Plum

Member
May 31, 2018
17,729
UPDATE 1: Added 2023 nominations and changed relevant data.
So the day has come for all this data to finally be a bit useful! I've updated the table and (relevant) data to include the 2023 nominations, ready to be updated further when the winners come in:

gameawards-GOTYanalysis2023updated.png


Oh, and I don't think Alan Wake 2 will win, but editing borders in Excel is a pain in the arse so I left the 'GOTY Winner' dashed line there.

So some highlights:
  • 2023 has the highest average OC score of every year!
  • The sheer domination of 3rd Person and/or Action-Adventure games only grows larger, unsurprisingly.
  • Nintendo is now the most-nominated developer and nearly the most-nominated publisher. Of course Nintendo as a 'developer' is many teams, but I'm just going by what they're advertised as.
  • Mad congratulations to Larian for being the only newcomer in either publisher or nomination this year!
  • Baldur's Gate 3's platform and MC review situation is definitely a weird one, as it hasn't really 'fully' finished with either yet.
So, yeah. Bring on the awards!

If you care to read it, here's a bit of a disclaimer first:

I made this because I enjoyed doing so. Frankly, I got a bit overwhelmed with games like Starfield, Baldur's Gate 3 and Armored Core VI all vying for my attention, so with multiple long Youtube videos to catch up on in the background, I figured I'd do something else I enjoy doing. Which, in this case, was making a mostly-useless breakdown of a statistic most people won't care about. This isn't new for me. When Nintendo was taking their sweet time putting out a Direct in 2019/2020, I created a big-ass unnecessary table detailing just how much Nintendo was taking their time. A table immortalised in an old GameXplain video here. So, please, I'd ask that you don't question whether I was 'OK' in making this, because frankly it was really relaxing for me to do. The alternative was probably just mindless Tik-Tok scrolling anyway.

As for the subject matter, this isn't any attempt to comment on who I personally want to win at this year's GOTYs, or disregard anyone's favourite genre or games. It is merely a statistical look at the types of games that get nominated for, or win, the GOTY award at The Game Awards. What kinds of games they are, what platforms they're on, who they're made by, and so on. If you're wondering, I think Baldur's Gate 3 is likely going to take the win this year.

Also, feel free to use this whenever you want in the future if you, say, are betting on who might win, or are wanting to win an internet argument :)


So, without further ado:

I have created a comprehensive table detailing a number of key statistics surrounding the games which have won/been nominated for the GOTY Awards at Geoff Keighley's yearly event, The Game Awards. The table can be seen below:

gameawards-GOTYanalysis.png


Some explanations for why I made things the way they were:
  • I used OpenCritic scores as they collate all the platforms together under one number, making my job a fair bit easier. Whilst many titles on the list have received ports in their futures (e.g. God of War, Horizon Zero Dawn), they generally did not affect the OC score to a considerable degree. That is with the sole exception of PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds, whose atrocious late 2018 Xbox One port plummeted its 86 OC score to a 77. In that case, I decided to stick with the game's original PC review scores.
  • For the same reason, I chose to use MC review counts for the 'No. of Reviews' field. The Game Awards Jury, of course, can only vote on the game as it was in the year of its release, so only counting the reviews for the platforms found within the year of launch (mostly at launch, with the exception of MH: World's late PC Port) made sense. Same logic applies for why I only counted the 1st year platforms in that column.
  • Whilst I personally disagreed with some of them (e.g. Bayonetta 2 being 'Action Adventure') I felt that Wikipedia was the most 'objective' place to take genres from.
  • The GOTY Consensus Date is based on https://www.gameawards.net/ for pre-2021. Didn't really need to look at 2022 because, well, it's Elden Ring.
  • In the case of Smash Ultimate's 'Perspective', I chose 'Fighter' instead of 2D as I felt that collating a 2D Fighter with Side-Scrolling Platformers/Metroidvanias wasn't the right way to look at it.
If you'd like more explanations, feel free to ask!

