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Feep

Lead Designer, Iridium Studios
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
4,624
Read my edit to the post you quoted.
You clearly do not understand polling.

At that moment in time, the results of the people that particular poll asked to respond gave those exact results. But because of random chance or an unintended selection bias, there is uncertainty, also known as the margin of error. You can collect many poll results to collectively reduce the margin of error, but it is always there.

Hillary's lead shrank in those final two weeks, of that there is no doubt. The poll you linked in no way implied those results would be true at the time of the election.

538, which uses a model that combines many polls, gave Hillary about a 76 percent chance of winning on election day.

You'll note that the number was not one hundred percent.

Again, please educate yourself on this matter.
 

Stooge

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
11,338
One thing that can happen now is a lot of the things tied up in court, like whether witnesses defying subpoenas have to testify, can now be made by Chief Justice Roberts in the trial. Chuck Schumer has already indicated that Roberts will be asked to make a decision on several evidence and witnesses that is not being turned over.

That only works if the Dems get to ask questions.
 

Yerffej

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,806
You clearly do not understand polling.

At that moment in time, the results of the people that particular poll asked to respond gave those exact results. But because of random chance or an unintended selection bias, there is uncertainty, also known as the margin of error. You can collect many poll results to collectively reduce the margin of error, but it is always there.

Hillary's lead shrank over time, of that there is no doubt. The poll you linked in no way implied those results would be true at the time of the election.

Again, please educate yourself on this matter.
Wasting your time on him.
 

Con_Smith

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
574
I hope they don't even punt to the senate. Get a fresh round of impeachable offenses up and let's get this party started again.
 

nintendoman58

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,119
Because thats when the last Presidential election was and polls were wrong. You brought up polls and 2018. Which have 0 change on Trump.
You think those "Dem" voters are showing up 4 years later, when they didnt show up to win the Senate? You think people magically smartened up and arent falling for fake Facebook ads and onion articles? Same dumb people voting for the same interests against themselves.

Read the thread of evidence outside your group of like minded people.

People dont care enough to educate themselves on what impeachment actually means or what Trump actually did. These people think collusion is illegal. These people think the Mueller Report exonerated Trump because Republican news is louder than the facts.

You expect them to vote for Biden, the guy tied into impeachment because Republicans made it the narrative?

Come back to reality. It aint happening if Biden is the nominee

You're the one that needs to come back to reality here.

They didn't win the Senate this year because the seats that were up for re-election in the Senate were in states that heavily shifted red and was the worst map for the Dems in years. The entire House was up for re-election all over the country.

The fact of the matter is there are more Dem voters than Trump voters because Dems outnumbered them by showing up in 2018! Not just in 2018, in all sorts of special elections in districts where Trump won by crazy numbers. Just because Trump wasn't on the ballot doesn't mean Trump supporters weren't energized to vote then!

Currently, Biden is beating Trump by around 6 or 7 points as of now, including in swing states. Things may change and his support may drop sure, he might not even be the nominee! But as of now if Biden is, it's not looking good for Trump!

No data shows that things are currently good for Trump. His support has always been the same, terrible level since his presidency started.
 

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,075
You clearly do not understand polling.

At that moment in time, the results of the people that particular poll asked to respond gave those exact results. But because of random chance or an unintended selection bias, there is uncertainty, also known as the margin of error. You can collect many poll results to collectively reduce the margin of error, but it is always there.

Hillary's lead shrank in those final two weeks, of that there is no doubt. The poll you linked in no way implied those results would be true at the time of the election.

538, which uses a model that combines many polls, gave Hillary about a 76 percent chance of winning on election day.

You'll note that the number was not one hundred percent.

Again, please educate yourself on this matter.
Waste of time. They are being willfully obtuse. It's sad people really have no idea how this stuff works. And also have no idea how slim trumps margins were in 2016 and how easily nearly any democrat that runs against him could win with just a minor tweak in strategy and learn from the Clinton campaign mistakes.
 

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,075
You're the one that needs to come back to reality here.

They didn't win the Senate this year because the seats that were up for re-election in the Senate were in states that heavily shifted red and was the worst map for the Dems in years. The entire House was up for re-election all over the country.

The fact of the matter is there are more Dem voters than Trump voters because Dems outnumbered them by showing up in 2018! Not just in 2018, in all sorts of special elections in districts where Trump won by crazy numbers. Just because Trump wasn't on the ballot doesn't mean Trump supporters weren't energized to vote then!

Currently, Biden is beating Trump by around 6 or 7 points as of now, including in swing states. Things may change and his support may drop sure, he might not even be the nominee! But as of now if Biden is, it's not looking good for Trump!

