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Ionic

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
2,735
If you're worried about games like Flight Simulator 2020, which needs to stream data from the net for max detail, I wouldn't be.

Running virtual servers in the cloud costs money to the dev. Running things on your console is free. Other than a few special cases, I would expect the status quo to remain for the next decade at a minimum.

I think of Flight Sim as somewhat of a different beast. The reason streaming is required on it is because it encompasses the planet which is a big thing. But generally, the bandwidth to stream the data necessary for a flight over Utah or something is not absolutely massive. The prospect of downloading a game level on the fly with the kind of fidelity of the UE5 demo is something else entirely. Surely it's at least a couple orders of magnitude more data dense than anything in Flight Sim.

And I understand the thought that "streaming costs money so on console is preferable", but the technology du jour for Microsoft and Sony (and others) is getting players invested in subscription services. With players more amenable to the concept of monthly subscriptions for gaming than they have ever been in the past I feel the old logic of developers shying away from active services due to upkeep costs will be out of date.

Regardless, for now this thought just stems from a small article and the reality of massive game sizes to match the increased fidelity paired with the pitiful console SSD's. I'll just have to wait and see to understand what Microsoft/Sony/Epic have in mind.
 

Pheonix

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
5,990
St Kitts
No way you get a 4TB SSD in a console in 2027, prices don't go down that fast lol
ahhhh.... reminds me how just about 12 months ago there were a lot of people that also said no way ou get an SSD ina console.

Are you willing to bet on it? I say...in 7-8 years time, it would "cost sony/MS" around whatever it cost them to put 825GB/1TB SSDs in their console today but instead with 4TB SSDs.

That not the same as saying that it would cost consumers $50 to buy a 4TB SSD, I see it costing consumers no more than $100. In 7-8 years for a 4TB SSD.
 
Dec 31, 2017
1,430
ahhhh.... reminds me how just about 12 months ago there were a lot of people that also said no way ou get an SSD ina console.

Are you willing to bet on it? I say...in 7-8 years time, it would "cost sony/MS" around whatever it cost them to put 825GB/1TB SSDs in their console today but instead with 4TB SSDs.

That not the same as saying that it would cost consumers $50 to buy a 4TB SSD, I see it costing consumers no more than $100. In 7-8 years for a 4TB SSD.
Do you have data to show that SSD drive costs have been going down that fast? Because even looking at 1TB drives for PC for the last few years, sorry to say but it's been far from falling at a rate where you'd get 4TB for 50$ in 6 years, far from it.
 

eso76

Prophet of Truth
Member
Dec 8, 2017
8,120
Good read, but make the demo available to download on PS5 and then we'll talk :P
 

Pheonix

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
5,990
St Kitts
Do you have data to show that SSD drive costs have been going down that fast? Because even looking at 1TB drives for PC for the last few years, sorry to say but it's been far from falling at a rate where you'd get 4TB for 50$ in 6 years, far from it.
Here

in 2012, an SSD cost 99c per GB. That literally meant that a 1TB SSD then cost $990.

By 2017... five years later, it had dropped to 17c/GB. 1TB had become $170.

But somehow, you believe that in the 10 years following that their prices would just stop dropping?

And I'll say again. I am not talking about what it would ven cost the consumer. I am talking about OEM pricing. You don't think it cost sony/MS $200+ dollars to have an SSD in the PS5/XSX right now do you? It cost them no more than $50- $60 at the most.

And yes, based on history, I expect that for $50 - $60 in another 7 years? They would be able to get 4TB worth of space instead o the 1TB that they can get now.

Hell, in the next 2/3 years I expect we would see versions of the PS/XSX with double the SSD space.
 

Negotiator117

Banned
Jul 3, 2020
1,713
Yeah. I mean, they spoke about 33 million polygon assets. It's hard to know exactly how many verts it has but lets assume 33 million verts too. The cheapest possibie way to store that asset is as 3 floats per vert and 3 long per poly (need long since so many verts).
So thats 4 bytes * 3 * 33 million plus
8 bytes * 3 * 33 million
So that asset is roughly 1.2GB.
Add normals and UV and your prob at 2GB.
And thats without textures (and no tangents).
1 asset.
So not feasible for a AAA game?
 

