Venezuela to hold referendum that "authorizes" annexation of 2/3 of neighboring English-speaking Guyana

[SFLUFAN]

Venezuela to hold referendum on seizing part of Guyana — and its oil

Vote on annexing 160,000 sq km of jungle has prompted concerns in the region

www.ft.com

Caracas has for over 200 years claimed rights over Essequibo, a vast swath of the territory of neighbouring Guyana. But only now has it opted to hold a referendum among Venezuelans on taking over the 160,000 sq km of land.

The heightened interest in the expanse of Amazon jungle springs in part from its resource riches, including offshore oil deposits that have since 2019 made Guyana the world's fastest-growing economy. Another reason lies closer to home for Venezuela's strongman leader Nicolás Maduro: elections next year.

The potential for Venezuela, an ally of Russia, to follow the referendum with an incursion into Western-leaning Guyana has raised concerns in the region. Brazil this week said it had increased the military presence in its northern areas, which border both countries.

"On Sunday December 3 we will respond to the provocations of Exxon, the US Southern Command, and the president of Guyana with a people's vote," Maduro said during a broadcast of his weekly television programme on November 20.

Guyana fears that the referendum may be a pretext for a land grab, and has appealed to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to halt the referendum — a move that Caracas has rejected, though its claim to the land is largely internationally unrecognised.

"This is a textbook example of annexation," Paul Reichler, an American lawyer representing Guyana before the ICJ, said in The Hague earlier this month, claiming that Venezuela is preparing a military build-up in the Essequibo region in case it wishes to enforce the outcome of the referendum.
Caracas said that its troops are carrying out anti-illegal mining operations near the territory, a sparsely populated region that is home to around 200,000 Guyanese who speak English and indigenous languages, though little Spanish.

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In Brazil, local media reported that a senator for the state of Roraima said the defence minister had agreed to his requests for military reinforcements in the municipality of Pacaraima, a strategic location for access to Essequibo.

The defence ministry said: "Defence actions have been intensified in the northern border region of the country, promoting a greater military presence."

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The World Court in the Hague has ordered Venezuela to refrain from any action that would "alter the current situation on the ground":

World Court orders Venezuela to refrain from action in border dispute with Guyana

Judges at the World Court on Friday ordered Venezuela to refrain from taking any action that would alter the situation on the ground in a potentially oil-rich territory that is the subject of a border dispute with Guyana, which controls the area.

www.reuters.com

Judges at the World Court on Friday ordered Venezuela to refrain from taking any action that would alter the current situation on the ground in a potentially oil-rich territory that is the subject of a border dispute with Guyana, which controls the area.

The court did not expressly forbid Venezuela to hold its planned Dec. 3 referendum over its rights to the region around the Esequibo river, the subject of the long-running border dispute, as Guyana has requested.

However, judges made it clear that any concrete action to alter the status quo should be stopped.

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Brazil has increased military readiness at its northern border:

Brazil increases northern border military presence amid Venezuela-Guyana spat -ministry

Brazil "has intensified defensive actions" along its northern border as it monitors a territorial dispute between its neighbors, Guyana and Venezuela, the country's defense ministry said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

Brazil "has intensified defensive actions" along its northern border as it monitors a territorial dispute between its neighbors, Guyana and Venezuela, the country's defense ministry said on Wednesday.

"The Ministry of Defense has been monitoring the situation. Defensive actions have been intensified in the northern border region of the country, promoting a greater military presence," it said in a statement.

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[jett]

Just what we needed. Fuck me. I hope this goes nowhere somehow.

 

[uncredited male mk2]

US has backed Guyana on this (cause oil) so this is hopefully just election posturing from Maduro.