No data shows that things are currently good for Trump. His support has always been the same, terrible level since his presidency started.

yeah I'm not sure why they are so obsessed with Biden anyway it's so odd. Nearly a paper bag democrat at this early in the game is polling better that trump.
And a majority of this country did vote the other way and trump won on margins of 1% in two states and like 3% in another. And if 2018 is any indication he's toast in 2020 if turnout remained about the same.
 

Skel1ingt0n

Member
Oct 28, 2017
8,890
Holy shit there's a lot of shade being thrown in this thread from what strikes me as people on the same side. So much hostility.
 

Chie Satonaka

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,649
I'm getting really fucking tired of this "doing your job handed him a second term" bullshit, and I'm saying this as someone who already thinks he was going to get a second term regardless.
 
Oct 28, 2017
4,970
The fundamental advantage Biden has over Clinton - who lost by a combined few hundred thousand votes over several states - is that he's a white male and not possibly the most hated woman in modern day politics.

Like, I don't like the guy at all. But he has several things that Clinton could never hope to achieve. Trump obviously has a chance of beating Biden but that would assume Trump is going to improve his on 2016 results after he's essentially become a known quantity and not that nebulous guy who can be anything you want him to be.
 

Deleted member 17092

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
20,360
Yeah totally let's blame the dems for I'm not sure what exactly instead of spineless republican senators.

Please.
 

residentgrigo

Banned
Oct 30, 2019
3,726
Germany
Watch him come out of this stronger than he was before and get another 4 years. And I mean this. He will win again while losing the majority vote. Again.
Trump is a pedophile, a rapist and a racist but the US more than deserves him. He is the 21st-century capitalism made flesh.

Here is how our Tagesschau state media took the news today. "Historically ineffective... and may harm democracy". That´s how little faith the German news has in the US justice system. I agree.
 

Quantum Leap

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,988
California
This thread needs to be shut down. People just acting like assholes now. I swear Era going off the rails.
giphy.gif

you obviously didn't watch the asshole republican children during the impeachment earlier.
 

Exellus

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
2,348
The fundamental advantage Biden has over Clinton - who lost by a combined few hundred thousand votes over several states - is that he's a white male and not possibly the most hated woman in modern day politics.

Like, I don't like the guy at all. But he has several things that Clinton could never hope to achieve.

This is what I'm saying.

In what metric is Biden less electable or popular than Hillary? In what metric is Trump more electable or popular than he was in 2016?

Other than being an incumbent, he's less popular now than ever. And Biden is MORE popular than Hillary.
 

ak1287

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
1,935
You need me to point out all the people attacking each other in this thread? Why? It's right there.
I mean, the fact that people in this thread are shitty garbage is not, in my mind, a good enough reason to shut it down.
I'm generally a proponent of de-platforming, but in this case I think it's better to mercilessly mock Awesome Kev and efr.
 

Deleted member 2533

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,325
In 3 months the senate finds Donald J Trump not guilty. That becomes his ammunition for the election.

He wins 2020.

"The House fails to draft articles of impeachment. That becomes ammunition for the election."
"The House fails to pass articles of impeachment. That becomes ammunition for the election."

Is anything not ammunition for Trump?
 

data

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,833
You need me to point out all the people attacking each other in this thread? Why? It's right there.
A lot of it is basically people not willing to listen to each other's argument and potentially concern trolling. Look at their posting history.

It's a common thing. Just ignore it.

For now, celebrate that impeachment happened even when it is expected and Trump's funny reactions and Twitter outburst.
 

Captjohnboyd

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,569
I appreciate the argument in favor of the impeachment and why it's important but do we really need to threadmark "Donald's totally gonna get re-elected"
 

Xx 720

Member
Nov 3, 2017
3,920
This is what I'm saying.

In what metric is Biden less electable or popular than Hillary? In what metric is Trump more electable or popular than he was in 2016?

Other than being an incumbent, he's less popular now than ever. And Biden is MORE popular than Hillary.
Unfortunately, the senate will not vote him out, this will be something he will spin as an acquittal and will use on the campaign. I just pray we don't lose the House.
 
Oct 28, 2017
4,970
This is what I'm saying.

In what metric is Biden less electable or popular than Hillary? In what metric is Trump more electable or popular than he was in 2016?

Other than being an incumbent, he's less popular now than ever. And Biden is MORE popular than Hillary.

If the argument that election interference from a foreign entity is going to steal the election or something, it literally doesn't matter if the Dems went for impeachment or not then or who they choose as their candidate.

I don't even think this impeachment means anything but it find it strange that there's so much corn cobbing right now.