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US PoliEra 2019 |OT7| It's happening
- Thread starter Ogodei
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Seductive reasoning sounds super sexy.
Also, holding G7 at a trump property might be good for his pocketbook, but generating multitudes of news stories about his corruption (and probably hanging out with Putin!) in the August prior to the presidential election seems like maybe not so smart.
Also, holding G7 at a trump property might be good for his pocketbook, but generating multitudes of news stories about his corruption (and probably hanging out with Putin!) in the August prior to the presidential election seems like maybe not so smart.
Federalism is definitely something that the left has to reexamine. Not only have we on the Left ignored and abandoned local politics, but that mindset has infected our ideology to the point that we forgot how useful states could be to our cause. It's been a crash course in blue states relearning what they can do, whereas red states have had a lot of practice at it.
I love Warren as much as anyone, but should we feel at all confident in voters from WI, PA, MI, FL, etc voting for someone who will be labelled "extreme left" and socialist 24/7 like Warren or Bernie? These voters in swing states have proven that they're gullible as fuck since many went from Obama to Trump somehow so it's not outside the realm of possibility that they fall for conservative propaganda again.
Well, it probably helps that Warren isn't going around calling herself a socialist.
As long as she drops her plans for killing private insurance entirely and "giving illegals healthcare" she'll cruise. Cheaper healthcare and taxing the rich aren't particularly polarizing policies, and hey, maybe her, um, special trade policies will attract the same people.
Y-yes, but given his skepticism of this poll I don't think he sees it that way.
Or maybe median voter theory is absolute bullshit in the first place. You really think Hillary lost those states because swing voters there thought Trump was more moderate than Hillary?
They didn't go from Obama to Trump. They went to Obama when they were excused by him to do so, then back to their regularly scheduled "programming" later. Some went back in 2012, many more in 2016.
Some found that they couldn't believe that the 2016 candidate was so good, telling it "like it is" and all, when other candidates wouldn't or didn't. The rest, well - some of the current candidates are looking to excuse them again, but that isn't going to play nearly as well with the party electorate this time.
Some found that they couldn't believe that the 2016 candidate was so good, telling it "like it is" and all, when other candidates wouldn't or didn't. The rest, well - some of the current candidates are looking to excuse them again, but that isn't going to play nearly as well with the party electorate this time.
Garin-Hart-Yang (Beshear internal pollster, B+ on 538), 501 likely voters from August 19-22, 43% GOP voters and 37% Dem voters, 48% conservative and 22% liberal
Andy Beshear: 48%
Matt Bevin: 39%
John Hicks: 6%
Less explaining methodology and more huffing their own farts but it's something at least.
Just hit em hard with policy. It aint that hard. Bernie did great in WI and MI a few years back. You just gotta tell em how you'll help the region. Jobs, healthcare, education, etc.
Example #112398 that the electorate is fucking stupid:
Trump Seen as Less Conservative Than Prior GOP Candidates
Donald Trump's political views, in the eyes of U.S. registered voters, are the least conservative of GOP presidential candidates in recent history, with less than half of voters (47%) describing him as conservative.
news.gallup.com
So yeah, I can easily believe that Trump won because a couple hundred thousand morons believed he was "moderate".
Bernie did awesome in West Virginia and Wyoming. Do you really think that would have mattered come November?
They'll say Joe Fucking Biden is an "extreme left" socialist that wants open borders and illegals invading the country. They have one playbook. It doesn't matter who is nominated. Being scared of them smearing a candidate as an extreme left socialist should be the literal last fear.
I think there was a tendency of people seeing whatever they wanted in Trump due to him having no policy record (and shamelessly lying). I think his record is going to be a huge handicap this time around. He's not good on defense, and what he's done is not easy to defend anyway.
That's because they're looking at things in party purity terms, not ideological purity. They saw republicans hating on trump, so assumed he must be closer to the center.Example #112398 that the electorate is fucking stupid:
Trump Seen as Less Conservative Than Prior GOP Candidates
Donald Trump's political views, in the eyes of U.S. registered voters, are the least conservative of GOP presidential candidates in recent history, with less than half of voters (47%) describing him as conservative.
It's also the main reason I think Bernie is more electable than Warren.