 

[TaySan]

The last thing we need is another war :/

 

[Tomasoares]

Here's the gdp graph for guyana:

Guyana GDP

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Guyana was worth 15.36 billion US dollars in 2022, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of Guyana represents 0.01 percent of the world economy. This page provides - Guyana GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart...

tradingeconomics.com

Maduro do really want that oil, I hope that Lula and other left leaders in latam, which has been supporting Maduro no matter what, don't endorse this.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

Its weird because thats not the only territorial dispute that dates back to English colonialism in Latin America, another one is Guatemala wanting 2 thirds of current Belize territory.

I think Colombia only signed a treaty ending their territorial disputes with Jamaica in the 90s

 

[PumpkinPieAddict]

This likely doesn't become anything just because most of the international oil corporations already have their pockets deeply invested in Guyanese politics. The US additionally has an eye on the area.

There's a lot of saber rattling from Venezuela.

It's not Guyana v Venezuela. It would be the international oil corporations and various beneficiary nations vs Venezuela for posturing.

Edit: Forgot to mention China also has invested interest in Guyana.

 

[404LinkNotFound]

This likely doesn't become anything just because most of the international oil corporations already have their pockets deeply invested in Guyanese politics. The US additionally has an eye on the area.

There's a lot of saber rattling from Venezuela.

It's not Guyana v Venezuela. It would be the international oil corporations and various beneficiary nations vs Venezuela for posturing.

Edit: Forgot to mention China also has invested interest in Guyana.

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Guayna is also part is the regional security system since last year which is a miltary alliance of various CARICOM countries. Now our armies arent like big or very formidable but itd have to matter for something lol

Regional Security System - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[JCG]

This is such a transparently populist move, especially since unresolved territorial claims can be quite dangerous if left to irresponsible hands.

 

[poklane]

Doubt anything will actually happen, fat chance that the US will allow a forceful change of borders in its backyard, especially by a Russian-backed dictator. If Venezuela actually invades, which once again I doubt they will, they'll likely be visited by the US Navy.

 

[WereSalamander]

Doesn't Venezuela already have a ton of oil?

 

[Koukalaka]

Doesn't Venezuela already have a ton of oil?

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Massive oil reserves, which have been hideously squandered through decades of corruption and mismanagement.

 

[SFLUFAN]

Doesn't Venezuela already have a ton of oil?

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The largest oil reserves in the world, even edging out Saudi Arabia.

 

[RocknRola]

Props for innovation. First time in modern democracy a referendum is used to """"decide"""" an invasion (really, it's just gonna be an excuse to spin it as the will of the people, votes are 100% rigged as we speak).


Unfortunately it seems like more turmoil is coming to that part of the world…

 

[Alucrid]

Doesn't Venezuela already have a ton of oil?

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yes but their ability to produce it is in pretty poor shape

 

[Zip]

If anything actually happens as a result of this, it's probably part of Putin's plan to stretch out the west/U.S. by giving them too many crises to deal with at once. Each situation like this reduces aid that can reach Ukraine by eating up supplies and attention.

As long as Russia/Putin can press on in Ukraine, this will get worse globally. The West already fucked up by not responding to Russia by kicking military production into high gear.

 

[Veliladon]

The largest oil reserves in the world, even edging out Saudi Arabia.

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Yeah but it's all heavy and sour.

 

[SFLUFAN]

Yeah but it's all heavy and sour.

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According to this, Guyana's oil is of the preferred light/sweet variety:

Just how good is Guyana’s crude oil? | OilNOW

Following ExxonMobil’s commercial discovery at the giant Liza field in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana in 2015, it was confirmed that the oil found is of ...

oilnow.gy

Edit: whoops - you were referring to Venezuela's reserves. My mistake!

 

[Rosebud]

View: https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1731184299842392558

If there's one thing the world and South America don't need right now, it's more confusion, more fighting. I hope that common sense prevails and we can work to improve people's lives.

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[poklane]

View: https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1731184299842392558

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Lula's probably confused, doesn't know if he's supposed to support or oppose another Putin fanboy.

 

[NSESN]

View: https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1731184299842392558

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yeah without brazil support Venezuela wont even try this, nice of Lula to actually saying this and not being biased towards venezuela

Lula's probably confused, doesn't know if he's supposed to support or oppose another Putin fanboy.

