Whatever it takes to make sure black folks are more miserable than them.
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According to 538's Current Election Forecast As of Sept 28th, If Trump Loses PA. His Chances of Winning are essentially over.
- Thread starter platocplx
- Start date
Unfortunately yes. How anyone can be 'undecided' at this point is mind boggling but it is what it is.
There's also a couple third party candidates apparently. I recently saw the name "Jorgensen" on sample ballots. Whoever the hell that is, I have no idea lol.
Trump promised Coal was somehow magically coming back under him. For a lot of people in West PA they'd sacrifice their firstborn to have that dead fucking industry back.
I do know some people out there have over the years finally opened their eyes to see the lying sack of shit Trump is, I just hope it's enough.
All depends on how the Philly burbs turnout, like it always does in PA politics.
And Biden is winning it 54-30
this dude is literally every 60s/70s guy in PA lol. he's gonna win seniors and that will be the difference.
he's a native son compared to HRC which will matter. Pennsyltucky will go hard, but there's not enough vote there no matter if turnout is 10000%
PA overall is a pretty liberal/moderate state, except for the crazies in the middle who are far-right. Before Trump, it had gone reliably Blue for many, many years.
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I think that's the Libertarian candidate, who likely siphons disenfranchised Republicans away from Trump.
Also seen some Bernie -> Jorgensen people, but like...maybe two people.
Crosstabs are here.
Basic summary is that the 11% consists of 2% voting Libertarian, 8% undecided, and negligible (but non-zero) amounts of people voting for someone else or not voting.
I've lived here all my life. I know the people around me. I know how my area voted in the past. A Republican hasn't won my county since 1984, and that includes Trump. But it was fucking close, something like a 15 point R swing, and he did win my town which, again, hadn't happened in decades. His supporters here ARE enthusiastic, yes, but there's also a lot more of them then any other R candidate has had in my lifetime. The proof was obvious on election day in 2016; I went into my usual polling place early in the morning before work, and the line was out the door, which was insane. I'm talking 5x the normal turnout at that time. Given everything the GOP had done to assassinate Hillary's character, I knew that it wasn't for her, and the results reflected that; somehow, in this extremely blue collar coal mining town that isn't more then 10 minutes from Scranton where she had so many ties (hell, one of my aunts took care of her parents grave for years), Trump won.
Now, I'm not saying that any of the physical evidence shows an uptick in Trump support, and yes, I realized that the 2020 election landscape is very different from 2016, but at the very least, Trump has held onto the majority of people that he won over back then in my area. The difference, which I pointed out, is that I am seeing far more Biden signs then what Hillary had. People are much more enthused with Biden this time around; the same yards that were blank are now clearly displaying support. One way or the other, people are more into this race then any I've seen in the past.
Lackawanna stayed blue but the margin shrunk tremendously, and Luzerne went red, so I can agree that it may have tipped the state over the edge. I'm more hopeful this time around, though, as there's a lot more Dem energy this time around. I don't feel like there's been an uptick in Trump supporters, just Trump support, if that makes any sense. The same voices are just louder; hell there's a Trump merch tent that just popped up next to my workplace. But the Blue support does feel greater, and speaking with people has me thinking there won't be any reluctance on Dem voters to stay silent this time.
I've seen quite a few, but I imagine they were neverBidens so I'm not too fussed.
Same here and that is my experience, no Trump signs at all. Not a lot of Biden signs either but people don't wear their political affiliation on there sleeves around here.
I think Biden is going to take PA
I think every state has their hicks. The rural/city divide seems to grow more and more pronounced, even as you would think technology and access to transportation would decrease the pressures that drive the divide.
It's possible, but I think it's way less likely than you think. If only because he needs everyone involved to be not only complicit but commit crimes themselves, and should they get caught/fail it's gonna be felony election interference if not worse for everyone involved. Now, within Trump's White House, that might just fall under business as usual, but to actually pull this off across all the bodies needed to steal the election without worrying about whistleblowing would be pretty miraculous. He might as well have a coup if he actually had the power to do that.
I don't think I understand the criticism here, stats nerd made a business out of being a stat nerd.This is part of it.
The Fall of Nate Silver
His data journalism blog, FiveThirtyEight, is a political website with no politics—or rather, no politics beyond a mute approval of the status quo.newrepublic.com
Is the complaint that he isn't using his platform to advance political ideals?
Vote! Lives and democracy in the US (and around the world) literally depend on it.
It's clear that Trump isn't planning on "winning" by conventional means anymore. It will be a long fight in courts and it will be an opinion war.
This must be a blowout vote in order to drag this fascist out of the WH.
It's clear that Trump isn't planning on "winning" by conventional means anymore. It will be a long fight in courts and it will be an opinion war.
This must be a blowout vote in order to drag this fascist out of the WH.
Keep in mind. That picture is a VERY small portion of PA's population.So he's gonna lose then.
But the crowds of Trump supporters in PA scares me.
That's what the blurb associated with the link would suggest, but the article actually itemizes several trash opinions that Silver has apparently shared.
Just the far-left yet again shooting the messenger and its own knee, business as usual.
Nate Silver is fantastic.
No third parties in PA this time around. A couple of Dem's fought the addition due to some procedural stuff and won.
