User banned (1 month): Antagonizing another member. Multiple prior bans for hostility.
Matt.
When I look at some of my bookmarks, it is amazing how much he got wrong. Got some right, but goodness gracious, a tonne wrong. Including this deal.
Matt.
Matt.
When I look at some of my bookmarks, it is amazing how much he got wrong. Got some right, but goodness gracious, a tonne wrong. Including this deal.
Regulators look at the current market to inform their decisions. The current market includes last gen consoles due to cross-gen games still releasing on them two years into the "new" gen.Crossgen is at most a very short-term issue. I don't think it'll be looked at when talking about mid-long term.
Big tech especially the software side are well paid. Unions will push wage up, but that does a lot, not just for Microsoft.Being the first big tech company to allow unions rather then fight them is going to get them in more good graces than anything else.
Same. Currently following this and the Xbox OT.Ah.
I'm glad that I mostly keep myself engaged with a few topics of interest. More focused and more informed that way.
yeah. very true.Ah. That was a silly prediction.
I'm glad that I mostly keep myself engaged with a few topics of interest. More focused and more informed that way.
More Merger news, interesting, haven't caught up
View: https://twitter.com/deeketweak/status/1610780101326823424?s=46&t=uFVG4rTXmSQyIBmUsvk74g
Crossgen is at most a very short-term issue. I don't think it'll be looked at when talking about mid-long term.
Did he leave era?Matt.
When I look at some of my bookmarks, it is amazing how much he got wrong. Got some right, but goodness gracious, a tonne wrong. Including this deal.
Does "everyone"? MS is investing more money than the whole gaming console market size 2022 just to get a few percent market share?And the one thing everyone largely agrees on is that this purchase isn't likely to result in a lot of console switchers
They don't need people to switch. They only need them to subscribe to gamepass.Does "everyone"? MS is investing more money than the whole gaming console market size 2022 just to get a few percent market share?
It's weird how the narrative changes with every new piece of news. Before Microsoft's PR blitz with the unionization and 10 year deals, we all thought that the FTC was going to block. But that PR blitz gave us pause.The only thing giving me pause is that, just before FTC decided to stand against the move, there was, as now, a number of very big moves/statements that gave the impression that there is no way this could not go through:
The only thing giving me pause is that, just before FTC decided to stand against the move, there was, as now, a number of very big moves/statements that gave the impression that there is no way this could not go through:
Nintendo signing a 10 year deal for COD
Steam confirming that they were offered a contract but didn't sign it because MS as so trustworthy
Unions coming out fighting in support of the deal
etc.
I feel like we're getting these again.
CMA stating 75% of the consulted public supports the move
CMSA publishing very supportive statements from prominent market participants
MS waves through first union within it's staffing team in Zenimax
The sheer weight of statements from prominent gaming marketplace participants supporting this deal is overwhelming, really.
The only people not wanting it are Sony themselves and those who knee jerk into "big tech/company = bad".
Yeah this seems likely.It's weird how the narrative changes with every new piece of news. Before Microsoft's PR blitz with the unionization and 10 year deals, we all thought that the FTC was going to block. But that PR blitz gave us pause.
Now this news about FTC willing to accept concessions is giving us reason to believe that the FTC might accept if the other regulatory bodies accept.
I sincerely doubt it. Everything we know about the FTC and it's current strategies/ideological leanings leads me to believe that they're going to want to take this to court.
Lina Khan is okay with losing, because it will feed into the narrative she is trying to build. The narrative that the FTC doesn't have enough power to do what it believes to be right.
Well MS and ABK have lots of supporters for the deal, don't think holding out tactic will success for this case.All these regulators are playing "wait and see" games here.
They might expect MS and ABK to abandon the deal before they make the final call, so technically they do not block the deal.
Lina Khan is okay with losing, because it will feed into the narrative she is trying to build. The narrative that the FTC doesn't have enough power to do what it believes to be right.
Well this delay sucks for us who are hungry for news ahahaha.The CMA needs more time: final report delayed to 26 April 2023.
Provisional findings delayed to late January / early February 2023.
There are special reasons why the final report cannot be prepared and published within the reference period:
- The scope and complexity of the investigation
- The need to consider a large volume of evidence as well as main party and third party submissions
- The necessity to allow sufficient time to take full and proper account of comments that will be received in response to the Inquiry Group's provisional findings in due course and to reach a fully reasoned final decision in the statutory timeframe
It's interesting how this changes things. The assumption was that depending on the CMA's provisional findings, Microsoft could abandon the deal and save $500 million. This delay kind of takes that strategy away from Microsoft. Looks like they'll be on the line for $2.5b until the next increase right?
That's a risk. But it feels like the FTC isn't concerned about how their current strategies affect them in the future.The narrative could end up "FTC just keep wasting people's taxes"
So basically if Microsoft doesn't want to pay the $3b, they'll have to judge the likelihood of the deal passing based on CMA's provisional findings. Which is what I thought they would do, but before January 18th (before the next increase). To save even more (If CMA's provisional findings were looking like a deal killer).Yes, but now that the final report from the CMA comes after the second extension (April 18th), or this goes through or they'll have to pay the 3 billion (unless the provisional findings in late January/early February are very negative and they pull out by then).