Now... what can we discern from this? Well, there's a couple of key points I took away:
  • When it comes to the genre and perspectives found in GOTY nominees/winners, 3rd Person Action Adventure games are overwhelming in how much they dominant the nominee lists.
  • Unsurprisingly, multiplat games are dominant in terms of nominations, with Playstation exclusives and Switch exclusives coming 2nd and 3rd respectively. Unfortunately, no Xbox (or, later, Xbox/PC) exclusives saw any nominations. Perhaps we'll see the first with Starfield this year.
  • FromSoftware is a beast of a developer, with 4 nominations and the title of being the only development team to take home 2 GOTY wins
  • Sony Interactive Entertainment is a beast of a publisher, with a wide lead in the amount of nominations they've recieved for their games.
  • An OC ranking of 88 is by far the most common ranking for nominees. So... if your review thread ends up with an '88', you can be happy knowing that such a score is still objectively "GOTY nominee," material.
  • Generally, what The Game Awards picks for their GOTY is both the same as the consensus, and different from that year's highest scorer. This could be explained by the genre discrepancies seen above; of the 8 disrepancies, 6 are of games in genres and platforms not commonly seen within the nominee/winner pools (Racing, VR, Horror, Platforming, Indie RPG, Fighting).
  • It is rare that the game with the fewest reviews on MC gets the win, implying a correlation between how many reviewers dealt with a game, and its likelihood to win/be nominated. The exception being It Takes Two.
  • Every GOTY winner, unsurprisingly, also wins in its dedicated genre categories as well. However, being nominated for GOTY does not guarantee a category win.
Any other things you want to add? Or want to discuss? Comment below! If you've got this far, thanks for taking the time to read all this nonsense :P
 
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Martinski

Member
Jan 15, 2019
8,633
Göteborg
Was really Death Stranding the consensus GOTY of 2019? If so that and 2014 were really dire "goty years". Both are perfectly fine7/10 games for me but man are they also fucking boring as shit for the most part.

Uncharted 4 was little wack too but i can see it being popular and winning awards, cinematic good looking game with decent gameplay.
 

YaBish

Unshakable Resolve - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,576
This is pretty neat. I always think stuff like this is more fun than another "is X going to get nominated for GOTY this year?!?" thread, so thanks for making it.
 

Chaos2Frozen

Member
Nov 3, 2017
28,869
Was really Death Stranding the consensus GOTY of 2019? If so that and 2014 were really dire "goty years". Both are perfectly fine7/10 games for me but man are they also fucking boring as shit for the most part.

Uncharted 4 was little wack too but i can see it being popular and winning awards, cinematic good looking game with decent gameplay.

It's not about you though
 
Jul 2, 2021
18,818
Very strange since both Sekiro and RE2 RE was much better received, reviewed and overall much more liked.
I can see it. Sekiro was too hard for some people and RE2R was a remake.
It was a close race between Death Stranding and RE2R though.
I don't think there was a consensus, on here the GOTY publications picks were split between Death Stranding at 80 and Resident Evil 2 at 79
Yeah I know. Death Stranding took the lead with one more pick against a remake.
 

signal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
41,100
  • When it comes to the genre and perspectives found in GOTY nominees/winners, 3rd Person Action Adventure games are overwhelming in how much they dominant the nominee lists.
Would be interested to see annual data for genres / perspectives to know how much this is a 'dominates' vs. expectation due to percentage of games released that are 3rd person and/or action adventure.
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
61,349
Very interesting stuff thanks op.

the 88 OC metric feels very aptly timed
 

BlueStarEXSF

Member
Dec 3, 2018
4,814
It is rare that the game with the fewest reviews on MC gets the win, implying a correlation between how many reviewers dealt with a game, and its likelihood to win/be nominated. The exception being It Takes Two.
This is the key statement here that tells you all you need to know about TGA.
 
OP
OP
Plum

Plum

Member
May 31, 2018
17,729
Would be interested to see annual data for genres / perspectives to know how much this is a 'dominates' vs. expectation due to percentage of games released that are 3rd person and/or action adventure.
True. If I had a lot more time I could do it, but there is the big question of which games to 'count' and which games to not count. I'd definitely say that it's more a case of correlation due to the ubiquity of the 'Action Adventure' genre, instead of sheer bias towards it. Though I wouldn't definitively say it's either, given the sheer amount of factors here.
 