J-Skee

The Wise Ones
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,114
This was an interesting read. UE5 does indeed sound revolutionary. With basically any asset being able to be streamed on the fly, infinitely, it seems like the future bottleneck will be... Storage! 😂

Epic implying that future games might require an Internet connection to mitigate the storage problem isn't really something I'm excited about, eventhough I personally have a great Internet connection...

I'd rather have an innovative new, physical storage solution to go along with it.

Who knew? The next FF7 is really going old-school! 😂

nb3oglnq8kc41.jpg


Jokes aside, OW-games will benefit from this greatly. If you can simply import any asset into your engine, you could create any world you want. This makes me hopeful for the future of FF7 games.

I do wonder though, how storage might limit things...

Oh, and ironically, part of the reason why Square decided to go with the PlayStation instead of the N64 for the release of the original FF7 was because of Sony's storage solution. Sony's use of CD's instead of cartridges was pivotal.
Well.... Square used Unreal Engine for FF7 Remake. Maybe Sony will use this close partnership with Epic as a means to keep the sequels timed exclusives if they decide to use UE5.
 

gozu

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,360
America
No way you get a 4TB SSD in a console in 2027, prices don't go down that fast lol

Let's find out!

December 2015, 5 years ago, i bought a 500GB nvme SSD (samsung 950pro) for $350 on amazon.

Today, I can buy a 2TB samsung 950 evo plus for $320 on amazon.

The latter is not only SIGNIFICANTLY faster, but more than 4 times cheaper.

And that's 5 years, not 7.

There is no reason that, in the next 7 years, a similar 4x jump won't happen. There is plenty of margin of error available. If I had to bet, I'd go for 5x instead of 4x, actually.
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,765
I'm excited to see what UE5 can do on the PS5, but if Sony's been working with Epic on this for so long then you also have to think they've been tuning their in-house engines to have similar capabilities. Can't wait to see what they can pull off in-house too.
 

gozu

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,360
America
No way you get a 4TB SSD in a console in 2027, prices don't go down that fast lol

december 2015, 5 years ago, i bought a 500GB nvme SSD (samsung 950pro) for $350 on amazon.

Today, I can buy a 2TB samsung 970 evo plus for $320 on amazon.

The latter is not only SIGNIFICANTLY faster, but more than 4 times cheaper.

And that's 5 years.

There is no reason that, in the next 7 years, a similar 4x jump won't happen. There is plenty of margin of error available. If I had to bet, I'd go for 5x.

As you can see, the 950 pro's only advantage is the sustained write speed, where it is 23% faster.

JIZG7YI.png
 

Pheonix

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
5,990
St Kitts
Let's find out!

December 2015, 5 years ago, i bought a 500GB nvme SSD (samsung 950pro) for $350 on amazon.

Today, I can buy a 2TB samsung 950 evo plus for $320 on amazon.

The latter is not only SIGNIFICANTLY faster, but more than 4 times cheaper.

And that's 5 years, not 7.

There is no reason that, in the next 7 years, a similar 4x jump won't happen. There is plenty of margin of error available. If I had to bet, I'd go for 5x instead of 4x, actually.
lol...

Not only that, you are actually not even taking the early adopter technology tax that you are now paying into account.

That first drive you got was not only a PCIe3 drive but probably only maxed out at around 3GB/s. Now you have a drive that can match that in the XSX with twice the capacity and around 5x cheaper for MS. And a drive in the PS5 at around 1.5x the capacity, around double the speed but also at around 5x cheaper.

It's like some people just think that SSDs are exempt from the very same rules that apply to every other form of technology. Whereas history (especially) with SSDs has shown that is just not the case.

I mean, you can get a 1TB 2GB/s SSD today for a price almost 8x less than what you would get a 1TB 550MB/s SSD in 2012.
 

