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chris 1515

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Oct 27, 2017
7,080
Barcelona Spain
So that people can clearly measure the extent of the day one PS5/PC single player danger with figures. The worst idea with raising prices of games again. First GAAS are a very different because of MTX, cheaper cost of entry, much cheaper initial budget and recurring revenue. This is not true for all GAAS but goes with most expensive AAA production value in a GAAS is a very bad idea like for Suicide squad where the cost justify the 70 dollars price tag.

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There was a mid gen report but hard to find and we saw that basically day one PS4 day one players had spent an average of 800 dollars* on average on hardware. If the consoles and the PSVR/PSVR 2 are not or barely profitable, the accessories are high margin

When a player leaves the PS4/PS5 ecosystem to go to the PC ecosystem, here is the impact...

  • Hardware is impacted both in terms of turnover and profitability on accessories.
  • Physical sales of first and third party games
  • First and third party digital game sales
  • Microtransactions and DLC of third party title
  • Network Services PS plus Essential, Extra or Premium

In the most extreme cases Sony may lose a buyer of PS5, PS5 Pro, PSVR 2, Two dualsenses for example and a Dualsense edge, a PS Portal and perhaps a possible PS5 portable, a generation of PS plus extra subscription or premium and a person who buys at least one or two games per month in addition... If a PS5 player ends up like the PS4 with an average of 11/12 games it's horrible especially since it's those who spend the most who will leave if 10% of the players leave it could be 30% of the turnover lost it's not proportional, it's a random number to illustrate my point...

We have figure of RE 4 remake

From a steam estimate we know it is 1.2/1.5 millions sales on PC first year.

And we know from The Witcher 3 sales first few years were bigger on consoles than PC. Sony operating margin is better on PS5 because thy don't need to pay 30% to Steam and PC player pay games at a lower price.

And all this for in the best case scenario without switching from PS5 player to PC the gain will probably be a x3 of PC players (3%) against jeopardizing a significant part of 92% of the PS revenue (33% + 6% +20% +24% + 9%). Executives have to incompetent to do this. SIE is a company not our friend.

When the percentage of other software increases beyond PC-only players and Sony will start to lose is most valuable PS player the loss is proportional to the average revenue and profit the user

*I am no longer sure of the exact figure to be validated when someone find the documents. In this report we can clearly see the decreasing number of games per player the further we go from hardcore to casual, it's full of super interesting figures...
 

jon bones

Member
Oct 25, 2017
26,718
NYC
User warned: Antagonising other members
i hope you guys put this much effort into your careers also
 

GhostTrick

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,684
"So that people can clearly measure the extent of the day one PS5/PC single player danger with figures."
"DANGER"

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Xiofire

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,390
While you hypothesise that people would just....not buy PS hardware if they release day and date on PC, if the accessories also work on their PC why wouldn't they still buy them?

You're opening up to a much bigger market that you can sell software AND hardware to. I use the DualSense while playing Helldivers 2 and all other Sony first party titles on PC.

There will always be a casual market that don't want to game on PC, but there are also a crowd of people that will only ever game on PC. Why limit yourself to one crowd? Just put all software everywhere, and make your hardware accessories as platform agnostic as possible.

To label selling more software more places as a "danger" is pretty funny though.
 

Lashley

<<Tag Here>>
Member
Oct 25, 2017
62,235
We heard this exact stuff when "It was just horizon coming, don't expect any other games" and then again when it was "Just their old titles that didn't sell, don't expect any day 1 games" then Helldivers arrived day 1, alongside their future GaaS.

It's the same tired argument that day 1 would mean every console owner would suddenly buy a PC, it isn't realistic. Adding a pie chart doesn't make it so.
 

Menchin

Member
Apr 1, 2019
5,549
I don't know that the overlap between people who are all-in on the Playstation ecosystem and also have a PC that can meet or exceed the PS5 in games and would also just up and abandon their consoles and accessories the second day and date PC releases start is that big

People who just play exclusives are already not profitable customers
 

Androidsleeps

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,836
It's always exciting when Sony announces a PC port of one of their games, I go straight to the PS Blog to read the comments and laugh.

People who just play exclusives are already not profitable customers
Exactly.
Even looking at the pie chart there, Add-on content is almost as big as physical+digital software, highly unlikely that most who use their Playstation as exclusive machine are spending much in MTX & dlcs.
 

Noppie

Member
Oct 27, 2017
14,116
This is actually a pretty informative post though…

Agreeing with it or not is another story
Is it when it's mostly speculative numbers, assuming the worst without proof and the report OP is referring to...completely missing?