Doskoi Panda

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,817
Dope infographics.

This is the new GoTY tracker site, created by another Era user:

Game of the Year - Award Tracker

Here you can see the awards for the best game of the year according to different media

I like this one's UI, and the fact that it's not abandoned lol

(edited a callout out, sorry, there's no need for that)
 
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DjDeathCool

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,716
Bismarck, ND
Interesting. It seems like mostly only action adventure or action RPGs win. It'll be a weird year since Baldur's Gate 3 isn't an action RPG, but it does have that narrative style of the games that won. It really is a toss up between BG3 and TotK isn't it? Probably, TotK if for no other reason more people will likely play that game.
 
OP
OP
Plum

Plum

Member
May 31, 2018
17,729
Dope infographics.

This is the new GoTY tracker site, created by another Era user:

Game of the Year - Award Tracker

Here you can see the awards for the best game of the year according to different media

I like this one's UI, and the fact that it wasn't abandoned literally moment it was clear the owner's favored game wouldn't take 2022 lmao
Thanks! Had gone to there before but I'd forgotten about it lol. Seems like the data's the same, so no need to change things thankfully.
 

Chaos2Frozen

Member
Nov 3, 2017
28,869
All these games are great and most don't even play similarly despite people thinking all 3rd person action games are the same.

But there is a hidden(?) bias towards games made by studios of a certain level of prestige. Stuff like your Nintendo, Sony, Fromsoft, Capcom etc. You will occasionally get a true dark horse that comes out of nowhere like Stray, but in general it's Big Budget, Highly Polished, Well Marketed AAA games made by prestigious studios.

Review scores probably don't really matter unless it's overwhelmingly ahead of the competition, but then you have God of War winning one year over Red Dead 2, who got the highest MC score of that year if I didn't remember wrongly.
 

Red Kong XIX

Member
Oct 11, 2020
10,320
The consensus GOTY mostly ends up as the Game Awards winner. Don't have much doubt that this year it will be TOTK.
 
OP
OP
Plum

Plum

Member
May 31, 2018
17,729
This feels almost a little too on the nose of a statement right now.
Not gonna lie that was the intention lol

When I got the data together I did chuckle a bit that the 'most common OC score for TGA GOTY nominees' by far happened to be the one Starfield got :P

Damn, good thread, Plum.
Very interesting stuff thanks op.
This is pretty neat.
Thanks! :)
 

Jebusman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,235
Halifax, NS
It Takes Two and DA:I are the only real standout "huh?" moments for me looking through this.

2021 was just a weird year overall where games that probably should have been nominated weren't, and it feels like It Takes Two won by virtue of a split field of similarly rated games. There was no truly standout game in that nominee list, even though there were (arguably) better received games that came out that year that didn't get in the list.

2014 was dire if they put Hearthstone up there, I barely even remember that event anymore.

2015 really should have nominated Undertale, if only because TobyFox 100% would've created something specifically for the event.

Edit: Overwatch winning is really the odd-one out, in a number of ways. 1st person instead of 3rd, online/service game rather than single player experiences. I think it was deserved at the time, that game really was a return to form for Blizzard after the slow collapse of SC2 and how hard they stumbled with Diablo 3 before getting it to a good place. OW came out and just "felt" good for that kind of online hero shooter.
 
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Red Kong XIX

Member
Oct 11, 2020
10,320
It Takes Two and DA:I are the only real standout "huh?" moments for me looking through this.

2021 was just a weird year overall where games that probably should have been nominated weren't, and it feels like It Takes Two won by virtue of a split field of similarly rated games. There was no truly standout game in that nominee list, even though there were (arguably) better received games that came out that year that didn't get in the list.

2014 was dire if they put Hearthstone up there, I barely even remember that event anymore.

2015 really should have nominated Undertale, if only because TobyFox 100% would've created something specifically for the event.
Yeah, 2021 was just a mid year for games. My personal GOTY was Returnal, but would I pick it in any other year? Nope.