Pancracio17

▲ Legend ▲
Avenger
Oct 29, 2017
18,815
If you're worried about games like Flight Simulator 2020, which needs to stream data from the net for max detail, I wouldn't be.

Running virtual servers in the cloud costs money to the dev. Running things on your console is free. Other than a few special cases, I would expect the status quo to remain for the next decade at a minimum.
Yes, AAA devs would rather just compress the assets or leave the game huge. Maybe another 1 or 2 super ambitious projects will also use cloud streaming this gen, but thats about it. MSF2020 is also a perfect fit for asset streaming design wise, most games would have no need for it this gen.
 

bitcloudrzr

Member
May 31, 2018
13,961
lol...

Not only that, you are actually not even taking the early adopter technology tax that you are now paying into account.

That first drive you got was not only a PCIe3 drive but probably only maxed out at around 3GB/s. Now you have a drive that can match that in the XSX with twice the capacity and around 5x cheaper for MS. And a drive in the PS5 at around 1.5x the capacity, around double the speed but also at around 5x cheaper.

It's like some people just think that SSDs are exempt from the very same rules that apply to every other form of technology. Whereas history (especially) with SSDs has shown that is just not the case.

I mean, you can get a 1TB 2GB/s SSD today for a price almost 8x less than what you would get a 1TB 550MB/s SSD in 2012.
The 1tb SSD I got for the PS4 in 2015 was $450, dropping to $175 in 2018 for a second one which I still use as an external on my PS5.
 

Darkstorne

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,828
England
Everyone will get UE5 late this year, but we don't know when will devs start using Nanite and Lumen.
The demo was running at 1440p30fps right? And had a colossal storage size for such a short "game".

I feel like we're really looking at PS6 tech here, and the vast majority of PS5 games will use more traditional LOD techniques, but it is very exciting. Especially if they can get it working with dynamic assets like flora too.
 

Pryme

Member
Aug 23, 2018
8,164
I have to wonder why MS went with more TFLOPS instead of a faster storage architecture if this was the sentiment developers were sharing 3+ years ago.

The SSD in the Series X/S is a much faster storage architecture than the HDDs in the previous gen consoles.

The article focuses mainly on the PS5 since that's what Epic was inclined to talk about, but it often includes BOTH a consoles in the praise for the current gen setup.
 

Shairi

Member
Aug 27, 2018
8,586
Well.... Square used Unreal Engine for FF7 Remake. Maybe Sony will use this close partnership with Epic as a means to keep the sequels timed exclusives if they decide to use UE5.

I'm really not sure how that's going to play any role. Everyone can licence UE5. SE doesn't need Sony for that.
 

Firmus_Anguis

Member
Oct 30, 2017
6,123
We already have the "innovative storage solution". Its SSDs. But thee are early days yet. Eventually, we would get to a point where these consoles or nextgen console comes with around 4TB of storage. And games can take up as much as 300GB per game.

By the time next-gen consoles come along (2027?), 4TB SSDs would probably cost them around what it cost them now to put in SSDs in a PS5/XSX.
That's the all-digital future. I'm talking about an innovative alternative to UHD's... Epic is clearly implying that game's that fully make use of UE5 might get ridiculously big, 300 GB might not cut it (even COD, a cross-gen launch game, is already at 200 GB).

If you read the article, you'd understand that Epic's vision of the future involves the use of servers, (yes, the infamous "power of the cloud"), because of how much of a problem storage might turn out to be.

They also admit to actively working on making their predictions of the future come true. I'm just not a fan of their vision.

I can't see Sony or anyone one else working on solutions to physical media to store all these games on (not talking about the SSD). The all-digital future is where we're heading...
But it'll mostly benefit Epic and Sony, and everyone else looking to steer gaming that way.

I want alternatives. I don't want to have to be online to play all of my games. I don't want to pay for whatever service they'll come up with in order to stream my games via their cloud-service...

They seem to have made a fantastic engine. Being able to stream essentially whatever you want in real-time is incredibly innovative. I'll give them that... But they're not a charity. Going all-digital will mostly benefit them. Again, I want alternative solutions to play my games on.
 

