It's not a misnomer when it's describing the voting behavior of a subset of Bernie's 2016 coalition! These are people for whom Bernie really isn't ideologically aligned (his current 2020 coalition is wildly different in makeup because it's shed so many of these types) and who backed him primarily because he wasn't Hillary. He massively benefitted from few people wanting to challenge the person who had Obama's blessing because it allowed him access to voters which he normally wouldn't be able to pick up.
There is always a correct bet to make here.
I found this with a quick search:
I mean, he's got the lowest share of the >49 vote, ~15% less than other front runners. So even if the young vote turns out greater than usual by large margins he's still losing the consistently largest voting demo by tons more than he's willing the young vote.
Yep. I remember the posts from the old forum that fueled my belief that there was no chance of a Trump upset.
You can't win a primary election on young people. You expect young people to be excited about a guy in 4th place? He is quickly getting that stench of yesterdays news. It isn't 2016 anymore.
Yup I expect the same actually. It will be implicit and won't be seen in the polls, I think. It will defang many of the 'she is a woman' subconscious biases that unfortunately still permeates in the electorate whether they want to admit it or not.
What type of voter cares about Trump's legal issues but might not enough to turn out and vote against him unless it's specifically a cop replacing him?
It's time to unskew some meaningless polls.
Peter Daou ✔
@peterdaou
Interesting. This new ABC/WaPo poll looks very different from the most recent CNN poll, and undercuts the perception that the Sanders campaign is fading. https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1146359918460583936 …
ABC News Politics ✔
@ABCPolitics
Replying to @ABCPolitics
JUST IN: New abc News/WaPo poll of 2020 Democratic primary:
Biden - 29%
Sanders - 23%
Harris - 11%
Warren - 11%
Buttigieg - 4%
Castro - 4%
Klobuchar - 2%
O'Rourke - 2%
Others < 2%
Sanders make up is looking pretty good. It kind of explains why a lot of his supporters second choice is Biden. There's a lot of black support for Biden. I think Sanders has the most to gain as Biden continues tanking.
Nothing wrong with fawning over Warren...
Bernie's pollster. This is fine. Everything is fine.
Great idea but it's not going to happen (edit: see above post). There are many people who absolutely will not vote for Biden. And to a lesser extent there are people who will not vote for Sanders and so on. They probably won't say that here on Resetera, but I imagine it is the case.
Nah. All the polls show the same thing, that the debates have had a strong positive effect for Harris and a negative one for Biden and Sanders. The only difference really is in the degrees, which is to be expected from pollster to pollster.
Right I just mean people will look at whatever they want to look at and take away from that whatever they want to see. Harris absolutely killed in the debate, no question. She did a great job. Anything that takes Biden down at this point is a great thing.