The only year I'm really completely not on board with The Game Awards' winner is 2016. Uncharted 4 was robbed there.
 

SigSig

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,777
Was really Death Stranding the consensus GOTY of 2019? If so that and 2014 were really dire "goty years". Both are perfectly fine7/10 games for me but man are they also fucking boring as shit for the most part.
DS being GOTY was only half about Death-Stranding-the-Game and a lot more about the context around it tbh.
 

Doskoi Panda

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,817
I don't think there was a consensus, on here the GOTY publications picks were split between Death Stranding at 80 and Resident Evil 2 at 79
The 2019 results were generally considered a 3-way tie for like a week or two at most, before an Era member stepped up with a new GoTY aggregation site, with a more complete count that ultimately favored Death Stranding overall. Death Stranding won and it deserves the recognition - it's a wonderful and unique game that captured hearts regardless of how you might feel about its quality. And the numbers don't lie. That said, gameawards.net began tracking GoTYs in 2019 and ceased tracking in 2022 - after setting up a 2022 page and aggregating results for a single day - and it's not easy to keep from speculating on that, having read some of the owner's posts here for myself. I'm gonna leave it at that though, I don't know what happened to dude and I hope he's doing okay out there.
 
OP
OP
Plum

Plum

Member
May 31, 2018
17,729
Edit: Overwatch winning is really the odd-one out, in a number of ways. 1st person instead of 3rd, online/service game rather than single player experiences. I think it was deserved at the time, that game really was a return to form for Blizzard after the slow collapse of SC2 and how hard they stumbled with Diablo 3 before getting it to a good place. OW came out and just "felt" good for that kind of online hero shooter.
It's also the only one there that was predominantly PC-focused, making it even weirder. I do think that the sheer hype and significance of that game back in 2016 was the key factor in netting it the win. I even gave it my own personal GOTY, as despite really liking Uncharted 4, Overwatch in its first year just felt amazing. Honestly a shame how much it's sorta fallen off since then.

STATS
 

UshiromiyaEva

Member
Aug 22, 2018
1,779
Very detailed sheet, I love stats like this so it's a lot to digest.

I don't agree with a lot of picks for GOTY as js but 9 years later DA:I winning that just illustrates how dire that year's mainstream offerings were (Bayo 2 was seriously robbed).

I still wish there was a little more variety in genre selection but this awards program in particular already shows some pretty clear disinterest in celebrating 'lesser' categories and genres
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
61,349
Plum An interesting additional data point may be time of release. Would be cool to see if games released towards the end of the year / cutoff are more likely to be nominated or win, perhaps due to recency bias or just coincidence as blockbusters tend to release in the summer or by the holidays.
 
OP
OP
Plum

Plum

Member
May 31, 2018
17,729
Plum An interesting additional data point may be time of release. Would be cool to see if games released towards the end of the year / cutoff are more likely to be nominated or win, perhaps due to recency bias or just coincidence as blockbusters tend to release in the summer or by the holidays.
Shit, I did actually think of that myself whilst making it but completely forgot to add it. Thanks for reminding me!

If I can find a way (or if someone tells me a way) to make a good screenshot of the table without zooming out even more I'll add it in. Currently the table can only barely fit with full-screen mode on and literally every bar disabled on Excel. I don't have any more space lol

However I will say that I have done this analysis before, just without tables and such, and found that only 1 of the 9 winners released in the latter half of the year (Dragon Age: Inquisition), so overwhelmingly it's games released earlier in the year that get the win. It'll be interesting to see the data for the nominees as well though.
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
61,349
Shit, I did actually think of that myself whilst making it but completely forgot to add it. Thanks for reminding me!

If I can find a way (or if someone tells me a way) to make a good screenshot of the table without zooming out even more I'll add it in. Currently the table can only barely fit with full-screen mode on and literally every bar disabled on Excel. I don't have any more space lol

However I will say that I have done this analysis before, just without tables and such, and found that only 1 of the 9 winners released in the latter half of the year (Dragon Age: Inquisition), so overwhelmingly it's games released earlier in the year that get the win. It'll be interesting to see the data for the nominees as well though.
maybe take two screenshots and stitch them together in Paint or photopea.com or something? not the most elegant solution but im not well versed in Excel capturing haha.