There is no information here, it's all doomsday 'PS players will jump ship to pc' speculation.
 

CosmiKu

Account pending deletion
Banned
Jul 9, 2023
1,131
Wales
The implication that a significant portion of people would sell their PS5 and get a PC and thus not participate in Sony's ecosystem is flawed. The number likely to do this on the basis of a newfound lack of exclusivity is minuscule.

PS5 satisfies a different kind of customer than the kind who buys a gaming PC for those same games.

The reality is anyone who would've moved from PS5 to PC has already done so, and only keeps a PS5 around for Sony's exclusives if they keep it at all. To be frank, the exclusives are so few and far between that the console isn't even worth hanging on to if you're not playing third party games on it.

I'm willing to bet most PC + console owners don't buy online subscriptions on console, or third party games on console, or many peripherals for said console. Sony's subsidising high price hardware for them to not meaningfully engage in the ecosystem.
 

dude

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,779
Tel Aviv
This is actually a pretty informative post though…

Agreeing with it or not is another story
1. It assumes there is a big overlap between PS5 and PC users, or that PS5 users are likely to switch to PC if games come day 1, without providing data to support this assumption.
2. It make major assumptions on the average PS5 user based on PS4 users
3. It uses sales rather than profits
4. It uses only 2 examples (The Witcher 3, RE4) to extrapolate PC sales

It's just console warring with a lot of words and a single graph.
 

aerts1js

Member
May 11, 2019
1,611
So we're making fun of posts that are informative now.. okay got it.

OP: Nerd!!!!!!! homersimpson.gif
 

YozoraXV

Member
Oct 30, 2017
3,387
It's going to happen, if it doesn't how do you expect Sony to increase their razor thin profit margins? Shut down studios? Layoffs? Making ND/SSM GaaS Studios?

Something has to change.
 

Babu93

Member
Feb 9, 2021
2,585
I mean... it's probably going to happen eventually. Probably best just to get used to the idea than freak out about it.
 

Masagiwa

Member
Jan 27, 2018
10,026
I think their business model might change the further we move towards the all-digital future. They have already taken a half-step there.
 

bitcloudrzr

Member
May 31, 2018
16,415
PS5 satisfies a different kind of customer than the kind who buys a gaming PC for those same games.

The reality is anyone who would've moved from PS5 to PC has already done so, and only keeps a PS5 around for Sony's exclusives if they keep it at all. To be frank, the exclusives are so few and far between that the console isn't even worth hanging on to for them anymore.

I'm willing to bet most PC + console owners don't buy online subscriptions on console, or third party games on console, or many peripherals for said console. Sony's subsidising high price hardware for them to not meaningfully engage in the ecosystem.
There is actual data that supports why the overlapping customer is important versus what you are assuming.
 

pswii60

Member
Oct 27, 2017
27,512
The Milky Way
That chart has been posted time and time again.

It's just revenue.

There's barely any margin, if any at all, on hardware.

The third party revenue, most of that is digital and they have to give 70% of it to the publisher.

Sony is under margin pressure not revenue pressure.

Sure there will be some people who no longer buy a console and just play on PC. On the flipside, they get to diversify sell millions more copies of their first party games, likely far outweighing any impact on their install base. But that's the calculation they need to do.

Fact is, game budgets keep increasing, and the install base doesn't. So the return on investment for exclusives keeps getting worse.
 
Last edited:
Oct 25, 2017
57,786
I thought this was like a legitimate article from a Sony interview or something when I saw the title. Let them worry about their finances?
 

GhostTrick

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,684
So we're making fun of posts that are informative now.. okay got it.

OP: Nerd!!!!!!! homersimpson.gif


It's not even informative. It's not because you put a pie chart that suddenly, it becomes informative.
It is lacking sources, making false equivalencies, throwing baseless numbers without backing them up even and comes from the premise (or the fears, according to the words used by the OP) that PS users will become PC users because of that.

There are a lot of issues you can see at a first glance:
"From a steam estimate we know it is 1.2/1.5 millions sales on PC first year."
From whom ? Where ?

"And we know from The Witcher 3 sales first few years were bigger on consoles than PC."
Then again... From whom ? Where ?
Also "bigger on consoles" means shit. Consoles isn't a single platform. Why the heck would you combine PS and Xbox sales, which not only are two different platforms, which means two different versions... but also competitors ?