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oh nice a person that knows 0 about brazil reducing Lula to Putin fanboy because Brazil has economic relations with Russia
I guess Lula is a biden fanboy too

 

[Deleted member 24854]

Lula's probably confused, doesn't know if he's supposed to support or oppose another Putin fanboy.

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Me when I know nothing about Latam politics

 

[Rosebud]

Me when I know nothing about Latam politics

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Happens way too often

 

[gdt]

There is no way this happens. The Ven military must be a wreck right now.

And if they do make a move, US Navy will come knocking. Just a shitty waste of time and resources, and potential for people to get hurt for no actual reason.

 

[g23]

What's the outlook for guyana's HDI and GDP for the future? I've heard rumblings of them becoming the "Dubai" of South America, although I hope most of that extracted wealth actually benefits it's people.

 

[Marossi]

Lula's probably confused, doesn't know if he's supposed to support or oppose another Putin fanboy.

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Lmao fuck off

way too tired of this shit on Era

 

[Tomasoares]

View: https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1731184299842392558

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Lula said in an interview that both Venezuela and Guyana should have common sense to prevent war, as if Guyana should negotiate and concede anything to Venezuela lol

 

[Mobius 1]

Lula's probably confused, doesn't know if he's supposed to support or oppose another Putin fanboy.

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Please, don't.

 

[Rosebud]

Lula said in an interview that both Venezuela and Guyana should have common sense to prevent war, as if Guyana should negotiate and concede anything to Venezuela lol

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Where? You mean this?

Humanity should be afraid of war. It only goes to war when there is a lack of common sense. When the power of the word was exhausted due to the weakness of the conversationalists. A conversation is more worth it than a war

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That's a reach, especially because they are increasing military presence at the border to prevent invasion

"It's as if your neighbor wanted to break into another house using yours. What we cannot allow is that Venezuela, wanting to enter Guyana, uses our territory. We are attentive. Defense will not allow Brazilian territory to be used for another country to get into a fight", said the minister.

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[Tomasoares]

Where? You mean this?

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Only in portuguese, sorry

Lula pede bom senso a Venezuela e Guiana sobre referendo para anexar região guianense | CNN Brasil

Presidente falou a jornalistas em seu último dia na COP28, em Dubai; Maduro promove votação neste domingo (3) para a possibilidade de criar um estado venezuelano em Essequibo

www.cnnbrasil.com.br

"Não se pode ficar pensando em briga. Espero que o bom senso prevaleça, do lado da Venezuela e do lada Guiana", disse.

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English:
"You can't keep thinking about fighting. I hope that common sense prevails, on the side of Venezuela and Guyana," he said.

Putting blame on Guyana as well means that he endorses Maduro's claims despite negating war (which isn't what Maduro actually wants either. A deal with benefits for venezuela over the oil in essequibo without war would be his best outcome)

 

[Rosebud]

Only in portuguese, sorry

Lula pede bom senso a Venezuela e Guiana sobre referendo para anexar região guianense | CNN Brasil

Presidente falou a jornalistas em seu último dia na COP28, em Dubai; Maduro promove votação neste domingo (3) para a possibilidade de criar um estado venezuelano em Essequibo

www.cnnbrasil.com.br

English:
"You can't keep thinking about fighting. I hope that common sense prevails, on the side of Venezuela and Guyana," he said.

Putting blame on Guyana as well means that he endorses Maduro's claims despite negating war (which isn't what Maduro actually wants either. A deal with benefits for venezuela over the oil in essequibo without war would be his best outcome)

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That's where I got my quote lol. Still think it's a reach when they are actively trying to prevent the invasion

 

[Stibbs]

Does the US have a defense pact with Guyana that mandates troop deployment in this type of situation?

 

[mantidor]

this is hopefully just election posturing from Maduro.

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Of course it is.