If it is earlier games that get the win, I think TOTK then may have the edge up over BG3 :p (though it's obviously not a conclusive thing!). I would have thought titles releasing sooner are fresher on the mind and would be slightly favored. Interesting.
 

Red Kong XIX

Member
Oct 11, 2020
10,320
Plum An interesting additional data point may be time of release. Would be cool to see if games released towards the end of the year / cutoff are more likely to be nominated or win, perhaps due to recency bias or just coincidence as blockbusters tend to release in the summer or by the holidays.
Looking at the Game Awards winners, I don't think recency bias is present at all. All games released in the first half of their respective year, except for Dragon Age Inquisition.
 
Added Release Date Column & Data
OP
OP
Plum

Plum

Member
May 31, 2018
17,729
vixolus Just added the release date column/data and updated the OP with the new image :)

Seems like there isn't a massive correlation between release date and nominations. The most interesting thing to see is that games released in the last 3rd of the TGA's 'award year' (Dec-Nov) count for a majority - 42% - of the total nominations, yet only 1 of the wins.
 
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MadZero

Member
Oct 28, 2017
535
Great Analysis! Really interesting.

Definietly will be taken into account in the eventual GOTY 2023 (TOTK vs BG3)) avatar bet thread lol
 

Unknownlight

One Winged Slayer
Member
Nov 2, 2017
11,021
vixolus Just added the release date column/data and updated the OP with the new image :)

Seems like there isn't a massive correlation between release date and nominations. The most interesting thing to see is that games released in the last 3rd of the TGA's 'award year' (Dec-Nov) count for a majority - 42% - of the total nominations, yet only 1 of the wins.
That's a funny stat. One interpretation is that when outlets send in their nomination lists, they only really care about a couple of games (the ones they would actually vote for GotY), and then the rest of the list is just filler, whatever comes to mind easily.
 

Haze

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,229
Detroit, MI
Was really Death Stranding the consensus GOTY of 2019? If so that and 2014 were really dire "goty years". Both are perfectly fine7/10 games for me but man are they also fucking boring as shit for the most part.

Uncharted 4 was little wack too but i can see it being popular and winning awards, cinematic good looking game with decent gameplay.

Nah 2019 was an all-time year
 

NotLiquid

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
35,939
vixolus Just added the release date column/data and updated the OP with the new image :)

Seems like there isn't a massive correlation between release date and nominations. The most interesting thing to see is that games released in the last 3rd of the TGA's 'award year' (Dec-Nov) count for a majority - 42% - of the total nominations, yet only 1 of the wins.
Tim Rogers has theorized in the past that most games that get GOTY awards are usually those that release in the first half of the year, primarily because critics have a lot of games to play, critics don't get the chance to play and review every game, and it takes a long time to beat games, so the ones that stick with them are the ones that they've had a long time to digest.

If you look at both census GOTYs and Keighleys, this is usually true. The exceptions tend to be years that the mainstream argue as "down" years like 2019 and 2014, where none of the big nominees are the traditional prestige/must-play titles.
 

Martinski

Member
Jan 15, 2019
8,633
Göteborg
Nah 2019 was an all-time year

Well I still think Death Stranding is a poor consensus goty game compared to the competition in 2019. RE 2 remake, Control, Sekiro, Disco Elysium would've been all better choices imo. Sekiro would've been my personal pick tho a solid 9.5/10 game for me. Kinda goated and awesome gameplay and combat.. played through it a bunch of times and platinumed it.

But I wouldn't rank 2019 as an all timer year .. it was pretty solid but this year is much much better and one of the all timers.
 

Jaded Alyx

Member
Oct 25, 2017
37,119
I lost a huge amount of interest in the awards themselves after nonsense like Sifu being nominated for Best Fighting Game and a beta winning that award in the same year.