J-Skee

The Wise Ones
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,114
I'm really not sure how that's going to play any role. Everyone can licence UE5. SE doesn't need Sony for that.
Of course they don't. I was putting on my marketing hat for Sony in this example. "FF7 Remake 2022 using Unreal Engine 5 only on the PS5". I'm like 80% sure someone wrote something like that down already.
 
OP
OP
Xeonidus

Xeonidus

“Fuck them kids.”
Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,279
The demo was running at 1440p30fps right? And had a colossal storage size for such a short "game".

I feel like we're really looking at PS6 tech here, and the vast majority of PS5 games will use more traditional LOD techniques, but it is very exciting. Especially if they can get it working with dynamic assets like flora too.
They sounded confident they could hit 60fps. 1440 is fine in my opinion, especially seeing how good it looks. I would rather have graphics at that quality at 1440 rather than having someone cut down the quality to hit 4k. Upscaling techniques continue to improve anyway.

I agree that a lot of games will still use traditional LOD techniques but I feel many games will transition away from them pretty quickly as well. There are far too many advantages for deveopers not to. I feel like a lot of developers have a vision they want to execute but they have to spend a lot of development time to modify and adjust that vision in many cases thanks to the limiting hardware. If UE5 does what it promises, many of those constraints would be gone. They can just fulfill their vision and spend less time fighting the limitations of the hardware. That's a powerful motivator to head towards this direction quicker.
 

buttzilla

Member
Sep 9, 2020
1,393
Interesting read, but got turned off by Epic's proclamation of:

Every previous console generation was limited by the expectation that some people don't have Internet, and have to be able to play the game off of a physical disc, right? If that expectation fades away, I think you have entirely new possibilities."

yeah sorry, I want that expectation to fade away too but unfortunately the internet/FCC isn't pro-consumer enough for this to happen. With data caps, low-speeds, and non-existent broadband for our rural friends, it'll take years if not decades for this cloud-dream to become accessible for everyone.
 
Feb 8, 2018
2,570
until we actually get to see how it transitions into a real game I'll keep my hype in check. Sounds like it will easily be one of the top engines wonder how the rest will compare.
 
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Darkstorne

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,828
England
They sounded confident they could hit 60fps. 1440 is fine in my opinion, especially seeing how good it looks. I would rather have graphics at that quality at 1440 rather than having someone cut down the quality to hit 4k. Upscaling techniques continue to improve anyway.

I agree that a lot of games will still use traditional LOD techniques but I feel many games will transition away from them pretty quickly as well. There are far too many advantages for deveopers not to. I feel like a lot of developers have a vision they want to execute but they have to spend a lot of development time to modify and adjust that vision in many cases thanks to the limiting hardware. If UE5 does what it promises, many of those constraints would be gone. They can just fulfill their vision and spend less time fighting the limitations of the hardware. That's a powerful motivator to head towards this direction quicker.
Oh, definitely. I do a lot of texture work myself so I genuinely had tears in my eyes when I first watched the tech demo =P

If they can hit 60fps at 1440p then maybe we'll see it adopted fairly well this gen. But I doubt many devs will want to sacrifice both resolution and framerate to hit that visual quality, when putting the time in for LOD models (time they're well accustomed to spending right now) will allow for huge uplifts in performance. I'm genuinely incredibly excited about the tech, but I'm also used to seeing tech demos for Unreal not being achieved visually for the best part of a decade at this point. We all remember Samaritan...
 

SeanBoocock

Senior Engineer @ Epic Games
Verified
Oct 27, 2017
248
Austin, Texas
OP
OP
Xeonidus

Xeonidus

“Fuck them kids.”
Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,279
Oh, definitely. I do a lot of texture work myself so I genuinely had tears in my eyes when I first watched the tech demo =P

If they can hit 60fps at 1440p then maybe we'll see it adopted fairly well this gen. But I doubt many devs will want to sacrifice both resolution and framerate to hit that visual quality, when putting the time in for LOD models (time they're well accustomed to spending right now) will allow for huge uplifts in performance. I'm genuinely incredibly excited about the tech, but I'm also used to seeing tech demos for Unreal not being achieved visually for the best part of a decade at this point. We all remember Samaritan...
Lol I can't even begin to imagine what it must have been like for people in the know watching the demo initially. I was excited to see the pretty graphics but I have very limited knowledge of what it actually takes to develop games. Knowing this will make things easier for them has me even more excited in a way!