MS is investing mainly to get a real foothold in the $100B+ mobile games market. Forest for the trees with consoles.Does "everyone"? MS is investing more money than the whole gaming console market size 2022 just to get a few percent market share?
So basically if Microsoft doesn't want to pay the $3b, they'll have to judge the likelihood of the deal passing based on CMA's provisional findings. Which is what I thought they would do, but before January 18th (before the next increase). To save even more (If CMA's provisional findings were looking like a deal killer).
Constant delays just demonstrates that the regulators truly do understand the modern games industry.
Constant delays just demonstrates that the regulators truly do understand the modern games industry.
Seems like the kind of update that both sides will be able to twist to feed their narrative.Is it bad news for Microsoft these delays? Or is something normal considering how big is this acquisition?
Thanks in advance.
As long as Xcloud isn't working flawlessly many people will have to switch to use GP, since most people don't invest in multiple substitutional ecosystems.They don't need people to switch. They only need them to subscribe to gamepass.
Hm. I'm trying not to read too much into this (but, of course, I am), but this puts me in two minds. This could just be CMA doing their due diligence and really vetting everything as they are wont to do on a thing of this size (which is good regardless). But part of me thinks that this bodes poorly for the idea that CMA would be approving without concessions - delay would seem to suggest they were not close to that point, which is pretty far. BUT... on the other hand, it IS a pretty far point to get to. So, it only makes sense that they would make sure to dot their j's and cross their x's to make sure that they address as many potential complaints and criticisms against them as possible if they WERE going to approve without concessions.The CMA needs more time: final report delayed to 26 April 2023.
Provisional findings delayed to late January / early February 2023.
There are special reasons why the final report cannot be prepared and published within the reference period:
- The scope and complexity of the investigation
- The need to consider a large volume of evidence as well as main party and third party submissions
- The necessity to allow sufficient time to take full and proper account of comments that will be received in response to the Inquiry Group's provisional findings in due course and to reach a fully reasoned final decision in the statutory timeframe
Now the EC, CMA and even SAMR in China are very much aligned in timing for the final decision: April 11th for the EC / April 26th for the CMA / April-May 2023 for SAMR.
In the sense that EC being negative bodes poorly for CMA, yea. (And who knows, maybe CMA just wants the EC to go first anyway - which is funny, since MS was hoping that EC would go first all along by kinda jumping the gun. And we're kinda circling back there again haha.) But I still think it comes down to the CMA at the end of the day, regardless.Looking at Ida's time table late January for the EC stands out as the canary in the coalmine for Microsoft if they cannot play ball with the EC the deal becomes so much more untenable.
Yea, surprising right? We do get a little bit from the CMA that basically goes "well, there COULD be more switchers than MS says". But that's about as far as it goes. And it's a roundabout way of arguing that Sony stands to actually suffer some harm from this (and again, is why people were criticizing them for protecting Sony, rather than the industry). But importantly, it was NOT used as a springboard to argue that MS would get a dominant market share or even try to significantly increase its market share. The only argument was that enough people might switch that PlayStation would feel it, which is a fundamentally different argument from "MS is banking on a ton of console switchers to make this acquisition make sense".Does "everyone"? MS is investing more money than the whole gaming console market size 2022 just to get a few percent market share?
Too funny LOL.Constant delays just demonstrate that the regulators truly do understand the modern games industry.
Exactly, due diligence is great for Microsoft.I think that the delay is a good sign for MS. The CMA could have followed the FTC but they are taking their time and not rushing the process.
Most games of note see extremely long tails on PC, and that's something we'll see more on consoles given that the MO now is to not reset every generation (assuming in these examples that the games could release on Xbox or the next Switch). Horizon: Zero Dawn has over 10% of its sales on PC (>2.3m sold on PC, >20m sold overall). Another solid example is Persona 5: Royal, which sold >1m units with the new releases (Xbox, Switch, PC, PS5) which is almost 30% of the overall >3.3m sales. Granted we don't know how much of that was on PS5, but I think it shows that even after years of exclusivity games of note will sell significant amounts of units when ported.2025 then, yea these Sony deals are crazy lol. Honestly anything more than a year you may as well lock it up fully at that point, but I bet its nearly just as lucrative. I bet the math shows that at that point you've received 99% of the sales you would've received if you just made it fully exclusive.
Has there been a public confirmation that Nintendo has signed? The only public comment from Nintendo I know is "yes, a contract was presented [to us]".
Haven't they sold like half what PlayStation has sold?Makes me wonder even more if MS' competitiveness this generation, even considering their competitor's side deals, is a factor in this delay.
Numbers aren't backing up an inability to compete.
Constant delays just demonstrate that the regulators truly do understand the modern games industry.
Nintendo is affirming the contract to press in that link. You're mistranslating.Has there been a public confirmation that Nintendo has signed? The only public comment from Nintendo I know is "yes, a contract was presented [to us]".