In other times I would say this was going nowhere, but the world is so messed up right now I just don't know anymore. At least purely from the military point of view this will indeed be resolved swiftly.

 

[Deleted member 24854]

That's where I got my quote lol. Still think it's a reach when they are actively trying to prevent the invasion

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it absolutely is a reach. If the situation becomes extreme, Lula WILL push for negotiations in which Guyana would give something to Venezuela (but that would never involve territory). He'd do whatever to prevent armed conflict near Brazil and is placing Brazil as an arbiter, which he should and he has no choice anyway. But as of right now, even if it's not the fiercest statement, saying he's placing the blame on Guyana is absolutely a reach.

 

[SFLUFAN]

Does the US have a defense pact with Guyana that mandates troop deployment in this type of situation?

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No, but I imagine that the CARICOM nations of which Guyana is a member state will request/demand military intervention.

 

[Buckle]

Lmao fuck off

way too tired of this shit on Era

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If I remember right, Lula is the same politician that supports Russia in Ukraine while their innocent, men, women and children are being slaughtered and having their country burned to the ground.

So I have about less than zero respect for him as someone who has been following the tragedies of that war for awhile now. But thats all continuing/trending towards a derail so I'll stop right there.

 

[ajoshi]

If I remember right, Lula is the same politician that supports Russia in Ukraine while their innocent, men, women and children are being slaughtered and having their country burned to the ground.

So I have about less than zero respect for him as someone who has been following the tragedies of that war for awhile now.

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he's a fence sitter for a few reasons but "supporting" is a stretch and a topic derail imo

 

[Deleted member 24854]

Yeah anyone who doesn't understand Brazil's historical position in international affairs -- which didn't start with Lula -- or thinks he somehow supports Putin should just shut up and stop derailing as they have nothing valuable to comment on this situation.

 

[DarkLegion]

Don't think there's a threat of war here. Pretty positive the CARICOM or the US will step in if anything happens.
There's been tensions with Venezuela for years.

 

[Tomasoares]

That's where I got my quote lol. Still think it's a reach when they are actively trying to prevent the invasion

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Which "common sense" does Guyana need to have? They are doing nothing to Venezuela.

 

[Bluelote]

unless they hold a referendum in Guyana and the result says they want to be a part of Venezuela this seems pretty irrelevant and hostile.

 

[Rosebud]

If I remember right, Lula is the same politician that supports Russia in Ukraine while their innocent, men, women and children are being slaughtered and having their country burned to the ground.

So I have about less than zero respect for him as someone who has been following the tragedies of that war for awhile now. But thats all continuing/trending towards a derail so I'll stop right there.

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No, Brazil always voted against the Ukraine invasion and Lula was meeting the Ukraine president recently. He's a fence sitter in military support for economical reasons

But yeah, this has nothing to do with the Guyana situation so my last post on the subject.

unless they hold a referendum in Guyana and the result says they want to be a part of Venezuela this seems pretty irrelevant and hostile.

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It's ridiculous, a referendum like this has the same value of a online petition

 

[Deleted member 24854]

Which "common sense" does Guyana need to have? They are doing nothing to Venezuela.

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From what I know about the historical Brazilian foreign policy, Lula's personal aspirations and the situation at hand, he's calling Guyana to sit at the table with Venezuela and mediators to sign a new treaty that will override the ones that currently make the region contested.

The dispute dates back to when neither country was independent; the British gradually expanded their borders to the West of river Esequibo until, in 1899, an ad hoc tribunal in Paris declared the territory to be British. But the conditions were proven to be shady and, in 1966 -- the year of independence of the Guyana -- a new agreement recognized the territorial claims of Venezuela, but didn't set up new borders. Venezuela's territorial claim is, in fact, enshrined in their 1999 Constitution.

The ICJ has already endorsed the 1899 borders after being requested to arbiter the dispute in 2020, but Venezuela doesn't recognize their legitimacy over the situation. So while Guyana isn't doing anything towards Venezuela, the ideal outcome would be a peaceful agreement that involves Guyana. That's the context. It's unlikely you can just tell Venezuela to suck it up, because there are competing agreements over the issue.