If we go with Warren as our nominee we are fully committed to the "turning out the base" strategy, and that may not be the wrong strategy. I'm not sure what you can do to win back Obama-Trump voters that won't both alienate your base and result in only a short sighted victory. We need to create more Democrats, these "undecided" voters are too fickle, and there isn't even good evidence that they exist. Here's a lesson that we need to keep in mind from 1996, 2004, and 2012, you can't just run against your opponent, you need to give a reason for people to vote for you. In those three elections the incumbent was vulnerable, but the opposing candidate ran an uninspired race and was banking on the incumbent's low popularity, and it didn't work. Clinton was still fairly popular, but he had weaknesses, and Dole was simply uninspiring, Kerry fucking hurts because Bush was absolutely beatable but we did nothing to inspire our own Democrats, and in 2012 Republican's only had their hatred of Obama to propel them but a candidate who didn't understand the base. Biden is dangerously similar in this regard. Is he really going to be able to propel a surge in party identification, or is his campaign summed up as "I'm not Trump"? If it's the later we're in a lot of trouble.
Warren could, in theory, drive a lot of new Democrats to the party. The fight may be a lot messier, and the talking heads will think we're crazy for not going the "safe" route, but I'm beginning to think that the safe route is actually just a dead end. It's like a cul-de-sac that ends just before the finish line on a parallel road. You're so damn close, but you'll never get across the finish line when you're on that cul-de-sac. Anyone who isn't fully against Trump at this point isn't worth the resources to convert them. We need to find more people who already understand that he's a threat, but may not identify as Democrats for one reason or another. Warren gives us a better shot at them because she has a clearer vision on what being a Democrat is as opposed to Biden's middle of the road nothingness.
No, mostly I think they turned to Trump instead of Hillary because they bought the propaganda hook, line, and sinker that made her seem like the devil. There will be a similarar campaign (though to a lesser degree) against Warren or Bernie.
There are a whole lot of stupid fucking people out there who will fall for it.
Not so sure about that. I fully believe it's because Trump took what people liked and that traditional GOPers wouldn't defend (medicare, medicaid, infrastructure spending) and married it to things enough people hate (immigrants) while throwing out the occasional bone (Trump loves gays!) and his lack of a national profile let people buy into whatever component they liked best, while Hillary was the liberal everyone loved to hate.
Bernie is a known quantity and has been for decades. Trump was an unknown that people projected their own desires onto - as he's governed people have seen him as increasingly hard-right conservative and it's tanked his approvals.
Don't have any faith in the voting public.
The really important takeaway of this to me, beyond the need to balance federalism and states in order to appeal to the largest group and determining which issues are helped or hindered by either, is to realize how little ideology matters in all of this.
Ideologically, conservatives are with states. Until they aren't. The second they attain federal power they are all for using that shit to hinder social rights, voting rights, promote economically dubious principles, and enact authoritarian policies.
Ideologically, progressives move at the federal level. Until they don't. The second they lose federal power they attempt to shore up states that are willing to go against the conservative federal grain.
But generally people who fall into either of these umbrella camps don't shift they're terminology or stated beliefs much; they simply change their actions. It's an important lesson in identity politics and ideology to know to look beyond the stated into the actual actions, and this applies to so much of politics, religion, etc. yet even seasoned people here fall into the trap of listening to the words and not the meaning.
I'm not a big sports guy outside of the MLB, and even then only for my team, but 30 for 30 does great work and I didn't even know about their podcast. Thanks for mentioning it so I can seek it out.
While I don't like using it as a kneejerk response because there are definitely differences in how much those labels can stick depending on the time and candidate, there is a lot of truth to the idea that ANY Dem candidate will be tarred and feather as the "extreme left". Don't know how long you've been around but I've seen it done to Bill and Hillary, Kerry, Gore, and Obama and their fellow competitors in primaries.
Sometimes it sticks, like with Kerry and Hillary. Sometimes it doesn't, like with Bill. And sometimes it sticks with very particular portions of voters, like it did for Obama. You can plan around it a bit, and certainly take actions to diminish it (Bill's Sista Soulja moment, Obama with Rev. Wright), but it's always going to be there to an extent.
Are you implying that he shouldnt try? I mean, didnt yall ho off on Bernie for "ignoring the South" based on that logic?
I mean, it's the anti-globalism/trade policy, not touching Medicare, the prison reform, and likely his lip-service to getting troops out of Afghanistan and Syria.Example #112398 that the electorate is fucking stupid:
Trump Seen as Less Conservative Than Prior GOP Candidates
Donald Trump's political views, in the eyes of U.S. registered voters, are the least conservative of GOP presidential candidates in recent history, with less than half of voters (47%) describing him as conservative.
So yeah, I can easily believe that Trump won because a couple hundred thousand morons believed he was "moderate".
His worst stances manifest in intangibles and subjectives, mainly his complete disdain of oversight, his subverting the duty of congress using so many acting cabinet members, his legally indefensible edicts, and, of course, the racism.