The whole thing is basically OP saying
"If Sony does that, they'll lose all their precious PS owners which will move to PC and they'll make less money. And it's not worth it because PC sells less anyway".

But hey, there's a pie chart I guess.
 

eonden

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,316
We heard this exact stuff when "It was just horizon coming, don't expect any other games" and then again when it was "Just their old titles that didn't sell, don't expect any day 1 games" then Helldivers arrived day 1, alongside their future GaaS.

It's the same tired argument that day 1 would mean every console owner would suddenly buy a PC, it isn't realistic. Adding a pie chart doesn't make it so.
The pie chart is a bit meaningless because Sony could care less about revenue and more about profit. Sony cares less about hardcore fans that only buy the exclusives and the console at launch than those that buy the console when it is more profitable, have a work sub and just play EA Club all day with mtx. The fact that add-on sales is basically the same as Digital and Physical sales in terms of revenue is quite telling of them making probably more money through those users in general lol.
 

T0kenAussie

Member
Jan 15, 2020
5,364
you can choose to believe this but the fact is the console-under-a-tv market is stagnant and may even start declining the end of this gen as the usual cheap slim consoles aren't coming to flood the market

You either choose to cut headcount, projects in dev to maintain better margins or you choose to expand your potential audience through day and date on pc where your marketing beats would be doubly effective.

Also the philosophy of the box being the thing that makes games big is a dying one. The biggest games these days don't have borders (or very limited ones).

We are entering the age of the franchise in gaming imo just like movies went from marketing action stars in the 90s to high quality franchises in the 2000s. IPs are going to be what you market to new entrants in your ecosystem because they are fickle and expect things to be device agnostic
 

Kyougar

Cute Animal Whisperer
Member
Nov 3, 2017
9,616
Schrödingers Console Userbase
- people will abandon consoles and flee to PC if Exclusives come day1 to PC
- console players will never go to PC because of comfy couch gaming
 

Gavalanche

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 21, 2021
20,724
The implication that a significant portion of people would sell their PS5 and get a PC and thus not participate in Sony's ecosystem is flawed. The number likely to do this on the basis of a newfound lack of exclusivity is minuscule.

PS5 satisfies a different kind of customer than the kind who buys a gaming PC for those same games.

The reality is anyone who would've moved from PS5 to PC has already done so, and only keeps a PS5 around for Sony's exclusives if they keep it at all. To be frank, the exclusives are so few and far between that the console isn't even worth hanging on to if you're not playing third party games on it.

I'm willing to bet most PC + console owners don't buy online subscriptions on console, or third party games on console, or many peripherals for said console. Sony's subsidising high price hardware for them to not meaningfully engage in the ecosystem.

If the number is miniscule, why doesn't Sony do it then? Or heck even Nintendo?

I think those who would stop buying consoles is higher than we think. I have argued constantly it is one of the reasons why xbox is doing not as well, especially in PC centric areas like some European Countries.
 

meenseen84

Member
Feb 15, 2018
2,083
Minneapolis
According to the leaked slides, Sony's marketing budget is almost equal to the development cost for its games. This means that releasing the game on PC after a year would require another round of marketing spending, which would negate the initial marketing advantage. This seems like a wasteful strategy to market the game twice. Moreover, many PC gamers might anticipate the game's arrival and delay their purchase, but they might lose interest if the game's hype has faded by then.
 

Starlatine

533.489 paid youtubers cant be wrong
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Oct 28, 2017
31,107
If the number is miniscule, why doesn't Sony do it then? Or heck even Nintendo?

I think those who would stop buying consoles is higher than we think. I have argued constantly it is one of the reasons why xbox is doing not as well, especially in PC centric areas like some European Countries.

You would have a point if xbox ever done well on those countries and then lost ground after their pc initiative
Which they didnt. They never had any ground to begin with.
 

Gavalanche

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 21, 2021
20,724
You would have a point if xbox ever done well on those countries and then lost ground after their pc initiative
Which they didnt. They never had any ground to begin with.

Well, they have gotten worst. So any sort of gains they have gone have evaporated, and it creates a ceiling as well. They will never get any sort of console traction in those countries again, regardless of how well the xbox actually does.
 

Starlatine

533.489 paid youtubers cant be wrong
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
31,107
Well, they have gotten worst. So any sort of gains they have gone have evaporated, and it creates a ceiling as well. They will never get any sort of console traction in those countries again, regardless of how well the xbox actually does.

Thats due to a lot of combined factors to which inexistant marketing and poor localization efforts are far more to blame than "selling on pc"
 
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