 

[Tomasoares]

From what I know about the historical Brazilian foreign policy, Lula's personal aspirations and the situation at hand, he's calling Guyana to sit at the table with Venezuela and mediators to sign a new treaty that will override the ones that currently make the region contested.

The dispute dates back to when neither country was independent; the British gradually expanded their borders to the West of river Esequibo until, in 1899, an ad hoc tribunal in Paris declared the territory to be British. But the conditions were proven to be shady and, in 1966 -- the year of independence of the Guyana -- a new agreement recognized the territorial claims of Venezuela, but didn't set up new borders. Venezuela's territorial claim is, in fact, enshrined in their 1999 Constitution.

The ICJ has already endorsed the 1899 borders after being requested to arbiter the dispute in 2020, but Venezuela doesn't recognize their legitimacy over the situation. So while Guyana isn't doing anything towards Venezuela, the ideal outcome would be a peaceful agreement that involves Guyana. That's the context. It's unlikely you can just tell Venezuela to suck it up, because there are competing agreements over the issue.

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Which means Lula's agree that Vanezuela has some legitimacy to their claim. Guyana is a sovereign state and their current borders should be respected.

The only thing Maduro wants here is their share on Oil, and will use war threats to try to get what he wants - which has support from Lula, apparently, since he thinks Guyana should make a deal that benefits Venezuela even when the ICJ stated otherwise already.

 

[Deleted member 24854]

Which means Lula's agree that Vanezuela has some legitimacy to their claim. Guyana is a sovereign state and their current borders should be respected.

The only thing Maduro wants here is their share on Oil, and will use war threats to try to get what he wants - which has support from Lula, apparently, since he thinks Guyana should make a deal that benefits Venezuela even when the ICJ stated otherwise already.

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That's not how anything works. Even Guyana recognizes Venezuela's claim over Esequibo by having signed the 1966 Geneva Agreement. Guyana is a sovereign state, but its borders aren't established in any agreement or treaty that everyone recognizes. Papers do hold value when talking about legitimacy (which is why Maduro is holing a referendum, fake as it might be). Maduro doesn't have Lula's support. Even if a new treaty gives absolutely nothing to Venezuela, Guyana has to be there.

I swear to God you seem to think international relations is like a ResetERA thread in which you can legally infer what a state said from what it didn't say, without any other context besides personal impressions.

 

[Tomasoares]

If you don't see the ambiguity in Lula's speech, well, there's nothing I can do lol

ICL already decided that the status quo should be maintained, there's nothing for Guyana to negotiate there.

 

[Vector]

Wouldn't the UK jump in to defend Guyana if Venezuela invaded? I'm not clear on what security guarantees (if any) Guyana has but the UK had colonial presence in tbs region.

 

[Tomasoares]

Wouldn't the UK jump in to defend Guyana if Venezuela invaded? I'm not clear on what security guarantees (if any) Guyana has but the UK had colonial presence in tbs region.

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I think there are some treaties that might even make Brazil have to defend Guyana

 

[Deleted member 24854]

If you don't see the ambiguity in Lula's speech, well, there's nothing I can do lol

ICL already decided that the status quo should be maintained, there's nothing for Guyana to negotiate there.

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You could do your research, that's what you could do.

Because okay. Say there's nothing for Guyana to negotiate, and Guyana refuses to sign a new treaty even if it ratifies the status quo by both parties. Worst case scenario, what happens next is, Venezuela invades anyway. Decades of sanctions never worked. Recognizing a parallel government didn't work. Now what?

 

[ScoobsJoestar]

If Brazil doesn't help in the invasion (either with troops or allowing access) I honestly don't know how Venezuela could invade. Like, just geographically speaking, those borders are not gonna be nice to cross. Not exactly a lot of roads there.