold it back" comments or people who continue to say it will be fools once evidence of its great execution has been shown and expirenced. 1080p is still quite good, you are only losing image clarity and reduced aliasing in some cases, but the polycounty, shaders, lighting, physics and other graphical effects remains the same.
Well then why have a higher powered console at all for either of them? Does resolution alone really make a difference? Seems like someone would have done a cheapo console with a nice cpu by now if that's all they'd lose
 
Feb 23, 2019
1,426
Some people (wrongly) based their assumption on PS5 being $399 because that's what the PS4 Pro was...

Honestly I think Sony just wanted to throw out a cheap upgrade with PS4 Pro...but they clearly admitted it wasn't going to be a major leap. I think that because they couldn't really touch the CPU, they thought there wasn't any big reason to go all out with all the bells and whistles...

This is the same Cerny that designed the base PS4....he knows what a generational leap entails, and PS5 isn't going to be a minor upgrade...they are going to go out and set the baseline for the coming gen so devs have something truly substantial to sink their prowess into

If that means $499, so be it. I think the market would easily go all out for an upgrade like that, plus they still have $199 for PS4 for the price conscious consumers
 
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