You're right to be restrained in your excitement as well though. We know demos are made to show what's possible rather than to show what will be typical.
 

Pottuvoi

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,065
Oh, definitely. I do a lot of texture work myself so I genuinely had tears in my eyes when I first watched the tech demo =P

If they can hit 60fps at 1440p then maybe we'll see it adopted fairly well this gen. But I doubt many devs will want to sacrifice both resolution and framerate to hit that visual quality, when putting the time in for LOD models (time they're well accustomed to spending right now) will allow for huge uplifts in performance. I'm genuinely incredibly excited about the tech, but I'm also used to seeing tech demos for Unreal not being achieved visually for the best part of a decade at this point. We all remember Samaritan...
Nanite was quite cheap in the demo, so 60fps games certainly could use it.
Ability to get rid of high/low polygon baking should be awesome for asset work flows.
 
Dec 31, 2017
1,430
december 2015, 5 years ago, i bought a 500GB nvme SSD (samsung 950pro) for $350 on amazon.

Today, I can buy a 2TB samsung 970 evo plus for $320 on amazon.

The latter is not only SIGNIFICANTLY faster, but more than 4 times cheaper.

And that's 5 years.

There is no reason that, in the next 7 years, a similar 4x jump won't happen. There is plenty of margin of error available. If I had to bet, I'd go for 5x.

As you can see, the 950 pro's only advantage is the sustained write speed, where it is 23% faster.

JIZG7YI.png
320$ for 2TB, even if in 5-6 years you could get a 4TB nvme for the same price hypothetically, how do you even sell a console with it built in for 500$? It just doesn't work. They barely managed to fit in 1TB this gen and I somehow doubt they'll sell a higher model built in for the rest of the gen. You are talking about consoles that shipped with 1TB HDDs by the end of last gen.

So while you could potentially have a 4TB expansion for a console at 300-350$, it won't be part of the base package and so cannot be taken into account when building games.

So again, as I said, no, it won't happen by 2027.
 
Dec 31, 2017
1,430
That's the all-digital future. I'm talking about an innovative alternative to UHD's... Epic is clearly implying that game's that fully make use of UE5 might get ridiculously big, 300 GB might not cut it (even COD, a cross-gen launch game, is already at 200 GB).

If you read the article, you'd understand that Epic's vision of the future involves the use of servers, (yes, the infamous "power of the cloud"), because of how much of a problem storage might turn out to be.

They also admit to actively working on making their predictions of the future come true. I'm just not a fan of their vision.

I can't see Sony or anyone one else working on solutions to physical media to store all these games on (not talking about the SSD). The all-digital future is where we're heading...
But it'll mostly benefit Epic and Sony, and everyone else looking to steer gaming that way.

I want alternatives. I don't want to have to be online to play all of my games. I don't want to pay for whatever service they'll come up with in order to stream my games via their cloud-service...

They seem to have made a fantastic engine. Being able to stream essentially whatever you want in real-time is incredibly innovative. I'll give them that... But they're not a charity. Going all-digital will mostly benefit them. Again, I want alternative solutions to play my games on.
If you use cloud streaming the you fix that problem. You don't have to stream insane amounts of data, only the 4K stream as everything else is done locally and won't cause latency issues.
 

Firmus_Anguis

Member
Oct 30, 2017
6,123
If you use cloud streaming the you fix that problem. You don't have to stream insane amounts of data, only the 4K stream as everything else is done locally and won't cause latency issues.
What if I don't want to have to use it? That's the thing... There might not be other alternatives that they're working on. Which in a way, honestly sucks. We'll see how it goes.