Edit...wait, Libertarian, yeah he might still be on, but that takes away from Trump. The Green candidate was pulled from the ballot.
OP
OP
On that note, Fmr. PA governor, and Fmr. Homeland Security Secretary, Tom Ridge, came out yesterday to endorse Biden over Trump.
He's a Republican.
He's a Republican.
One ill portent out of that otherwise great poll is that Biden leads 75-18 among voters who have requested an absentee ballot, while Trump leads by 8 among voters who have not done so.
That's why I'm really hoping Biden wins Florida. They count their mail-in ballots early and will likely be able to declare a winner on election night itself without a drawn-out counting process. If it's impossible for Trump to win without PA, it's inconceivable that he wins without Florida.
That's why I'm really hoping Biden wins Florida. They count their mail-in ballots early and will likely be able to declare a winner on election night itself without a drawn-out counting process. If it's impossible for Trump to win without PA, it's inconceivable that he wins without Florida.
No Green Party according to Ballotpedia and the news I've been seeing. I should have my mail-in ballot in a couple of days, so I could confirm then. The lawsuit actually held up the printing and mailing process.
Edit: Looks like Libertarian was 150K in 2016, and Green + others was 120K. So hopefully the Libertarian votes stay the same, and the others go to Biden.
I live in western PA and can tell you that pretty much everything north of Pittsburgh is Trump signs everywhere and Trump 2020 painted on the side of buildings. Can't say I've even seen a Biden sign in months. There's a lot of "Support the police" signs too and probably about twice a week I get a letter in the mail from the local PD asking to donate money for BP vests.
You know Oogie Boogie would have been the Trump to Jack Skellington's Biden
I don't think they were wrong iirc, they just had Trump at a low percentage chance of winning. A low percentage chance is still a chance, as we unfortunately found out.
Not really, they gave her higher odds of losing to Trump than any other prognosticator.
they were spooky accurate every other election. after 2012 nate even thought about shutting it down because it could negatively affect democracy at some point
2016 statistically speaking will probably be the weirdest election of our lifetime and then some
538 was one of the only places that was relatively close.
IIRC, They said she had a 70 percent chance of winning on election night, which was more reasonable than the 90-99 percents other places were throwing around. They caught flack for it too.
reporting you for clear voter fraud!!!!!!!!!!
Real talk, do these models factor in the rampant election fuckery going on? All the disenfranchisement. Covid?
I'm concerned because I don't think the electoral map is going to change much if at all.
Michigan will probably go back to blue, Wisconsin is a tossup, but I don't see how Biden wins Pennsylvania. Without PA I don't think there is anyway to do it, the next most likely state is Arizona but that would be a 269-269 tie and a Trump victory.
Michigan will probably go back to blue, Wisconsin is a tossup, but I don't see how Biden wins Pennsylvania. Without PA I don't think there is anyway to do it, the next most likely state is Arizona but that would be a 269-269 tie and a Trump victory.
1 in 5 is still a shot though. The current model now bakes in race tightening the further out from the election it is to counteract it. So now Trump's chances are like 12.5% if they released it.
What people are absolutely wrong about is when they say polls are wrong. The polls in 2016 had the states where Trump one was tossups or barely leading hillary. This time Biden is up 7-10% in michigan, wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota.
I think only disenfranchisement at best might be factored in. There's no reason for them to factor in fuckery or COVID.
A good thing to keep in mind is the fact that winning PA says a lot about how a candidate is performing nation-wide with certain demographics.
If he loses PA, it means he has lost those demos he would need to win other states. It's not just about what PA's actual votes does for the EC total.
So it's good to encourage voting everywhere, and PA is a very important state for this election, but it's not just about winning the state, it's about winning the kind of people nation-wide that determine a victory in PA.
If he loses PA, it means he has lost those demos he would need to win other states. It's not just about what PA's actual votes does for the EC total.
So it's good to encourage voting everywhere, and PA is a very important state for this election, but it's not just about winning the state, it's about winning the kind of people nation-wide that determine a victory in PA.
Pennsylvania : President: general election Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
Seems he's doing alright sure not as big a gap as I'd like to see
Not really; people just confounded Trump having a low chance of victory with having no chance of victory, and then got whiplash when he actually pulled a win. That's why, while this is certainly good news, it's nothing to celebrate quite yet as he still has a chance, and we already know through experience that a chance is enough for him to win again.
How is Wisconsin a toss-up? Biden's leading by double digits.
The poster said Wisconsin is a toss-up, and Biden has consistently polled ahead by like 11 or 12 points. I wouldn't take them very seriously.
+9 is great for today. I see that sticking.Pennsylvania : President: general election Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Seems he's doing alright sure not as big a gap as I'd like to see
If anything, 2016 vindicated the 538 model. Nate gave Trump a better chance than anybody else did, and Trump only won the election because some very specific places swung his way. Trump's victory was a fluke and 538 accounts for flukes. 70% ain't 100%.
undecideds are quite high in that poll, so gonna lean on +9 being a bit on the high side.
Definitely. I just honestly think instead of tightening towards the election with Trump, we're gonna see the opposite. Based off his home state and recent tax news.
Crossing fingers. I have had PA's 538 page up on refresh for two weeks now lol