The big exception is his immigration policy and I'm guessing those voters aren't gonna lose sleep over it.
It's a whole lot harder for them to define you when you're out there defining yourself.
Instead of defending herself, hillary hid from the press in fear, letting attacks on her largely go unchallenged. And now we have Biden's staff saying they want to limit his exposure too, which will once again will let Republican's framing of Biden be the only frame people see.
morning consult releases a poll every Monday night, that should be interesting
Monmouth may be an outlier but I think it's clear that Biden could get totally routed in Iowa/NH. He's not done yet, but goddamn is he vulnerable.
maybe the explanation for the drop is that people are starting to pay attention to the race and are noticing how weak of a campaigner Biden is.
Monmouth may be an outlier but I think it's clear that Biden could get totally routed in Iowa/NH. He's not done yet, but goddamn is he vulnerable.
maybe the explanation for the drop is that people are starting to pay attention to the race and are noticing how weak of a campaigner Biden is.
He campaigned like a far-right demagogue since day 1 with clear-as-day racial appeals. The idiots who believed he wasn't socially conservative are, well, idiots, yet the public somehow didn't see him as *that* socially conservative.
Not being a known quantity does wonders.
We're going to live in a 2020 where KY has a D governor and MA has an R.
He means primary performance isn't really indicative of whether you'll win the state in the general. But I think both Warren and Sanders could make winnable midwest arguments anyway.
Yes, anyone who runs as a Democrat and tries to win the electoral college votes in Wyoming and West Virginia should be summarily ignored. He didn't even try there in 2016 during the primary, either, because one was a caucus (which he tended to win anyway) and the other literally thought Hillary was the devil and he was the only alternative.
Awesome post.
I've been following politics for awhile and I'd like to think I had a decent grasp on civics, but this is to true. I've learned a lot in just the past 3 years and I agree it's scary to discover how a lot of our government is held together by scotch tape and gentlemen agreements. We're learning our country and government aren't "dictator-proof" like we thought and the guard rails between us and a Banana Republic isn't as big or strong as we had believed.
The only saving grace has been Trump's utter incompetence and many of the idiots he surrounded himself in the administration. But that's why Bill Barr has scared me the most because he has no shame like a Trumper but he actually has guile and experience to cleverly hollow-out the country from within. The Mueller Report was essentially manipulated and then destroyed by Bill Barr in just a month.
We need to make more "norms" into law so when Trump 2.0 shows up in a decade or so with upgraded software, we can be better equipped. Unfortunately I have a feeling people like Biden and Warren will just want to"turn the page" once they get in office and the scotch tape will remain.
"The South" in question is where the majority of black voters are and have their say in the primary. In the GE I don't expect to see D candidates in Alabama, S. Carolina etc, but for the primary it's essential to speak the coalition of black voters that live there.
Neither am I. But if the story is compelling and the doc well composed, any subject can be arresting. The best doc is 9.79, which is about the 100m sprint.
Someone must have retweeted this pod because I haven't been following it until now, but I do have a soft spot for the NBA.
Louisiana and North Carolina may very well both have Democratic governors as well.
I really need to see Biden drop out if he gets hammered in Iowa.
Fiscally liberal will provide cover to socially conservative. I assume because white (male) voters will be the last to feel the affects of the latter.
Also...like, this is one poll which appears to be a major outlier with a smallish sample size. Maybe we should like pump the breaks a tad?
Hillary was screwed either way, and that was her fatal flaw as a candidate. Sit back and try to not engage with the media was a bad idea, but fighting back also would have been problematic. Everything was bait and a trap, the Republicans have her number and there's no way around that. In so many ways outside of her control she had lost control of the narrative so long ago that she can never get it back.
In retirement she should just embrace being a black hat, she's smarter than 99% of the Republicans, so she has nothing to lose.
The reason to campaign in places you have no chance of winning is just a branding move. He won't win West Virginia but people who live in rural areas like West Virginia located in swing states will like the fact that he goes to places like that.
Trump went to rural areas in Washington state. Again as a branding move
Trump went to rural areas in Washington state. Again as a branding move
Wisconsin, absolutely at least for Sanders. He absolutely trounced Clinton in the 16 primaries by a whole 13 percent. Clinton is REALLY not liked in the Midwest.
Potential liability was 17B if I recall. They were ordered to pay 500M.
I guess what I'm mostly afraid of is irresponsible mainstream media outlets like CNN, NYT and the like essentially lending Trump a huge helping hand by painting the progressives' policies as extreme and totally unrealistic.
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